Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

Heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia : spatial variation and area-level predictors

Background: Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of illness and death in many locations across the globe, including subtropical Australia. The possibility of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves warrants continued efforts to reduce this health burden, which could be accomplished by targeting intervention measures toward the most vulnerable communities. Objectives: We sought to quantify spatial variability in heat-related morbidity in Brisbane, Australia, to highlight regions of the city with the greatest risk. We also aimed to find area-level social and environmental determinants of high risk within Brisbane. Methods: We used a series of hierarchical Bayesian models to examine city-wide and intracity associations between temperature and morbidity using a 2007–2011 time series of geographically referenced hospital admissions data. The models accounted for long-term time trends, seasonality, and day of week and holiday effects. Results: On average, a 10°C increase in daily maximum temperature during the summer was associated with a 7.2% increase in hospital admissions (95% CI: 4.7, 9.8%) on the following day. Positive statistically significant relationships between admissions and temperature were found for 16 of the city’s 158 areas; negative relationships were found for 5 areas. High-risk areas were associated with a lack of high income earners and higher population density. Conclusions: Geographically targeted public health strategies for extreme heat may be effective in Brisbane, because morbidity risk was found to be spatially variable. Emergency responders, health officials, and city planners could focus on short- and long-term intervention measures that reach communities in the city with lower incomes and higher population densities, including reduction of urban heat island effects.

Effects of driver familiarity and prolonged or intermittent right-side failure on level crossing safety

This paper investigates the adverse effects of familiarity and human factors issues associated with the reliability of low-cost warning devices at level crossings. The driving simulator study featured a repetitive, low workload, monotonous driving task in which there were no failures of the level crossing (control) or prolonged or intermittent right-side failures (where the device reverts to a safe failure mode). The results of the experiment provided mixed support for the familiarity hypothesis. Four of the 23 participants collided with the train when it first appeared on trial 10 but safety margins increased from the first train to the next presentation of a train (trial 12). Contrary to expectations, the safety margins decreased with repeated right-side failure only for the intermittent condition. The limited head movement data showed that participants in the prolonged failure condition were more likely to turn their head to check for trains in the right-side failure trials than in earlier trials where there was no signal and no train. Few control participants turned their head to check for trains when no signal was presented. This research highlights the need to consider repetitive tasks and workload in experimental design and accident investigation at railway level crossings.

Identification of genes important for growth of asymptomatic bacteriuria Escherichia coli in urine

Escherichia coli is the most important etiological agent of urinary tract infections (UTIs). Unlike uropathogenic E. coli, which causes symptomatic infections, asymptomatic bacteriuria (ABU) E. coli strains typically lack essential virulence factors and colonize the bladder in the absence of symptoms. While ABU E. coli can persist in the bladder for long periods of time, little is known about the genetic determinants required for its growth and fitness in urine. To identify such genes, we have employed a transposon mutagenesis approach using the prototypic ABU E. coli strain 83972 and the clinical ABU E. coli strain VR89. Six genes involved in the biosynthesis of various amino acids and nucleobases were identified (carB, argE, argC, purA, metE, and ilvC), and site-specific mutants were subsequently constructed in E. coli 83972 and E. coli VR89 for each of these genes. In all cases, these mutants exhibited reduced growth rates and final cell densities in human urine. The growth defects could be complemented in trans as well as by supplementation with the appropriate amino acid or nucleobase. When assessed in vivo in a mouse model, E. coli 83972carAB and 83972argC showed a significantly reduced competitive advantage in the bladder and/or kidney during coinoculation experiments with the parent strain, whereas 83972metE and 83972ilvC did not. Taken together, our data have identified several biosynthesis pathways as new important fitness factors associated with the growth of ABU E. coli in human urine.

Determination of urinary thymidine glycol using affinity chromatography, HPLC and post-column reaction detection : a biomarker of oxidative DNA damage upon kidney transplantation

Reactive oxygen species are generated during ischaemia-reperfusion of tissue. Oxidation of thymidine by hydroxyl radicals (HO) leads to the formation of 5,6-dihydroxy-5,6-dihydrothymidine (thymidine glycol). Thymidine glycol is excreted in urine and can be used as biomarker of oxidative DNA damage. Time dependent changes in urinary excretion rates of thymidine glycol were determined in six patients after kidney transplantation and in six healthy controls. A new analytical method was developed involving affinity chromatography and subsequent reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) with a post-column chemical reaction detector and endpoint fluorescence detection. The detection limit of this fluorimetric assay was 1.6 ng thymidine glycol per ml urine, which corresponds to about half of the physiological excretion level in healthy control persons. After kidney transplantation the urinary excretion rate of thymidine glycol increased gradually reaching a maximum around 48 h. The excretion rate remained elevated until the end of the observation period of 10 days. Severe proteinuria with an excretion rate of up to 7.2 g of total protein per mmol creatinine was also observed immediately after transplantation and declined within the first 24 h of allograft function (0.35 + 0.26 g/mmol creatinine). The protein excretion pattern, based on separation of urinary proteins on sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gel electrophorosis (SDS-PAGE), as well as excretion of individual biomarker proteins, indicated nonselective glomerular and tubular damage. The increased excretion of thymidine glycol after kidney transplantation may be explained by ischaemia-reperfusion induced oxidative DNA damage of the transplanted kidney.

Near-miss event detection at railway level crossings

Recent modelling of socio-economic costs by the Australian railway industry in 2010 has estimated the cost of level crossing accidents to exceed AU$116 million annually. To better understand the causal factors of these accidents, a video analytics application is being developed to automatically detect near-miss incidents using forward facing videos from trains. As near-miss events occur more frequently than collisions, by detecting these occurrences there will be more safety data available for analysis. The application that is being developed will improve the objectivity of near-miss reporting by providing quantitative data about the position of vehicles at level crossings through the automatic analysis of video footage. In this paper we present a novel method for detecting near-miss occurrences at railway level crossings from video data of trains. Our system detects and localizes vehicles at railway level crossings. It also detects the position of railways to calculate the distance of the detected vehicles to the railway centerline. The system logs the information about the position of the vehicles and railway centerline into a database for further analysis by the safety data recording and analysis system, to determine whether or not the event is a near-miss. We present preliminary results of our system on a dataset of videos taken from a train that passed through 14 railway level crossings. We demonstrate the robustness of our system by showing the results of our system on day and night videos.

Elevated level of inhibin-α subunit is pro-tumourigenic and pro-metastatic and associated with extracapsular spread in advanced prostate cancer

The biological function of inhibin-a subunit (INHa) in prostate cancer (PCa) is currently unclear. A recent study associated elevated levels of INHa in PCa patients with a higher risk of recurrence. This prompted us to use clinical specimens and functional studies to investigate the pro-tumourigenic and pro-metastatic function of INHa. We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine a link between INHa expression and a number of clinicopathological parameters including Gleason score, surgical margin, extracapsular spread, lymph node status and vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-3 expression, which are well-established prognostic factors of PCa. In addition, using two human PCa cell lines (LNCaP and PC3) representing androgen-dependent and -independent PCa respectively, we investigated the biological function of elevated levels of INHa in advanced cancer. Elevated expression of INHa in primary PCa tissues showed a higher risk of PCa patients being positive for clinicopathological parameters outlined above. Overexpressing INHa in LNCaP and PC3 cells demonstrated two different and cell-type-specific responses. INHa-positive LNCaP demonstrated reduced tumour growth whereas INHa-positive PC3 cells demonstrated increased tumour growth and metastasis through the process of lymphangiogenesis. This study is the first to demonstrate a pro-tumourigenic and pro-metastatic function for INHa associated with androgen-independent stage of metastatic prostate disease. Our results also suggest that INHa expression in the primary prostate tumour can be used as a predictive factor for prognosis of PCa.

Effect of chute level on mill capacity

IN MANY FACTORIES, the feed chute of the first mill is operated with a high chute level for the purpose of maximising the cane rate through the mill. There is a trend towards trying to control chute level within a small control range near the top of a chute that can result in rapid changes in cane feeding rate to maintain the chute level set point. This paper reviews the theory that predicts higher cane rate with higher chute level and discusses the main weakness in the theory that it does not consider the beneficial effect on capacity of cane falling from the top of the chute to the top surface of the cane mat. An extension to the chute theory model is described that predicts higher capacity with lower chute level because of the effect of the falling cane. The original model and this extended model are believed to be the upper and lower limits to the true effect. The paper reports an experiment that measured the real effect of chute level on capacity and finds that increasing chute level does lead to higher capacity but that the trend is only about one-third as strong as the original theory predicted. The paper questions whether the benefits of slightly greater capacity outweigh the costs of operating with the small control range near the top of the chute.

Human saliva as a tool to investigate intimate partner violence

Human saliva mirrors body’s health and well-being and many of the biomolecules present in blood or urine can also be found in salivary secretions. However, biomolecular concentrations in saliva are usually one tenth to one thousandth of the levels in blood (Pfaffe et al., 2011). Sensitive detection technology platforms are therefore required to detect biomolecules in saliva. Another road block to the advancement of salivary diagnostics is the lack of information related to healthy state saliva vs. a diseased saliva, baseline levels and reference ranges and diurnal variations. Saliva has numerous advantages over blood or urine as a diagnostic fluid: (a) the non-invasive nature of sample collection and the simple, safe, painless and cost-effective methods to collect it; (b) unskilled personnel can collect saliva samples at multiple time points; and (c) the total protein concentration is approximately a quarter of that is present in plasma, which makes it easier to investigate low abundance proteins (Pfaffe et al., 2011). Currently, saliva assays are routinely used to determine, diseases such as HIV, drugs and substances of abuse to provide information on exposure and give qualitative information on the type of illicit drug used (Kintz et al., 2009), cortisol levels for diagnosing Cushing’s syndrome (Doi et al., 2008), and use for biomonitoring of exposure to chemicals (Caporossi et al., 2010) to measure hormones (Gröschl, 2009)....

Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Supervisor conflict management, justice and strain : multi-level relationships

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test a multilevel model of the main and mediating effects of supervisor conflict management style (SCMS) climate and procedural justice (PJ) climate on employee strain. It is hypothesized that workgroup-level climate induced by SCMS can fall into four types: collaborative climate, yielding climate, forcing climate, or avoiding climate; that these group-level perceptions will have differential effects on employee strain, and will be mediated by PJ climate. Design/methodology/approach Multilevel SEM was used to analyze data from 420 employees nested in 61 workgroups. Findings Workgroups that perceived high supervisor collaborating climate reported lower sleep disturbance, job dissatisfaction, and action-taking cognitions. Workgroups that perceived high supervisor yielding climate and high supervisor forcing climate reported higher anxiety/depression, sleep disturbance, job dissatisfaction, and action-taking cognitions. Results supported a PJ climate mediation model when supervisors’ behavior was reported to be collaborative and yielding. Research limitations/implications The cross-sectional research design places limitations on conclusions about causality; thus, longitudinal studies are recommended. Practical implications Supervisor behavior in response to conflict may have far-reaching effects beyond those who are a party to the conflict. The more visible use of supervisor collaborative CMS may be beneficial. Social implications The economic costs associated with workplace conflict may be reduced through the application of these findings. Originality/value By applying multilevel theory and analysis, we extend workplace conflict theory.

Towards a theory of individual-level discontinuance of information systems use

I develop a model of individuals’ intentions to discontinue information system use. Understanding these intentions is important because they give insights into users’ willingness to carry out system tasks, and provide a basis for maintenance decisions as well as possible replacement decisions. I offer a first conceptualization of factors determining users’ discontinuance intentions on basis of existing literature on technology use, status quo bias and dual factor concepts. The model is grounded in rational choice theory to distinguish determinants of a conscious decision between continuing or discontinuing IS use. I provide details on the empirical test of the model through a field study of IS users in a retail organization. The work will have implications for theory on information systems continuance and dual-factor logic in information system use. The empirical findings will provide suggestions for managers dealing with cessation of information systems and work routine changes in organizations.