HMM triangle relative entropy concepts in sequential change detection applied to vision-based dim target manoeuvre detection

The quick detection of abrupt (unknown) parameter changes in an observed hidden Markov model (HMM) is important in several applications. Motivated by the recent application of relative entropy concepts in the robust sequential change detection problem (and the related model selection problem), this paper proposes a sequential unknown change detection algorithm based on a relative entropy based HMM parameter estimator. Our proposed approach is able to overcome the lack of knowledge of post-change parameters, and is illustrated to have similar performance to the popular cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm (which requires knowledge of the post-change parameter values) when examined, on both simulated and real data, in a vision-based aircraft manoeuvre detection problem.

Lost in translation (and rotation) : rapid extrinsic calibration for 2D and 3D LIDARs

This paper describes a novel method for determining the extrinsic calibration parameters between 2D and 3D LIDAR sensors with respect to a vehicle base frame. To recover the calibration parameters we attempt to optimize the quality of a 3D point cloud produced by the vehicle as it traverses an unknown, unmodified environment. The point cloud quality metric is derived from Rényi Quadratic Entropy and quantifies the compactness of the point distribution using only a single tuning parameter. We also present a fast approximate method to reduce the computational requirements of the entropy evaluation, allowing unsupervised calibration in vast environments with millions of points. The algorithm is analyzed using real world data gathered in many locations, showing robust calibration performance and substantial speed improvements from the approximations.

Determining the optimal proportion of design in design-build request for proposals (RFPs)

The design-build (DB) system is a popular and effective delivery method of construction projects worldwide. After owners decide to procure their projects through the DB system, they may wish to determine the optimal proportion of design to be provided in the DB request for proposals (RFPs), which serve as solicitations for design-builders and describe the scope of work. However, this presents difficulties to DB owners and there is little, if any, systematic research in this area. This paper reports on an empirical study in the USA entailing both an online questionnaire survey and Delphi survey to identify and evaluate the factors influencing owners’ decisions in determining the proportion of design to include in DB RFPs. Eleven factors are identified, i.e. (1) clarity of project scope; (2) applicability of performance specifications; (3) desire for design innovation; (4) site constraints; (5) availability of competent design-builders; (6) project control requirements; (7) user group involvement level; (8) third party requirements; (9) owner experience with DB; (10) project complexity; and (11) schedule constraints. A statistically significant agreement on the eleven factors was also obtained from the (mainly non-owner) Delphi experts. Although some of the experts hold different opinions on how these factors affect the proportion of design, these findings furnish various stakeholders with a better understanding of the delivery process of DB projects and the appropriate provision of project information in DB RFPs. As the result is mainly industry opinion concerning the optimal proportion of design, in addition and for completeness, future studies should be conducted to obtain a big picture of the optimal proportion of design by means of seeking owners’ inputs.

The developmental and acute phases of insulin-induced laminitis involve minimal metalloproteinase activity

Metalloproteinases have been implicated in the pathogenesis of equine laminitis and other inflammatory conditions, through their role in the degradation and remodelling of the extracellular matrix environment. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their inhibitors are present in normal equine lamellae, with increased secretion and activation of some metalloproteinases reported in horses with laminitis associated with systemic inflammation. It is unknown whether these enzymes are involved in insulin-induced laminitis, which occurs without overt systemic inflammation. In this study, gene expression of MMP-2, MMP-9, MT1-MMP, ADAMTS-4 and TIMP-3 was determined in the lamellar tissue of normal control horses (n = 4) and horses that developed laminitis after 48 h of induced hyperinsulinaemia (n = 4), using quantitative Real Time-Polymerase Chain Reaction (qRT-PCR). Protein concentrations of MMP-2 and MMP-9 were also examined using gelatin zymography in horses subject to prolonged hyperinsulinaemia for 6 h (n = 4), 12 h (n = 4), 24 h (n = 4) and 48 h (n = 4), and in normal control horses (n = 4). The only change in gene expression observed was an upregulation of MMP-9 (p < 0.05) in horses that developed insulin-induced laminitis (48 h). Zymographical analysis showed an increase (p < 0.05) in pro MMP-9 during the acute phase of laminitis (48 h), whereas pro MMP-2 was present in similar concentration in the tissue of all horses. Thus, MMP-2, MT1-MMP, TIMP-3 and ADAMTS-4 do not appear to play a significant role in the pathogenesis of insulin-induced laminitis. The increased expression of MMP-9 may be associated with the infiltration of inflammatory leukocytes, or may be a direct result of hyperinsulinaemia. The exact role of MMP-9 in basement membrane degradation in laminitis is uncertain as it appears to be present largely in the inactive form.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

PARP inhibition induces BAX/BAK-independent synthetic lethality of BRCA1-deficient non-small cell lung cancer

Evasion of apoptosis contributes to both tumourigenesis and drug resistance in non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). The pro-apoptotic BCL-2 family proteins BAX and BAK are critical regulators of mitochondrial apoptosis. New strategies for targeting NSCLC in a mitochondria-independent manner should bypass this common mechanism of apoptosis block. BRCA1 mutation frequency in lung cancer is low; however, decreased BRCA1 mRNA and protein expression levels have been reported in a significant proportion of lung adenocarcinomas. BRCA1 mutation/deficiency confers a defect in homologous recombination DNA repair that has been exploited by synthetic lethality through inhibition of PARP (PARPi) in breast and ovarian cells; however, it is not known whether this same synthetic lethal mechanism exists in NSCLC cells. Additionally, it is unknown whether the mitochondrial apoptotic pathway is required for BRCA1/PARPi-mediated synthetic lethality. Here we demonstrate that silencing of BRCA1 expression by RNA interference sensitizes NSCLC cells to PARP inhibition. Importantly, this sensitivity was not attenuated in cells harbouring mitochondrial apoptosis block induced by co-depletion of BAX and BAK. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRCA1 inhibition cannot override platinum resistance, which is often mediated by loss of mitochondrial apoptosis signalling, but can still sensitize to PARP inhibition. Finally we demonstrate the existence of a BRCA1-deficient subgroup (11–19%) of NSCLC patients by analysing BRCA1 protein levels using immunohistochemistry in two independent primary NSCLC cohorts. Taken together, the existence of BRCA1-immunodeficient NSCLC suggests that this molecular subgroup could be effectively targeted by PARP inhibitors in the clinic and that PARP inhibitors could be used for the treatment of BRCA1-immunodeficient, platinum-resistant tumours.

A comparison of methods for classifying clinical samples based on proteomics data : a case study for statistical and machine learning approaches

The discovery of protein variation is an important strategy in disease diagnosis within the biological sciences. The current benchmark for elucidating information from multiple biological variables is the so called “omics” disciplines of the biological sciences. Such variability is uncovered by implementation of multivariable data mining techniques which come under two primary categories, machine learning strategies and statistical based approaches. Typically proteomic studies can produce hundreds or thousands of variables, p, per observation, n, depending on the analytical platform or method employed to generate the data. Many classification methods are limited by an n≪p constraint, and as such, require pre-treatment to reduce the dimensionality prior to classification. Recently machine learning techniques have gained popularity in the field for their ability to successfully classify unknown samples. One limitation of such methods is the lack of a functional model allowing meaningful interpretation of results in terms of the features used for classification. This is a problem that might be solved using a statistical model-based approach where not only is the importance of the individual protein explicit, they are combined into a readily interpretable classification rule without relying on a black box approach. Here we incorporate statistical dimension reduction techniques Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) followed by both statistical and machine learning classification methods, and compared them to a popular machine learning technique, Support Vector Machines (SVM). Both PLS and SVM demonstrate strong utility for proteomic classification problems.

Unique residues involved in activation of the multitasking protease/chaperone HtrA from Chlamydia trachomatis

DegP, a member of the HtrA family of proteins, conducts critical bacterial protein quality control by both chaperone and proteolysis activities. The regulatory mechanisms controlling these two distinct activities, however, are unknown. DegP activation is known to involve a unique mechanism of allosteric binding, conformational changes and oligomer formation. We have uncovered a novel role for the residues at the PDZ1:protease interface in oligomer formation specifically for chaperone substrates of Chlamydia trachomatis HtrA (DegP homolog). We have demonstrated that CtHtrA proteolysis could be activated by allosteric binding and oligomer formation. The PDZ1 activator cleft was required for the activation and oligomer formation. However, unique to CtHtrA was the critical role for residues at the PDZ1:protease interface in oligomer formation when the activator was an in vitro chaperone substrate. Furthermore, a potential in vivo chaperone substrate, the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) from Chlamydia, was able to activate CtHtrA and induce oligomer formation. Therefore, we have revealed novel residues involved in the activation of CtHtrA which are likely to have important in vivo implications for outer membrane protein assembly.

Front page schools, back page schools : a case study of factors perceived to affect academic performance in five Papua New Guinea secondary schools

Papua New Guinea has reformed its colonial established education system and made huge investments with the help of donors to achieve equal access and quality education for all its citizens. Despite this national aspiration and these policy reforms and investments, secondary schools that enrol grade 9 students who are relatively equal in education ability show huge disparities in their grade 10 academic performances. This study examined perceptions of students, teachers and principals regarding factors affecting the disparity in academic performance in the context of a developing country. The central question for the study is: What are the perceptions of students and teachers of the factors that affect disparities in secondary schools' academic performance? This qualitative case study involved two high and three low academic performing secondary schools in Western Highlands Province of Papua New Guinea. Primary data were collected through focus groups and semi-structured interviews involving 112 participants. Students and teachers are key participants in this study, as it intends to find out the realities of schools, yet they are an under-researched group. A postcolonial and sense of community conceptual framework was developed for the analysis of the participants. perceptions. In addition, scholarship on school effectiveness and equity in education informed the interpretation of the findings. Three themes were evident in participants. views. First, participants expressed their view that differences in academic performance were related to the adequacy and equitability of resources. The inequities in resource inputs led some of them to coin the metaphor of .back page and front page. schools. Second, many expressed the view that deficiencies in implementing bilingual education, given the difficulty of catering for 800 vernacular languages, contribute to poor English proficiency and subsequent poor academic performance. Finally, participants believed that, in order to have a positive school culture, it is necessary for educators to recognise and respect contemporary students. identities, communal/tribal membership and needs. This study has implications for national education policy on resource allocation to address equality and equity, bilingual education and teacher education. Moreover, as the study found that high academic performance in this context is also influenced by intra-school social relationships, these relationships need to be nurtured. When appropriately nurtured, they become an important factor in sustaining quality education for all secondary school students. This thesis has laid the foundations for further research and invites further investigations into policy and implementation of school reforms aimed at improving academic achievement.

Experimental evaluation of MCDTK, the Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit

The Monte Carlo DICOM Tool-Kit (MCDTK) is a software suite designed for treatment plan dose verification, using the BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc Monte Carlo codes. MCDTK converts DICOM-format treatment plan information into Monte Carlo input files and compares the results of Monte Carlo treatment simulations with conventional treatment planning dose calculations. In this study, a treatment is planned using a commercial treatment planning system, delivered to a pelvis phantom containing ten thermoluminescent dosimeters and simulated using BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc using inputs derived from MCDTK. The dosimetric accuracy of the Monte Carlo data is then evaluated via comparisons with the dose distribution obtained from the treatment planning system as well as the in-phantom point dose measurements. The simulated beam arrangement produced by MCDTK is found to be in geometric agreement with the planned treatment. An isodose display generated from the Monte Carlo data by MCDTK shows general agreement with the isodose display obtained from the treatment planning system, except for small regions around density heterogeneities in the phantom, where the pencil-beam dose calculation performed by the treatment planning systemis likely to be less accurate. All point dose measurements agree with the Monte Carlo data obtained using MCDTK, within confidence limits, and all except one of these point dose measurements show closer agreement with theMonte Carlo data than with the doses calculated by the treatment planning system. This study provides a simple demonstration of the geometric and dosimetric accuracy ofMonte Carlo simulations based on information from MCDTK.

The developmental consequences of rare chromosome disorders : two case reports

Aim: As molecular and cytogenetic testing becomes increasingly sophisticated, more individuals are being diagnosed with rare chromosome disorders. Yet despite a burgeoning knowledge about biomedical aspects, little is known about implications for psychosocial development. The scant literature gives a general impression of deficits and adverse developmental outcomes. Method: Developmental data were obtained from two 16 year olds diagnosed with a rare chromosome disorder – a girl with 8p23.1 and a boy with 16q11.2q12.1. Measures of intellectual ability, academic achievement, and other aspects of functioning were administered at multiple time points from early childhood to adolescence. Results: Both adolescents experienced initial delays in motor and language development. Although the girl’s intelligence is assessed as being in the average range, she experiences difficulties with motor planning, spelling and writing. The boy has been diagnosed with a mild intellectual disability and demonstrates mild autistic features. Conclusions: The two case descriptions are in marked contrast to the published literature about these two chromosome anomalies. Both adolescents are developing much more positively than would be expected on the basis of the grim predictions of their paediatricians and the negative reports in the literature. It is concluded that, for most rare chromosome disorders, the range of possible developmental outcomes is currently unknown.

Symmetry of in-shoe force signatures in athletes under field conditions : an application for injury prevention

The aetiology behind overuse injuries such as stress fractures is complex and multi-factorial. In sporting events where the loading is likely to be uneven (e.g. hurdling and jumps), research has suggested that the frequency of stress fractures seems to favour the athlete’s dominant limb. The tendency for an individual to have a preferred limb for voluntary motor acts makes limb selection a possible factor behind the development of unilateral overuse injuries, particularly when repeatedly used during high loading activities. The event of sprint hurdling is well suited for the study of loading asymmetry as the hurdling technique is repetitive and the limb movement asymmetrical. Of relevance to this study is the high incidence of Navicular Stress Fractures (NSF) in hurdlers, with suggestions there is a tendency for the fracture to develop in the trail leg foot, although this is not fully accepted. The Ground Reaction Force (GRF) with each foot contact is influenced by the hurdle action, with research finding step-to-step loading variations. However, it is unknown if this loading asymmetry extends to individual forefoot joints, thereby influencing stress fracture development. The first part of the study involved a series of investigations using a commercially available matrix style in-shoe sensor system (FscanTM, Tekscan Inc.). The suitability of insole sensor systems and custom made discrete sensors for use in hurdling-related training activities was assessed. The methodology used to analyse foot loading with each technology was investigated. The insole and discrete sensors systems tested proved to be unsuitable for use during full pace hurdling. Instead, a running barrier task designed to replicate the four repetitive foot contacts present during hurdling was assessed. This involved the clearance of a series of 6 barriers (low training hurdles), place in a straight line, using 4 strides between each. The second part of the study involved the analysis of "inter-limb" and "within foot loading asymmetries" using stance duration as well as vertical GRF under the Hallux (T1), the first metatarsal head (M1) and the central forefoot peak pressure site (M2), during walking, running, and running with barrier clearances. The contribution to loading asymmetry that each of the four repetitive foot contacts made during a series of barrier clearances was also assessed. Inter-limb asymmetry, in forefoot loading, occurred at discrete forefoot sites in a non-uniform manner across the three gait conditions. When the individual barrier foot contacts were compared, the stance duration was asymmetrical and the proportion of total forefoot load at M2 was asymmetrical. There were no significant differences between the proportion of forefoot load at M1, compared to M2; for any of the steps involved in the barrier clearance. A case study testing experimental (discrete) sensors during full pace sprinting and hurdling found that during both gait conditions, the trail limb experienced the greater vertical GRF at M1 and M2. During full pace hurdling, increased stance duration and vertical loading was a characteristic of the trail limb hurdle foot contacts. Commercially available in-shoe systems are not suitable for on field assessment of full pace hurdling. For the use of discrete sensor technology to become commonplace in the field, more robust sensors need to be developed.

Dynamics of rod and cone photoreceptor interactions under mesopic light levels

Visual adaptation regulates contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions (Crawford, 1947; Hecht, Haig & Chase, 1937). These adaptation dynamics are unknown under dim (mesopic) light levels when the rod (R) and long (L), medium (M) and short (S) wavelength cone photoreceptor classes contribute to vision via interactions in shared non-opponent Magnocellular (MC), chromatically opponent Parvocellular (PC) and Koniocellular (KC) visual pathways (Dacey, 2000). This study investigated the time-course of adaptation and post-receptoral pathways mediating receptor specific rod and cone interactions under mesopic illumination. A four-primary photostimulator (Pokorny, Smithson & Quinlan, 2004) was used to independently control the activity of the four photoreceptor classes and their post-receptoral visual athways in human observers. In the first experiment, the contrast sensitivity and time-course of visual adaptation under mesopic illumination were measured for receptoral (L, S, R) and post-receptoral (LMS, LMSR, L-M) stimuli. An incremental (Rapid-ON) sawtooth conditioning pulse biased detection to ON-cells within the visual pathways and sensitivity was assayed relative to pulse onset using a briefly presented incremental probe that did not alter adaptation. Cone.Cone interactions with luminance stimuli (L cone, LMS, LMSR) reduced sensitivity by 15% and the time course of recovery was 25± 5ms-1 (μ ± SEM). PC mediated (+L-M) chromatic stimuli sensitivity loss was less (8%) than for luminance and recovery was slower (μ = 2.95 ± 0.05 ms-1), with KC mediated (S cone) chromatic stimuli showing a high sensitivity loss (38%) and the slowest recovery time (1.6 ± 0.2 ms-1). Rod-Rod interactions increased sensitivity by 20% and the time course of recovery was 0.7 ± 0.2 ms-1 (μ ± SD). Compared to these interaction types, Rod-Cone interactions reduced sensitivity to a lesser degree (5%) and showed the fastest recovery (μ = 43 ± 7 ms-1). In the second experiment, rod contribution to the magnocellular, parvocellular and koniocellular post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination was determined as a function of incremental stimulus duration and waveform (rectangular; sawtooth) using a rod colour match procedure (Cao, Pokorny & Smith, 2005; Cao, Pokorny, Smith & Zele, 2008a). For a 30% rod increment, a cone match required a decrease in [L/(L+M)] and an increase in [L+M] and [S/(L+M)], giving a greenish-blue and brighter appearance for probe durations of 75 ms or longer. Probe durations less than 75 ms showed an increase in [L+M] and no change in chromaticity [L/(L+M) or S/(L+M)], uggesting mediation by the MC pathway only for short duration rod stimuli. s We advance previous studies by determining the time-course and nature of photoreceptor specific retinal interactions in the three post-receptoral pathways under mesopic illumination. In the first experiment, the time-course of adaptation for ON cell processing was determined, revealing opponent cell facilitation in chromatic PC and KC pathways. The Rod-Rod and Rod-Cone data identify previously unknown interaction types that act to maintain contrast sensitivity during dynamically changing light conditions and improve the speed of light adaptation under mesopic light levels. The second experiment determined the degree of rod contribution to the inferred post-eceptoral pathways as a function of the temporal properties of the rod signal. r The understanding of the mechanisms underlying interactions between photoreceptors under mesopic illumination has implications for the study of retinal disease. Visual function has been shown to be reduced in persons with age-related maculopathy (ARM) risk genotypes prior to clinical signs of the disease (Feigl, Cao, Morris & Zele, 2011) and disturbances in rod-mediated adaptation have been shown in early phases of ARM (Dimitrov, Guymer, Zele, Anderson & Vingrys, 2008; Feigl, Brown, Lovie-Kitchin & Swann, 2005). Also, the understanding of retinal networks controlling vision enables the development of international lighting standards to optimise visual performance nder dim light levels (e.g. work-place environments, transportation).

Forecasting volatility and correlation : the role of option implied measures

Forecasts of volatility and correlation are important inputs into many practical financial problems. Broadly speaking, there are two ways of generating forecasts of these variables. Firstly, time-series models apply a statistical weighting scheme to historical measurements of the variable of interest. The alternative methodology extracts forecasts from the market traded value of option contracts. An efficient options market should be able to produce superior forecasts as it utilises a larger information set of not only historical information but also the market equilibrium expectation of options market participants. While much research has been conducted into the relative merits of these approaches, this thesis extends the literature along several lines through three empirical studies. Firstly, it is demonstrated that there exist statistically significant benefits to taking the volatility risk premium into account for the implied volatility for the purposes of univariate volatility forecasting. Secondly, high-frequency option implied measures are shown to lead to superior forecasts of the intraday stochastic component of intraday volatility and that these then lead on to superior forecasts of intraday total volatility. Finally, the use of realised and option implied measures of equicorrelation are shown to dominate measures based on daily returns.

Distribution feeder loads classification and decomposition

Load in distribution networks is normally measured at the 11kV supply points; little or no information is known about the type of customers and their contributions to the load. This paper proposes statistical methods to decompose an unknown distribution feeder load to its customer load sector/subsector profiles. The approach used in this paper should assist electricity suppliers in economic load management, strategic planning and future network reinforcements.