Discovering future disaster management capability needs using scenario planning

In recent years disaster risk reduction efforts have focused on disturbances ranging from climate variability, seismic hazards, geo-political instability and public and animal health crises. These factors combined with uncertainty derived from inter-dependencies within and across systems of critical infrastructure create significant problems of governance for the private and public sector alike. The potential for rapid spread of impacts, geographically and virtually, can render a comprehensive understanding of disaster response and recovery needs and risk mitigation issues beyond the grasp of competent authority. Because of such cascading effects communities and governments at local and state-levels are unlikely to face single incidents but rather series of systemic impacts: often appearing concurrently. A further point to note is that both natural and technological hazards can act directly on socio-technical systems as well as being propagated by them: as network events. Such events have been categorised as ‘outside of the box,’ ‘too fast,’ and ‘too strange’ (Lagadec, 2004). Emergent complexities in linked systems can make disaster effects difficult to anticipate and recovery efforts difficult to plan for. Beyond the uncertainties of real world disasters, that might be called familiar or even regular, can we safely assume that the generic capability we use now will suit future disaster contexts? This paper presents initial scoping of research funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre seeking to define future capability needs of disaster management organisations. It explores challenges to anticipating the needs of representative agencies and groups active in before, during and after phases of emergency and disaster situations using capability deficit assessments and scenario assessment.

Response of segmented bored transit tunnels to surface blast

Increasing threat of terrorism highlights the importance of enhancing the resilience of underground tunnels to all hazards. This paper develops, applies and compares the Arbitrary Lagrangian Eulerian (ALE) and Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) techniques to treat the response of buried tunnels to surface explosions. The results and outcomes of the two techniques were compared, along with results from existing test data. The comparison shows that the ALE technique is a better method for describing the tunnel response for above ground explosion with regards to modeling accuracy and computational efficiency. The ALE technique was then applied to treat the blast response of different types of segmented bored tunnels buried in dry sand. Results indicate that the most used modern ring type segmented tunnels were more flexible for in-plane response, however, they suffered permanent drifts between the rings. Hexagonal segmented tunnels responded with negligible drifts in the longitudinal direction, but the magnitudes of in-plane drifts were large and hence hazardous for the tunnel. Interlocking segmented tunnels suffered from permanent drifts in both the longitudinal and transverse directions. Multi-surface radial joints in both the hexagonal and interlocking segments affected the flexibility of the tunnel in the transverse direction. The findings offer significant new information in the behavior of segmented bored tunnels to guide their future implementation in civil engineering applications.

A nationwide web-based automated system for early outbreak detection and rapid response in China

Timely reporting, effective analyses and rapid distribution of surveillance data can assist in detecting the aberration of disease occurrence and further facilitate a timely response. In China, a new nationwide web-based automated system for outbreak detection and rapid response was developed in 2008. The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) was developed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention based on the surveillance data from the existing electronic National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System (NIDRIS) started in 2004. NIDRIS greatly improved the timeliness and completeness of data reporting with real time reporting information via the Internet. CIDARS further facilitates the data analysis, aberration detection, signal dissemination, signal response and information communication needed by public health departments across the country. In CIDARS, three aberration detection methods are used to detect the unusual occurrence of 28 notifiable infectious diseases at the county level and to transmit that information either in real-time or on a daily basis. The Internet, computers and mobile phones are used to accomplish rapid signal generation and dissemination, timely reporting and reviewing of the signal response results. CIDARS has been used nationwide since 2008; all Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China at the county, prefecture, provincial and national levels are involved in the system. It assists with early outbreak detection at the local level and prompts reporting of unusual disease occurrences or potential outbreaks to CDCs throughout the country.

Four years on: Are the gazelles still running? A longitudinal study of firm performance after a period of rapid growth

This article examines variations in performance between fast-growth – the so-called gazelle – firms. Specifically, we investigate how the level of growth affects future profitability and how this relationship is moderated by firm strategy. Hypotheses are developed regarding the moderated growth–profitability relationship and are tested using longitudinal data from a sample of 964 Danish gazelle firms. We find a positive relationship between growth and profitability among gazelle firms. This relationship is moderated, however, by market strategy; it is stronger for firms pursuing a broad market strategy rather than a niche strategy. This study contributes to the current literature by providing a more nuanced view of the growth–profitability relationship and investigating the potential for the future performance of gazelle firms.

Proceedings of the 3rd International Subtropical Cities Conference 2011 Subtropical Cities: Subtropical Urbanism -Beyond Climate Change

Climate has been, throughout modern history, a primary attribute for attracting residents to the “Sunshine States” of Florida (USA) and Queensland (Australia). The first major group of settlers capitalized on the winter growing season to support a year-­‐round agricultural economy. As these economies developed, the climate attracted tourism and retirement industries. Yet as Florida and Queensland have blossomed under beneficial climates, the stresses acting on the natural environment are exacting a toll. Southeast Florida and eastern Queensland are among the most vulnerable coastal metropolitan areas in the world. In these places the certainty of sea level rise is measurable with impacts, empirically observable, that will continue to increase regardless of any climate change mitigation.1 The cities of the subtropics share a series of paradoxes relating to climate, resources, environment, and culture. As the subtropical climate entices new residents and visitors there are increasing costs associated with urban infrastructure and the ravages of violent weather. The carefree lifestyle of subtropical cities is increasingly dependent on scarce water and energy resources and the flow of tangible goods that support a trade economy. The natural environment is no longer exploitable as the survival of the human environment is contingent upon the ability of natural ecosystems to absorb the impact of human actions. The quality of subtropical living is challenged by the mounting pressures of population growth and rapid urbanization yet urban form and contemporary building design fail to take advantage of the subtropical zone’s natural attributes of abundant sunshine, cooling breezes and warm temperatures. Yet, by building a global network of local knowledge, subtropical cities like Brisbane, the City of Gold Coast and Fort Lauderdale, are confidently leading the way with innovative and inventive solutions for building resiliency and adaptation to climate change. The Centre for Subtropical Design at Queensland University of Technology organized the first international Subtropical Cities conference in Brisbane, Australia, where the “fault-­‐lines” of subtropical cities at breaking points were revealed. The second conference, held in 2008, shed a more optimistic light with the theme "From fault-­‐lines to sight-­‐lines -­‐ subtropical urbanism in 20-­‐20" highlighting the leadership exemplified in the vitality of small and large works from around the subtropical world. Yet beyond these isolated local actions the need for more cooperation and collaboration was identified as the key to moving beyond the problems of the present and foreseeable future. The spirit of leadership and collaboration has taken on new force, as two institutions from opposite sides of the globe joined together to host the 3rd international conference Subtropical Cities 2011 -­‐ Subtropical Urbanism: Beyond Climate Change. The collaboration between Florida Atlantic University and the Queensland University of Technology to host this conference, for the first time in the United States, forges a new direction in international cooperative research to address urban design solutions that support sustainable behaviours, resiliency and adaptation to sea level rise, green house gas (GHG) reduction, and climate change research in the areas of architecture and urban design, planning, and public policy. With southeast Queensland and southern Florida as contributors to this global effort among subtropical urban regions that share similar challenges, opportunities, and vulnerabilities our mutual aim is to advance the development and application of local knowledge to the global problems we share. The conference attracted over 150 participants from four continents. Presentations by authors were organized into three sub-­‐themes: Cultural/Place Identity, Environment and Ecology, and Social Economics. Each of the 22 papers presented underwent a double-­‐blind peer review by a panel of international experts among the disciplines and research areas represented. The Centre for Subtropical Design at the Queensland University of Technology is leading Australia in innovative environmental design with a multi-­‐disciplinary focus on creating places that are ‘at home’ in the warm humid subtropics. The Broward Community Design Collaborative at Florida Atlantic University's College for Design and Social Inquiry has built an interdisciplinary collaboration that is unique in the United States among the units of Architecture, Urban and Regional Planning, Social Work, Public Administration, together with the College of Engineering and Computer Science, the College of Science, and the Center for Environmental Studies, to engage in funded action research through design inquiry to solve the problems of development for urban resiliency and environmental sustainment. As we move beyond debates about climate change -­‐ now acting upon us -­‐ the subtropical urban regions of the world will continue to convene to demonstrate the power of local knowledge against global forces, thereby inspiring us as we work toward everyday engagement and action that can make our cities more livable, equitable, and green.

Nursing and medical perceptions of a hospital rapid response system: New process but same old game?

Perhaps no other patient safety intervention depends so acutely on effective interprofessional teamwork for patient survival than the hospital rapid response system (RRS). Yet little is known about nurse-physician relationships when rescuing at-risk patients. This study compared nursing and medical staff perceptions of a mature RRS at a large tertiary hospital. Findings indicate the RRS may be failing to address a hierarchical culture and systems-level barriers to early recognition and response to patient deterioration.

Rapid detection of TNT in aqueous media by selective label free surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy

We report rapid and ultra-sensitive detection system for 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) using unmodified gold nanoparticles and surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS). First, Meisenheimer complex has been formed in aqueous solution between TNT and cysteamine in less than 15 min of mixing. The complex formation is confirmed by the development of a pink colour and a new UV–vis absorption band around 520 nm. Second, the developed Meisenheimer complex is spontaneously self-assembled onto unmodified gold nanoparticles through a stable Au–S bond between the cysteamine moiety and the gold surface. The developed mono layer of cysteamine-TNT is then screened by SERS to detect and quantify TNT. Our experimental results demonstrate that the SERS-based assay provide an ultra-sensitive approach for the detection of TNT down to 22.7 ng/L. The unambiguous fingerprint identification of TNT by SERS represents a key advantage for our proposed method. The new method provides high selectivity towards TNT over 2,4 DNT and picric acid. Therefore it satisfies the practical requirements for the rapid screening of TNT in real life samples where the interim 24-h average allowable concentration of TNT in waste water is 0.04 mg/L.

Frequency independence of ultrasound transit time spectroscopy

Recent studies have shown that ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (UTTS) is an alternative method to describe ultrasound wave propagation through complex samples as an array of parallel sonic rays. This technique has the potential to characterize bone properties including volume fraction and may be implemented in clinical systems to predict osteoporotic fracture risk. In contrast to broadband ultrasound attenuation, which is highly frequency dependent, we hypothesise that UTTS is frequency independent. This study measured 1 MHz and 5 MHz broadband ultrasound signals through a set of acrylic step-wedge samples. Digital deconvolution of the signals through water and each sample was applied to derive a transit time spectrum. The resulting spectra at both 1 MHz and 5 MHz were compared to the predicted transit time values. Linear regression analysis yields agreement (R2) of 99.23% and 99.74% at 1 MHz and 5 MHz respectively indicating frequency independence of transit time spectra.

Understanding the effects of complex seasonality on suburban daily transit ridership

Fluctuations in transit ridership pattern over the year have always concerned transport planners, operators and researchers. Predominantly, metrological elements have been specified to explain variability in ridership volume. However, the outcome of this research points to new direction to explain ridership fluctuation in Brisbane. It explored the relationship between daily bus ridership, seasonality and weather variables for a one-year period, 2012. Rather than segregating the entire year’s ridership into the four calendar seasons (summer, autumn, spring, and winter), this analysis distributed the yearly ridership into nine complex seasonality blocks. These represent calendar season, school/university (academic) period and their corresponding holidays, as well as other observant holidays such as Christmas. The dominance of complex seasonality over typical calendar season was established through analysis and using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). This research identified a very strong association between complex seasonality and bus ridership. Furthermore, an expectation that Brisbane’s subtropical summer is unfavourable to transit usage was not supported by the findings of this study. A nil association of precipitation and temperature was observed in this region. Finally, this research developed a ridership estimation model, capable of predicting daily ridership within very limited error range. Following the application of this developed model, the estimated annual time series data of each suburb was analysed using Fourier Transformation to appreciate whether any cyclical effects remained, compared with the original data.

Reproducible and label-free biosensor for the selective extraction and rapid detection of proteins in biological fluids

Erythropoietin (EPO), a glycoprotein hormone of ∼34 kDa, is an important hematopoietic growth factor, mainly produced in the kidney and controls the number of red blood cells circulating in the blood stream. Sensitive and rapid recombinant human EPO (rHuEPO) detection tools that improve on the current laborious EPO detection techniques are in high demand for both clinical and sports industry. A sensitive aptamer-functionalized biosensor (aptasensor) has been developed by controlled growth of gold nanostructures (AuNS) over a gold substrate (pAu/AuNS). The aptasensor selectively binds to rHuEPO and, therefore, was used to extract and detect the drug from horse plasma by surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS). Due to the nanogap separation between the nanostructures, the high population and distribution of hot spots on the pAu/AuNS substrate surface, strong signal enhancement was acquired. By using wide area illumination (WAI) setting for the Raman detection, a low RSD of 4.92% over 150 SERS measurements was achieved. The significant reproducibility of the new biosensor addresses the serious problem of SERS signal inconsistency that hampers the use of the technique in the field. The WAI setting is compatible with handheld Raman devices. Therefore, the new aptasensor can be used for the selective extraction of rHuEPO from biological fluids and subsequently screened with handheld Raman spectrometer for SERS based in-field protein detection.

Commuting mode choice in transit oriented development: Disentangling the effects of competitive neighbourhoods, travel attitudes, and self-selection

This research identifies the commuting mode choice behaviour of 3537 adults living in different types of transit oriented development (TOD) in Brisbane by disentangling the effects of their “evil twin” transit adjacent developments (TADs), and by also controlling for residential self-selection, travel attitudes and preferences, and socio-demographic effects. A TwoStep cluster analysis was conducted to identify the natural groupings of respondents’ living environment based on six built environment indicators. The analysis resulted in five types of neighbourhoods: urban TODs, activity centre TODs, potential TODs, TADs, and traditional suburbs. HABITAT survey data were used to derive the commute mode choice behaviour of people living in these neighbourhoods. In addition, statements reflecting both respondents’ travel attitudes and living preferences were also collected as part of the survey. Factor analyses were conducted based on these statements and these derived factors were then used to control for residential self-selection. Four binary logistic regression models were estimated, one for each of the travel modes used (e.g. public transport, active transport, less sustainable transport such as the car/taxi, and other), to differentiate between the commuting behaviour of people living in the five types of neighbourhoods. The findings verify that urban TODs enhance the use of public transport and reduce car usage. No significant difference was found in the commuting behaviour between respondents living in traditional suburbs and TADs. The results confirm the hypothesis that TADs are the “evil twin” of TODs. The data indicates that TADs and the mode choices of residents in these neighbourhoods is a missed transport policy opportunity. Further policy efforts are required for a successive transition of TADs into TODs in order to realise the full benefits of these. TOD policy should also be integrated with context specific TOD design principles.

Engaging a multiple-track approach to building capacity for 21st Century engineering, opportunities and challenges for rapid curriculum renewal

‘Complexity’ is a term that is increasingly prevalent in conversations about building capacity for 21st Century professional engineers. Society is grappling with the urgent and challenging reality of accommodating seven billion people, meeting needs and innovating lifestyle improvements in ways that do not destroy atmospheric, biological and oceanic systems critical to life. Over the last two decades in particular, engineering educators have been active in attempting to build capacity amongst professionals to deliver ‘sustainable development’ in this rapidly changing global context. However curriculum literature clearly points to a lack of significant progress, with efforts best described as ad hoc and highly varied. Given the limited timeframes for action to curb environmental degradation proposed by scientists and intergovernmental agencies, the authors of this paper propose it is imperative that curriculum renewal towards education for sustainable development proceeds rapidly, systemically, and in a transformational manner. Within this context, the paper discusses the need to consider a multiple track approach to building capacity for 21st Century engineering, including priorities and timeframes for undergraduate and postgraduate curriculum renewal. The paper begins with a contextual discussion of the term complexity and how it relates to life in the 21st Century. The authors then present a whole of system approach for planning and implementing rapid curriculum renewal that addresses the critical roles of several generations of engineering professionals over the next three decades. The paper concludes with observations regarding engaging with this approach in the context of emerging accreditation requirements and existing curriculum renewal frameworks.

Mainstreaming EESD: Elements of rapid curriculum renewal

This keynote paper provides an overview of opportunities to rapidly renew curriculum to EESD, to meet the scale and pace of change required, in order to address the issues of our time – in time. The authors outline the key arguments of the six papers that will comprise the March 2009 special issue of the International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, on a proposed preliminary framework for rapid curriculum renewal to EESD. The authors invite conference delegates to provide feedback on these papers, and to consider how other concepts and methodologies presented at EESD08 might also be rapidly mainstreamed, to contribute to systemic integration of sustainability content throughout engineering education, in every engineering department.

The rapid manufacture of uniform composite multicellular-biomaterial micropellets, their assembly into macroscopic organized tissues, and potential applications in cartilage tissue engineering

We and others have published on the rapid manufacture of micropellet tissues, typically formed from 100-500 cells each. The micropellet geometry enhances cellular biological properties, and in many cases the micropellets can subsequently be utilized as building blocks to assemble complex macrotissues. Generally, micropellets are formed from cells alone, however when replicating matrix-rich tissues such as cartilage it would be ideal if matrix or biomaterials supplements could be incorporated directly into the micropellet during the manufacturing process. Herein we describe a method to efficiently incorporate donor cartilage matrix into tissue engineered cartilage micropellets. We lyophilized bovine cartilage matrix, and then shattered it into microscopic pieces having average dimensions < 10 μm diameter; we termed this microscopic donor matrix "cartilage dust (CD)". Using a microwell platform, we show that ~0.83 μg CD can be rapidly and efficiently incorporated into single multicellular aggregates formed from 180 bone marrow mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSC) each. The microwell platform enabled the rapid manufacture of thousands of replica composite micropellets, with each micropellet having a material/CD core and a cellular surface. This micropellet organization enabled the rapid bulking up of the micropellet core matrix content, and left an adhesive cellular outer surface. This morphological organization enabled the ready assembly of the composite micropellets into macroscopic tissues. Generically, this is a versatile method that enables the rapid and uniform integration of biomaterials into multicellular micropellets that can then be used as tissue building blocks. In this study, the addition of CD resulted in an approximate 8-fold volume increase in the micropellets, with the donor matrix functioning to contribute to an increase in total cartilage matrix content. Composite micropellets were readily assembled into macroscopic cartilage tissues; the incorporation of CD enhanced tissue size and matrix content, but did not enhance chondrogenic gene expression.