In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

An experimental study of the effects of work stress, work control, and task information on adjustment

The present study was designed to examine the main and interactive effects of task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. Task demands, work control, and task information were manipulated in an experimental setting where participants completed a letter-sorting activity (N= 128). Indicators of adjustment included measures of positive mood, participants' perceptions of task performance, and task satisfaction. Results of the present study provided some support for the main effects of objective task demands, work control, and task information on levels of adjustment. At the subjective level of analysis, there was some evidence to suggest that work control and task information interacted in their effects on levels of adjustment. There was minimal support for the proposal that work control and task information would buffer the negative effects of task demands on adjustment. There was, however, some evidence to suggest that the stress-buffering role of subjective work control was more marked at high, rather than low, levels of subjective task information.

An experimental investigation of moral commitments

This thesis explored the impact of non-contractual agreements in economic decisions. These statements of intent serve as a commitment device in strategic decisions and have been found to be an effective alternative to strong regulations in promoting social behaviour. Three studies have been undertaken using conceptual and methodological approaches from Behavioral and Experimental Economics. The first study explored in a public good setting the effect of public statements about intended social behaviour. The second study tested whether promises can help to promote co-operation in environments with uncertain choice options. The third study investigated a possible application of statement of intent and tested the effect of payment promises in a tax setting.

An empirical examination of the consequences of national pride: Analyses of survey and experimental data

National pride is both an important and understudied topic with respect to economic behaviour, hence this thesis investigates whether: 1) there is a "light" side of national pride through increased compliance, and a "dark" side linked to exclusion; 2) successful priming of national pride is linked to increased tax compliance; and 3) East German post-reunification outmigration is related to loyalty. The project comprises three related empirical studies, analysing evidence from a large, aggregated, international survey dataset; a tax compliance laboratory experiment combining psychological priming with measurement of heart rate variability; and data collected after the fall of the Berlin Wall (a situation approximating a natural experiment).

Pars pro toto: Experimental exhibition design and curatorial paradigms

'Pars pro toto: Experimental Exhibition Design and Curatorial Paradigms' is situated within the ongoing debate over the conflation of art and curating, and the subsequent tension between artistic autonomy and curatorial intervention. This practice-led research project acclimates these polarities using a collaborative and discursive curatorial methodology in the creation of two exhibitions. Both exhibitions, one digital and one primarily physical, investigated how the temporary exhibition can operate as a site for provocation, how the suggested methodology facilitates the relationship between artist and curator within this paradigm, and outlines factors that assist in expanding the definition of the contemporary curatorial role.

Experimental studies of lipped channel beams subject to web crippling under ETF and ITF load cases

Lipped channel beams (LCBs) are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in buildings. However, they are subjected to specific failure modes such as web crippling. Despite considerable web crippling research, recent studies [1-6] have shown that the current web crippling design rules are unable to predict the test capacities under ETF and ITF load cases. In many instances, the predictions by the available design standards such as AISI S100, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1-3 [7-9] are inconsistent. Hence thirty-six tests were conducted to assess the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LCBs under two flange load cases. Experimental web crippling capacities were then compared with the predictions from the current design rules. These comparisons showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design equations are very unconservative for LCB sections under ETF load case and are conservative for ITF load case. Hence improved equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LCBs. Suitable design rules were also developed using the direct strength method. This paper presents the details of this study and the results including improved design rules.

Soluble mediators in platelet concentrates modulate dendritic cell inflammatory responses in an experimental model of transfusion

The transfusion of platelet concentrates (PCs) is widely used to treat thrombocytopenia and severe trauma. Ex vivo storage of PCs is associated with a storage lesion characterized by partial platelet activation and the release of soluble mediators, such as soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L), RANTES, and interleukin (IL)-8. An in vitro whole blood culture transfusion model was employed to assess whether mediators present in PC supernatants (PC-SNs) modulated dendritic cell (DC)-specific inflammatory responses (intracellular staining) and the overall inflammatory response (cytometric bead array). Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) was included in parallel cultures to model the impact of PC-SNs on cell responses following toll-like receptor-mediated pathogen recognition. The impact of both the PC dose (10%, 25%) and ex vivo storage period was investigated [day 2 (D2), day 5 (D5), day 7 (D7)]. PC-SNs alone had minimal impact on DC-specific inflammatory responses and the overall inflammatory response. However, in the presence of LPS, exposure to PC-SNs resulted in a significant dose associated suppression of the production of DC IL-12, IL-6, IL-1a, tumor necrosis factor-a (TNF-a), and macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1b and storage-associated suppression of the production of DC IL-10, TNF-a, and IL-8. For the overall inflammatory response, IL-6, TNF-a, MIP-1a, MIP-1b, and inflammatory protein (IP)-10 were significantly suppressed and IL-8, IL-10, and IL-1b significantly increased following exposure to PC-SNs in the presence of LPS. These data suggest that soluble mediators present in PCs significantly suppress DC function and modulate the overall inflammatory response, particularly in the presence of an infectious stimulus. Given the central role of DCs in the initiation and regulation of the immune response, these results suggest that modulation of the DC inflammatory profile is a probable mechanism contributing to transfusion-related complications.

Patriotism’s impact on cooperation with the state: An experimental study on tax compliance

Although it seems reasonable to assume that activating patriotism might motivate citizens to cooperate with the state in reaching societal goals, the empirical evidence supporting this contention is based mostly on correlational rather than experimental studies. In addition, little is known on whether patriotism can be manipulated without simultaneously triggering nationalism and on the psychological processes which determine the patriotism-cooperation relation. This current article reports results of one survey and three experiments that manipulate patriotism by displaying either a national flag or national landscapes or by priming national achievements. The outcomes indicate that reported and manipulated patriotism indirectly increase tax compliance, although the national flag also increases nationalism. National achievements, on the other hand, seemingly increases trust in national public institutions and the voluntary motivation to cooperate, whereas national landscapes only increase the voluntary motivation to cooperate. Hence, it is possible to increase social capital in the form of trust and cooperation through patriotism without fostering nationalism as well.

A novel experimental method to assess industrial aerosol deposition in idealized porous channels

A novel and economical experimental technique has been developed to assess industrial aerosol deposition in various idealized porous channel configurations. This judicious examination on aerosol penetration in porous channels will assist engineers to better optimize designs for various engineering applications. Deposition patterns differ with porosity due to geometric configurations of the channel and superficial inlet velocities. Interestingly, it is found that two configurations of similar porosity exhibit significantly higher deposition fractions. Inertial impaction is profound at the leading edge of all obstacles, whereas particle build-up is observed at the trailing edge of the obstructions. A qualitative analysis shows that the numerical results are in good agreement with experimental results.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Ratcheting and wear behavior of Australian rail steel: Experimental investigation of material properties and sampling method

To The ratcheting behavior of high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) is studied in this work for the purpose of predicting wear and damage to the rail surface. Historically, researchers have used circular test coupons obtained from the rail head to conduct cyclic load tests, but according to hardness profile data, considerable variation exists across the rail head section. For example, the induction-hardened rail (AS1085.1) shows high hardness (400-430 HV100) up to four-millimeters into the rail head’s surface, but then drops considerably beyond that. Given that cyclic test coupons five millimeters in diameter at the gauge area are usually taken from the rail sample, there is a high probability that the original surface properties of the rail do not apply across the entire test coupon and, therefore, data representing only average material properties are obtained. In the literature, disks (47 mm in diameter) for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine have been obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such predictions? In this research paper, the effect of rail sampling position on the ratcheting behavior of AS1085.1 rail steel was investigated using rectangular shaped specimens. Uniaxial stress-controlled tests were conducted with samples obtained at four different depths to observe the ratcheting behaviour of each. Micro-hardness measurements of the test coupons were carried out to obtain a constitutive relationship to predict the effect of depth on the ratcheting behaviour of the rail material. This work ultimately assists the selection of valid material parameters for constitutive models in the study of rail surface ratcheting.

Experimental investigation of wear modes of hardened rail material used in Australian heavy-haul railways

This work investigates the effects of contact pressure and geometry in rolling-contact wear tests by using discs with different radii of curvature to simulate the varying contact conditions that may be typically found in the field. The tests were conducted without any significant amount of traction, but micro slip was still observed due to contact deformation. Moreover, variation of contact pressure was observed due to contact patch elongation and diameter reduction. Rolling contact fatigue, adhesive and sliding wear were observed on the curved contact interface. The development of different wear regimes and material removal phenomena were analyzed using microscopic images in order to broaden the understanding of the wear mechanisms occurring in the rail-wheel contact.

Induction of a Th1 immune response and suppression of IgE via immunotherapy with a recombinant hybrid molecule encapsulated in liposome-protamine-DNA nanoparticles in a model of experimental allergy

Liposome-protamine-DNA nanoparticles (LPD) are safe, effective, and non-toxic adjuvants that induce Th1-like immune responses. We hypothesized that encapsulation of allergens into liposomes could be an appropriate option for immunotherapy. The present study evaluated the immunotherapeutic potential of a recombinant hybrid molecule (rHM) encapsulated in LPD nanoparticles in a murine model of Chenopodium album allergy. BALB/c mice were sensitized with the allergen in alum, and the immunotherapy procedure was performed by subcutaneous injections of LPD-rHM, rHM, or empty LPD at weekly intervals. Sensitized mice developed a Th2-biased immune response characterized by strong specific IgG1 and IgE production, IL-4, and the transcription factor GATA3 in spleen cell cultures. Treatment with the LPD-rHM resulted in a reduction in IgE and a marked increase in IgG2a. The LPD-rHM induced allergen-specific responses with relatively high interferon-gamma production, as well as expression of the transcription factor T-bet in stimulated splenocytes. In addition, lymphoproliferative responses were higher in the LPD-rHM-treated mice than in the other groups. Removal of the nanoparticles from the rHM resulted in a decrease in the allergen's immunogenicity. These results indicate that the rHM complexed with LPD nanoparticles has a marked suppressive effect on the allergic response and caused a shift toward a Th1 pathway.

A principled experimental design approach to Big Data analysis

Big Datasets are endemic, but they are often notoriously difficult to analyse because of their size, heterogeneity, history and quality. The purpose of this paper is to open a discourse on the use of modern experimental design methods to analyse Big Data in order to answer particular questions of interest. By appealing to a range of examples, it is suggested that this perspective on Big Data modelling and analysis has wide generality and advantageous inferential and computational properties. In particular, the principled experimental design approach is shown to provide a flexible framework for analysis that, for certain classes of objectives and utility functions, delivers near equivalent answers compared with analyses of the full dataset under a controlled error rate. It can also provide a formalised method for iterative parameter estimation, model checking, identification of data gaps and evaluation of data quality. Finally, it has the potential to add value to other Big Data sampling algorithms, in particular divide-and-conquer strategies, by determining efficient sub-samples.