Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Foucault, Weber, neoliberalism and the politics of governmentality

This paper argues that Michel Foucault’s lectures that form The Birth of Biopolitics owe a considerable debt to the thought of Max Weber, particularly in their analysis of how different socio-legal regimes shape distinctive national forms of capitalist economies, and the role that is played by social and economic institutions in the shaping of individual identities. This is in contrast to a common interpretation of Foucault’s account of neoliberalism, which synthesizes his work into neo-Marxist notions of hegemony and capitalist domination. It also identifies Foucault’s approach to neoliberalism as an exploratory one, which considers insights into how a particular relationship between ideas and institutional practices may help in imagining socialist forms of government practice.

Using global formulary apportionment for international profit allocation: The case of Indonesia's mining industry

My thesis examined an alternative approach, referred to as the unitary taxation approach to the allocation of profit, which arises from the notion that as a multinational group exists as a single economic entity, it should be taxed as one taxable unit. The plausibility of a unitary taxation regime achieving international acceptance and agreement is highly contestable due to its implementation issues, and economic and political feasibility. Using a case-study approach focusing on Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto's mining operations in Indonesia, this thesis compares both tax regimes against the criteria for a good tax system - equity, efficiency, neutrality and simplicity. This thesis evaluates key issues that arise when implementing a unitary taxation approach with formulary apportionment based on the context of mining multinational firms in Indonesia.

Electricity pricing in New Zealand and the Australian State of Queensland: Accounting for the impact of sector restructuring

The electricity industries of New Zealand (NZ) and the Australian state of Queensland have undergone substantial structural and regulatory reform with the common intent to improve economic efficiency. Deregulation and privatisation have been key elements of the reform but have been approached differently by each jurisdiction. This study traces the link between structural and regulatory regimes and asset valuation, profits and, ultimately, pricing. The study finds that key drivers in recent price increases are the government-owned generation and retail sector in NZ and the government-owned distribution sector in Queensland. It is concluded that, contrary to the rationale for the imposition of regulatory controls in a nonmarket environment, the regulatory regimes appear to have contributed to higher rather than lower pricing structures.

Climate change and human rights: Intellectual property challenges and opportunities

Mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change will require innovation and the development of new technologies. Intellectual property laws have a key part to play in the global transfer of climate technologies. However, failures to properly utilize flexibilities in intellectual property regimes or comply with technology transfer obligations under international climate change agreements calls for a human rights based analysis of climate technology transfer. Climate change is an unprecedented challenge and requires unprecedented strategies. Given the substantial impact of climate change on all of humanity and the ethical imperative to act, a complete rethink of traditional intellectual property approaches is warranted. This report proposes a series of intellectual property law policy options, through a human rights framework, aimed at promoting access to technologies to reduce the human suffering caused by climate change.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Magnetic resonance microimaging of cancer cell spheroid constructs

BACKGROUND Hydrogel-based cell cultures are excellent tools for studying physiological events occurring in the growth and proliferation of cells, including cancer cells. Diffusion magnetic resonance is a physical technique that has been widely used for the characterisation of biological systems as well as hydrogels. In this work, we applied diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to hydrogel-based cultures of human ovarian cancer cells. METHODS Diffusion-weighted spin-echo MRI measurements were used to obtain spatially-resolved maps of apparent diffusivities for hydrogel samples with different compositions, cell loads and drug (Taxol) treatment regimes. The samples were then characterised using their diffusivity histograms, mean diffusivities and the respective standard deviations, and pairwise Mann-Whitney tests. The elastic moduli of the samples were determined using mechanical compression testing. RESULTS The mean apparent diffusivity of the hydrogels was sensitive to the polymer content, cell load and Taxol treatment. For a given sample composition, the mean apparent diffusivity and the elastic modulus of the hydrogels exhibited a negative correlation. CONCLUSIONS Diffusivity of hydrogel-based cancer cell culture constructs is sensitive to both cell proliferation and Taxol treatment. This suggests that diffusion-weighted imaging is a promising technique for non-invasive monitoring of cancer cell proliferation in hydrogel-based, cellularly-sparse 3D cell cultures. The negative correlation between mean apparent diffusivity and elastic modulus suggests that the diffusion coefficient is indicative of the average density of the physical microenvironment within the hydrogel construct.

Early Childhood teachers’ work in a time of change

This article investigates teacher decision-making in a time of rapid educational reforms. Institutional ethnography is used to discover how teachers’ work is co-ordinated by the texts of a new national curriculum, and a system for the assessment and ratings of kindergarten, preschool and long day-care services in individual settings and across sites. The research draws on video recorded interview data gathered from five teachers working with three to five year old children in kindergarten classrooms throughout South East Queensland. Analysis shows the reported effects of policy regimes designed to improve the quality of learning young children experience, on classroom teachers’ work. Findings suggest that increasing levels of governance enacted through policy texts are creating an audit culture where teachers’ educational work with children is changing. The article argues that the reported workload associated with the production of evidence, and the focus on providing ‘proof’ of quality, is taking teachers away from time spent building educative relationships with children. Note: In Queensland, kindergarten caters for children aged three and a half to five years. This year is known as Preschool in some Australian states.

Natural convection in rectangular cavities at high Rayleigh number

Natural convection in rectangular two-dimensional cavities with differentially heated side walls is a standard problem in numerical heat transfer. Most of the existing studies has considered the low Ra laminar regime. The general thrust of the present research is to investigate higher Ra flows extending into the unsteady and turbulent regimes where the physics is not fully understood and appropriate models for turbulence are not yet established. In the present study the Boussinesq approximation is being used, but the theoretical background and some preliminary results have been obtained[1] for flows with variable properties.

Should tax incentives for charitable giving stop at Australia's borders?

Around the world, philanthropic gifts are increasingly crossing borders, driven by globalisation and facilitated by liberalised cross-border tax incentives. Australia is considered to have one of the strictest regimes for the tax treatment of cross-border donations. With bipartisan political support for a significant reduction in the amount and scope of Australian foreign aid, the nation’s international presence through the ‘soft power’ of aid will fall increasingly upon private philanthropy. Are the current tax incentives for Australian cross-border philanthropy and the supervision of those incentives appropriate to both facilitate and regulate international giving? To address this question, this article analyses the amount of Australian cross-border philanthropy and explains the current legislative architecture affecting the tax deductibility of cross-border gifts. It then examines the Australian Government’s proposed ‘in Australia’ reform agenda against the underlying fiscal and regulatory policy imperatives, and makes recommendations for the future tax treatment of Australian cross-border philanthropy.

Human trafficking heroes and villains: Representing the problem in anti-trafficking awareness campaigns

Since the declaration by the United Nations that awareness raising should be a key part of efforts to combat human trafficking, government and non-government organisations have produced numerous public awareness campaigns designed to capture the public’s attention and sympathy. These campaigns represent the ‘problem’ of trafficking in specific ways, creating heroes and villains by placing the blame for trafficking on some, while obscuring the responsibility of others. This paper adopts Carol Bacchi’s ‘What is the problem represented to be?’ framework for examining the politicisation of problem representation in 18 anti-trafficking awareness campaigns. It is argued that these campaigns construct a narrow understanding of the problem through the depiction of ‘ideal offenders’. In particular, a strong focus on the demand for commercial sex as causative of human trafficking serves to obscure the problematic role of consumerism in a wide range of industries, and perpetuates an understanding of trafficking that fails to draw a necessary distinction between the demand for labour, and the demand for ‘exploitable’ labour. This problem representation also obscures the role governments in destination countries may play in causing trafficking through imposing restrictive migration regimes that render migrants vulnerable to traffickers.

Is corporate rescue a realistic ideal? Business as usual in Australia and the United Kingdom

This paper seeks to review the operation of Australian corporate law rescue regimes in the context of those originally contemplated by Sir Kenneth Cork and more latterly in Australia, primarily in the hands of Ron Harmer. In doing so, it draws upon some of the observations made by Professor Fletcher in the second wave of 20th century corporate rescue reform in the United Kingdom.

Socio-Legal Aspects of the 3D Printing Revolution

Additive manufacturing or ‘3D printing’ has emerged into the mainstream in the last few years, with much hype about its revolutionary potential as the latest ‘disruptive technology’ to destroy existing business models, empower individuals and evade any kind of government control. This book examines the trajectory of 3D printing in practice and how it interacts with various areas of law, including intellectual property, product liability, gun laws, data privacy and fundamental/constitutional rights. A particular comparison is made between 3D printing and the Internet as this has been, legally-speaking, another ‘disruptive technology’ and also one on which 3D printing is partially dependent. This book is the first expert analysis of 3D printing from a legal perspective and provides a critical assessment of the extent to which existing legal regimes can be successfully applied to, and enforced vis-à-vis, 3D printing.

A relational approach to direct mail consumption

- Purpose This paper aims to investigate how direct mail consumption contributes to brand relationship quality. Store flyers and other direct mailings continue to play a significant role in many companies’ communication strategies. Research on this topic predominantly investigates driving store traffic and sales. Less is known regarding the consumer side, such as the value that consumers may derive from the consumption of direct mailings and the effects of such a value on brand relationship quality. To address this limitation, this paper tests a causal model of the contribution of direct mail value to brand commitment, drawing on a value framework that integrates social theory of engagement regimes and literature on experiential customer value. - Design/methodology/approach The empirical work of this paper is based on a rigorous four-study mixed methods design, involving qualitative study, confirmatory factor analysis and partial least squares structural modeling. - Findings The authors develop two second-order formatively designed scales – familiar value and planned value scales – that illustrate the role of engagement regimes in consumer behavior. Although both types of value contribute equally to direct mail attachment, they exert contrasting effects on other mediational consumer responses, such as reading and gratitude. Finally, the proposed theoretical model appears to be robust in predicting customers’ brand commitment. - Research limitations/implications This study provides new insights into the research on consumer value and brand relational communication. - Originality/value This study is the first to consider consumer benefits from the social perspective of engagement regimes.