Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

The designed environment and how it affects brain morphology and mental health

Background The environment is inextricably related to mental health. Recent research replicates findings of a significant, linear correlation between a childhood exposure to the urban environment and psychosis. Related studies also correlate the urban environment and aberrant brain morphologies. These findings challenge common beliefs that the mind and brain remain neutral in the face of worldly experience. Aim There is a signature within these neurological findings that suggests that specific features of design cause and trigger mental illness. The objective in this article is to work backward from the molecular dynamics to identify features of the designed environment that may either trigger mental illness or protect against it. Method This review analyzes the discrete functions putatively assigned to the affected brain areas and a neurotransmitter called dopamine, which is the primary target of most antipsychotic medications. The intention is to establish what the correlations mean in functional terms, and more specifically, how this relates to the phenomenology of urban experience. In doing so, environmental mental illness risk factors are identified. Conclusions Having established these relationships, the review makes practical recommendations for those in public health who wish to use the environment itself as a tool to improve the mental health of a community through design.

The missing link of crime analysis: A systematic approach to testing competing hypotheses

Crime analysts have traditionally received little guidance from academic researchers in key tasks in the analysis process, specifically the testing of multiple hypotheses and evaluating evidence in a scientific fashion. This article attempts to fill this gap by outlining a method (the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses) of systematically analysing multiple explanations for crime problems. The method is systematic, avoids many cognitive errors common in analysis, and is explicit. It is argued that the implementation of this approach makes analytic products audit-able, the reasoning underpinning them transparent, and provides intelligence managers a rational professional development tool for individual analysts.

Leaders' personal wisdom and leader-member exchange quality: The role of individualized consideration

Business scholars have recently proposed that the virtue of personal wisdom may predict leadership behaviors and the quality of leader–follower relationships. This study investigated relationships among leaders’ personal wisdom—defined as the integration of advanced cognitive, reflective, and affective personality characteristics (Ardelt, Hum Dev 47:257–285, 2004)—transformational leadership behaviors, and leader–member exchange (LMX) quality. It was hypothesized that leaders’ personal wisdom positively predicts LMX quality and that intellectual stimulation and individualized consideration, two dimensions of transformational leadership, mediate this relationship. Data came from 75 religious leaders and 1–3 employees of each leader (N = 158). Results showed that leaders’ personal wisdom had a positive indirect effect on follower ratings of LMX quality through individualized consideration, even after controlling for Big Five personality traits, emotional intelligence, and narcissism. In contrast, intellectual stimulation and the other two dimensions of transformational leadership (idealized influence and inspirational motivation) did not mediate the positive relationship between leaders’ personal wisdom and LMX quality. Implications for future research on personal wisdom and leadership are discussed, and some tentative suggestions for leadership development are outlined.

Assessing infant exposure to persistent organic pollutants via dietary intake in Australia

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs); organochlorine pesticides (OCPs); and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) persist in the environment, bioaccumulate, and pose a risk of causing adverse human health effects. Typically, exposure assessments undertaken by modeling existing intake data underestimate the concentrations of these chemicals in infants. This study aimed to determine concentrations of POPs in infant foods, assess exposure via dietary intake and compare this to historical exposure. Fruit purees, meat and vegetables, dairy desserts, cereals and jelly foods (n = 33) purchased in 2013 in Brisbane, Australia were analyzed. For OCPs and PCBs, concentrations ranged up to 95 pg/g fw and for PBDEs up to 32 pg/g fw with most analytes below the limit of detection. Daily intake is dependent on type and quantity of foods consumed. Consumption of a 140 g meal would result in intake ranging from 0 to 4.2 ng/day, 4.4 ng/day and 13.3 ng/day, for OCPs, PBDEs and PCBs, respectively. PBDEs were detected in 3/33 samples, OCPs in 9/33 samples and PCBs in 13/33 samples. Results from this study indicate exposure for infants via dietary (in contrast to dust and breast milk) intake in Australia contribute only a minor component to total exposure.

Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change

Recent growth in the number of studies examining belief in climate change is a positive development, but presents an ironic challenge in that it can be difficult for academics, practitioners and policy makers to keep pace. As a response to this challenge, we report on a meta-analysis of the correlates of belief in climate change. Twenty-seven variables were examined by synthesizing 25 polls and 171 academic studies across 56 nations. Two broad conclusions emerged. First, many intuitively appealing variables (such as education, sex, subjective knowledge, and experience of extreme weather events) were overshadowed in predictive power by values, ideologies, worldviews and political orientation. Second, climate change beliefs have only a small to moderate effect on the extent to which people are willing to act in climate-friendly ways. Implications for converting sceptics to the climate change cause—and for converting believers’ intentions into action—are discussed.