Predicting project performance through neural networks

Successful project delivery of construction projects depends on many factors. With regard to the construction of a facility, selecting a competent contractor for the job is paramount. As such, various approaches have been advanced to facilitate tender award decisions. Essentially, this type of decision involves the prediction of a bidderÕs performance based on information available at the tender stage. A neural network based prediction model was developed and presented in this paper. Project data for the study were obtained from the Hong Kong Housing Department. Information from the tender reports was used as input variables and performance records of the successful bidder during construction were used as output variables. It was found that the networks for the prediction of performance scores for Works gave the highest hit rate. In addition, the two most sensitive input variables toward such prediction are ‘‘Difference between Estimate’’ and ‘‘Difference between the next closest bid’’. Both input variables are price related, thus suggesting the importance of tender sufficiency for the assurance of quality production.

Investigation into submicrometer particle and gaseous emissions from airport ground running procedures

Emissions from airport operations are of significant concern because of their potential impact on local air quality and human health. The currently limited scientific knowledge of aircraft emissions is an important issue worldwide, when considering air pollution associated with airport operation, and this is especially so for ultrafine particles. This limited knowledge is due to scientific complexities associated with measuring aircraft emissions during normal operations on the ground. In particular this type of research has required the development of novel sampling techniques which must take into account aircraft plume dispersion and dilution as well as the various particle dynamics that can affect the measurements of the aircraft engine plume from an operational aircraft. In order to address this scientific problem, a novel mobile emission measurement method called the Plume Capture and Analysis System (PCAS), was developed and tested. The PCAS permits the capture and analysis of aircraft exhaust during ground level operations including landing, taxiing, takeoff and idle. The PCAS uses a sampling bag to temporarily store a sample, providing sufficient time to utilize sensitive but slow instrumental techniques to be employed to measure gas and particle emissions simultaneously and to record detailed particle size distributions. The challenges in relation to the development of the technique include complexities associated with the assessment of the various particle loss and deposition mechanisms which are active during storage in the PCAS. Laboratory based assessment of the method showed that the bag sampling technique can be used to accurately measure particle emissions (e.g. particle number, mass and size distribution) from a moving aircraft or vehicle. Further assessment of the sensitivity of PCAS results to distance from the source and plume concentration was conducted in the airfield with taxiing aircraft. The results showed that the PCAS is a robust method capable of capturing the plume in only 10 seconds. The PCAS is able to account for aircraft plume dispersion and dilution at distances of 60 to 180 meters downwind of moving a aircraft along with particle deposition loss mechanisms during the measurements. Characterization of the plume in terms of particle number, mass (PM2.5), gaseous emissions and particle size distribution takes only 5 minutes allowing large numbers of tests to be completed in a short time. The results were broadly consistent and compared well with the available data. Comprehensive measurements and analyses of the aircraft plumes during various modes of the landing and takeoff (LTO) cycle (e.g. idle, taxi, landing and takeoff) were conducted at Brisbane Airport (BNE). Gaseous (NOx, CO2) emission factors, particle number and mass (PM2.5) emission factors and size distributions were determined for a range of Boeing and Airbus aircraft, as a function of aircraft type and engine thrust level. The scientific complexities including the analysis of the often multimodal particle size distributions to describe the contributions of different particle source processes during the various stages of aircraft operation were addressed through comprehensive data analysis and interpretation. The measurement results were used to develop an inventory of aircraft emissions at BNE, including all modes of the aircraft LTO cycle and ground running procedures (GRP). Measurements of the actual duration of aircraft activity in each mode of operation (time-in-mode) and compiling a comprehensive matrix of gas and particle emission rates as a function of aircraft type and engine thrust level for real world situations was crucial for developing the inventory. The significance of the resulting matrix of emission rates in this study lies in the estimate it provides of the annual particle emissions due to aircraft operations, especially in terms of particle number. In summary, this PhD thesis presents for the first time a comprehensive study of the particle and NOx emission factors and rates along with the particle size distributions from aircraft operations and provides a basis for estimating such emissions at other airports. This is a significant addition to the scientific knowledge in terms of particle emissions from aircraft operations, since the standard particle number emissions rates are not currently available for aircraft activities.

Comparison of molecular markers to detect fresh sewage in environmental waters

Human-specific Bacteroides HF183 (HS-HF183), human-specific Enterococci faecium esp (HS-esp), human-specific adenoviruses (HS-AVs) and human-specific polyomaviruses (HS-PVs) assays were evaluated in freshwater, seawater and distilled water to detect fresh sewage. The sewage spiked water samples were also tested for the concentrations of traditional fecal indicators (i.e., Escherichia coli, enterococci and Clostridium perfringens) and enteric viruses such as enteroviruses (EVs), sapoviruses (SVs), and torquetenoviruses (TVs). The overall host-specificity of the HS-HF183 marker to differentiate between humans and other animals was 98%. However, the HS-esp, HS-AVs and HS-PVs showed 100% hostspecificity. All the human-specific markers showed >97% sensitivity to detect human fecal pollution. E. coli, enterococci and, C. perfringens were detected up to dilutions of sewage 10_5, 10_4 and 10_3 respectively.HS-esp, HS-AVs, HS-PVs, SVs and TVs were detected up to dilution of sewage 10_4 whilst EVs were detected up to dilution 10_5. The ability of the HS-HF183 marker to detect freshsewagewas3–4 orders ofmagnitude higher than that of the HS-esp and viral markers. The ability to detect fresh sewage in freshwater, seawater and distilled water matrices was similar for human-specific bacterial and viral marker. Based on our data, it appears that human-specific molecular markers are sensitive measures of fresh sewage pollution, and the HS-HF183 marker appears to be the most sensitive among these markers in terms of detecting fresh sewage. However, the presence of the HS-HF183 marker in environmental waters may not necessarily indicate the presence of enteric viruses due to their high abundance in sewage compared to enteric viruses. More research is required on the persistency of these markers in environmental water samples in relation to traditional fecal indicators and enteric pathogens.

Spatial Science News from QUT, Urban Development, November 2009.

Brief overview of topics/issues of interest end of 2009, including Spatial Science Students undertake Variety of Research Projects; labs and offices on the move again); Congratulations to Surveying Student Project- QSEA awards.

A pilot study utilising cross-age peer tutoring as a method of intervention for anxious adolescents

Anxiety disorders are the most common psychopathology experienced by young people, with up to 18% of adolescents developing an anxiety disorder. The consequences of these disorders, if left untreated, include impaired peer relationships, school absenteeism and self-concept problems. In addition, anxiety disorders may play a causal role in the development of depression in young people, precede eating disorders and predispose adolescents to substance abuse disorders. While the school is often chosen as a place to provide early intervention for this debilitating disorder, the fact that excessive anxiety is often not recognised in school and that young people are reluctant to seek help, makes identifying these adolescents difficult. Even when these young people are identified, there are problems in providing sensitive programs which are not stigmatising to them within a school setting. One method which may engage this adolescent population could be cross-age peer tutoring. This paper reports on a small pilot study using the “Worrybusters” program and a cross-age peer tutoring method to engage the anxious adolescents. These anxious secondary school students planned activities for teacher-referred anxious primary school students for a term in the high school setting and then delivered those activities to the younger students weekly in the next term in the primary school. Although the secondary school students decreased their scores on anxiety self-report measures there were no significant differences for primary school students’ self-reports. However, the primary school parent reports indicated a significant decrease in their child’s anxiety.

Can risk management boost the supply of affordable housing development and management?

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyse the risk management process conducted by some private and not-for-profit affordable housing providers in South East Queensland, and draw conclusions about the relationship between risk assessments/responses and past experiences.----- Design/methodology/approach: In-depth interviews of selected non-government housing providers have been conducted to facilitate an understanding of their approach to risk assessment in developing and in managing affordable housing projects. Qualitative data are analysed using thematic analysis to find emerging themes suggested by interview participants.----- Findings: The paper finds that informal risk management process is used as part of normal business process in accordance with industry standards. Many interviewees agree that the recognition of financial risk and the fear of community rejection of such housing projects have restrained them from committing to such investment projects. The levels of acceptance of risk are not always consistent across housing providers which create opportunities to conduct multi-stakeholder partnership to reduce overall risk.----- Research limitations/implications: The paper has implications for developers or investors who seek to include affordable housing as part of their portfolio. However, data collected in the study are a cross-section of interviews that will not include the impact on recent tax incentives offers by the Australian Commonwealth Government.----- Practical implications: The study suggests that implementing improvements to the risk mitigation and management framework may assist in promoting the supply of affordable housing by non-government providers.----- Originality/value: The focus of the study is the interaction between partnerships and risk management in development and management of affordable rental housing.

Moving towards a knowledge city : Brisbane's experience in knowledge-based urban development

In the global knowledge economy, knowledge-intensive industries and knowledge workers are extensively seen as the primary factors to improve the welfare and competitiveness of cities. To attract and retain such industries and workers, cities produce knowledge-based urban development strategies, where such strategising is also an important development mechanism for cities and their economies. This paper investigates Brisbane’s knowledge-based urban development strategies that support generation, attraction, and retention of investment and talent. The paper provides a clear understanding on the policy frameworks, and relevant applications of Brisbane’s knowledge-based urban development experience in becoming a prosperous knowledge city.

An indexing model for stormwater quality assessment : stormwater management in the Gold Coast

In the age of climate change and rapid urbanisation, stormwater management and water sensitive urban design have become important issues for urban policy makers. This paper reports the initial findings of a research study that develops an indexing model for assessing stormwater quality in the Gold Coast.

The role of intermediaries in the implementation and development of asynchronous rural access

In Orissa state, India, the DakNet system supports asynchronous Internet communication between an urban hub and rural nodes. DakNet is noteworthy in many respects, not least in how the system leverages existing transport infrastructure. Wi-Fi transceivers mounted on local buses send and receive user data from roadside kiosks, for later transfer to/from the Internet via wireless protocols. This store-and-forward system allows DakNet to offer asynchronous communication capacity to rural users at low cost. The original ambition of the DakNet system was to provide email and SMS facilities to rural communities. Our 2008 study of the communicative ecology surrounding the DakNet system revealed that this ambition has now evolved – in response to market demand – to the extent that e-shopping (rather than email) has become the primary driver behind the DakNet offer.

Sustainable urban futures : an ecological approach to sustainable urban development

In recent years, cities show increasing signs of environmental problems due to the negative impacts of urban activities. The degradation and depletion of natural resources, climate change and development pressure on green areas have become major concerns for cities. In response to these problems, urban planning policies have shifted to a sustainable focus and authorities have begun to develop new strategies for improving the quality of urban ecosystems. An extremely important function of an urban ecosystem is to provide healthy and sustainable environments for both natural systems and communities. Therefore, ecological planning is a functional requirement in the establishment of sustainable built environment. With ecological planning human needs are supplied while natural resources are used in the most effective and sustainable manner. And the maintenance of ecological balance is sustained. Protecting human and environmental health, having healthy ecosystems, reducing environmental pollution and providing green spaces are just a few of the many benefits of ecological planning. In this context, the paper briefly presents a short overview of the importance of the implementation of ecological planning into sustainable urban development. Furthermore, the paper defines the conceptual framework of a new method for developing sustainable urban ecosystems through ecological planning approach. In the future of the research, this model will be developed as a guideline for the assessment of the ecological sustainability in built environments.

A decision support system for sustainable urban development : the integrated land use and transportation indexing model

The broad definition of sustainable development at the early stage of its introduction has caused confusion and hesitation among local authorities and planning professionals. The main difficulties are experience in employing loosely-defined principles of sustainable development in setting policies and goals. The question of how this theory/rhetoric-practice gap could be filled will be the theme of this study. One of the widely employed sustainability accounting approaches by governmental organisations, triple bottom line, and applicability of this approach to sustainable urban development policies will be examined. When incorporating triple bottom line considerations with the environmental impact assessment techniques, the framework of GIS-based decision support system that helps decision-makers in selecting policy option according to the economic, environmental and social impacts will be introduced. In order to embrace sustainable urban development policy considerations, the relationship between urban form, travel pattern and socio-economic attributes should be clarified. This clarification associated with other input decision support systems will picture the holistic state of the urban settings in terms of sustainability. In this study, grid-based indexing methodology will be employed to visualise the degree of compatibility of selected scenarios with the designated sustainable urban future. In addition, this tool will provide valuable knowledge about the spatial dimension of the sustainable development. It will also give fine details about the possible impacts of urban development proposals by employing disaggregated spatial data analysis (e.g. land-use, transportation, urban services, population density, pollution, etc.). The visualisation capacity of this tool will help decision makers and other stakeholders compare and select alternative of future urban developments.

Sustainable urban development : a quadruple bottom line assessment framework

Sustainable development has long been promoted as the best answer to the world's environmental problems. This term has generated mass appeal as it implies that the development of the built environment and its associated resource consumption can both be achieved without jeopardising the natural environment. In the urban context, sustainability issues have been reflected in the pomotion of sustainable urbanisation in a manner that allows future generations to repeat this process. This paper attempts to highlight an increasing urgency in formulating a suitable model for assessing sustainability at urban level, because this is where the bulk of a nation's population reside, and where sustainability problems mostly occur. It will also point out to the increasing importance of governance in facilitating urban sustainability research. This assessment involves the use of physical, social, environmental and goverance aspects in assessing the extent to which development of an urban settlement is sustainable. Specifically, this assessment model is carried out to determine whether or not sustainable urban development pratice is implemented in the provision of residential development, and in particular whether the development of master-planned residential communities have more desireable outcomes compared to traditional residential subdivision.