Simultaneous estimation of hunting pressure, harvest and hunter success rates using WinBUGS

The use of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models in the analysis of ecological data is increasingly prevalent. The implementation of these models has been heretofore limited to specifically written software that required extensive programming knowledge to create. The advent of WinBUGS provides access to Bayesian hierarchical models for those without the programming expertise to create their own models and allows for the more rapid implementation of new models and data analysis. This facility is demonstrated here using data collected by the Missouri Department of Conservation for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey of 1996. Three models are considered, the first uses the collected data to estimate the success rate for individual hunters at the county level and incorporates a conditional autoregressive (CAR) spatial effect. The second model builds upon the first by simultaneously estimating the success rate and harvest at the county level, while the third estimates the success rate and hunting pressure at the county level. These models are discussed in detail as well as their implementation in WinBUGS and the issues arising therein. Future areas of application for WinBUGS and the latest developments in WinBUGS are discussed as well.

A stochastic neighborhood conditional autoregressive model for spatial data

A spatial process observed over a lattice or a set of irregular regions is usually modeled using a conditionally autoregressive (CAR) model. The neighborhoods within a CAR model are generally formed deterministically using the inter-distances or boundaries between the regions. An extension of CAR model is proposed in this article where the selection of the neighborhood depends on unknown parameter(s). This extension is called a Stochastic Neighborhood CAR (SNCAR) model. The resulting model shows flexibility in accurately estimating covariance structures for data generated from a variety of spatial covariance models. Specific examples are illustrated using data generated from some common spatial covariance functions as well as real data concerning radioactive contamination of the soil in Switzerland after the Chernobyl accident.

A spatial-indexing model for measuring neighbourhood-level land-use and transport integration

Significant attention has been given in urban policy literature to the integration of land-use and transport planning and policies—with a view to curbing sprawling urban form and diminishing externalities associated with car-dependent travel patterns. By taking land-use and transport interaction into account, this debate mainly focuses on how a successful integration can contribute to societal well-being, providing efficient and balanced economic growth while accomplishing the goal of developing sustainable urban environments and communities. The integration is also a focal theme of contemporary urban development models, such as smart growth, liveable neighbourhoods, and new urbanism. Even though available planning policy options for ameliorating urban form and transport-related externalities have matured—owing to growing research and practice worldwide—there remains a lack of suitable evaluation models to reflect on the current status of urban form and travel problems or on the success of implemented integration policies. In this study we explore the applicability of indicator-based spatial indexing to assess land-use and transport integration at the neighbourhood level. For this, a spatial index is developed by a number of indicators compiled from international studies and trialled in Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. The results of this modelling study reveal that it is possible to propose an effective metric to determine the success level of city plans considering their sustainability performance via composite indicator methodology. The model proved useful in demarcating areas where planning intervention is applicable, and in identifying the most suitable locations for future urban development and plan amendments. Lastly, we integrate variance-based sensitivity analysis with the spatial indexing method, and discuss the applicability of the model in other urban contexts.

Privacy enhancements for hardware-based security modules

The increasing growth in the use of Hardware Security Modules (HSMs) towards identification and authentication of a security endpoint have raised numerous privacy and security concerns. HSMs have the ability to tie a system or an object, along with its users to the physical world. However, this enables tracking of the user and/or an object associated with the HSM. Current systems do not adequately address the privacy needs and as such are susceptible to various attacks. In this work, we analyse various security and privacy concerns that arise when deploying such hardware security modules and propose a system that allow users to create pseudonyms from a trusted master public-secret key pair. The proposed system is based on the intractability of factoring and finding square roots of a quadratic residue modulo a composite number, where the composite number is a product of two large primes. Along with the standard notion of protecting privacy of an user, the proposed system offers colligation between seemingly independent pseudonyms. This new property when combined with HSMs that store the master secret key is extremely beneficial to a user, as it offers a convenient way to generate a large number of pseudonyms using relatively small storage requirements.

Inclusion of tapered tubes in enhancing the crash performance of automotive frontal structures

This paper treats the design and analysis of an energy absorbing system. Experimental tests were conducted on a prototype, and these tests were used to validate a finite element model of the system. The model was then used to analyze the response of the system under dynamic impact loading. The response was compared with that of a similar system consisting of straight circular tubes, empty and foam-filled conical tubes. Three types of such supplementary devices were included in the energy absorbing system to examine the crush behavior and energy absorption capacity when subjected to axial and oblique impact loadings. The findings were used to develop design guidelines and recommendations for the implementation of tapered tubes in energy absorbing systems. To this end, the system was conceptual in form such that it could be adopted for a variety of applications. Nevertheless, for convenience, the approach in this study is to treat the system as a demonstrator car bumper system used to absorb impact energy during minor frontal collisions.

Mothers influencing mothers : the use of virtual discussion boards and their influence on consumption

Mothers represent a large segment of marketing dollars and traditionally, word of mouth was spread from mother to mother in a face-to-face environment, such as the school car park or mother’s groups. As families have evolved, so too has the traditional mother’s group. Limited academic studies have explored online mothers’ groups and how they impact on consumption. In order to explore the nature of this online influence and how mothers are influenced by other mothers online, a study was conducted through the use of observation and qualitative questioning. The data suggests that trust between mothers is generally high and mothers tend to trust the opinions of other mothers when they recommend a product. This is similar in other reference group contexts, however, mothers are communicating about brands frequently and influencing behaviour. This leads to a number of managerial and theoretical implications discussed in the paper.

Promoting physical activity to older adults in general practice

This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a general practice based intervention to increase physical activity (PA) levels among 50-70 year old adults. One hundred and thirty-six inactive patients (50-70 years) were randomised into three groups. All participants received brief advice and a written prescription from a GP. Group one received this 'usual care' only (GP, n=46); group two received individualised counselling and follow-up contact from an Exercise Scientist (ES, n=45); group three received a pedometer to supplement the ES counselling (PED, n=45). The Active Australia Survey was administered at baseline, after the 12- week intervention and at a 24-week follow-up. One-way ANOVA showed no significant group differences at baseline in self-reported PA. Average time spent walking increased in all three groups at the 24-week follow-up (GP, 68158min/wk, p=0.006; ES, 83160min/wk, p=0.001; PED, 87132min/wk, p<0.001). Total time in PA (weighted min/wk) also increased significantly in all three groups (GP, 98 213min/wk, p=0.003; ES, 108 182min/wk, p<0.001; PED, 158 229min/wk, p<0.001 ). The proportion of participants who initially did not meet National PA Guidelines (150 minutes and 5 sessions/week) but who met the Guidelines at the 12 and 24-week follow-up was 15% (12 weeks) and 20% (24 weeks) in the GP group compared with 36% and 24% in the ES group and 20% and 42% in the PED group. All three intervention strategies were effective in increasing PA, but the ES intervention resulted in a higher proportion of active participants after 12 weeks and the PED group resulted in a higher proportion of active participants after 24 weeks.

Promoting physical activity to older adults through general practice

This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a general practice based intervention to increase physical activity (PA) levels among 50-70 year old adults. One hundred and thirty-six inactive patients (50-70 years) were randomised into three groups. All participants received brief advice and a written prescription from a GP. Group one received this 'usual care' only (GP, n=46); group two received individualised counselling and follow-up contact from an Exercise Scientist (ES, n=45); group three received a pedometer to supplement the ES counselling (PED, n=45). The Active Australia Survey was administered at baseline, after the 12- week intervention and at a 24-week follow-up. One-way ANOVA showed no significant group differences at baseline in self-reported PA. Average time spent walking increased in all three groups at the 24-week follow-up (GP, 68158min/wk, p=0.006; ES, 83160min/wk, p=0.001; PED, 87132min/wk, p<0.001). Total time in PA (weighted min/wk) also increased significantly in all three groups (GP, 98 213min/wk, p=0.003; ES, 108 182min/wk, p<0.001; PED, 158 229min/wk, p<0.001 ). The proportion of participants who initially did not meet National PA Guidelines (150 minutes and 5 sessions/week) but who met the Guidelines at the 12 and 24-week follow-up was 15% (12 weeks) and 20% (24 weeks) in the GP group compared with 36% and 24% in the ES group and 20% and 42% in the PED group. All three intervention strategies were effective in increasing PA, but the ES intervention resulted in a higher proportion of active participants after 12 weeks and the PED group resulted in a higher proportion of active participants after 24 weeks.

All-environment visual place recognition with SMART

This paper presents Sequence Matching Across Route Traversals (SMART); a generally applicable sequence-based place recognition algorithm. SMART provides invariance to changes in illumination and vehicle speed while also providing moderate pose invariance and robustness to environmental aliasing. We evaluate SMART on vehicles travelling at highly variable speeds in two challenging environments; firstly, on an all-terrain vehicle in an off-road, forest track and secondly, using a passenger car traversing an urban environment across day and night. We provide comparative results to the current state-of-the-art SeqSLAM algorithm and investigate the effects of altering SMART’s image matching parameters. Additionally, we conduct an extensive study of the relationship between image sequence length and SMART’s matching performance. Our results show viable place recognition performance in both environments with short 10-metre sequences, and up to 96% recall at 100% precision across extreme day-night cycles when longer image sequences are used.

Recycling concrete: An undiscovered source of ultrafine particles

While concrete recycling is practiced worldwide, there are many unanswered questions in relation to ultrafine particle (UFP; Dp<100nm) emissions and exposure around recycling sites. In particular: (i) Does recycling produce UFPs and in what quantities? (ii) How do they disperse around the source? (iii) What impact does recycling have on ambient particle number concentrations (PNCs) and exposure? (iv) How effective are commonly used dust respirators to limit exposure? We measured size-resolved particles in the 5-560 nm range at five distances from a simulated concrete recycling source and found that: (i) the size distributions were multimodal, with up to ~93% of total PNC in the UFP size range; and (ii) dilution was a key particle transformation mechanism. UFPs showed a much slower decay rate, requiring ~62% more distance to reach 10% of their initial concentration compared with their larger counterparts. Compared with typical urban exposure during car journeys, exposure decay profiles showed up to ~5 times higher respiratory deposition within 10 m of the source. Dust respirators were found to remove half of total PNC; however the removal factor for UFPs was only ~57% of that observed in the 100-560 nm size range. These findings highlight a need for developing an understanding of the nature of the particles as well as for better control measures to limit UFP exposure.

Are lemons really hot potatoes?

We model the hazard rate for car ownership spells. Our model allows us to distinguish among different types of adverse selection effects by observing the type of unobserved heterogeneity across owners of the same car. Our empirical results strongly suggest that there is a lemons effect because there is significant unobserved heterogeneity. However, they also suggest that the lemons effect is caused by the first owner rather than the manufacturer. Had the manufacturer created the lemon, the unobserved heterogeneity would be positively correlated over all owners of a given car. Instead we observe a negative correlation between the unobserved heterogeneity term for the first owner and the unobserved heterogeneity term for subsequent owners. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Foreword

Foreword for the book, "INTERCHANGING: Future designs for responsive transport environments"

Fusiform activation to animals is driven by the process, not the stimulus

Previous studies have found that the lateral posterior fusiform gyri respond more robustly to pictures of animals than pictures of manmade objects and suggested that these regions encode the visual properties characteristic of animals. We suggest that such effects actually reflect processing demands arising when items with similar representations must be finely discriminated. In a positron emission tomography (PET) study of category verification with colored photographs of animals and vehicles, there was robust animal-specific activation in the lateral posterior fusiform gyri when stimuli were categorized at an intermediate level of specificity (e.g., dog or car). However, when the same photographs were categorized at a more specific level (e.g., Labrador or BMW), these regions responded equally strongly to animals and vehicles. We conclude that the lateral posterior fusiform does not encode domain-specific representations of animals or visual properties characteristic of animals. Instead, these regions are strongly activated whenever an item must be discriminated from many close visual or semantic competitors. Apparent category effects arise because, at an intermediate level of specificity, animals have more visual and semantic competitors than do artifacts.

Evaluation of emerging intelligent transport systems to improve safety on level crossings : an overview

Safety at railway level crossings (RLX) is one part of a wider picture of safety within the whole transport system. Governments, the rail industry and road organisations have used a variety of countermeasures for many years to improve RLX safety. New types of interventions are required in order to reduce the number of crashes and associated social costs at railway crossings. This paper presents the results of a large research program which aimed to assess the effectiveness of emerging Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) interventions, both on-road and in-vehicle based, to improve the safety of car drivers at RLXs in Australia. The three most promising technologies selected from the literature review and focus groups were tested in an advanced driving simulator to provide a detailed assessment of their effects on driver behaviour. The three interventions were: (i) in-vehicle visual warning using a GPS/smartphone navigation-like system, (ii) in-vehicle audio warning and; (iii) on-road intervention known as valet system (warning lights on the road surface activated as a train approaches). The effects of these technologies on 57 participants were assessed in a systematic approach focusing on the safety of the intervention, effects on the road traffic around the crossings and driver’s acceptance of the technology. Given that the ITS interventions were likely to provide a benefit by improving the driver’s awareness of the crossing status in low visibility conditions, such conditions were investigated through curves in the track before arriving at the crossing. ITS interventions were also expected to improve driver behaviour at crossings with high traffic (blocking back issue), which were also investigated at active crossings. The key findings are: (i) interventions at passive crossings are likely to provide safety benefits; (ii) the benefits of ITS interventions on driver behaviour at active crossings are limited; (iii) the trialled ITS interventions did not show any issues in terms of driver distraction, driver acceptance or traffic delays; (iv) these interventions are easy to use, do not increase driver workload substantially; (v) participants’ intention to use the technology is high and; (vi) participants saw most value in succinct messages about approaching trains as opposed to knowing the RLX locations or the imminence of a collision with a train.

The Habitual Rhythms of Becoming-Involved: Insights into Participation Experiences in Urban Spaces by Children with Diverse Mobility

This chapter reports on a study that reveals the essence of participation in urban spaces by ten children who live with various physical conditions: Muscular Dystrophy, Cerebral Palsy, and Autoimmune Rheumatic Diseases. These conditions affect muscle and movement differently resulting in diverse ways in which children move through space (personal mobility). The children at the time of the research were 9-12 years of age residing in South-east Queensland, Australia. The approach and methods selected for this study, interpretive phenomenological inquiry and grounded theory, were chosen for their capacity to capture the complexity and multiple interactions of the child’s urban living. The confronting and poignant accounts by children and their families of their experiences produced a new way of understanding the concept of participation, as a ‘journey of becoming involved.’ Their accounts of performing everyday routines (e.g. leaving home, getting in and out of the car, and entering places) in urban spaces (neighbourhood streets, schools, open spaces, shopping centres, and hospitals) revealed differences in the way settings were experienced. These differences were associated with the interplay between the body, space and context. Where interplays were problematic, explicit decisions about children’s involvement were made. These decisions were described in terms of ‘avoid going’, ‘pick and choose’, ‘discontinue’, ‘accept’, or ‘contest.’ What these decisions mean is some spaces are avoided, some journeys are discontinued, and some barriers encountered in journeys are normalised as everyday experiences, i.e. ‘tolerable discrimination’. These actions resulted in experiences of non-participation or partial–tokenistic participation. The key substantive contribution of the research lies in the identification of points in children’s journeys that shape participation experience. These points identify where future interventions in policy, programming and design can be made to make real and sustaining changes to lives of children and their families in geographies crucial to urban living.