Load estimation with uncertainties from opportunistic sampling data: A semiparametric approach

We consider estimating the total load from frequent flow data but less frequent concentration data. There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates that minimizes the biases and makes use of informative predictive variables. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized rating-curve approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, such as the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and the discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. Forming this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach for two rivers delivering to the Great Barrier Reef, Queensland, Australia. One is a data set from the Burdekin River, and consists of the total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) and gauged flow for 1997. The other dataset is from the Tully River, for the period of July 2000 to June 2008. For NO(x) Burdekin, the new estimates are very similar to the ratio estimates even when there is no relationship between the concentration and the flow. However, for the Tully dataset, by incorporating the additional predictive variables namely the discounted flow and flow phases (rising or recessing), we substantially improved the model fit, and thus the certainty with which the load is estimated.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

The effect of an in–shoe orthotic heel lift on loading of the Achilles tendon during shod walking

- Study Design Controlled laboratory study - Objective To investigate the effect of a 12–mm in–shoe orthotic heel lift on Achilles tendon loading during shod walking using transmission–mode ultrasonography. - Background Orthotic heel lifts are thought to lower tension in the Achilles tendon but evidence for this effect is equivocal. - Methods The propagation speed of ultrasound, which is governed by the elastic modulus and density of tendon and is proportional to the tensile load to which it is exposed, was measured in the right Achilles tendon of twelve recreationally–active males during shod treadmill walking at matched speeds (3.4±0.7 km/h), with and without addition of a heel lift. Vertical ground reaction force and spatiotemporal gait parameters were simultaneously recorded. Data were acquired at 100Hz during 10s of steady–state walking. Statistical comparisons were made using paired t–tests (α=.05). - Results Ultrasound transmission speed in the Achilles tendon was characterized by two maxima (P1, P2) and minima (M1, M2) during walking. Addition of a heel lift to footwear resulted in a 2% increase and 2% decrease in the first vertical ground reaction force peak and the local minimum, respectively (P<.05). Peak ultrasonic velocity in the Achilles tendon (P1, P2, M2) was significantly lower with addition of an orthotic heel lift (P<.05). - Conclusions Peak ultrasound transmission speed in the Achilles tendon was lower with the addition of a 12–mm orthotic heel lift, indicating the heel lift reduced tensile load in the Achilles tendon, thereby counteracting the effect of footwear. These findings support the addition of orthotic heel lifts to footwear in the rehabilitation of Achilles tendon disorders where management aims to lower tension within the tendon. - Level of Evidence Therapy, level 2a

Cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load

Cyclic plastic deformation of subgrade and other engineered layers is generally not taken into account in the design of railway bridge transition zones, although the plastic deformation is the governing factor of frequent track deterioration. Actual stress behavior of fine grained subgrade/embankment layers under train traffic is, however, difficult to replicate using the conventional laboratory test apparatus and techniques. A new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, known as multi-ring shear apparatus, was therefore developed to evaluate the actual stress state and the corresponding cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade materials under moving wheel load conditions. Multi-ring shear test results has been validated using a theoretical model test results; the capability of the multi-ring shear apparatus for replicating the cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load conditions is thus established. This paper describes the effects of principal stress rotation (PSR) of the subgrade materials to the cyclic plastic deformation in a railroad and impacts of testing methods in evaluating the influence of principal stress rotation to the track deterioration of rail track.

Can the direct measurement of the load applied on the residuum of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis help to improve the rehabilitation program?

To strive to improve the rehabilitation program of individuals with transfemoral amputation fitted with bone-anchored prosthesis based on data from direct measurements of the load applied on the residuum we first of all need to understand the load applied on the fixation. Therefore the load applied on the residuum was first directly measured during standardized activities of daily living such as straight line level walking, ascending and descending stairs and a ramp and walking around a circle. From measuring the load in standardized activities of daily living the load was also measured during different phases of the rehabilitation program such as during walking with walking aids and during load bearing exercises.[1-15] The rehabilitation program for individuals with a transfemoral amputation fitted with an OPRA implant relies on a combination of dynamic and static load bearing exercises.[16-20] This presentation will focus on the study of a set of experimental static load bearing exercises. [1] A group of eleven individuals with unilateral transfemoral amputation fitted with an OPRA implant participated in this study. The load on the implant during the static load bearing exercises was measured using a portable system including a commercial transducer embedded in a short pylon, a laptop and a customized software package. This apparatus was previously shown effective in a proof-of-concept study published by Prof. Frossard. [1-9] The analysis of the static load bearing exercises included an analysis of the reliability as well as the loading compliance. The analysis of the loading reliability showed a high reliability between the loading sessions indicating a correct repetition of the LBE by the participants. [1, 5] The analysis of the loading compliance showed a significant lack of axial compliance leading to a systematic underloading of the long axis of the implant during the proposed experimental static LBE.

Probabilistic load flow for distribution systems with uncertain PV generation

Large integration of solar Photo Voltaic (PV) in distribution network has resulted in over-voltage problems. Several control techniques are developed to address over-voltage problem using Deterministic Load Flow (DLF). However, intermittent characteristics of PV generation require Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) to introduce variability in analysis that is ignored in DLF. The traditional PLF techniques are not suitable for distribution systems and suffer from several drawbacks such as computational burden (Monte Carlo, Conventional convolution), sensitive accuracy with the complexity of system (point estimation method), requirement of necessary linearization (multi-linear simulation) and convergence problem (Gram–Charlier expansion, Cornish Fisher expansion). In this research, Latin Hypercube Sampling with Cholesky Decomposition (LHS-CD) is used to quantify the over-voltage issues with and without the voltage control algorithm in the distribution network with active generation. LHS technique is verified with a test network and real system from an Australian distribution network service provider. Accuracy and computational burden of simulated results are also compared with Monte Carlo simulations.

PMU measurement based dynamic load modeling using SVC devices in online environment

Online dynamic load modeling has become possible with the availability of Static Voltage Compensator (SVC) and Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) devices. The power of the load response to the small random bounded voltage fluctuations caused from SVC can be measured by PMU for modelling purposes. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the capability of identifying an aggregated load model from high voltage substation level in the online environment. The induction motor is used as the main test subject since it contributes the majority of the dynamic loads. A test system representing simple electromechanical generator model serving dynamic loads through the transmission network is used to verify the proposed method. Also, dynamic load with multiple induction motors are modeled to achieve a better realistic load representation.

High-density fine-mapping of a chromosome 10q26 linkage peak suggests association between endometriosis and variants close to CYP2C19

OBJECTIVE To refine a previously reported linkage peak for endometriosis on chromosome 10q26, and conduct follow-up analyses and a fine-mapping association study across the region to identify new candidate genes for endometriosis. DESIGN Case-control study. SETTING Academic research. PATIENT(S) Cases=3,223 women with surgically confirmed endometriosis; controls=1,190 women without endometriosis and 7,060 population samples. INTERVENTION(S) Analysis of 11,984 single nucleotide polymorphisms on chromosome 10. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Allele frequency differences between cases and controls. RESULT(S) Linkage analyses on families grouped by endometriosis symptoms (primarily subfertility) provided increased evidence for linkage (logarithm of odds score=3.62) near a previously reported linkage peak. Three independent association signals were found at 96.59 Mb (rs11592737), 105.63 Mb (rs1253130), and 124.25 Mb (rs2250804). Analyses including only samples from linkage families supported the association at all three regions. However, only rs11592737 in the cytochrome P450 subfamily C (CYP2C19) gene was replicated in an independent sample of 2,079 cases and 7,060 population controls. CONCLUSION(S) The role of the CYP2C19 gene in conferring risk for endometriosis warrants further investigation.

Measuring route passenger load diversity for capacity and quality of service assessment

This paper develops theory that quantifies transit route passenger-relative load factor and distinguishes it from occupancy load factor. The ratio between these measures is defined as the load diversity coefficient, which as a single measure characterizes the diversity of passenger load factor between route segments according to the origin-destination profile. The relationship between load diversity coefficient and route coefficient of variation in occupancy load factor is quantified. Two tables are provided that enhance passenger capacity and quality of service (QoS) assessment regarding onboard passenger load. The first expresses the transit operator’s perspective of load diversity and the passengers’ perspective of load factor relative to the operator’s, across six service levels corresponding to ranges of coefficient of variation in occupancy load factor. The second interprets the relationships between passenger average travel time and each of passenger-relative load factor and occupancy load factor. The application of this methodology is illustrated using a case study of a premium radial bus route in Brisbane, Australia. The methodology can assist in benchmarking and decision making regarding route and schedule design. Future research will apply value of time to QoS measurement, reflecting perceived passenger comfort through crowding and average time spent aboard. This would also assist in transit service quality econometric modeling.

Measuring route passenger load diversity for capacity and quality of service assessment

This poster introduces Passenger Relative Load Factor for a route or individual bus service as a capacity and quality of service measure, distinguishing it from Occupancy Load Factor. It introduces Load Diversity Coefficient as the ratio of Passenger Relative Load Factor to Occupancy Load Factor, and relates Load Diversity Coefficient to Coefficient of Variation in Occupancy Load Factor. It qualifies the operator’s and passengers’ perspectives of load factor based on Coefficient of Variation in Occupancy Load Factor along a route. A case study using weekday Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data on a premium bus line in Brisbane, Australia illustrates the methodology. The compendium paper also qualifies the operator’s and passengers’ perspectives of these load factors along with Passengers’ Average Travel Time for capacity and quality of service assessment.

MPC controlled multirotor with suspended slung load: System architecture and visual load detection

There is an increased interest in the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for load transportation from environmental remote sensing to construction and parcel delivery. One of the main challenges is accurate control of the load position and trajectory. This paper presents an assessment of real flight trials for the control of an autonomous multi-rotor with a suspended slung load using only visual feedback to determine the load position. This method uses an onboard camera to take advantage of a common visual marker detection algorithm to robustly detect the load location. The load position is calculated using an onboard processor, and transmitted over a wireless network to a ground station integrating MATLAB/SIMULINK and Robotic Operating System (ROS) and a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) to control both the load and the UAV. To evaluate the system performance, the position of the load determined by the visual detection system in real flight is compared with data received by a motion tracking system. The multi-rotor position tracking performance is also analyzed by conducting flight trials using perfect load position data and data obtained only from the visual system. Results show very accurate estimation of the load position (~5% Offset) using only the visual system and demonstrate that the need for an external motion tracking system is not needed for this task.

Insights into PBDE uptake, body burden, and elimination gained from Australian age–Concentration trends observed shortly after peak exposure

Background Population pharmacokinetic models combined with multiple sets of age– concentration biomonitoring data facilitate back-calculation of chemical uptake rates from biomonitoring data. Objectives We back-calculated uptake rates of PBDEs for the Australian population from multiple biomonitoring surveys (top-down) and compared them with uptake rates calculated from dietary intake estimates of PBDEs and PBDE concentrations in dust (bottom-up). Methods Using three sets of PBDE elimination half-lives, we applied a population pharmacokinetic model to the PBDE biomonitoring data measured between 2002–2003 and 2010–2011 to derive the top-down uptake rates of four key PBDE congeners and six age groups. For the bottom-up approach, we used PBDE concentrations measured around 2005. Results Top-down uptake rates of Σ4BDE (the sum of BDEs 47, 99, 100, and 153) varied from 7.9 to 19 ng/kg/day for toddlers and from 1.2 to 3.0 ng/kg/day for adults; in most cases, they were—for all age groups—higher than the bottom-up uptake rates. The discrepancy was largest for toddlers with factors up to 7–15 depending on the congener. Despite different elimination half-lives of the four congeners, the age–concentration trends showed no increase in concentration with age and were similar for all congeners. Conclusions In the bottom-up approach, PBDE uptake is underestimated; currently known pathways are not sufficient to explain measured PBDE concentrations, especially in young children. Although PBDE exposure of toddlers has declined in the past years, pre- and postnatal exposure to PBDEs has remained almost constant because the mothers’ PBDE body burden has not yet decreased substantially.

Numerical study on the surface depression of the concrete runway pavement under impact load

Airport runway pavement always subjected to huge impact loading due to the hard landing of aircraft on the pavement surface. Therefore runway pavements should have sufficient impact resistance capability to avoid damage causing by hard impact like surface deflection in downward or penetration since the repair works is cumbersome within the operating condition of airport and also increases the service life cost of the pavement structure. Several research works have been carried out on airport runway pavement to measure the present condition of pavement and also to predict future performance of it. However, most of the works are confined by pavement response under moving aircraft loading. Nevertheless, no comprehensive research work is yet conducted to identify the controlling factors which might have significant effect in changing the common pavements damage like surface penetration depth under impact of aircraft. Therefore, a 3D FE study is conducted to determine some effective factors in controlling the top surface penetration depth of runway pavement. Among the exterior factors, mass of the impactor, velocity of the impactor, impact angle and boundary conditions are selected and as interior factors, thickness of the runway pavement, compressive strength and density of materials used in the runway pavement are selected.

Experimental studies of lipped channel beams subject to web crippling under two-flange load cases

Lipped channel beams (LCBs) are commonly used as flexural members such as floor joists and bearers in the construction 6 industry. These thin-walled LCBs are subjected to specific buckling and failure modes, one of them being web crippling. Despite considerable 7 research in this area, some recent studies have shown that the current web crippling design rules are unable to predict the test capacities under 8 end-two-flange (ETF) and interior-two-flange (ITF) load conditions. In many instances, web crippling predictions by the available design 9 standards such as AISI S100, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1-3 are inconsistent, i.e., unconservative in some cases, although they 10 are conservative in other cases. Hence, experimental studies consisting of 36 tests were conducted in this research to assess the web crippling 11 behavior and capacities of high-strength LCBs under two-flange load cases (ETF and ITF). Experimental results were then compared with the 12 predictions from current design rules. Comparison of the ultimate web crippling capacities from tests showed that the design equations are 13 very unconservative for LCB sections under the ETF load case and are conservative for the ITF load case. Hence, improved equations were 14 proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LCBs based on the experimental results from this study. Current design equations do 15 not provide the direct strength method (DSM) provisions for web crippling. Hence, suitable design rules were also developed under the DSM 16 format using the test results and buckling analyses using finite-element analyses.

Experimental studies on web crippling strength of hollow flange channels under EOF and IOF load cases

LiteSteel beam (LSB) is a hollow flange channel made from cold-formed steel using a patented manufacturing process involving simultaneous cold-forming and dual electric resistance welding. LSBs are currently used as floor joists and bearers in buildings. However, there are no appropriate design standards available due to its unique hollow flange geometry, residual stress characteristics and initial geometric imperfections arising from manufacturing processes. Recent research studies have focused on investigating the structural behaviour of LSBs under pure bending, predominant shear and combined actions. However, web crippling behaviour and strengths of LSBs still need to be examined. Therefore, an experimental study was undertaken to investigate the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LSBs under EOF (End One Flange) and IOF (Interior One Flange) load cases. A total of 23 web crippling tests were performed and the results were compared with the current AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design standards, which showed that the cold-formed steel design rules predicted the web crippling capacity of LSB sections very conservatively under EOF and IOF load cases. Therefore, suitably improved design equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacity of LSBs based on experimental results. In addition, new design equations were also developed under the Direct Strength Method format. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LiteSteel beams under EOF and IOF load cases and the results.