593 resultados para stochastic load factor


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Deterministic transit capacity analysis applies to planning, design and operational management of urban transit systems. The Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual (1) and Vuchic (2, 3) enable transit performance to be quantified and assessed using transit capacity and productive capacity. This paper further defines important productive performance measures of an individual transit service and transit line. Transit work (p-km) captures the transit task performed over distance. Passenger transmission (p-km/h) captures the passenger task delivered by service at speed. Transit productiveness (p-km/h) captures transit work performed over time. These measures are useful to operators in understanding their services’ or systems’ capabilities and passenger quality of service. This paper accounts for variability in utilized demand by passengers along a line and high passenger load conditions where passenger pass-up delay occurs. A hypothetical case study of an individual bus service’s operation demonstrates the usefulness of passenger transmission in comparing existing and growth scenarios. A hypothetical case study of a bus line’s operation during a peak hour window demonstrates the theory’s usefulness in examining the contribution of individual services to line productive performance. Scenarios may be assessed using this theory to benchmark or compare lines and segments, conditions, or consider improvements.

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Transit Capacity Analysis critical to urban system Planning Design, Operation Productive Performance Analysis not so well detailed This study extends TRB’s & Vuchic’s work in this area

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Recently an innovative composite panel system was developed, where a thin insulation layer was used externally between two plasterboards to improve the fire performance of light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls. In this research, finite-element thermal models of both the traditional light gauge cold-formed steel frame wall panels with cavity insulation and the new light gauge cold-formed steel frame composite wall panels were developed to simulate their thermal behaviour under standard and realistic fire conditions. Suitable apparent thermal properties of gypsum plasterboard, insulation materials and steel were proposed and used. The developed models were then validated by comparing their results with available fire test results. This article presents the details of the developed finite-element models of small-scale non-load-bearing light gauge cold-formed steel frame wall panels and the results of the thermal analysis. It has been shown that accurate finite-element models can be used to simulate the thermal behaviour of small-scale light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls with varying configurations of insulations and plasterboards. The numerical results show that the use of cavity insulation was detrimental to the fire rating of light gauge cold-formed steel frame walls, while the use of external insulation offered superior thermal protection to them. The effects of real fire conditions are also presented.

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The greatly increased risk of being killed or injured in a car crash for the young novice driver has been recognised in the road safety and injury prevention literature for decades. Risky driving behaviour has consistently been found to contribute to traffic crashes. Researchers have devised a number of instruments to measure this risky driving behaviour. One tool developed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of young novice drivers is the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS) (Scott-Parker et al., 2010). The BYNDS consists of 44 items comprising five subscales for transient violations, fixed violations, misjudgement, risky driving exposure, and driving in response to their mood. The factor structure of the BYNDS has not been examined since its development in a matched sample of 476 novice drivers aged 17-25 years. Method: The current research attempted to refine the BYNDS and explore its relationship with the self-reported crash and offence involvement and driving intentions of 390 drivers aged 17-25 years (M = 18.23, SD = 1.58) in Queensland, Australia, during their first six months of independent driving with a Provisional (intermediate) driver’s licence. A confirmatory factor analysis was undertaken examining the fit of the originally proposed BYNDS measurement model. Results: The model was not a good fit to the data. A number of iterations removed items with low factor loadings, resulting in a 36-item revised BYNDS which was a good fit to the data. The revised BYNDS was highly internally consistent. Crashes were associated with fixed violations, risky driving exposure, and misjudgement; offences were moderately associated with risky driving exposure and transient violations; and road-rule compliance intentions were highly associated with transient violations. Conclusions: Applications of the BYNDS in other young novice driver populations will further explore the factor structure of both the original and revised BYNDS. The relationships between BYNDS subscales and self-reported risky behaviour and attitudes can also inform countermeasure development, such as targeting young novice driver non-compliance through enforcement and education initiatives.

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Some uncertainties such as the stochastic input/output power of a plug-in electric vehicle due to its stochastic charging and discharging schedule, that of a wind unit and that of a photovoltaic generation source, volatile fuel prices and future uncertain load growth, all together could lead to some risks in determining the optimal siting and sizing of distributed generators (DGs) in distributed systems. Given this background, under the chance constrained programming (CCP) framework, a new method is presented to handle these uncertainties in the optimal sitting and sizing problem of DGs. First, a mathematical model of CCP is developed with the minimization of DGs investment cost, operational cost and maintenance cost as well as the network loss cost as the objective, security limitations as constraints, the sitting and sizing of DGs as optimization variables. Then, a Monte Carolo simulation embedded genetic algorithm approach is developed to solve the developed CCP model. Finally, the IEEE 37-node test feeder is employed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the developed model and method. This work is supported by an Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Project on Intelligent Grids Under the Energy Transformed Flagship, and Project from Jiangxi Power Company.

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It is frequently reported that the actual weight loss achieved through exercise interventions is less than theoretically expected. Amongst other compensatory adjustments that accompany exercise training (e.g., increases in resting metabolic rate and energy intake), a possible cause of the less than expected weight loss is a failure to produce a marked increase in total daily energy expenditure due to a compensatory reduction in non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). Therefore, there is a need to understand how behaviour is modified in response to exercise interventions. The proposed benefits of exercise training are numerous, including changes to fat oxidation. Given that a diminished capacity to oxidise fat could be a factor in the aetiology of obesity, an exercise training intensity that optimises fat oxidation in overweight/obese individuals would improve impaired fat oxidation, and potentially reduce health risks that are associated with obesity. To improve our understanding of the effectiveness of exercise for weight management, it is important to ensure exercise intensity is appropriately prescribed, and to identify and monitor potential compensatory behavioural changes consequent to exercise training. In line with the gaps in the literature, three studies were performed. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the effect of acute bouts of moderate- and high-intensity walking exercise on NEAT in overweight and obese men. Sixteen participants performed a single bout of either moderate-intensity walking exercise (MIE) or high-intensity walking exercise (HIE) on two separate occasions. The MIE consisted of walking for 60-min on a motorised treadmill at 6 km.h-1. The 60-min HIE session consisted of walking in 5-min intervals at 6 km.h-1 and 10% grade followed by 5-min at 0% grade. NEAT was assessed by accelerometer three days before, on the day of, and three days after the exercise sessions. There was no significant difference in NEAT vector magnitude (counts.min-1) between the pre-exercise period (days 1-3) and the exercise day (day 4) for either protocol. In addition, there was no change in NEAT during the three days following the MIE session, however NEAT increased by 16% on day 7 (post-exercise) compared with the exercise day (P = 0.32). During the post-exercise period following the HIE session, NEAT was increased by 25% on day 7 compared with the exercise day (P = 0.08), and by 30-33% compared with the pre-exercise period (day 1, day 2 and day 3); P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, respectively. To conclude, a single bout of either MIE or HIE did not alter NEAT on the exercise day or on the first two days following the exercise session. However, extending the monitoring of NEAT allowed the detection of a 48 hour delay in increased NEAT after performing HIE. A longer-term intervention is needed to determine the effect of accumulated exercise sessions over a week on NEAT. In Study 2, there were two primary aims. The first aim was to test the reliability of a discontinuous incremental exercise protocol (DISCON-FATmax) to identify the workload at which fat oxidation is maximised (FATmax). Ten overweight and obese sedentary male men (mean BMI of 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2 and mean age of 28.0 ¡Ó 5.3 y) participated in this study and performed two identical DISCON-FATmax tests one week apart. Each test consisted of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The starting work load of 28 W was increased every 4-min using 14 W increments followed by 2-min rest intervals. When the respiratory exchange ratio was consistently >1.0, the workload was increased by 14 W every 2-min until volitional exhaustion. Fat oxidation was measured by indirect calorimetry. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2peak, %ƒtV O2peak and %Wmax at which FATmax occurred during the two tests were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 and 0.18 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1); 29.7 ¡Ó 7.8 and 28.3 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 42.3 ¡Ó 7.2 and 42.6 ¡Ó 10.2 (%ƒtV O2max) and 36.4 ¡Ó 8.5 and 35.4 ¡Ó 10.9 (%), respectively. A paired-samples T-test revealed a significant difference in FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests (t = 2.65, P = 0.03). The mean difference in FATmax was 0.05 (g.min-1) with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.01 to 0.18. Paired-samples T-test, however, revealed no significant difference in the workloads (i.e. W) between the tests, t (9) = 0.70, P = 0.4. The intra-class correlation coefficient for FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests was 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.96, P < 0.01). However, Bland-Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in FATmax (g.min-1) related to W between the two tests; 11 ¡Ó 14 (W) (4.1 ¡Ó 5.3 ƒtV O2peak (%)).These data demonstrate two important phenomena associated with exercise-induced substrate oxidation; firstly, that maximal fat oxidation derived from a discontinuous FATmax protocol differed statistically between repeated tests, and secondly, there was large variability in the workload corresponding with FATmax. The second aim of Study 2 was to test the validity of a DISCON-FATmax protocol by comparing maximal fat oxidation (g.min-1) determined by DISCON-FATmax with fat oxidation (g.min-1) during a continuous exercise protocol using a constant load (CONEX). Ten overweight and obese sedentary males (BMI = 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2; age = 28.0 ¡Ó 4.5 y) with a ƒtV O2max of 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 ml.kg-1.min-1 performed a DISCON-FATmax test consisting of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The 1-h CONEX protocol used the workload from the DISCON-FATmax to determine FATmax. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2max, %ƒtV O2max and workload at which FATmax occurred during the DISCON-FATmax were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 (g.min-1); 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 43.8 ¡Ó 7.3 (%ƒtV O2max) and 58.8 ¡Ó 19.6 (W), respectively. The mean fat oxidation during the 1-h CONEX protocol was 0.19 ¡Ó 0.07 (g.min-1). A paired-samples T-test revealed no significant difference in fat oxidation (g.min-1) between DISCON-FATmax and CONEX, t (9) = 1.85, P = 0.097 (two-tailed). There was also no significant correlation in fat oxidation between the DISCON-FATmax and CONEX (R=0.51, P = 0.14). Bland- Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in fat oxidation between the DISCONFATmax and CONEX; the upper limit of agreement was 0.13 (g.min-1) and the lower limit of agreement was ¡V0.03 (g.min-1). These data suggest that the CONEX and DISCONFATmax protocols did not elicit different rates of fat oxidation (g.min-1). However, the individual variability in fat oxidation was large, particularly in the DISCON-FATmax test. Further research is needed to ascertain the validity of graded exercise tests for predicting fat oxidation during constant load exercise sessions. The aim of Study 3 was to compare the impact of two different intensities of four weeks of exercise training on fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite in overweight and obese men. Using a cross-over design 11 participants (BMI = 29 ¡Ó 4 kg/m2; age = 27 ¡Ó 4 y) participated in a training study and were randomly assigned initially to: [1] a lowintensity (45%ƒtV O2max) exercise (LIT) or [2] a high-intensity interval (alternate 30 s at 90%ƒtV O2max followed by 30 s rest) exercise (HIIT) 40-min duration, three times a week. Participants completed four weeks of supervised training and between cross-over had a two week washout period. At baseline and the end of each exercise intervention,ƒtV O2max, fat oxidation, and NEAT were measured. Fat oxidation was determined during a standard 30-min continuous exercise bout at 45%ƒtV O2max. During the steady state exercise expired gases were measured intermittently for 5-min periods and HR was monitored continuously. In each training period, NEAT was measured for seven consecutive days using an accelerometer (RT3) the week before, at week 3 and the week after training. Subjective appetite sensations and food preferences were measured immediately before and after the first exercise session every week for four weeks during both LIT and HIIT. The mean fat oxidation rate during the standard continuous exercise bout at baseline for both LIT and HIIT was 0.14 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1). After four weeks of exercise training, the mean fat oxidation was 0.178 ¡Ó 0.04 and 0.183 ¡Ó 0.04 g.min-1 for LIT and HIIT, respectively. The mean NEAT (counts.min-1) was 45 ¡Ó 18 at baseline, 55 ¡Ó 22 and 44 ¡Ó 16 during training, and 51 ¡Ó 14 and 50 ¡Ó 21 after training for LIT and HIIT, respectively. There was no significant difference in fat oxidation between LIT and HIIT. Moreover, although not statistically significant, there was some evidence to suggest that LIT and HIIT tend to increase fat oxidation during exercise at 45% ƒtV O2max (P = 0.14 and 0.08, respectively). The order of training treatment did not significantly influence changes in fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite. NEAT (counts.min-1) was not significantly different in the week following training for either LIT or HIIT. Although not statistically significant (P = 0.08), NEAT was 20% lower during week 3 of exercise training in HIIT compared with LIT. Examination of appetite sensations revealed differences in the intensity of hunger, with higher ratings after LIT compared with HIIT. No differences were found in preferences for high-fat sweet foods between LIT and HIIT. In conclusion, the results of this thesis suggest that while fat oxidation during steady state exercise was not affected by the level of exercise intensity, there is strong evidence to suggest that intense exercise could have a debilitative effect on NEAT.

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Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

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The privacy of efficient tree-based RFID authentication protocols is heavily dependent on the branching factor on the top layer. Indefinitely increasing the branching factor, however, is not a viable option. This paper proposes the alternate-tree walking scheme as well as two protocols to circumvent this problem. The privacy of the resulting protocols is shown to be comparable to that of linear-time protocols, where there is no leakage of information, whilst reducing the computational load of the database by one-third of what is required of tree-based protocols during authentication. We also identify and address a limitation in quantifying privacy in RFID protocols.

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A 4-cylinder Ford 2701C test engine was used in this study to explore the impact of ethanol fumigation on gaseous and particle emission concentrations. The fumigation technique delivered vaporised ethanol into the intake manifold of the engine, using an injector, a pump and pressure regulator, a heat exchanger for vaporising ethanol and a separate fuel tank and lines. Gaseous (Nitric oxide (NO), Carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrocarbons (HC)) and particulate emissions (particle mass (PM2.5) and particle number) testing was conducted at intermediate speed (1700 rpm) using 4 load settings with ethanol substitution percentages ranging from 10-40 % (by energy). With ethanol fumigation, NO and PM2.5 emissions were reduced, whereas CO and HC emissions increased considerably and particle number emissions increased at most test settings. It was found that ethanol fumigation reduced the excess air factor for the engine and this led to increased emissions of CO and HC, but decreased emissions of NO. PM2.5 emissions were reduced with ethanol fumigation, as ethanol has a very low “sooting” tendency. This is due to the higher hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of this fuel, and also because ethanol does not contain aromatics, both of which are known soot precursors. The use of a diesel oxidation catalyst (as an after-treatment device) is recommended to achieve a reduction in the four pollutants that are currently regulated for compression ignition engines. The increase in particle number emissions with ethanol fumigation was due to the formation of volatile (organic) particles; consequently, using a diesel oxidation catalyst will also assist in reducing particle number emissions.

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Load modelling plays an important role in power system dynamic stability assessment. One of the widely used methods in assessing load model impact on system dynamic response is parametric sensitivity analysis. A composite load model-based load sensitivity analysis framework is proposed. It enables comprehensive investigation into load modelling impacts on system stability considering the dynamic interactions between load and system dynamics. The effect of the location of individual as well as patches of composite loads in the vicinity on the sensitivity of the oscillatory modes is investigated. The impact of load composition on the overall sensitivity of the load is also investigated.

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Voltage drop and rise at network peak and off–peak periods along with voltage unbalance are the major power quality problems in low voltage distribution networks. Usually, the utilities try to use adjusting the transformer tap changers as a solution for the voltage drop. They also try to distribute the loads equally as a solution for network voltage unbalance problem. On the other hand, the ever increasing energy demand, along with the necessity of cost reduction and higher reliability requirements, are driving the modern power systems towards Distributed Generation (DG) units. This can be in the form of small rooftop photovoltaic cells (PV), Plug–in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) or Micro Grids (MGs). Rooftop PVs, typically with power levels ranging from 1–5 kW installed by the householders are gaining popularity due to their financial benefits for the householders. Also PEVs will be soon emerged in residential distribution networks which behave as a huge residential load when they are being charged while in their later generation, they are also expected to support the network as small DG units which transfer the energy stored in their battery into grid. Furthermore, the MG which is a cluster of loads and several DG units such as diesel generators, PVs, fuel cells and batteries are recently introduced to distribution networks. The voltage unbalance in the network can be increased due to the uncertainties in the random connection point of the PVs and PEVs to the network, their nominal capacity and time of operation. Therefore, it is of high interest to investigate the voltage unbalance in these networks as the result of MGs, PVs and PEVs integration to low voltage networks. In addition, the network might experience non–standard voltage drop due to high penetration of PEVs, being charged at night periods, or non–standard voltage rise due to high penetration of PVs and PEVs generating electricity back into the grid in the network off–peak periods. In this thesis, a voltage unbalance sensitivity analysis and stochastic evaluation is carried out for PVs installed by the householders versus their installation point, their nominal capacity and penetration level as different uncertainties. A similar analysis is carried out for PEVs penetration in the network working in two different modes: Grid to vehicle and Vehicle to grid. Furthermore, the conventional methods are discussed for improving the voltage unbalance within these networks. This is later continued by proposing new and efficient improvement methods for voltage profile improvement at network peak and off–peak periods and voltage unbalance reduction. In addition, voltage unbalance reduction is investigated for MGs and new improvement methods are proposed and applied for the MG test bed, planned to be established at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). MATLAB and PSCAD/EMTDC simulation softwares are used for verification of the analyses and the proposals.

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In this article, we, for the first time, investigated mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds for the delivery of vascular endothelial growth factor. We have found that mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds have significantly higher loading efficiency and more sustained release of vascular endothelial growth factor than non-mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds. In addition, vascular endothelial growth factor delivery from mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds has improved the viability of endothelial cells. The study has suggested that mesopore structures in mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds play an important role in improving the loading efficiency, decreasing the burst release, and maintaining the bioactivity of vascular endothelial growth factor, indicating that mesoporous bioactive glass scaffolds are an excellent carrier of vascular endothelial growth factor for potential bone tissue engineering applications.

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Ion channels are membrane proteins that open and close at random and play a vital role in the electrical dynamics of excitable cells. The stochastic nature of the conformational changes these proteins undergo can be significant, however current stochastic modeling methodologies limit the ability to study such systems. Discrete-state Markov chain models are seen as the "gold standard," but are computationally intensive, restricting investigation of stochastic effects to the single-cell level. Continuous stochastic methods that use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to model the system are more efficient but can lead to simulations that have no biological meaning. In this paper we show that modeling the behavior of ion channel dynamics by a reflected SDE ensures biologically realistic simulations, and we argue that this model follows from the continuous approximation of the discrete-state Markov chain model. Open channel and action potential statistics from simulations of ion channel dynamics using the reflected SDE are compared with those of a discrete-state Markov chain method. Results show that the reflected SDE simulations are in good agreement with the discrete-state approach. The reflected SDE model therefore provides a computationally efficient method to simulate ion channel dynamics while preserving the distributional properties of the discrete-state Markov chain model and also ensuring biologically realistic solutions. This framework could easily be extended to other biochemical reaction networks. © 2012 American Physical Society.

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In this paper we extend the ideas of Brugnano, Iavernaro and Trigiante in their development of HBVM($s,r$) methods to construct symplectic Runge-Kutta methods for all values of $s$ and $r$ with $s\geq r$. However, these methods do not see the dramatic performance improvement that HBVMs can attain. Nevertheless, in the case of additive stochastic Hamiltonian problems an extension of these ideas, which requires the simulation of an independent Wiener process at each stage of a Runge-Kutta method, leads to methods that have very favourable properties. These ideas are illustrated by some simple numerical tests for the modified midpoint rule.

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An elevated particle number concentration (PNC) observed during nucleation events could play a significant contribution to the total particle load and therefore to the air pollution in the urban environments. Therefore, a field measurement study of PNC was commenced to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PNC within the urban airshed of Brisbane, Australia. PNC was monitored at urban (QUT), roadside (WOO) and semi-urban (ROC) areas around the Brisbane region during 2009. During the morning traffic peak period, the highest relative fraction of PNC reached about 5% at QUT and WOO on weekdays. PNC peaks were observed around noon, which correlated with the highest solar radiation levels at all three stations, thus suggesting that high PNC levels were likely to be associated with new particle formation caused by photochemical reactions. Wind rose plots showed relatively higher PNC for the NE direction, which was associated with industrial pollution, accounting for 12%, 9% and 14% of overall PNC at QUT, WOO and ROC, respectively. Although there was no significant correlation between PNC at each station, the variation of PNC was well correlated among three stations during regional nucleation events. In addition, PNC at ROC was significantly influenced by upwind urban pollution during the nucleation burst events, with the average enrichment factor of 15.4. This study provides an insight into the influence of regional nucleation events on PNC in the Brisbane region and it the first study to quantify the effect of urban pollution on semi-urban PNC through the nucleation events. © 2012 Author(s).