A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

Supermarkets and private standards : unintended consequences of the audit ritual

Recent scholarship has considered the implications of the rise of voluntary private standards in food and the role of private actors in a rapidly evolving, de-facto ‘mandatory’ sphere of governance. Standards are an important element of this globalising private sphere, but are an element that has been relatively peripheral in analyses of power in agri-food systems. Sociological thought has countered orthodox views of standards as simple tools of measurement, instead understanding their function as a governance mechanism that transforms many things, and people, during processes of standardisation. In a case study of the Australian retail supermarket duopoly and the proprietary standards required for market access this paper foregrounds retailers as standard owners and their role in third-party auditing and certification. Interview data from primary research into Australia’s food standards captures the multifaceted role supermarkets play as standard-owners, who are found to impinge on the independence of third-party certification while enforcing rigorous audit practices. We show how standard owners, in attempting to standardize the audit process, generate tensions within certification practices in a unique example of ritualism around audit. In examining standards to understand power in contemporary food governance, it is shown that retailers are drawn beyond standard-setting into certification and enforcement, that is characterized by a web of institutions and actors whose power to influence outcomes is uneven.

Retailer-driven agricultural restructuring - Australia, the UK and Norway in comparison

In recent decades, the governance of food safety, food quality, on-farm environmental management and animal welfare has been shifting from the realm of 'the government' to that of the private sector. Corporate entities, especially the large supermarkets, have responded to neoliberal forms of governance and the resultant 'hollowed-out' state by instituting private standards for food, backed by processes of certification and policed through systems of third party auditing. Today's food regime is one in which supermarkets impose 'private standards' along the food supply chain to ensure compliance with a range of food safety goals-often above and beyond those prescribed by government. By examining regulatory governance in Australia, Norway and the United Kingdom we highlight emerging trajectories of food governance. We argue that the imposition of the new private forms of monitoring and compliance continue the project of agricultural restructuring that began with government support for structural adjustment schemes in agriculture and that these are most evident in the UK and Australia where neoliberalism is an entrenched philosophy. However, despite Norway's identity as a social democracy, we also identify neoliberal 'creep' into the system of food governance. Small-scale producers in all three nations are finding themselves increasingly subject to governance through private, market-based mechanisms that, to varying degrees, are dominated by major supermarket chains. The result is agricultural restructuring not through the traditional avenues of elected governments, but via non-elected market operatives.

Exploring differences in driving behaviour across age and years of education of taxi drivers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Despite statistics indicating that the African region has the highest road traffic fatality rate globally, there is limited scientific literature identifying the determinants of driving behaviour. In this study, we explore differences in self-reported driving behaviour across age groups and years of education in a population of 213 drivers from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. We hypothesize that younger, less educated drivers will report engaging in more unsafe driving behaviours compared to older, more educated drivers. Contrary to expectations, we found the opposite effect, whereby older, more educated drivers reported engaging in more unsafe driving behaviours than younger, less educated drivers. We explain these findings by describing key characteristics of the sample and cultural ideologies of the region. The findings of this study offer some practical guidance for intervention to address the burden of road traffic injury and death in the African region.

Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility : a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries

Objective This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. Methods We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity. Results Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia. Conclusions Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.

Does Addition of NO2 to Carbon-Centered Radicals Yield RONO or RNO2? An Investigation Using Distonic Radical Ions

Nitrogen dioxide is used as a "radical scavenger" to probe the position of carbon-centered radicals within complex radical ions in the gas phase. As with analogous neutral radical reactions, this addition results in formation of an \[M + NO2](+) adduct, but the structural identity of this species remains ambiguous. Specifically, the question remains: do such adducts have a nitro-(RNO2) or nitrosoxy-(RONO) moiety, or are both isomers present in the adduct population? In order to elucidate the products of such reactions, we have prepared and isolated three distonic phenyl radical cations and observed their reactions with nitrogen dioxide in the gas phase by ion-trap mass spectrometry. In each case, stabilized \[M + NO2](+) adduct ions are observed and isolated. The structure of these adducts is probed by collision-induced dissociation and ultraviolet photodissociation action spectroscopy and a comparison made to the analogous spectra of authentic nitro-and nitrosoxy-benzenes. We demonstrate unequivocally that for the phenyl radical cations studied here, all stabilized \[M + NO2](+) adducts are exclusively nitrobenzenes. Electronic structure calculations support these mass spectrometric observations and suggest that, under low-pressure conditions, the nitrosoxy-isomer is unlikely to be isolated from the reaction of an alkyl or aryl radical with NO2. The combined experimental and theoretical results lead to the prediction that stabilization of the nitrosoxy-isomer will only be possible for systems wherein the energy required for dissociation of the RO-NO bond (or other low energy fragmentation channels) rises close to, or above, the energy of the separated reactants.

Ozone-induced dissociation of conjugated lipids reveals significant reaction rate enhancements and characteristic odd-electron product ions

Ozone-induced dissociation (OzID) is an alternative ion activation method that relies on the gas phase ion-molecule reaction between a mass-selected target ion and ozone in an ion trap mass spectrometer. Herein, we evaluated the performance of OzID for both the structural elucidation and selective detection of conjugated carbon-carbon double bond motifs within lipids. The relative reactivity trends for \[M + X](+) ions (where X = Li, Na, K) formed via electrospray ionization (ESI) of conjugated versus nonconjugated fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) were examined using two different OzID-enabled linear ion-trap mass spectrometers. Compared with nonconjugated analogues, FAMEs derived from conjugated linoleic acids were found to react up to 200 times faster and to yield characteristic radical cations. The significantly enhanced reactivity of conjugated isomers means that OzID product ions can be observed without invoking a reaction delay in the experimental sequence (i.e., trapping of ions in the presence of ozone is not required). This possibility has been exploited to undertake neutral-loss scans on a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer targeting characteristic OzID transitions. Such analyses reveal the presence of conjugated double bonds in lipids extracted from selected foodstuffs. Finally, by benchmarking of the absolute ozone concentration inside the ion trap, second order rate constants for the gas phase reactions between unsaturated organic ions and ozone were obtained. These results demonstrate a significant influence of the adducting metal on reaction rate constants in the fashion Li > Na > K.

Lattice-based completely non-malleable public-key encryption in the standard model

An encryption scheme is non-malleable if giving an encryption of a message to an adversary does not increase its chances of producing an encryption of a related message (under a given public key). Fischlin introduced a stronger notion, known as complete non-malleability, which requires attackers to have negligible advantage, even if they are allowed to transform the public key under which the related message is encrypted. Ventre and Visconti later proposed a comparison-based definition of this security notion, which is more in line with the well-studied definitions proposed by Bellare et al. The authors also provide additional feasibility results by proposing two constructions of completely non-malleable schemes, one in the common reference string model using non-interactive zero-knowledge proofs, and another using interactive encryption schemes. Therefore, the only previously known completely non-malleable (and non-interactive) scheme in the standard model, is quite inefficient as it relies on generic NIZK approach. They left the existence of efficient schemes in the common reference string model as an open problem. Recently, two efficient public-key encryption schemes have been proposed by Libert and Yung, and Barbosa and Farshim, both of them are based on pairing identity-based encryption. At ACISP 2011, Sepahi et al. proposed a method to achieve completely non-malleable encryption in the public-key setting using lattices but there is no security proof for the proposed scheme. In this paper we review the mentioned scheme and provide its security proof in the standard model. Our study shows that Sepahi’s scheme will remain secure even for post-quantum world since there are currently no known quantum algorithms for solving lattice problems that perform significantly better than the best known classical (i.e., non-quantum) algorithms.

Cryptanalysis of the convex hull click human identification protocol

Recently, a convex hull-based human identification protocol was proposed by Sobrado and Birget, whose steps can be performed by humans without additional aid. The main part of the protocol involves the user mentally forming a convex hull of secret icons in a set of graphical icons and then clicking randomly within this convex hull. While some rudimentary security issues of this protocol have been discussed, a comprehensive security analysis has been lacking. In this paper, we analyze the security of this convex hull-based protocol. In particular, we show two probabilistic attacks that reveal the user’s secret after the observation of only a handful of authentication sessions. These attacks can be efficiently implemented as their time and space complexities are considerably less than brute force attack. We show that while the first attack can be mitigated through appropriately chosen values of system parameters, the second attack succeeds with a non-negligible probability even with large system parameter values that cross the threshold of usability.

Cryptanalysis of WG-7 : a lightweight stream cipher

WG-7 is a stream cipher based on WG stream cipher and has been designed by Luo et al. (2010). This cipher is designed for low cost and lightweight applications (RFID tags and mobile phones, for instance). This paper addresses cryptographic weaknesses of WG-7 stream cipher. We show that the key stream generated by WG-7 can be distinguished from a random sequence after knowing 213.5 keystream bits and with a negligible error probability. Also, we investigate the security of WG-7 against algebraic attacks. An algebraic key recovery attack on this cipher is proposed. The attack allows to recover both the internal state and the secret key with the time complexity about 2/27.

Ethnographic notes on visualization practices in tissue engineering

Visual information is central to several of the scientific disciplines. This paper studies how scientists working in a multidisciplinary field produce scientific evidence through building and manipulating scientific visualizations. Using ethnographic methods, we studied visualization practices of eight scientists working in the domain of tissue engineering research. Tissue engineering is an upcoming field of research that deals with replacing or regenerating human cells, tissues, or organs to restore or establish normal function. We spent 3 months in the field, where we recorded laboratory sessions of these scientists and used semi-structured interviews to get an insight into their visualization practices. From our results, we elicit two themes characterizing their visualization practices: multiplicity and physicality. In this article, we provide several examples of scientists’ visualization practices to describe these two themes and show that multimodality of such practices plays an important role in scientific visualization.

Creative practices in the design studio culture : collaboration and communication

For the purpose of developing collaborative support in design studio environments, we have carried out ethnographic fieldwork in professional and academic product design studios. Our intention was to understand design practices beyond the productivity point of view and take into account the experiential, inspirational and aesthetical aspects of design practices. Using examples from our fieldwork, we develop our results around three broad themes by which design professionals support communication and collaboration: (1) use of artefacts, (2) use of space and (3) designerly practices. We use the results of our fieldwork for drawing implications for designing technologies for the design studio culture.

Ecological consequences of fragmentation and deforestation in an urban landscape : a case study

Landscape change is an ongoing process even within established urban landscapes. Yet, analyses of fragmentation and deforestation have focused primarily on the conversion of non-urban to urban landscapes in rural landscapes and ignored urban landscapes. To determine the ecological effects of continued urbanization in urban landscapes, tree-covered patches were mapped in the Gwynns Falls watershed (17158.6 ha) in Maryland for 1994 and 1999 to document fragmentation, deforestation, and reforestation. The watershed was divided into lower (urban core), middle (older suburbs), and upper (recent suburbs) subsections. Over the entire watershed a net of 264.5 of 4855.5 ha of tree-covered patches were converted to urban land use-125 new tree-covered patches were added through fragmentation, 4 were added through reforestation, 43 were lost through deforestation, and 7 were combined with an adjacent patch. In addition, 180 patches were reduced in size. In the urban core, deforestation continued with conversion to commercial land use. Because of the lack of vegetation, commercial land uses are problematic for both species conservation and derived ecosystem benefits. In the lower subsection, shape complexity increased for tree-covered patches less than 10 ha. Changes in shape resulted from canopy expansion, planted materials, and reforestation of vacant sites. In the middle and upper subsections, the shape index value for tree-covered patches decreased, indicating simplification. Density analyses of the subsections showed no change with respect to patch densities but pointed out the importance of small patches (≤5 ha) as "stepping stone" to link large patches (e. g., ≥100 ha). Using an urban forest effect model, we estimated, for the entire watershed, total carbon loss and pollution removal, from 1994 to 1999, to be 14,235,889.2 kg and 13,011.4 kg, respectively due to urban land-use conversions.

Promoting active lifestyles in young children: investigating mothers’ decisions about their child’s physical activity and screen time behaviours

Objectives Given increasing trends of obesity being noted from early in life and that active lifestyles track across time, it is important that children at a very young age be active to combat a foundation of unhealthy behaviours forming. This study investigated, within a theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework, factors which influence mothers’ decisions about their child’s 1) adequate physical activity (PA) and 2) limited screen time behaviours. Methods Mothers (N = 162) completed a main questionnaire, via on-line or paper-based administration, which comprised standard TPB items in addition to measures of planning and background demographic variables. One week later, consenting mothers completed a follow-up telephone questionnaire which assessed the decisions they had made regarding their child’s PA and screen time behaviours during the previous week. Results Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed support for the predictive model, explaining an overall 73% and 78% of the variance in mothers’ intention and 38% and 53% of the variance in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in adequate PA and limited screen time, respectively. Attitude and subjective norms predicted intention in both target behaviours, as did intentions with behaviour. Contrary to predictions, perceived behavioural control (PBC) in PA behaviour and planning in screen time behaviour were not significant predictors of intention, neither was PBC a predictor of either behaviour. Conclusions The findings illustrate the various roles that psycho-social factors play in mothers’ decisions to ensure their child engages in active lifestyle behaviours which can help to inform future intervention programs aimed at combating very young children’s inactivity.

Relationships between safety climate and safety performance of building repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition (RMAA) works

The importance of repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition (RMAA) works is increasing in many built societies. When the volume of RMAA works increases, the occurrence of RMAA accidents also increases. Safety of RMAA works deserves more attention; however, research in this important topic remains limited. Safety climate is considered a key factor that influences safety performance. The present study aims to determine the relationships between safety climate and safety performance of RMAA works, thereby offering recommendations on improving RMAA safety. Questionnaires were dispatched to private property management companies, maintenance sections of quasi-government developers and their subcontractors, RMAA sections of general contractors, small RMAA contractors, building services contractors and trade unions in Hong Kong. In total, data from 396 questionnaires were collected from RMAA workers. The sample was divided into two equal-sized sub-samples. On the first sub-sample SEM was used to test the model, which was validated on the second sub-sample. The model revealed a significant negative relationship between RMAA safety climate and incidence of self-reported near misses and injuries, and significant positive relationships between RMAA safety climate and safety participation and safety compliance respectively. Higher RMAA safety climate was positively associated with a lower incidence of self-reported near misses and injuries and higher levels of safety participation and safety compliance.