Assessing uncertainty in pollutant build-up and wash-off processes

Assessing build-up and wash-off process uncertainty is important for accurate interpretation of model outcomes to facilitate informed decision making for developing effective stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Uncertainty inherent to pollutant build-up and wash-off processes influences the variations in pollutant loads entrained in stormwater runoff from urban catchments. However, build-up and wash-off predictions from stormwater quality models do not adequately represent such variations due to poor characterisation of the variability of these processes in mathematical models. The changes to the mathematical form of current models with the incorporation of process variability, facilitates accounting for process uncertainty without significantly affecting the model prediction performance. Moreover, the investigation of uncertainty propagation from build-up to wash-off confirmed that uncertainty in build-up process significantly influences wash-off process uncertainty. Specifically, the behaviour of particles <150µm during build-up primarily influences uncertainty propagation, resulting in appreciable variations in the pollutant load and composition during a wash-off event.

Influence of uncertainty inherent to heavy metal build-up and wash-off on stormwater quality

Uncertainty inherent to heavy metal build-up and wash-off stems from process variability. This results in inaccurate interpretation of stormwater quality model predictions. The research study has characterised the variability in heavy metal build-up and wash-off processes based on the temporal variations in particle-bound heavy metals commonly found on urban roads. The study outcomes found that the distribution of Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were consistent over particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm, with most metals concentrated in the particle size fraction <150µm. When build-up and wash-off are considered as independent processes, the temporal variations in these processes in relation to the heavy metals load are consistent with variations in the particulate load. However, the temporal variations in the load in build-up and wash-off of heavy metals and particulates are not consistent for consecutive build-up and wash-off events that occur on a continuous timeline. These inconsistencies are attributed to interactions between heavy metals and particulates <150µm and >150µm, which are influenced by particle characteristics such as organic matter content. The behavioural variability of particles determines the variations in the heavy metals load entrained in stormwater runoff. Accordingly, the variability in build-up and wash-off of particle-bound pollutants needs to be characterised in the description of pollutant attachment to particulates in stormwater quality modelling. This will ensure the accounting of process uncertainty, and thereby enhancing the interpretation of the outcomes derived from modelling studies.

Elliptical summary randomisation for sensor-based human activity recognition

Many conventional statistical machine learning al- gorithms generalise poorly if distribution bias ex- ists in the datasets. For example, distribution bias arises in the context of domain generalisation, where knowledge acquired from multiple source domains need to be used in a previously unseen target domains. We propose Elliptical Summary Randomisation (ESRand), an efficient domain generalisation approach that comprises of a randomised kernel and elliptical data summarisation. ESRand learns a domain interdependent projection to a la- tent subspace that minimises the existing biases to the data while maintaining the functional relationship between domains. In the latent subspace, ellipsoidal summaries replace the samples to enhance the generalisation by further removing bias and noise in the data. Moreover, the summarisation enables large-scale data processing by significantly reducing the size of the data. Through comprehensive analysis, we show that our subspace-based approach outperforms state-of-the-art results on several activity recognition benchmark datasets, while keeping the computational complexity significantly low.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Developing an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multi-sensor payload carrier for air quality monitoring

Emissions of gases and particles from sea-faring ships have been shown to impact on the atmospheric chemistry and climate. To efficiently monitor and report these emissions found from a ship’s plume, the concept of using a multi-rotor or UAV to hover inside or near the exhaust of the ship to actively record the data in real time is being developed. However, for the required sensors obtain the data; their sensors must face into the airflow of the ships plume. This report presents an approach to have sensors able to read in the chemicals and particles emitted from the ship without affecting the flight dynamics of the multi-rotor UAV by building a sealed chamber in which a pump can take in the surrounding air (outside the downwash effect of the multi-rotor) where the sensors are placed and can analyse the gases safely. Results show that the system is small, lightweight and air-sealed and ready for flight test.

Green Falcon IV: An Unmanned Aerial System and an integrated Wireless Sensor Network for remote sensing tasks

This report summarises the development of an Unmanned Aerial System and an integrated Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), suitable for the real world application in remote sensing tasks. Several aspects are discussed and analysed to provide improvements in flight duration, performance and mobility of the UAV, while ensuring the accuracy and range of data from the wireless sensor system.

Comparison of the sensitivity of different sensor technologies to imbalance severity in low speed wind turbines

Imbalance is not only a direct major cause of downtime in wind turbines, but also accelerates the degradation of neighbouring and downstream components (e.g. main bearing, generator). Along with detection, the imbalance quantification is also essential as some residual imbalance always exist even in a healthy turbine. Three different commonly used sensor technologies (vibration, acoustic emission and electrical measurements) are investigated in this work to verify their sensitivity to different imbalance grades. This study is based on data obtained by experimental tests performed on a small scale wind turbine drive train test-rig for different shaft speeds and imbalance levels. According to the analysis results, electrical measurements seem to be the most suitable for tracking the development of imbalance.

Nash equilibrium based semantic cache in mobile sensor grid database systems

Mobile applications are being increasingly deployed on a massive scale in various mobile sensor grid database systems. With limited resources from the mobile devices, how to process the huge number of queries from mobile users with distributed sensor grid databases becomes a critical problem for such mobile systems. While the fundamental semantic cache technique has been investigated for query optimization in sensor grid database systems, the problem is still difficult due to the fact that more realistic multi-dimensional constraints have not been considered in existing methods. To solve the problem, a new semantic cache scheme is presented in this paper for location-dependent data queries in distributed sensor grid database systems. It considers multi-dimensional constraints or factors in a unified cost model architecture, determines the parameters of the cost model in the scheme by using the concept of Nash equilibrium from game theory, and makes semantic cache decisions from the established cost model. The scenarios of three factors of semantic, time and locations are investigated as special cases, which improve existing methods. Experiments are conducted to demonstrate the semantic cache scheme presented in this paper for distributed sensor grid database systems.