648 resultados para Logistic growth equation


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It is to estimate the trend of suicide rate changes during the past three decades in China and try to identify its social and economic correlates. Official data of suicide rates and economic indexes during 1982–2005 from Shandong Province of China were analyzed. The suicide data were categorized for the rural / urban location and gender, and the economic indexes include GDP, GDP per capita, rural income, and urban income, all adjusted for inflation. We found a significant increase of economic development and decrease of suicide rates over the past decades under study. The suicide rate decrease is correlated with the tremendous growth of economy. The unusual decrease of Chinese suicide rates in the past decades is accounted for within the Chinese cultural contexts and maybe by the Strain Theory of Suicide.

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It is generally accepted that there is a close relationship between property investment and construction activity. The construction sector plays a crucial role in economic development, especially for a developing nation such as Malaysia. However, the volume of new properties added to the property market is only a fraction of the total volume of the property market. Is the conventional assumption of the relationship between property investment and construction supported by empirical data? This paper revisits the tripartite relationships between economic growths, property investment and construction activities with official Malaysian 2000Q1-2010Q4 quarterly time series data. The Granger causality tests are used to establish the causality runs from the GDP to the value of property transactions, and the growth of construction activities to GDP growth. The result is expected to be useful for policymakers and industrial practitioners in formulating industrial policies and corporate strategies.

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Transport and logistics are essential to effective business. Very little is currently known about the impact of improved transport on micro-enterprises in developing economies and whether improvements in this area would assist the very poor. This paper looks at the obstacles of an inefficient transport facilitation system and the high costs incurred by 22 survival micro-entrepreneurs funded by the same local NGO and operating in diverse industry sectors in a peri-urban context in Mozambique. Six case studies are selected to illustrate the most common constraints they face. The perspectives of the micro-business owners are confronted with those of government officials and community leaders for two reasons: to identify any mismatch and to discuss possible solutions. Significant discrepancies are detected between government agenda and needs of the population, while community-based entrepreneurship (CBE) is discussed as a possible collective strategy in dealing with the problem.

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This thesis is about the Australian domain name system and, in particular, the principles governing the registration of domain names in the '.au' country code domain space. It examines the different types of registration systems adopted in country code domain spaces and categorises them according to the extent to which they impose restrictions on registration, ranging from restrictive to unrestrictive. A comparative analysis is made of the restrictive registration system in Australia and the United Kingdom‘s unrestrictive system.

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Transcending traditional national borders, the Internet is an evolving technology that has opened up many new international market opportunities. However, ambiguity remains, with limited research and understanding of how the Internet influences the firm’s internationalisation process components. As a consequence, there has been a call for further investigation of the phenomenon. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate the Internet’s impact on the internationalisation process components, specifically, information availability, information usage, interactive communication and international market growth. Analysis was undertaken using structural equation modelling. Findings highlight the mediating impact of the Internet on information and knowledge transference in the internationalisation process. Contributions of the study test conceptualisations and give statistical validation of interrelationships, while illuminating the Internet’s impact on firm internationalisation.

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Immigrant entrepreneurship, or, self-employment by immigrants (Light & Bonacich, 1988), has been of growing interest to researchers (Hosler, 1996). This is due in part to major immigrant receiving countries, such as Australia, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Western Europe, experiencing a high growth rate in their immigrant populations, leading to a more visible presence of immigrant business in major cities (Woon, 2008). By starting their own businesses, immigrant entrepreneurs may circumvent some of the barriers and disadvantages encountered in looking for a job (Sequeira & Rasheed, 2006). Successful immigrant entrepreneurs will integrate into the economy by creating jobs, providing products and services for members of their own ethnic community and society, as well as introducing new products and services that expand consumers’ choices (Rath & Kloosterman, 2000). Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start business within their ethnic enclave, as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan et al., 2002). An ethnic enclave is an interdependent network of social and business relationships that are geographically concentrated with its co-ethnic people (Portes & Bach, 1985).

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Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

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The Western Downs region, located in Southern Queensland, about 200 kilometres west of Brisbane, has been experiencing rapid and significant changes over the past years, due to a massive boom in the energy sector. The rapid growth triggered by the development of mining and energy sectors has generated environmental, socio-economic and land use issues, and has revealed strong weaknesses within the region’s current governance arrangements. The present paper develops a four-stage approach to managing current and expected changes in a resource-based region under tremendous stress and uncertainty.

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Carbon nanotubes (CNTs), experimentally observed for the first time twenty years ago, have triggered an unprecedented research effort, on the account of their astonishing structural, mechanical and electronic properties. Unfortunately, the current inability in predicting the CNTs’ properties and the difficulty in controlling their position on a substrate are often limiting factors for the application of this material in actual devices. This research aims at the creation of specific methodologies for controlled synthesis of CNTs, leading to effectively employ them in various fields of electronics, e.g. photovoltaics. Focused Ion Beam (FIB) patterning of Si surfaces is here proposed as a means for ordering the assembly of vertical-aligned CNTs. With this technique, substrates with specific nano-structured morphologies have been prepared, enabling a high degree of control over CNTs’ position and size. On these nano-structured substrates, the growth of CNTs has been realized by chemical vapor deposition (CVD), i.e. thermal decomposition of hydrocarbon gases over a heated catalyst. The most common materials used as catalysts in CVD are transition metals like Fe and Ni; however, their presence in the CNT products often results in shortcomings for electronic applications, especially for those based on silicon, being the metallic impurities incompatible with very-large-scale integration (VLSI) technology. In the present work the role of Ge dots as an alternative catalysts for CNTs synthesis on Si substrates has been thoroughly assessed, finding a close connection between the catalytic activity of such material and the CVD conditions, which can affect both size and morphology of the dots. Successful CNT growths from Ge dots have been obtained by CVD at temperatures ranging from 750 to 1000°C, with mixtures of acetylene and hydrogen in an argon carrier gas. The morphology of the Si surface is observed to play a crucial role for the outcome of the CNT synthesis: natural (i.e. chemical etching) and artificial (i.e. FIB patterning, nanoindentation) means of altering this morphology in a controlled way have been then explored to optimize the CNTs yield. All the knowledge acquired in this study has been finally applied to synthesize CNTs on transparent conductive electrodes (indium-tin oxide, ITO, coated glasses), for the creation of a new class of anodes for organic photovoltaics. An accurate procedure has been established which guarantees a controlled inclusion of CNTs on ITO films, preserving their optical and electrical properties. By using this set of conditions, a CNTenhanced electrode has been built, contributing to improve the power conversion efficiency of polymeric solar cells.

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We present a porous medium model of the growth and deterioration of the viable sublayers of an epidermal skin substitute. It consists of five species: cells, intracellular and extracellular calcium, tight junctions, and a hypothesised signal chemical emanating from the stratum corneum. The model is solved numerically in Matlab using a finite difference scheme. Steady state calcium distributions are predicted that agree well with the experimental data. Our model also demonstrates epidermal skin substitute deterioration if the calcium diffusion coefficient is reduced compared to reported values in the literature.

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The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the main drivers that enhance and inhibit the export performance of Chilean wineries. Based on survey data collected from Chilean wineries, the findings of this study suggest that the main constraints within the Chilean wineries in developing exports is the lack of financial resources, limited quantities of stocks for market expansion, management’s lack of knowledge and experience, and the high cost of travelling and participating in trade shows. The main drivers of wine export performance according to the respondents are high quality of the wines, well established network of international distributors, and marketing skills. The major inhibitors of developing wine exports are exchange rate variability, problems in selecting a reliable international distributor, and limited government support to promote wine exports. This study also shows that export managers of Chilean wineries have high educational levels and have international experience. The findings have important implications for export development efforts of both governments and managers.

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This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team and other international Entrepreneurship researchers. In this vignette, Professor Per Davidsson considers some of the dynamics associated with firm growth.

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Initial crack widely exists in the welded members of steel bridge induced by the welding procedure or by the fatigue damage crack initiation. The behavior of crack growth with a view to fatigue damage accumulation on the tip of cracks is discussed. Fatigue life of welded components with initial crack in bridges under traffic loading is investigated. Based on existing fatigue experiment results of welded members with initial crack and the fatigue experiment results of welded bridge members under constant stress cycles, the crack would keep semi-elliptical shape with variable ratio of a/c during the crack propagation. Based on the concept of continuum damage accumulated on the tip of fatigue cracks,the fatigue damage law suitable for steel bridge members under traffic loading is modified to consider the crack growth.The virtual crack growth method and the semi-elliptical crack shape assumption are proposed in this paper to deduce a new model of fatigue crack growth rate for welded bridge members under traffic loading. And the calculated method of the stress intensity factor necessary for evaluation of the fatigue life of welded bridge members with cracks is discussed.The proposed fatigue crack growth model is then applied to calculate the crack growth and the fatigue life of existing welded members with fatigue experimental results. The fatigue crack propagation computation results show that the ratio of crack depth to the half crack surface length a/c is variable during crack propagation process and the stress cycle increases with the increase of a0/c0 with certain a0/t0 .The calculated and measured fatigue lives are generally in good agreement,at some initial conditions of cracking, for welded members widely used in steel bridges.

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Fractional differential equations are becoming more widely accepted as a powerful tool in modelling anomalous diffusion, which is exhibited by various materials and processes. Recently, researchers have suggested that rather than using constant order fractional operators, some processes are more accurately modelled using fractional orders that vary with time and/or space. In this paper we develop computationally efficient techniques for solving time-variable-order time-space fractional reaction-diffusion equations (tsfrde) using the finite difference scheme. We adopt the Coimbra variable order time fractional operator and variable order fractional Laplacian operator in space where both orders are functions of time. Because the fractional operator is nonlocal, it is challenging to efficiently deal with its long range dependence when using classical numerical techniques to solve such equations. The novelty of our method is that the numerical solution of the time-variable-order tsfrde is written in terms of a matrix function vector product at each time step. This product is approximated efficiently by the Lanczos method, which is a powerful iterative technique for approximating the action of a matrix function by projecting onto a Krylov subspace. Furthermore an adaptive preconditioner is constructed that dramatically reduces the size of the required Krylov subspaces and hence the overall computational cost. Numerical examples, including the variable-order fractional Fisher equation, are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the approach.

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Young novice drivers constitute a major public health concern due to the number of crashes in which they are involved, and the resultant injuries and fatalities. Previous research suggests psychological traits (reward sensitivity, sensation seeking propensity), and psychological states (anxiety, depression) influence their risky behaviour. The relationships between gender, anxiety, depression, reward sensitivity, sensation seeking propensity and risky driving are explored. Participants (390 intermediate drivers, 17-25 years) completed two online surveys at a six month interval. Surveys comprised sociodemographics, Brief Sensation Seeking Scale, Kessler’s Psychological Distress Scale, an abridged Sensitivity to Reward Questionnaire, and risky driving behaviour was measured by the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale. Structural equation modelling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted risky driving. Gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. Future interventions which consider the role of rewards, sensation seeking, and mental health may contribute to improved road safety for younger and older road users alike.