Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Self-management associated with fatigue in patients with advanced cancer : a prospective longitudinal study

Cancer-related fatigue is one of the most distressing symptoms experienced by patients with advanced cancer. This doctoral study identified that patients with advanced cancer commonly use a number of self-management strategies in response to fatigue, although these strategies had varying levels of effectiveness in reducing the symptom. The study identified that enhancing self-efficacy and managing depressive symptoms are important factors to consider in the design of future interventions to support fatigue self-management.

An on-line secure e-passport protocol

The first generation e-passport standard is proven to be insecure and prone to various attacks. To strengthen, the European Union (EU) has proposed an Extended Access Control (EAC) mechanism for e-passports that intends to provide better security in protecting biometric information of the e-passport bearer. But, our analysis shows, the EU proposal fails to address many security and privacy issues that are paramount in implementing a strong security mechanism. In this paper we propose an on-line authentication mechanism for electronic passports that addresses the weakness in existing implementations, of both The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and EU. Our proposal utilises ICAO PKI implementation, thus requiring very little modifications to the existing infrastructure which is already well established.

Periprosthetic fracture torque for short versus standard cemented hip stems : an experimental in vitro study

In an attempt to preserve proximal femoral bone stock and achieve a better fit in smaller femora, especially in the Asian population, several new shorter stem designs have become available. We investigated the torque to periprosthetic femoral fracture of the Exeter short stem compared with the conventional length Exeter stem in a Sawbone model. 42 stems; 21 shorter and 21 conventional stems both with three different offsets were cemented in a composite Sawbone model and torqued to fracture. Results showed that Sawbone femurs break at a statistically significantly lower torque to failure with a shorter compared to conventional length Exeter stem of the same offset. Both standard and short stem designs are safe to use as the torque to failure is 7-10 times that seen in activities of daily living.

Modelling the economic benefits of gold standard care for chronic wounds in a community setting

Chronic leg ulcers are costly to manage for health service providers. Although evidence-based care leads to improved healing rates and reduced costs, a significant evidence-practice gap is known to exist. Lack of access to specialist skills in wound care is one reason suggested for this gap. The aim of this study was to model the change to total costs and health outcomes under two versions of health services for patients with leg ulcers: routine health services for community-living patients; and care provided by specialist wound clinics. Mean weekly treatment and health services costs were estimated from participants’ data (n=70) for the twelve months prior to their entry to a study specialist wound clinic, and prospectively for 24 weeks after entry. For the retrospective phase mean weekly costs of care were $AU130.30 (SD $12.64) and these fell to $AU53.32 (SD $6.47) for the prospective phase. Analysis at a population level suggests if 10,000 individuals receive 12 weeks of specialist evidence-based care, the cost savings are likely to be AU$9,238,800. Significant savings could be made by the adoption of evidence-based care such as that provided by the community and outpatient specialist wound clinics in this study.

The identification and rapid extraction of hydrocarbons from Nicotiana glauca : A potential advanced renewable biofuel source

Declining fossil fuels reserves, a need for increased energy security and concerns over carbon emissions from fossil fuel use are the global drivers for alternative, renewable, biosources of fuels and chemicals. In the present study the identification of long chain (C29–C33) saturated hydrocarbons from Nicotiana glauca leaves is reported. The occurrence of these hydrocarbons was detected by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC–MS) and identification confirmed by comparison of physico-chemical properties displayed by the authentic standards available. A simple, robust procedure was developed to enable the generation of an extract containing a high percentage of hydrocarbons (6.3% by weight of dried leaf material) higher than previous reports in other higher plant species consequently, it is concluded that N. glauca could be a crop of greater importance than previously recognised for biofuel production. The plant can be grown on marginal lands, negating the need to compete with food crops or farmland, and the hydrocarbon extract can be produced in a non-invasive manner, leaving remaining biomass intact for bioethanol production and the generation of valuable co-products.

Bisphenol A degradation enhanced by air bubbles via advanced oxidation using in situ generated ferrous ions from nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials

Novel nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials prepared by evaporative and centrifuge methods are tested for the degradation of bisphenol A in an aqueous medium. A systematic study is presented which showed that nano zero-valent iron material has little effect on bisphenol A degradation. When hydrogen peroxide was added to initiate the reaction, some percentage of bisphenol A removal (∼20%) was achieved; however, with the aid of air bubbles, the percentage removal can be significantly increased to ∼99%. Compared with pristine nano zero-valent iron and commercial iron powder, nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composite materials have much higher reactivity towards bisphenol A and these materials are superior as they have little impact on the solution pH. However, for pristine nano zero-valent iron, it is difficult to maintain the reaction system at a favourable low pH which is a key factor in maintaining high bisphenol A removal. All materials were characterized by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, elemental analysis, transmission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The optimum conditions were obtained based on a series of batch experiments. This study has extended the application of nano zero-valent iron/palygorskite composites as effective materials for the removal of phenolic compounds from the environment.

Assessment of driving-related performance in chronic whiplash using an advanced driving simulator

Driving is often nominated as problematic by individuals with chronic whiplash associated disorders (WAD), yet driving-related performance has not been evaluated objectively. The purpose of this study was to test driving-related performance in persons with chronic WAD against healthy controls of similar age, gender and driving experience to determine if driving-related performance in the WAD group was sufficiently impaired to recommend fitness to drive assessment. Driving-related performance was assessed using an advanced driving simulator during three driving scenarios; freeway, residential and a central business district (CBD). Total driving duration was approximately 15 min. Five driving tasks which could cause a collision (critical events) were included in the scenarios. In addition, the effect of divided attention (identify red dots projected onto side or rear view mirrors) was assessed three times in each scenario. Driving performance was measured using the simulator performance index (SPI) which is calculated from 12 measures. z-Scores for all SPI measures were calculated for each WAD subject based on mean values of the control subjects. The z-scores were then averaged for the WAD group. A z-score of ≤−2 indicated a driving failing grade in the simulator. The number of collisions over the five critical events was compared between the WAD and control groups as was reaction time and missed response ratio in identifying the red dots. Seventeen WAD and 26 control subjects commenced the driving assessment. Demographic data were comparable between the groups. All subjects completed the freeway scenario but four withdrew during the residential and eight during the CBD scenario because of motion sickness. All scenarios were completed by 14 WAD and 17 control subjects. Mean z-scores for the SPI over the three scenarios was statistically lower in the WAD group (−0.3 ± 0.3; P < 0.05) but the score was not below the cut-off point for safe driving. There were no differences in the reaction time and missed response ratio in divided attention tasks between the groups (All P > 0.05). Assessment of driving in an advanced driving simulator for approximately 15 min revealed that driving-related performance in chronic WAD was not sufficiently impaired to recommend the need for fitness to drive assessment.

Advanced pubertal status at age 11 and lower physical activity in adolescent girls

Objective To examine the relationship between pubertal timing and physical activity. Study design A longitudinal sample of 143 adolescent girls was assessed at ages 11 and 13 years. Girls' pubertal development was assessed at age 11 with blood estradiol levels, Tanner breast staging criteria, and parental report of pubertal development. Girls were classified as early maturers (n = 41) or later maturers (n = 102) on the basis of their scores on the 3 pubertal development measures. Dependent variables measured at age 13 were average minutes/day of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity as measured by the ActiGraph accelerometer. Results Early-maturing girls had significantly lower self-reported physical activity and accumulated fewer minutes of moderate to vigorous and vigorous physical activity and accelerometer counts per day at age 13 than later maturing girls. These effects v.-ere independent of differences in percentage body fat and self-reported physical activity at age 11. Conclusion Girls experiencing early pubertal maturation at age 11 reported lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 than their later maturing peers. Pubertal maturation, in particular early maturation relative to peers, may lead to declines in physical activity among adolescent girls.

A protocol for a pragmatic randomized controlled trial evaluating outcomes of emergency nurse practitioner service

Aim To evaluate emergency nurse practitioner service effectiveness on outcomes related to quality of care and service responsiveness. Background Increasing service pressures in the emergency setting have resulted in the adoption of service innovation models; the most common and rapidly expanding of these is the emergency nurse practitioner. The delivery of high quality patient care in the emergency department is one of the most important service indicators to be measured in health services today. The rapid uptake of emergency nurse practitioner service in Australia has outpaced the capacity to evaluate this model in outcomes related to safety and quality of patient care. Design Pragmatic randomized controlled trial at one site with 260 participants. Methods This protocol describes a definitive prospective randomized controlled trial, which will examine the impact of emergency nurse practitioner service on key patient care and service indicators. The study control will be standard emergency department care. The intervention will be emergency nurse practitioner service. The primary outcome measure is pain score reduction and time to analgesia. Secondary outcome measures are waiting time, number of patients who did not wait, length of stay in the emergency department and representations within 48 hours. Discussion Scant research enquiry evaluating emergency nurse practitioner service on patient effectiveness and service responsiveness exists currently. This study is a unique trial that will test the effectiveness of the emergency nurse practitioner service on patients who present to the emergency department with pain. The research will provide an opportunity to further evaluate emergency nurse practitioner models of care and build research capacity into the workforce.

Factors that influence young people's mental health help‐seeking behaviour : a study based on the Health Belief Model

Aim To identify key predictors and moderators of mental health ‘help-seeking behavior’ in adolescents. Background Mental illness is highly prevalent in adolescents and young adults; however, individuals in this demographic group are among the least likely to seek help for such illnesses. Very little quantitative research has examined predictors of help-seeking behaviour in this demographic group. Design A cross-sectional design was used. Methods A group of 180 volunteers between the ages of 17–25 completed a survey designed to measure hypothesized predictors and moderators of help-seeking behaviour. Predictors included a range of health beliefs, personality traits and attitudes. Data were collected in August 2010 and were analysed using two standard and three hierarchical multiple regression analyses. Findings The standard multiple regression analyses revealed that extraversion, perceived benefits of seeking help, perceived barriers to seeking help and social support were direct predictors of help-seeking behaviour. Tests of moderated relationships (using hierarchical multiple regression analyses) indicated that perceived benefits were more important than barriers in predicting help-seeking behaviour. In addition, perceived susceptibility did not predict help-seeking behaviour unless individuals were health conscious to begin with or they believed that they would benefit from help. Conclusion A range of personality traits, attitudes and health beliefs can predict help-seeking behaviour for mental health problems in adolescents. The variable ‘Perceived Benefits’ is of particular importance as it is: (1) a strong and robust predictor of help-seeking behaviour, and; (2) a factor that can theoretically be modified based on health promotion programmes.

Numerical investigation into the buckling behavior of advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell

Advanced grid stiffened composite cylindrical shell is widely adopted in advanced structures due to its exceptional mechanical properties. Buckling is a main failure mode of advanced grid stiffened structures in engineering, which calls for increasing attention. In this paper, the buckling response of advanced grid stiffened structure is investigated by three different means including equivalent stiffness model, finite element model and a hybrid model (H-model) that combines equivalent stiffness model with finite element model. Buckling experiment is carried out on an advanced grid stiffened structure to validate the efficiency of different modeling methods. Based on the comparison, the characteristics of different methods are independently evaluated. It is arguable that, by considering the defects of material, finite element model is a suitable numerical tool for the buckling analysis of advanced grid stiffened structures.

Advanced in-vehicle applications to mitigate driver aggression

Aggressive behavior at the steering wheel has been indicated as a contributing factor in a majority of crashes and anger has been compared to alcohol impairment in terms of probability to cause a crash. It has been shown that being in a state of anger or excitement while driving can decrease the drivers’ performances. . This paper reports the evaluation of 6 novel design alternatives of In-Vehicle Information Systems (IVIS) aimed at mitigating driver aggression. Each application presented was designed to tackle the following contributing factors to driver aggression: competitiveness, anonymity, territoriality, stress as well as social and emotional isolation. The 6 applications were simulated using computer vision algorithm to automatically overlay the real traffic conditions with ‘Head-Up Display’ visualizations. Two applications emerged over the others from participant’s evaluation: shared music combined the known calming effect of music with the sense of sympathy and intimacy caused by hearing other drivers’ music. The Shared Snapshot application provided an immediate gratification and was evaluated as a potential prevention of roadside quarrels. The paper presents Theoretical foundation, participant’s evaluations, implications and limitations of the study.

Efficient extension of standard Schnorr/RSA signatures into Universal Designated-Verifier Signatures

Universal Designated-Verifier Signature (UDVS) schemes are digital signature schemes with additional functionality which allows any holder of a signature to designate the signature to any desired designated-verifier such that the designated-verifier can verify that the message was signed by the signer, but is unable to convince anyone else of this fact. Since UDVS schemes reduce to standard signatures when no verifier designation is performed, it is natural to ask how to extend the classical Schnorr or RSA signature schemes into UDVS schemes, so that the existing key generation and signing implementation infrastructure for these schemes can be used without modification. We show how this can be efficiently achieved, and provide proofs of security for our schemes in the random oracle model.

Self-organized Au nanoarrays on vertical graphenes : an advanced three-dimensional sensing platform

A three-dimensional surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS)/plasmonic sensing platform based on plasma-enabled, catalyst-free, few-layer vertical graphenes decorated with self-organized Au nanoparticle arrays is demonstrated. This platform is viable for multiple species detection and overcomes several limitations of two-dimensional sensors.