A hypothesis test using bias-adjusted AR estimators for classifying time series in small samples

A new test of hypothesis for classifying stationary time series based on the bias-adjusted estimators of the fitted autoregressive model is proposed. It is shown theoretically that the proposed test has desirable properties. Simulation results show that when time series are short, the size and power estimates of the proposed test are reasonably good, and thus this test is reliable in discriminating between short-length time series. As the length of the time series increases, the performance of the proposed test improves, but the benefit of bias-adjustment reduces. The proposed hypothesis test is applied to two real data sets: the annual real GDP per capita of six European countries, and quarterly real GDP per capita of five European countries. The application results demonstrate that the proposed test displays reasonably good performance in classifying relatively short time series.

Modular green roof systems in mid-rise multifamily residential units

This paper presents the results of a full-scale research project undertaken to assess scour losses/gains for modular tray green roof specimens placed on a mock-up building, and identify important factors to consider for wind design criteria. Visual assessment of the experimental results showed that usage of vegetation, parapet height, wind direction, and test duration were the predominant factors affecting scour resistance of the growth media in tested specimens. Statistical analysis results indicated that the differences in soil losses measured among Phase 2’s test trials were more significant than those in Phase 1. This was attributed to the lack of parapet, cornering wind conditions, and longer test duration found in Phase 2. Findings presented in this paper constitute a benchmark for future research to improve the knowledge gap that exists in green roof wind design.

Part 2. MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 2.) Numerical aspects and implementation of model test cases

These lecture notes describe the use and implementation of a framework in which mathematical as well as engineering optimisation problems can be analysed. The foundations of the framework and algorithms described -Hierarchical Asynchronous Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms (HAPEAs) - lie upon traditional evolution strategies and incorporate the concepts of a multi-objective optimisation, hierarchical topology, asynchronous evaluation of candidate solutions , parallel computing and game strategies. In a step by step approach, the numerical implementation of EAs and HAPEAs for solving multi criteria optimisation problems is conducted providing the reader with the knowledge to reproduce these hand on training in his – her- academic or industrial environment.

Effect of soil properties on the response of pile to underground explosion

This paper develops and presents a fully coupled non-linear finite element procedure to treat the response of piles to ground shocks induced by underground explosions. The Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations are used in the study. Pile responses in four different soil types, viz, saturated soil, partially saturated soil and loose and dense dry soils are investigated and the results compared. Numerical results are validated by comparing with those from a standard design manual. Blast wave propagation in soils, horizontal pile deformations and damages in the pile are presented. The pile damage presented through plastic strain diagrams will enable the vulnerability assessment of the piles under the blast scenarios considered. The numerical results indicate that the blast performance of the piles embedded in saturated soil and loose dry soil are more severe than those in piles embedded in partially saturated soil and dense dry soil. Present findings should serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

Endurance test-rig for diagnostics and prognostics of rolling element bearings

Detection of faults in roller element bearing is a topic widely discussed in the scientific field. Bearings diagnostics is usually performed by analyzing experimental signals, almost always vibration signals, measured during operation. A number of signal processing techniques have been proposed and applied to measured vibrations. The diagnostic effectiveness of the techniques depends on their capacities and on the environmental conditions (i.e. environmental noise). The current trend, especially from an industrial point of view, is to couple the prognostics to the diagnostics. The realization of a prognostic procedure require the definition of parameters able to describe the bearing condition during its operation. Monitoring the values of these parameters during time allows to define their trends depending on the progress of the wear. In this way, a relation between the variation of the selected parameters and the wear progress, useful for diagnostics and prognostics of bearings in real industrial applications, can be established. In this paper, a laboratory test-rig designed to perform endurance tests on roller element bearing is presented. Since the test-rig has operated for a short time, only some preliminary available results are discussed.

A test rig for the condition-based maintenance application on the traction chain of very high speed trains

The preventive maintenance of traction equipment for Very High Speed Trains (VHST) nowadays is becoming very expensive owing to the high complexity and quality of these components that require high reliability. An efficient maintenance approach like the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) should be implemented to reduce the costs. For this purpose, an experimental full-scale test rig for the CBM of VHST traction equipment has been designed to investigate in detail failures in the main mechanical components of system, i.e. motor, bearings and gearbox. The paper describes the main characteristics of this unique test rig, able to reproduce accurately the train operating conditions, including the relative movements of the motor, the gearbox and the wheel axle. Gearbox, bearing seats and motor are equipped by accelerometers, thermocouples, torque meter and other sensors in different positions. The testing results give important information about the most suitable sensor position and type to be installed for each component and show the effectiveness of the techniques used for the signal analysis in order to identify faults of the gearbox and motor bearings.

Impact of nitrification inhibitor (DMPP) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from an intensive broccoli production system in sub-tropical Australia

Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser. Elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected as a consequence. In order to mitigate N2O emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, the use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted. However, no data is currently available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of the nitrification inhibitor 3,4-dimethylpyrazole phosphate (DMPP) on N2O emissions and yield from broccoli production in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously (3 h sampling frequency) with fully automated, pneumatically operated measuring chambers linked to a sampling control system and a gas chromatograph. Cumulative N2O emissions over the 5 month observation period amounted to 298 g-N/ha, 324 g-N/ha, 411 g-N/ha and 463 g-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment (DMPP), the DMMP treatment with a 10% reduced fertiliser rate (DMPP-red) and the zero fertiliser (0N), respectively. The temporal variation of N2O fluxes showed only low emissions over the broccoli cropping phase, but significantly elevated emissions were observed in all treatments following broccoli residues being incorporated into the soil. Overall 70–90% of the total emissions occurred in this 5 weeks fallow phase. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content over the broccoli cropping phase where the application of DMPP reduced N2O emissions by 75% compared to the standard practice. However, there was no statistical difference between the treatments during the fallow phase or when the whole season was considered. This study shows that DMPP has the potential to reduce N2O emissions from intensive vegetable systems, but also highlights the importance of post-harvest emissions from incorporated vegetable residues. N2O mitigation strategies in vegetable systems need to target these post-harvest emissions and a better evaluation of the effect of nitrification inhibitors over the fallow phase is needed.

Measuring, modelling and understanding the mechanical behavior of bagasse

In the Australian sugar industry, sugar cane is smashed into a straw like material by hammers before being squeezed between large rollers to extract the sugar juice. The straw like material is initially called prepared cane and then bagasse as it passes through successive roller milling units. The sugar cane materials are highly compressible, have high moisture content, are fibrous, and they resemble some peat soils in both appearance and mechanical behaviour. A promising avenue to improve the performance of milling units for increased throughput and juice extraction, and to reduce costs is by modelling of the crushing process. To achieve this, it is believed necessary that milling models should be able to reproduce measured bagasse behaviour. This investigation sought to measure the mechanical (compression, shear, and volume) behaviour of prepared cane and bagasse, to identify limitations in currently used material models, and to progress towards a material model that can predict bagasse behaviour adequately. Tests were carried out using a modified direct shear test equipment and procedure at most of the large range of pressures occurring in the crushing process. The investigation included an assessment of the performance of the direct shear test for measuring bagasse behaviour. The assessment was carried out using finite element modelling. It was shown that prepared cane and bagasse exhibited critical state behavior similar to that of soils and the magnitudes of material parameters were determined. The measurements were used to identify desirable features for a bagasse material model. It was shown that currently used material models had major limitations for reproducing bagasse behaviour. A model from the soil mechanics literature was modified and shown to achieve improved reproduction while using magnitudes of material parameters that better reflected the measured values. Finally, a typical three roller mill pressure feeder configuration was modelled. The predictions and limitations were assessed by comparison to measured data from a sugar factory.

An investigation approach to test protection intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) in IEC 61850 based substation automation systems (SAS) at station level

This thesis has developed a new approach to trace virtual protection signals in Electrical substation networks. The main goal of the research was to analyse the contents of the virtual signals transferred, using third party software. In doing so, a comprehensive test was done on a distance protection relay, using non-conventional test equipment.

Modelling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 in human malaria to better understand malaria rapid diagnostic test performance

BACKGROUND: Effective diagnosis of malaria is a major component of case management. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on Plasmodium falciparumhistidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are popular for diagnosis of this most virulent malaria infection. However, concerns have been raised about the longevity of the PfHRP2 antigenaemia following curative treatment in endemic regions. METHODS: A model of PfHRP2 production and decay was developed to mimic the kinetics of PfHRP2 antigenaemia during infections. Data from two human infection studies was used to fit the model, and to investigate PfHRP2 kinetics. Four malaria RDTs were assessed in the laboratory to determine the minimum detectable concentration of PfHRP2. RESULTS: Fitting of the PfHRP2 dynamics model indicated that in malaria naive hosts, P. falciparum parasites of the 3D7 strain produce 1.4 x 10(-)(1)(3) g of PfHRP2 per parasite per replication cycle. The four RDTs had minimum detection thresholds between 6.9 and 27.8 ng/mL. Combining these detection thresholds with the kinetics of PfHRP2, it is predicted that as few as 8 parasites/muL may be required to maintain a positive RDT in a chronic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the model indicate that good quality PfHRP2-based RDTs should be able to detect parasites on the first day of symptoms, and that the persistence of the antigen will cause the tests to remain positive for at least seven days after treatment. The duration of a positive test result following curative treatment is dependent on the duration and density of parasitaemia prior to treatment and the presence and affinity of anti-PfHRP2 antibodies.

Soil-pile interaction of pile embedded in deep layered marine sediment under seismic excitation

This research provides validated Finite Element techniques to analyse pile foundations under seismic loads. The results show that the capability of the technique to capture the important pile response which includes kinematic and inertial interaction effects, effects of soil stiffness and depth on pile deflection patterns and permanent deformations.

Malaria rapid diagnostic test performance : results of WHO product testing of malaria RDTs : round 5 (2013)

WHO estimates that half the world’s population is at risk of malaria. In 2012, there were an estimated 207 million cases (with an uncertainty range of 135 million to 287 million) and an estimated 627 000 deaths (with an uncertainty range of 473 000 to 789 000). Approximately 90% of all malaria deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 77% occur in children under 5 years. Malaria remains endemic in 104 countries, and, while parasite-based diagnosis is increasing, most suspected cases of malaria are still not properly confirmed, resulting in over-use of antimalarial drugs and poor disease monitoring (1)...

Modelling attitudes to climate change : an order effect and a test between alternatives

Quantum-like models can be fruitfully used to model attitude change in a social context. Next steps require data, and higher dimensional models. Here, we discuss an exploratory study that demonstrates an order effect when three question sets about Climate Beliefs, Political Affiliation and Attitudes Towards Science are presented in different orders within a larger study of n=533 subjects. A quantum-like model seems possible, and we propose a new experiment which could be used to test between three possible models for this scenario.