Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

A stochastic neighborhood conditional autoregressive model for spatial data

A spatial process observed over a lattice or a set of irregular regions is usually modeled using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model. The neighborhoods within a CAR model are generally formed deterministically using the inter-distances or boundaries between the regions. An extension of CAR model is proposed in this article where the selection of the neighborhood depends on unknown parameter(s). This extension is called a Stochastic Neighborhood CAR (SNCAR) model. The resulting model shows flexibility in accurately estimating covariance structures for data generated from a variety of spatial covariance models. Specific examples are illustrated using data generated from some common spatial covariance functions as well as real data concerning radioactive contamination of the soil in Switzerland after the Chernobyl accident.

A spatial-indexing model for measuring neighbourhood-level land-use and transport integration

Significant attention has been given in urban policy literature to the integration of land-use and transport planning and policies—with a view to curbing sprawling urban form and diminishing externalities associated with car-dependent travel patterns. By taking land-use and transport interaction into account, this debate mainly focuses on how a successful integration can contribute to societal well-being, providing efficient and balanced economic growth while accomplishing the goal of developing sustainable urban environments and communities. The integration is also a focal theme of contemporary urban development models, such as smart growth, liveable neighbourhoods, and new urbanism. Even though available planning policy options for ameliorating urban form and transport-related externalities have matured—owing to growing research and practice worldwide—there remains a lack of suitable evaluation models to reflect on the current status of urban form and travel problems or on the success of implemented integration policies. In this study we explore the applicability of indicator-based spatial indexing to assess land-use and transport integration at the neighbourhood level. For this, a spatial index is developed by a number of indicators compiled from international studies and trialled in Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. The results of this modelling study reveal that it is possible to propose an effective metric to determine the success level of city plans considering their sustainability performance via composite indicator methodology. The model proved useful in demarcating areas where planning intervention is applicable, and in identifying the most suitable locations for future urban development and plan amendments. Lastly, we integrate variance-based sensitivity analysis with the spatial indexing method, and discuss the applicability of the model in other urban contexts.

"The Stratified Record upon Which We Set Our Feet" : The Spatial Turn and the Multilayering of History, Geography, and Geology

In Thomas Mann’s tetralogy of the 1930s and 1940s, Joseph and His Brothers, the narrator declares history is not only “that which has happened and that which goes on happening in time,” but it is also “the stratified record upon which we set our feet, the ground beneath us.” By opening up history to its spatial, geographical, and geological dimensions Mann both predicts and encapsulates the twentieth-century’s “spatial turn,” a critical shift that divested geography of its largely passive role as history’s “stage” and brought to the fore intersections between the humanities and the earth sciences. In this paper, I draw out the relationships between history, narrative, geography, and geology revealed by this spatial turn and the questions these pose for thinking about the disciplinary relationship between geography and the humanities. As Mann’s statement exemplifies, the spatial turn itself has often been captured most strikingly in fiction, and I would argue nowhere more so than in Graham Swift’s Waterland (1983) and Anne Michaels’s Fugitive Pieces (1996), both of which present space, place, and landscape as having a palpable influence on history and memory. The geographical/geological line that runs through both Waterland and Fugitive Pieces continues through Tim Robinson’s non-fictional, two-volume “topographical” history Stones of Aran. Robinson’s Stones of Aran—which is not history, not geography, and not literature, and yet is all three—constructs an imaginative geography that renders inseparable geography, geology, history, memory, and the act of writing.

Spatial metaphor as spatial technique in the work of Michel Foucault

This essay argues that the deployment of spatial metaphor in the writing of Michel Foucault is indivisible from his spatial politics. Beginning with his 1967 essay "Of Other Spaces," the development of Foucault's spatial politics and his growing awareness of the importance to his work of spatial (particularly geographic) metaphors can be charted. The focus here is not the concretisation of Foucault's early spatial obsessions—particularly with regard to the concept of "heterotopia"—into a theory or model. Rather, I am concerned with the way in which those obsessions inform Foucault's major works, in particular The Archaeology of Knowledge and Discipline and Punish. These works, I argue, do not develop a theory of space, but instead perform, through their rhetoric, a kind of spatial praxis. In this sense, Foucault's metaphors become "spatial techniques" for the practice and production of power–knowledge.

Characteristics of spatial variation, size distribution, formation and growth of particles in urban environments

This thesis is the first comprehensive study of important parameters relating to aerosols' impact on climate and human health, namely spatial variation, particle size distribution and new particle formation. We determined the importance of spatial variation of particle number concentration in microscale environments, developed a method for particle size parameterisation and provided knowledge about the chemistry of new particle formation. This is a significant contribution to our understanding of processes behind the transformation and dynamics of urban aerosols. This PhD project included extensive measurements of air quality parameters using state of the art instrumentation at each of the 25 sites within the Brisbane metropolitan area and advanced statistical analysis.

Socio-technological phishing prevention

Phishing is deceptive collection of personal information leading to embezzlement, identity theft, and so on. Preventive and combative measures have been taken by banking institutions, software vendors, and network authorities to fight phishing. At the forefront of this resilience are consortiums such as APWG (Anti-Phishing Working Group) and PhishTank, the latter being a collaborative platform where everyone can submit potentially phishing web-pages and classify web-pages as either phish or genuine. PhishTank also has an API that the browsers use to notify users when she tries to load a phishing page. There are some organizations and individuals who are very active and highly accurate in classifying web-pages on PhishTank. In this paper, we propose a defense model that uses these experts to fight phishing.

The role of the market sub-system and the socio-technical sub-system in innovation and firm performance : a dynamic capabilities approach

Organizational learning has been studied as a key factor in firm performance and internationalization. Moving beyond the past emphasis on market learning, we develop a more complete explanation of learning, its relationship to innovation, and their joint effect on early internationalization. We theorize that, driven by the founders’ international vision, early internationalizing firms employ a dual subsystem of dynamic capabilities: a market subsystem consisting of market-focused learning capability and marketing capability, and a socio-technical subsystem comprised of network learning capability and internally focused learning capability. We argue that innovation mediates the proposed relationship between the dynamic capability structure and early internationalization. We conduct case studies to develop the conceptual framework and test it in a field survey of early internationalizing firms from Australia and the United States. Our findings indicate a complex interplay of capabilities driving innovation and early internationalization. We provide theoretical and practical implications and offer insights for future research.

Curriculum to the classroom : investigating the spatial practices of curriculum implementation in Queensland schools and its implications for teacher education

Change is something that both pre-service and practising teachers face regularly throughout their professional lives. Curriculum change and consequential implementation is a case in point. This paper investigates the perspectives of a number of school-based stakeholders in regard to the implementation of the C2C materials in Queensland schools and how this has potential consequences for teacher education programs. It shows that often contradictory spaces emerge in regard to curriculum enactment and argues that a ‘one size fits all’ approach is not the most effective way to implement new curriculum. A transformative third space is offered whereby teachers are accorded with a voice in the way in which implementation occurs; ultimately allowing pre-service teachers to learn important skills required to be effective teachers.

Knowledge and the City : Concepts, Applications and Trends of Knowledge-Based Urban Development

This book underlines the growing importance of knowledge for the competitiveness of cities and their regions. Examining the role of knowledge - in its economic, socio-cultural, spatial and institutional forms - for urban and regional development, identifying the preconditions for innovative use of urban and regional knowledge assets and resources, and developing new methods to evaluate the performance and potential of knowledge-based urban and regional development, the book provides an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of both theoretical and practical aspects of knowledge-based development and its implications and prospects for cities and regions.

Socio-demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyle factors, and health as predictors of mental health in midlife and older Australian women: a multilevel investigation

Background Poor mental health is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, yet debate continues about factors most likely to predict poor mental health outcomes. Objective This cohort study examines the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors, menopausal symptoms, and physical health on the mental health of midlife and older Australian women. Methods: Random sampling was used to recruit women aged 40-55, from rural and urban areas of Queensland, Australia. Overall, 340 women completed mailed surveys on socio-demographic characteristics, midlife symptoms (Greene Climacteric Scale©), modifiable lifestyle factors, and mental health (SF-12©) in 2001, 2004 and 2011. Hierarchical repeated-measure models were used to explore the correlates of poor mental health over time. Results The mean age [SD] at baseline was 55 [2.7] years, most were married (73%, n=248) and 18% were pre-menopausal. The model suggested that variance in mental health widened and showed a non-linear increase with age. Decrements in mental health were associated with an increase in midlife symptoms (Greene psychological scale, P <0.01; Greene somatic scale, P <0.05), time (P <0.01), poor physical health (P <0.01) and individual variance (P <0.01). Socio-demographics and lifestyle factors had little influence on mental health over time. Conclusion Findings suggest that while women’s mental health may decline during midlife, the effect is temporary; in older women, physical health and individual factors seem to be increasingly significant. This research highlights the importance of active health promotion as a means of enhancing both physical and mental health in midlife women.

Feral pig populations are structured at fine spatial scales in tropical Queensland, Australia

Feral pigs occur throughout tropical far north Queensland, Australia and are a significant threat to biodiversity and World Heritage values, agriculture and are a vector of infectious diseases. One of the constraints on long-lasting, local eradication of feral pigs is the process of reinvasion into recently controlled areas. This study examined the population genetic structure of feral pigs in far north Queensland to identify the extent of movement and the scale at which demographically independent management units exist. Genetic analysis of 328 feral pigs from the Innisfail to Tully region of tropical Queensland was undertaken. Seven microsatellite loci were screened and Bayesian clustering methods used to infer population clusters. Sequence variation at the mitochondrial DNA control region was examined to identify pig breed. Significant population structure was identified in the study area at a scale of 25 to 35 km, corresponding to three demographically independent management units (MUs). Distinct natural or anthropogenic barriers were not found, but environmental features such as topography and land use appear to influence patterns of gene flow. Despite the strong, overall pattern of structure, some feral pigs clearly exhibited ancestry from a MU outside of that from which they were sampled indicating isolated long distance dispersal or translocation events. Furthermore, our results suggest that gene flow is restricted among pigs of domestic Asian and European origin and non-random mating influences management unit boundaries. We conclude that the three MUs identified in this study should be considered as operational units for feral pig control in far north Queensland. Within a MU, coordinated and simultaneous control is required across farms, rainforest areas and National Park Estates to prevent recolonisation from adjacent localities.

Personal media and wireless cities : towards an urban spatial analysis

For the past decade, at least, varieties of small, hand held networked instruments have appeared on the global scene, selling in record numbers, and being utilized by all manner of persons from the old to the young; children, women, men, the wealthy and the poor and in all countries. Their presences bespeak a radical shift in telecommunications infrastructure and the future of communications. They are particularly visible in urban areas where mobile transmission network infrastructure (3G, 4G, cellular and Wi-Fi) is more established and substantial, options more plentiful, and density of populations more dramatic. These end user products—I phones, cell phones, Blackberries, DSi, DS, IPads, Zooms, and others – of the mobile communications industry are the latest, hottest globalized commodities. At the same time, wirelessness, or the state of being wireless, and therefore capable of taking along one's networks, communicating from unlikely spaces, and navigating with GPS, is a complex social, political and economic communications phenomenon of early 21st century life. This thesis examines the specter of being wireless in cities. It lends the entire idea an experimentally envisioned, historical and planned context wherein personalization of media tools is seen both as a design development of corporate, artistic, and military imagination, as well as a profound social phenomenon enabling new forms of sharing, belonging, and urban community. In doing that it asserts the parameters of a new mobile space which, aside from clear benefits to humankind by way of mobility, has reinscribed numerous categories including gender. Moreover, it posits the recognition of other, more nuanced theoretical spaces for complex readings of gender and gendered use, including some instantiation of the notion of 'network' itself as a cyborgian and gendered social form. Additionally, cities are studied as places where technology is not only quickly popularized, but is connected to larger political interests, such as the reading of data, tracking of information, and the new security culture. In so doing the work has been undertaken as an urban spatial analysis and experimental ethnography, utilizing architectural, feminist, techno-utopian, industrial and theoretical literatures as discursive underpinnings from whence understandings and interpretations of mobile space, the mobile office, networked mobility, and personal media have come, linking the space of cities to specific, pioneering urban public art projects in which voice, texting and MMS have been utilized in expressions of ubiquitous networks and urban history. Through numerous examples of techno art, the thesis discusses the 'wireless city' as an emerging cultural, socially constructed economic and spatial entity, both conceived and formed through historic processes of urbanization.

Characterising the spatial dynamics of sympatric Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus populations in the Philippines

Entomological surveillance and control are essential to the management of dengue fever (DF). Hence, understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of DF vectors, Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse), is paramount. In the Philippines, resources are limited and entomological surveillance and control are generally commenced during epidemics, when transmission is difficult to control. Recent improvements in spatial epidemiological tools and methods offer opportunities to explore more efficient DF surveillance and control solutions: however, there are few examples in the literature from resource-poor settings. The objectives of this study were to: (i) explore spatial patterns of Aedes populations and (ii) predict areas of high and low vector density to inform DF control in San Jose village, Muntinlupa city, Philippines. Fortnightly, adult female Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 50 double-sticky ovitraps (SOs) located in San Jose village for the period June-November 2011. Spatial clustering analysis was performed to identify high and low density clusters of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Spatial autocorrelation was assessed by examination of semivariograms, and ordinary kriging was undertaken to create a smoothed surface of predicted vector density in the study area. Our results show that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were present in San Jose village during the study period. However, one Aedes species was dominant in a given geographic area at a time, suggesting differing habitat preferences and interspecies competition between vectors. Density maps provide information to direct entomological control activities and advocate the development of geographically enhanced surveillance and control systems to improve DF management in the Philippines.