Travel time prediction on signalised urban arterials by applying SARIMA modelling on Bluetooth data

Travel time prediction has long been the topic of transportation research. But most relevant prediction models in the literature are limited to motorways. Travel time prediction on arterial networks is challenging due to involving traffic signals and significant variability of individual vehicle travel time. The limited availability of traffic data from arterial networks makes travel time prediction even more challenging. Recently, there has been significant interest of exploiting Bluetooth data for travel time estimation. This research analysed the real travel time data collected by the Brisbane City Council using the Bluetooth technology on arterials. Databases, including experienced average daily travel time are created and classified for approximately 8 months. Thereafter, based on data characteristics, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling is applied on the database for short-term travel time prediction. The SARMIA model not only takes the previous continuous lags into account, but also uses the values from the same time of previous days for travel time prediction. This is carried out by defining a seasonality coefficient which improves the accuracy of travel time prediction in linear models. The accuracy, robustness and transferability of the model are evaluated through comparing the real and predicted values on three sites within Brisbane network. The results contain the detailed validation for different prediction horizons (5 min to 90 minutes). The model performance is evaluated mainly on congested periods and compared to the naive technique of considering the historical average.

The effects of risk factors and protective factors on influencing engagement in risky behaviours and injury experiences for high-risk adolescents

High-risk adolescents are most vulnerable to the negative outcomes of risk taking behaviour, such as injury. It has been theorised by Jessor (1987) that adolescent risk behaviours (e.g. violence, alcohol use) can be predicted by assessing the risk factors (e.g. peer models for violence) and protective factors (e.g. school connectedness) in a young person’s life. The aim of this research is to examine the influence of risk factors and protective factors on the proneness of high-risk adolescents to engage in risky behaviour. 2,521 Grade 9 students (13-14 years of age) from 35 schools in Queensland, Australia participated in this study. The findings examine the influence of risk factors and protective factors on self-reported risky behaviour and injury experiences for adolescents who have been categorized as high-risk. Thereby, providing insight that may be used to target preventive interventions aimed at high-risk adolescents.

Development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program for early adolescents

The current program of research addresses the need for multi-level programs to target the major increase in injury rates that occurs throughout adolescence. Specifically, it involves the investigation of school connectedness as a protective factor for adolescent injury, and the development of school connectedness as a component of an injury prevention program. To date, school-based risk taking and injury prevention has frequently been limited to addressing adolescents' knowledge and attitudes to risk behaviours, and has largely overlooked the importance of the wider school social context as a protective factor in adolescent development. Additionally, school connectedness has been primarily studied in terms of its impact on student achievement, wellbeing and risk taking behaviour, and research has not yet addressed possible links with injury. Further, school connectedness intervention programs have targeted risk taking behaviours without evaluating their potential impact on injury outcomes. This is the first reported research to develop strategies to increase school connectedness as part of a school-based injury prevention program. The research program was conceptualised as three distinct stages. The development of these research stages was informed by a comprehensive review of the literature on adolescent risk taking, injury and school-based prevention, as well as on school connectedness and its importance in adolescence. A review of the school connectedness literature indicated that students' connectedness is largely influenced by relationships within the school context including with teachers and other school staff, and is therefore a potentially modifiable factor that may be targeted in school-based programs. Overall, the literature shows school connectedness to be a key protective factor in adolescent development. This review established a foundation from which the current program of research was designed. The first stage of the research involved an empirical investigation of the relationship between adolescent risk taking-related injuries and school connectedness. Stage one incorporated two studies. The first involved the development of a measure of adolescent injury, the Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC), for use in the current research as well as in future school-based studies and program evaluation. The results of this study also highlighted the extent of the problem of risk-related injury in adolescence. The second study in Stage one examined the relationship between students' reports of school connectedness, risk taking behaviour and risk taking-related injuries on the E-AIC. The results of this study showed significant relationships between increased school connectedness and reduced reported engagement in transport and violence risk taking, and fewer associated injuries. This study therefore suggested the potential for school-based injury prevention programs to incorporate strategies targeting increased adolescent connectedness to school. The second stage of this research involved the compilation of an evidence base to inform the design of a school connectedness intervention. Stage two also incorporated two studies. The first study in Stage two involved a systematic review of programs that have targeted school connectedness for reduced risk taking and injury. The results of this study revealed that interventions targeting school connectedness can be effective in reducing adolescent risk taking behaviour, and also provided an evidence base for the design of the current school connectedness intervention. The second study in Stage two examined teachers' understanding and perceptions of school connectedness. This qualitative study indicated that teachers consider students' connectedness to be an important factor that relates to their risk taking behaviour; and also provided directions and content for the intervention design stage. The third stage of this research built upon the findings of each of the previous studies, and involved the design, implementation and evaluation of a school connectedness intervention as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY). This connectedness intervention was designed as a professional development workshop for teachers of 13 to 14 year old adolescents, and was developed as a complementary component to the curriculum-based SPIY program. The SPIY connectedness component was implemented and evaluated using process and six-month impact evaluation methodologies. The results of this study revealed that teachers saw value in the program and made use of the strategies presented, and that program school students' self-reported violence risk behaviour was reduced at six-month follow-up. Despite these promising findings, the results of this study did not demonstrate a significant impact of the program on change in students' connectedness to school, relative to comparison schools. The positive impact on self-reported violence risk behaviour was however replicated in additional analyses comparing students participating in the connectedness version of SPIY with students participating in an earlier curriculumonly version of the program. This finding indicated that the connectedness component has additional benefits relating to reduction in violence risks, over and above a curriculum-only version of the program. This research was the first reported to address the relationship between school connectedness and adolescent injury outcomes, and to develop school connectedness as a component of an adolescent injury prevention program. Overall, the results of this program of research have demonstrated the importance of incorporating strategies targeting the wider school social context, including school connectedness, in adolescent injury prevention programs. This research has important implications for future research and practice in adolescent injury prevention.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Injury severity of pedestrian crashes in Singapore

Singapore is a highly urbanized city-state country where walking is an important mode of travel. Pedestrians form about 25% of road fatalities every year, making them one of the most vulnerable road user groups in Singapore. Engineering measures like provision of overhead pedestrian crossings and raised zebra crossings tend to address pedestrian safety in general, but there may be occasions where pedestrians are particularly vulnerable so that targeted interventions are more appropriate. The objective of this study is to identify factors and situations that affect the injury severity of pedestrians involved in traffic crashes. Six years of crash data from 2003 to 2008 containing around four thousands pedestrian crashes at roadway segments were analyzed. Injury severity of pedestrians—recorded as slight injury, major injury and fatal—were modeled as a function of roadway characteristics, traffic features, environmental factors and pedestrian demographics by an ordered probit model. Results suggest that the injury severity of pedestrians involved in crashes during night time is higher indicating that pedestrian visibility during night is a key issue in pedestrian safety. The likelihood of fatal or serious injuries is higher for crashes on roads with high speed limit, center and median lane of multi-lane roads, school zones, roads with two-way divided traffic type, and when pedestrians cross the roads. Elderly pedestrians appear to be involved in fatal and serious injury crashes more when they attempt to cross the road without using nearby crossing facilities. Specific countermeasures are recommended based on the findings of this study.

Analysis and prediction of the critical current density across [001]-tilt YBa2Cu3O7- grain boundaries of arbitrary misorientation angles

A qualitative analysis of the expected dilatation strain field in the vicinity of an array of grain-boundary (GB) dislocations is presented. The analysis provides a basis for the prediction of the critical current densities (jc) across low-angle YBa2Cu3O7- (YBCO) GBs as a function of their energy. The introduction of the GB energy allows the extension of the analysis to high-angle GBs using established models which predict the GB energy as a function of misorientation angle. The results are compared to published data for jc across [001]-tilt YBCO GBs for the full range of misorientations, showing a good fit. Since the GB energy is directly related to the GB structure, the analysis may allow a generalization of the scaling behavior of jc with the GB energy. © 1995 The American Physical Society.

Acute hamstring strain injury in track and field athletes : a 3-year observational study at the Penn Relay Carnival

Purpose To observe the incidence rates of hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) across different competition levels and ages during the Penn Relays Carnival. Methods Over a 3-year period all injuries treated by the medical staff were recorded. The type of injury, anatomic location, event in which the injury occurred, competition level and demographic data were documented. Absolute and relative HSI (per 1000 participants) were determined and odds ratios (OR) were calculated between genders, competition levels and events. Results Throughout the study period 48,473 athletes registered to participate in the Penn Relays Carnival, with 118 HSIs treated by the medical team. High school females displayed lesser risk of HSI than high school males (OR = 0.55, p = 0.021), and masters athletes were more likely than high school (OR = 4.26, p < 0.001) and college (OR = 3.55, p = 0.001) level athletes to suffer a HSI. The 4x400m relay displayed a greater likelihood of HSI compared to the 4x100m relay (OR = 1.77, p = 0.008). Conclusions High school males and masters levels athletes are most likely to suffer HSI, and there is higher risk in 400m events compared to 100m events.

Neuromuscular hamstring function in response to intermittent running and previous injury

This thesis examined the impact of previous hamstring injury and fatigue on the function of the hamstring muscles and their neural control. The work established the role of neuromuscular inhibition after hamstring injury and involved the development of a new field testing device for eccentric hamstring strength, which is now in high demand in elite sport worldwide. David has four peer-reviewed publications from this doctoral work.

Prediction of muscular architecture of the rectus femoris and vastus lateralis from EMG during isometric contractions in soccer players

Objectives The purpose of the study was to establish regression equations that could be used to predict muscle thickness and pennation angle at different intensities from electromyography (EMG) based measures of muscle activation during isometric contractions. Design Cross-sectional study. Methods Simultaneous ultrasonography and EMG were used to measure pennation angle, muscle thickness and muscle activity of the rectus femoris and vastus lateralis muscles, respectively, during graded isometric knee extension contractions performed on a Cybex dynamometer. Data form fifteen male soccer players were collected in increments of approximately 25% intensity of the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) ranging from rest to MVC. Results There was a significant correlation (P < 0.05) between ultrasound predictors and EMG measures for the muscle thickness of rectus femoris with an R2 value of 0.68. There was no significant correlation (P > 0.05) between ultrasound pennation angle for the vastus lateralis predictors for EMG muscle activity with an R2 value of 0.40. Conclusions The regression equations can be used to characterise muscle thickness more accurately and to determine how it changes with contraction intensity, this provides improved estimates of muscle force when using musculoskeletal models.

Comparative study on the protective effects of Yinchenhao Decoction against liver injury induced by alpha-naphthylisothiocyanate and carbon tetrachloride

OBJECTIVE: To optimize the animal model of liver injury that can properly represent the pathological characteristics of dampness-heat jaundice syndrome of traditional Chinese medicine. METHODS: The liver injury in the model rat was induced by alpha-naphthylisothiocyanate (ANIT) and carbon tetrachloride (CCl(4) ) respectively, and the effects of Yinchenhao Decoction (, YCHD), a proved effective Chinese medical formula for treating the dampness-heat jaundice syndrome in clinic, on the two liver injury models were evaluated by analyzing the serum level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), asparate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), malondialchehyche (MDA), total bilirubin (T-BIL), superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione peroxidase (GSH-PX) as well as the ratio of liver weight to body weight. The experimental data were analyzed by principal component analytical method of pattern recognition. RESULTS: The ratio of liver weight to body weight was significantly elevated in the ANIT and CCl(4) groups when compared with that in the normal control (P<0.01). The contents of ALT and T-BIL were significantly higher in the ANIT group than in the normal control (P<0.05,P<0.01), and the levels of AST, ALT and ALP were significantly elevated in CCl(4) group relative to those in the normal control P<0.01). In the YCHD group, the increase in AST, ALT and ALP levels was significantly reduced (P<0.05, P<0.01), but with no significant increase in serum T-BIL. In the CCl(4) intoxicated group, the MDA content was significantly increased and SOD, GSH-PX activities decreased significantly compared with those in the normal control group, respectively (P<0.01). The increase in MDA induced by CCl(4) was significantly reduced by YCHD P<0.05). CONCLUSION: YCHD showed significant effects on preventing liver injury progression induced by CCl(4), and the closest or most suitable animal model for damp-heat jaundice syndrome may be the one induced by CCl(4).

Prediction and proactivity in real-time interactive music systems

We advocate for the use of predictive techniques in interactive computer music systems. We suggest that the inclusion of prediction can assist in the design of proactive rather than reactive computational performance partners. We summarize the significant role prediction plays in human musical decisions, and the only modest use of prediction in interactive music systems to date. After describing how we are working toward employing predictive processes in our own metacreation software we reflect on future extensions to these approaches.

The effect of varied test instructions on neuropsychological performance following mild traumatic brain injury : an investigation of ‘diagnosis threat’

Diagnosis threat is a psychosocial factor that has been proposed to contribute to poor outcomes following mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI). This threat is thought to impair the cognitive test performance of individuals with mTBI because of negative injury stereotypes. University students (N= 45, 62.2% female) with a history of mTBI were randomly allocated to a diagnosis threat (DT, n=15), reduced threat (DT-reduced, n=15) or neutral (n=15) group. The reduced threat condition invoked a positive stereotype (i.e., that people with mTBI can perform well on cognitive tests). All participants were given neutral instructions before they completed baseline tests of: a) objective cognitive function across a number of domains; b) psychological symptoms; and, c) PCS symptoms, including self-reported cognitive and emotional difficulties. Participants then received either neutral, DT or DT-reduced instructions, before repeating the tests. Results were analyzed using separate mixed model ANOVAs; one for each dependent measure. The only significant result was for the 2 X 3 ANOVA on an objective test of attention/working memory, Digit Span, p<.05, such that the DT-reduced group performed better than the other groups, which were not different from each other. Although not consistent with predictions or earlier DT studies, the absence of group differences on most tests fits with several recent DT findings. The results of this study suggest that it is timely to reconsider the role of DT as a unique contributor to poor mTBI outcome.

Surveillance report on injury deaths in Shouguang, 1993-1997 [寿光市疾病监测点1993～1997年意外死亡报告]

In this rural population, injuries claimed 9% of all deaths and was the 4th cause of death. Injury mortality was much higher among men than that for women. The major injury causes were traffic accidents (39%) and suicide (38%). Traffic accidents were the first injury cause for men but suicide the first cause for women. Abstract in Chinese 为查明我市农村居民意外死亡情况，为制定相应控制措施提供参考，我们对寿光市疾病监测点１９９３～１９９７年的居民意外死亡资料进行了分析。死因分类按国际疾病分类（ＩＣＤ－９）标准，标化死亡率采用１９９０年全国标准人口构成计算。１９９３～１９９７年寿光市疾病...

Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of lean body mass and appendicular lean soft tissue in Indian men and women

Lean body mass (LBM) and muscle mass remains difficult to quantify in large epidemiological studies due to non-availability of inexpensive methods. We therefore developed anthropometric prediction equations to estimate the LBM and appendicular lean soft tissue (ALST) using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as a reference method. Healthy volunteers (n= 2220; 36% females; age 18-79 y) representing a wide range of body mass index (14-44 kg/m2) participated in this study. Their LBM including ALST was assessed by DXA along with anthropometric measurements. The sample was divided into prediction (60%) and validation (40%) sets. In the prediction set, a number of prediction models were constructed using DXA measured LBM and ALST estimates as dependent variables and a combination of anthropometric indices as independent variables. These equations were cross-validated in the validation set. Simple equations using age, height and weight explained > 90% variation in the LBM and ALST in both men and women. Additional variables (hip and limb circumferences and sum of SFTs) increased the explained variation by 5-8% in the fully adjusted models predicting LBM and ALST. More complex equations using all the above anthropometric variables could predict the DXA measured LBM and ALST accurately as indicated by low standard error of the estimate (LBM: 1.47 kg and 1.63 kg for men and women, respectively) as well as good agreement by Bland Altman analyses. These equations could be a valuable tool in large epidemiological studies assessing these body compartments in Indians and other population groups with similar body composition.