A continuous time model for election timing

We consider a continuous time model for election timing in a Majoritarian Parliamentary System where the government maintains a constitutional right to call an early election. Our model is based on the two-party-preferred data that measure the popularity of the government and the opposition over time. We describe the poll process by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) and use a martingale approach to derive a Partial Differential Equation (PDE) for the government’s expected remaining life in office. A comparison is made between a three-year and a four-year maximum term and we also provide the exercise boundary for calling an election. Impacts on changes in parameters in the SDE, the probability of winning the election and maximum terms on the call exercise boundaries are discussed and analysed. An application of our model to the Australian Federal Election for House of Representatives is also given.

Development of the sustainable building and construction products industry in Australia

This paper draws on a major study the authors conducted for the Australian Government in 2009. It focuses on the diffusion issues surrounding the uptake of sustainable building and construction products in Australia. Innovative sustainable products can minimise the environmental impact during construction, while maximising asset performance, durability and re-use. However, there are significant challenges faced by designers and clients in the selection of appropriate sustainable products in consideration of the integrated design solution, including overall energy efficiency, water conservation, maintenance and durability, low-impact use and consumption. The paper is a review of the current state of sustainable energy and material product innovations in Australia. It examines the system dynamics surrounding these innovations as well as the drivers and obstacles to their diffusion throughout the Australian construction industry. The case product types reviewed comprise: solar energy technology, small wind turbines, advanced concrete technology, and warm-mixed asphalt. The conclusions highlight the important role played by Australian governments in facilitating improved adoption rates. This applies to governments in their various roles, but particularly as clients/owners, regulators, and investors in education, training, research and development. In their role as clients/owners, the paper suggests that government can better facilitate innovation within the construction industry by adjusting specification policies to encourage the uptake of sustainable products. In the role as regulators, findings suggest governments should be encouraging the application of innovative finance options and positive end-user incentives to promote sustainable product uptake. Also, further education for project-based firms and the client/end users about the long-term financial and environmental benefits of innovative sustainable products is required. As more of the economy’s resources are diverted away from business-as-usual and into the use of sustainable products, some project-based firms may face short-term financial pain in re-shaping their businesses. Government policy initiatives can encourage firms make the necessary adjustments to improve innovative sustainable product diffusion throughout the industry.

Assessing population limits : a carrying capacity approach to planning

While purporting to enhance Australia’s sustainability, the federal government’s Population Strategy rejects the assessment of the limiting factors to future population growth, thus avoiding urgent threshold issues such as resource depletion and environmental destruction. A more forward-thinking and whole-system perspective would assess and incorporate critical biophysical limits into governance processes with suitable prioritisation. It would encourage communities to examine their individual and collective responsibilities in the context of these limits in order to most equitably optimise outcomes; and it would employ both a resource-based examination of minimum population requirements, and an impact-based assessment of maximum thresholds. This carrying capacity approach to planning could help guide society towards a more sustainable future.

Sustainable home, Gladstone

The design for the Gladstone Sustainable Home was an invited commission which contributed to the Queenland Governments Smart and Sustainable Homes Program, a legacy borne out of the 2004 Year of the Built Environment. The Sustainable Homes Program involved the partnering of the Queensland Government and Design/Building industry to promote and engage with sustainable housing. The Gladstone Sustainable Home incorporated 3 principles of sustainability - social, economic and environmental, and is listed within the Government Sustainable Homes website.

Using a knowledge-based approach : the way healthy communities make decisions

The planning for Knowledge Cities faces significant challenges due to the lack of effective information tools. These challenges are magnified while planning healthy communities. The Australian Health Information Council (AHIC) concluded in its last report that health information needs to be shared more effectively (AHIC, 2008). Some research justifies the use of Decision Support Systems (DSS) as an E-planning tool, particularly in the context of healthy communities. However, very limited research has been conducted in this area to date, especially in terms of evaluating the impact of these tools on decision-makers within the health planning practice. The paper presents the methodological instruments which were developed to measure the impact of the E-planning tool (i.e., Health Decision Support System [HDSS])) on a group of health planners, namely, the Logan Beaudesert Health Coalition (LBHC). The paper is focused on the culture in which decisions were made before and after the intervention of the HDSS. Subsequently, the paper presents the observed impact of the HDSS tool, to facilitate a knowledge-based decision-making approach. This study is an attempt to make some contribution to the Knowledge Cities literature in the context of planning healthy communities by adopting E-planning tools.

National Cultural Policy submission

This was my submission to the Australian Federal Government’s call for submissions in response to the National Cultural Policy Discussion Paper.

Human rights and environmental wrongs : achieving environmental justice through human rights law

The links between the environment and human rights are well established internationally. It is accepted that environmental problems impact on individuals’ and communities’ enjoyment of rights which are guaranteed to them under international human rights law. Environmental issues also impact on governments’ capacity to protect and fulfil the rights of their citizens. In addition to these links between the environment and human rights, it is argued that human rights principles offer a strategy for addressing environmental injustice. The justice implications of environmental problems are well documented, with many examples where pollution, deforestation or other degradation disproportionately impacts upon poorer neighbourhoods or areas populated by minority groups. On the international level, there are environmental injustices which exist between developed and developing states. Further, there are also potential injustices for future generations. This paper investigates the role of human rights principles in addressing these instances of environmental injustice, and argues that the framework of human rights norms provides an approach to environmental governance which can help to minimise injustice and promote the interests of those groups who are most adversely affected. Further, it suggests that the human rights enforcement mechanisms which exist at international law could be utilised to lend more weight to claims for more equitable environmental policies.

Urban informatics for rural knowledge economies

This position paper provides an overview of a proposed study that seeks to design and develop tools, methods and applications of urban informatics to promote an innovation culture and knowledge economy in regional Queensland. The National Broadband Network has the potential to leapfrog regional Queensland to join the knowledge economy, but effective applications and content strategies are required. The Edge is the Queensland Government’s Digital Culture Centre to engage young people in the technology/culture nexus. This position paper provides an overview of a proposed study that will set up Living Labs at The Edge and in a new precinct in rural Queensland (Goondiwindi) as sites to trial strategies and applications that engage people in entrepreneurial thinking, sustainability initiatives, and new creative practices across the urban and rural boundaries.

A preliminary theory of dark network resilience

A crucial contemporary policy question for governments across the globe is how to cope with international crime and terrorist networks. Many such “dark” networks—that is, networks that operate covertly and illegally—display a remarkable level of resilience when faced with shocks and attacks. Based on an in-depth study of three cases (MK, the armed wing of the African National Congress in South Africa during apartheid; FARC, the Marxist guerrilla movement in Colombia; and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, LTTE, in Sri Lanka), we present a set of propositions to outline how shocks impact dark network characteristics (resources and legitimacy) and networked capabilities (replacing actors, linkages, balancing integration and differentiation) and how these in turn affect a dark network's resilience over time. We discuss the implications of our findings for policymakers.

Re-thinking how we plan to address technically complex problems : drawing on planning theory to guide practice in revision of land use plans in coastal high hazard zones

Queensland's new State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection, released in March and approved in April 2011 as part of the Queensland Coastal Plan, stipulates that local governments prepare and implement adaptation strategies for built up areas projected to be subject to coastal hazards between present day and 2100. Urban localities within the delineated coastal high hazard zone (as determined by models incorporating a 0.8 meter rise in sea level and a 10% increase in the maximum cyclone activity) will be required to re-evaluate their plans to accommodate growth, revising land use plans to minimise impacts of anticipated erosion and flooding on developed areas and infrastructure. While implementation of such strategies would aid in avoidance or minimisation of risk exposure, communities are likely to face significant challenges in such implementation, especially as development in Queensland is so intensely focussed upon its coasts with these new policies directing development away from highly desirable waterfront land. This paper examines models of planning theory to understand how we plan when faced with technically complex problems towards formulation of a framework for evaluating and improving practice.

Improving self organizing capabilities of local communities for sustainable development in decentralized Indonesia : the roles of procedural justice and social learning

The development planning process introduced under Law No. 25/2004 is said to be a better approach to increase public participation in decentralised Indonesia. This Law has introduced planning mechanisms, called Musyawarah Perencanaan Pembangunan (musrenbang), to provide a forum for development planning. In spite of the expressed intention of these mechanisms to improve public participation, some empirical observations have cast doubt on the outcomes. As a result, some local governments have tried to provide alternative mechanisms for participatory local development planning processes. Since planning constitutes one of the most effective ways to improve community empowerment, this paper aims to examine the extent to which the alternative local development planning process in Indonesia provides sufficient opportunities to improve the self organising capabilities of communities to sustain development programs to meet local needs. In so doing, this paper explores the key elements and approaches of the concept of community empowerment and shows how they can be incorporated within planning processes. Based on this, it then examines the problems encountered by musrenbang in increasing community empowerment. Having done this, it is argued that to change current unfavourable outcomes, procedural justice and social learning approaches need to be incorporated as pathways to community empowerment. Lastly the capacity of an alternative local planning process, called Sistem Dukungan (SISDUK), introduced in South Sulawesi, offering scope to incorporate procedural justice and social learning is explored as a means to improve the self organizing capabilities of local communities.

Towards testing a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). As background to this challenge, a brief review is given of current practice in the selection of major public sector infrastructure in Australia, along with a review of the related literature concerning the Multi-Attribute Utility Approach (MAUA) and the effect of MAUA on the role of risk management in procurement selection. To contribute towards addressing the key weaknesses of MAUA, a new first-order procurement decision making model is mentioned. A brief summary is also given of the research method and hypothesis used to test and develop the new procurement model and which uses competition as the dependent variable and as a proxy for VfM. The hypothesis is given as follows: When the actual procurement mode matches the theoretical/predicted procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match optimum competition (based on actual prevailing capacity vis-à-vis the theoretical/predicted procurement mode) and subject to efficient tendering. The aim of this paper is to report on progress towards testing this hypothesis in terms of an analysis of two of the four data components in the hypothesis. That is, actual procurement and actual competition across 87 road and health major public sector projects in Australia. In conclusion, it is noted that the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has seen a significant increase in competition in public sector major road and health infrastructure and if any imperfections in procurement and/or tendering are discernible, then this would create the opportunity, through the deployment of economic principles embedded in the new procurement model and/or adjustments in tendering, to maintain some of this higher level post-GFC competition throughout the next business cycle/upturn in demand including private sector demand. Finally, the paper previews the next steps in the research with regard to collection and analysis of data concerning theoretical/predicted procurement and optimum competition.

Educational change and youth voice: Informing school action on cyberbullying

Change is a regular part of school life. Educational innovations are constantly being implements in order to benefit students, improve outcomes and meet the obligations and accountability demands of governments. Rapid social and technological change has occurred within and around schools during the past 15 or more years, impacting upon curricula and pedagogies. Simultaneously, there has been a trend towards incorporating youth voice, where young people share in the decisions that will impact on their school experiences (Mitra, 2008a, 2004). Most recently, with the advent of the first National Australian Curriculum (McGaw, 2010), there is an imposed curriculum change, which reflects the growing global trend towards centralised control over what students learn in school (Zhao, 2011) and highlights that schools have to respond to change from all levels. Spears (in press) also notes that parents are raising children in an increasingly wireless world which is far removed from the one in which they were raised. Educators are teaching in schools that are vastly different technologically from those they knew as children and adolescents, or even those in which they were teaching a decade ago. Children born in 1995, the year when the Internet was first commercialised, are 16 years old in 2011 and, whilst parents may have embraced technological advances in their own adult working or social lives, they are yet to fathom fully what it means for their children and their relationships: to be educated and to socialise in the midst of mobile social media. Young people have greater access to more information than at any time past and move seamlessly between online and offline environments, often referring to them as ‘the same life’ (Spears, Kofoed, Bartolo, Palermiti and Castabile, in press). Along with these changes has come the transformation of traditional forms of bullying to cyberbullying, amid the public perception that bullying generally is becoming worse in schools.

Risky strategic behaviour : unintended consequences of good intentions in the homelessness service system

The delivery of human services occurs through a complex and often volatile system characterised by both competing and cooperating efforts. A recent strategic intention of government has been to integrate disparate service providers and programs into a more effective and efficient system using competitive funding regimes. A program of amalgamation has also been forecast and promoted as a further mechanism by which to link up smaller agencies thus creating economy and efficiency in the scale and scope of their service modes. Despite the current reliance on competitive funding models and amalgamation as the preferred ways forward for the sector little is known about their integrative capacity including their ability to predict outcomes and their consequences : the ‘unknown unknowns’. Drawing on an extensive data set of human services integration initiatives in Queensland, Australia, this paper examines the impact of government policy and service models and the risks arising from the tensions between competition and accountability on the one hand and the established good will and trust on the other. It is argued that unresolved, these tensions can lead to a weakening of the social infrastructure and make the system more vulnerable to inherent systemic risks. The paper finds that government’s efforts to externalise risk to the non-government sector leads to fragmentation of the service system and fractured collaborative capability. These unintended outcomes themselves have the unintended consequence of leaving governments disconnected from the service system and unable to provide the leadership role and direction necessary for sustained integration. Moreover, facilitating such a leadership role is undermined by behaviours that are directly contrary to collective integration models.

Big, bigger, best? The impact of reforms on the not-for-profit sector in Queensland

Organisations within the not-for-profit sector provide services to individuals and groups that government and for-profit organisations cannot or will not consider. The not-for-profit sector has come to be a vibrant and rich agglomeration of services and programs that operate under a myriad of philosophical stances, service orientation, client groupings and operational capacities. In Australia these organisations and services are providing social support and service assistance to many people in the community; often targeting their assistance to the most difficult of clients. Initially, in undertaking this role, the not-for-profit sector received limited sponsorship from government. Over time governments assumed greater responsibility in the form of service grants to particular groups: ‘the worthy poor’. More recently, they have entered into contractual service agreements with the not-for-profit sector, which specify the nature of the outcomes to be achieved and, to a degree, the way in which the services will be provided. A consequence of this growing shift to a more marketised model of service contracting, often offered-up under the label of enhanced collaborative practice, has been increased competitiveness between agencies that had previously worked well together (Keast and Brown, 2006). Another trend emerging from the market approach is the entrance of for-profit providers. These larger organisations have higher levels of organisational capacity with considerable organisational slack to allow them to adopt new service roles. Shaped almost as ‘shadow governments’ they appear to be a strong preference for governments looking for greater accountability of outcomes and an easier way to control the interaction with the conventional not-for-profit sector. The question is will governments’ apparent preference for larger organisational arrangements lead to the demise of the vibrancy of the not-for-profit sector and impact on service provision to those people who fall outside of the remit of the new service providers? To address this issue, this paper uses information gleaned from a state-wide survey of not-for-profit organisations in Queensland, Australia which included organisational size, operational scope, funding arrangements and governance/management approaches. Supplementing this information is qualitative data derived from 17 focus groups and 120 interviews conducted over ten years of study of this sector. The findings contribute to greater understanding of the practice and theory of the future provision of social services.