Degradation modeling and monitoring of machines using operation-specific hidden Markov models

In this paper, a novel data-driven approach to monitoring of systems operating under variable operating conditions is described. The method is based on characterizing the degradation process via a set of operation-specific hidden Markov models (HMMs), whose hidden states represent the unobservable degradation states of the monitored system while its observable symbols represent the sensor readings. Using the HMM framework, modeling, identification and monitoring methods are detailed that allow one to identify a HMM of degradation for each operation from mixed-operation data and perform operation-specific monitoring of the system. Using a large data set provided by a major manufacturer, the new methods are applied to a semiconductor manufacturing process running multiple operations in a production environment.

Effect of broadcast baiting on abundance patterns of red imported fire ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and key local ant genera at long-term monitoring sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

A runtime integrity monitoring framework for real-time relative positioning systems based on GPS and DSRC

This paper provides a three-layered framework to monitor the positioning performance requirements of Real-time Relative Positioning (RRP) systems of the Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) that support Cooperative Collision Warning (CCW) applications. These applications exploit state data of surrounding vehicles obtained solely from the Global Positioning System (GPS) and Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) units without using other sensors. To this end, the paper argues the need for the GPS/DSRC-based RRP systems to have an autonomous monitoring mechanism, since the operation of CCW applications is meant to augment safety on roads. The advantages of autonomous integrity monitoring are essential and integral to any safety-of-life system. The autonomous integrity monitoring framework proposed necessitates the RRP systems to detect/predict the unavailability of their sub-systems and of the integrity monitoring module itself, and, if available, to account for effects of data link delays and breakages of DSRC links, as well as of faulty measurement sources of GPS and/or integrated augmentation positioning systems, before the information used for safety warnings/alarms becomes unavailable, unreliable, inaccurate or misleading. Hence, a monitoring framework using a tight integration and correlation approach is proposed for instantaneous reliability assessment of the RRP systems. Ultimately, using the proposed framework, the RRP systems will provide timely alerts to users when the RRP solutions cannot be trusted or used for the intended operation.

Quality assurance of aerial applications of larvicides for mosquito control : effects of granule and catch tray size on field monitoring programs

Aerial applications of granular insecticides are preferable because they can effectively penetrate vegetation, there is less drift, and no loss of product due to evaporation. We aimed to 1) assess the field efficacy ofVectoBac G to control Aedes vigilax (Skuse) in saltmarsh pools, 2) develop a stochastic-modeling procedure to monitor application quality, and 3) assess the distribution of VectoBac G after an aerial application. Because ground-based studies with Ae. vigilax immatures found that VectoBac G provided effective control below the recommended label rate of 7 kg/ha, we trialed a nominated aerial rate of 5 kg/ha as a case study. Our distribution pattern modeling method indicated that the variability in the number of VectoBac G particles captured in catch-trays was greater than expected for 5 kg/ha and that the widely accepted contour mapping approach to visualize the deposition pattern provided spurious results and therefore was not statistically appropriate. Based on the results of distribution pattern modeling, we calculated the catch tray size required to analyze the distribution of aerially applied granular formulations. The minimum catch tray size for products with large granules was 4 m2 for Altosid pellets and 2 m2 for VectoBac G. In contrast, the minimum catch-tray size for Altosid XRG, Aquabac G, and Altosand, with smaller granule sizes, was 1 m2. Little gain in precision would be made by increasing the catch-tray size further, when the increased workload and infrastructure is considered. Our improved methods for monitoring the distribution pattern of aerially applied granular insecticides can be adapted for use by both public health and agricultural contractors.

Collaborative extension of biodiversity monitoring protocols in the bird watching community

Citizen science projects have demonstrated the advantages of people with limited relevant prior knowledge participating in research. However, there is a difference between engaging the general public in a scientific project and entering an established expert community to conduct research. This paper describes our ongoing acoustic biodiversity monitoring collaborations with the bird watching community. We report on findings gathered over six years from participation in bird walks, observing conservation efforts, and records of personal activities of experienced birders. We offer an empirical study into extending existing protocols through in-context collaborative design involving scientists and domain experts.

Investigations of dielectric monitoring on an energised transformer oil–paper insulation system

Frequency domain spectroscopy (FDS) is being used to assess the insulation condition of oil–paper power transformers. However, it has to date only been implemented on de-energised transformers, which requires the transformers to be shut down for an extended period and may cause significant costs. To solve this issue, a newly improved monitoring method based on the FDS principle is proposed to implement the dielectric measurement on energised transformers. Moreover, a chirp waveform excitation and its novel processing method are introduced. Compared with the conventional FDS results, dielectric results from the energised insulation system have higher tanδ values because of the increased losses. To further understand the insulation ageing process, the effects of the geometric capacitance are removed from the measured imaginary admittance of the insulation system to enhance the ageing signature. The resulting imaginary admittance is then shown to correlate well with the central time constant in return voltage measurements results. The proposed methods address the issues on techniques used on energised transformers and provide a clue for on-line FDS diagnostic application.

Biological monitoring and Biological Limit Values (BLV): the strategy of the European Union

Occupational standards concerning allowable concentrations of chemical compounds in the ambient air of workplaces have been established in several countries worldwide. With the integration of the European Union (EU), there has been a need of establishing harmonised Occupational Exposure Limits (OEL). The European Commission Directive 95/320/EC of 12 July 1995 has given the tasks to a Scientific Committee for Occupational Exposure Limits (SCOEL) to propose, based on scientific data and where appropriate, occupational limit values which may include the 8-h time-weighted average (TWA), short-term limits/excursion limits (STEL) and Biological Limit Values (BLVs). In 2000, the European Union issued a list of 62 chemical substances with Occupational Exposure Limits. Of these, 25 substances received a "skin" notation, indicating that toxicologically significant amounts may be taken up via the skin. For such substances, monitoring of concentrations in ambient air may not be sufficient, and biological monitoring strategies appear of potential importance in the medical surveillance of exposed workers. Recent progress has been made with respect to formulation of a strategy related to health-based BLVs.

Biological monitoring in workers in a nitrobenzene reduction plant : Haemoglobin versus serum albumin adducts

The high priority of monitoring workers exposed to nitrobenzene is a consequence of clear findings of experimental carcinogenicity of nitrobenzene and the associated evaluations by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Eighty male employees of a nitrobenzene reduction plant, with potential skin contact with nitrobenzene and aniline, participated in a current medical surveillance programme. Blood samples were routinely taken and analysed for aniline, 4-aminodiphenyl (4-ADP) and benzidine adducts of haemoglobin (Hb) and human serum albumin (HSA). Also, levels of methaemoglobin (Met-Hb) and of carbon monoxide haemoglobin (CO-Hb) were monitored. Effects of smoking were straightforward. Using the rank sum test of Wilcoxon, we found that very clear-cut and statistically significant smoking effects (about 3-fold increases) were apparent on CO-Hb (P = 0.00085) and on the Hb adduct of 4-ADP (P = 0.0006). The mean aniline-Hb adduct level in smokers was 1.5 times higher than in non-smokers; the significance (P = 0.05375) was close to the 5% level. The strongest correlation was evident between the Hb and HSA adducts of aniline (rs = 0.846). Less pronounced correlations (but with P values < 0.02) appeared between aniline-Hb and 4-ADP-Hb adducts (rs = 0.388), between 4-ADP and 4-ADP-HSA adducts (rs = 0.373), and between 4-ADP-Hb and aniline-HSA adducts (rs = 0.275). In view of the proposal for additional use of the aniline-HSA adduct for biological monitoring, particularly in cases of acute overexposures or poisonings, the strong correlation of the Hb and HSA conjugates is noteworthy; the ratio aniline-HSA:aniline-Hb was 1:42 for the entire cohort.

Douglas Shire Water Quality Monitoring Strategy: Final Report: a Report to Douglas Shire Council and the Department of the Environment and Heritage

This report describes results and conclusions from the monitoring component of the Douglas Shire Council (DSC) water quality project. The components of this project that this report addresses are: • Site selection and installation of in-stream and off-paddock automatic water quality monitoring equipment in the Douglas Shire. • Design of appropriate sampling strategies for automatic stations. • Estimation of loads of suspended sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus in rivers and also estimation of the changes in nutrient loads from sugar cane under different fertilizer application rates. • Development of a community-based water quality sampling program to complement the automatic sampling efforts. • Design of an optimised, long-term water quality monitoring strategy.