Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

How Modern Governments Made Prostitution a Social Problem: Creating a Responsible Prostitute Population

Table of Contents Acknowledgments Preface by Dr. Pat Carlen Introduction 1. Political Languages of Prostitution 2. Genealogical Analysis: Documenting The Disorder of Things 3. From Death Rituals to Health Practices 4. Policing Female Prostitutes 5. Private Remedies for Public Concerns 6. The Emergence of the Male Prostitute 7. From Procreation to Pleasure 8. HIV/AIDS and Prostitution Conclusion Bibliography Index

One and the same: Integrative taxonomic evidence that Bactrocera invadens (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the same species as the Oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis

The invasive fruit fly Bactrocera invadens Drew, Tsuruta & White, and the Oriental fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) are highly destructive horticultural pests of global significance. Bactrocera invadens originates from the Indian subcontinent and has recently invaded all of sub-Saharan Africa, while B. dorsalis principally occurs from the Indian subcontinent towards southern China and South-east Asia. High morphological and genetic similarity has cast doubt over whether B. invadens is a distinct species from B. dorsalis. Addressing this issue within an integrative taxonomic framework, we sampled from across the geographic distribution of both taxa and: (i) analysed morphological variation, including those characters considered diagnostic (scutum colour, length of aedeagus, width of postsutural lateral vittae, wing size, and wing shape); (ii) sequenced four loci (ITS1, ITS2, cox1 and nad4) for phylogenetic inference, and; (iii) generated a cox1 haplotype network to examine population structure. Molecular analyses included the closely related species, Bactrocera kandiensis Drew & Hancock. Scutum colour varies from red-brown to fully black for individuals from Africa and the Indian subcontinent. All individuals east of the Indian subcontinent are black except for a few red-brown individuals from China. The postsutural lateral vittae width of B. invadens is narrower than B. dorsalis from eastern Asia, but the variation is clinal, with subcontinent B. dorsalis populations intermediate in size. Aedeagus length, wing shape and wing size cannot discriminate between the two taxa. Phylogenetic analyses failed to resolve B. invadens from B. dorsalis, but did resolve B. kandiensis. Bactrocera dorsalis and B. invadens shared cox1 haplotypes, yet the haplotype network pattern does not reflect current taxonomy or patterns in thoracic colour. Some individuals of B. dorsalis/B. invadens possessed haplotypes more closely related to B. kandiensis than to conspecifics, suggestive of mitochondrial introgression between these species. The combined evidence fails to support the delimitation of B. dorsalis and B. invadens as separate biological species. Consequently, existing biological data for B. dorsalis may be applied to the invasive population in Africa. Our recommendation, in line with other recent publications, is that B. invadens be synonymized with B. dorsalis.

Incidence and fatality of serious suicide attempts in a predominantly rural population in Shandong, China : a public health surveillance study

Objectives To estimate the incidence of serious suicide attempts (SSAs, defined as suicide attempts resulting in either death or hospitalisation) and to examine factors associated with fatality among these attempters. Design A surveillance study of incidence and mortality. Linked data from two public health surveillance systems were analysed. Setting Three selected counties in Shandong, China. Participants All residents in the three selected counties. Outcome measures Incidence rate ( per 100 000 person-years) and case fatality rate (%). Methods Records of suicide deaths and hospitalisations that occurred among residents in selected counties during 2009–2011 (5 623 323 person-years) were extracted from electronic databases of the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Injury Surveillance System (ISS) and were linked by name, sex, residence and time of suicide attempt. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to examine the factors associated with a higher or lower fatality rate. Results The incidence of SSAs was estimated to be 46 (95% CI 44 to 48) per 100 000 person-years, which was 1.5 times higher in rural versus urban areas, slightly higher among females, and increased with age. Among all SSAs, 51% were hospitalised and survived, 9% were hospitalised but later died and 40% died with no hospitalisation. Most suicide deaths (81%) were not hospitalised and most hospitalised SSAs (85%) survived. The fatality rate was 49% overall, but was significantly higher among attempters living in rural areas, who were male, older, with lower education or with a farming occupation. With regard to the method of suicide, fatality was lowest for non-pesticide poisons (7%) and highest for hanging (97%). Conclusions The incidence of serious suicide attempts is substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas of China. The risk of death is influenced by the attempter’s sex, age, education level, occupation, method used and season of year.

The biology of an isolated population of American Flamingo Phoenicopterus ruber in the Galapagos Islands

A genetically and morphologically divergent population of c.500 American Flamingos, isolated from the parental Caribbean stock of Phoenicopterus ruber, occurs in the Galapagos archipelago. Based primarily on data from a 3-year study, we provide the first description of the feeding and breeding biology of this population. Galapagos provides a suitable habitat comprising lagoons on a number of islands, among which the flamingos travel in response to food and nest site availability. The occurrence and qualnity of some food species was associated with the chlorosity of lagoon water, as was the distribution of flamingos. They bred opportunistically at five lagoons on four islands, sometimes simultaneously on more than one island. Group display usually involved approx 20 birds and colonies contained as few as three nests. Laying occurred during nine months of the year... We review potential dangers to this unique population and suggest conservation measures.

Temporal and spatial distribution and habitat associations of an urban population of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus)

Two ultrasound survey methods were used to determine the presence and activity patterns of New Zealand long-tailed bats (Chalinolobus tuberculatus) in the city of Hamilton. First, 13 monthly surveys conducted at 18 green spaces found C. tuberculatus in only one urban forest reserve, Hammond Bush, where they were found consistently throughout the year. Bat activity was strongly related to temperature. Second, twice-yearly citywide surveys conducted over 2 years determined the distribution and habitat associations of C. tuberculatus. Bats were found only in the southern part of the city and were strongly associated with the Waikato River. Bat activity was negatively correlated with housing and street light density and positively correlated with topographical complexity. In Hamilton, topographical complexity indicates the presence of gullies. Gullies probably provide foraging and roosting opportunities and connect the river to distant forest patches. These results suggest that urban habitats can be useful for bats if gullies can link these to distant habitat fragments.

Wing morphology, echolocation calls, diet and emergence time of black-bearded tomb bats (Taphozous melanopogon, Emballonuridae) from southwest China

We studied the wing morphology, echolocation calls, diet and emergence time of the black-bearded tomb bat (Taphozous melanopogon) from May to October 2006 in Guangxi Province, southwest China. Taphozous melanopogon has wings with high aspect ratio, high loading and pointed wing-tip shape-characteristics associated with fast flight in open space. This species usually produces low-intensity, low frequency, and frequency-modulated (FM) calls usually containing up to four harmonics, with most energy in the second (or sometimes third) harmonic. The diet of this species consists mostly of Lepidoptera and Hemiptera. Timing of evening emergence is correlated with the time of sunset. This is the first study to describe the flight and echolocation behavior of this species in China, and opens the way for future studies of its biology.

Epidemiology and risk factors of oral cancer in South Africa

Head and neck cancers are some of the leading cancers in the coloured and black South African male population and the perception exists that the incidence rates are rising. Aims: To determine the standardised morbidity rates and some of the risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa. Methods: Using histologically verified data from the National Cancer Registry, the age standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and life-time risks (LR) of oral cancer in South Africa were calculated for 1988-1991.2. In an ongoing case control study (1995 +) among black patients in Johannesburg/Soweto, adjusted odds ratios for developing oral cancers in relation to tobacco and alcohol consumption were calculated. Results: Coloured males vs. females: ASIR 13.13 vs. 3.5 (/100,000/year), LR 1:65 vs. 1:244. Black males vs. females: ASIR 9.06 vs. 1.75, LR 1:86 and 1:455. White males vs. females: ASIR 8.06 vs. 3.18, LR 1:104 vs. 1:278. Asian males vs. females: ASIR 5.24 vs. 6.66, LR 1:161 vs. 1:125. The odds ratio for oral cancer in black males in relation to smoking was 7.0 (95% CI 3.0-14.6) and daily alcohol consumption 1.3 (95% CI 0.6-2.8). In black females the odds ratios in relation to smoking were 3.9 (95% CI 1.7 8.9) and daily alcohol consumption 1.7(95% CI 0.7-4.1). Conclusions: The risk factors for oral cancer in South Africa are multiple and gender discrepancies in ASIR and LR signal differences in exposure to carcinogens. It is unclear whether the incidence of oral cancers will rise in the future.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in South Africa in 2000

Objectives To estimate the burden of disease attributable to high cholesterol in adults aged 30 years and older in South Africa in 2000. Design World Health Organization comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology was followed. Small community studies were used to derive the prevalence by population group. Population-attributable fractions were calculated and applied to revised burden of disease estimates for the relevant disease categories for each population group. The total attributable burden for South Africa in 2000 was obtained by adding the burden attributed to high cholesterol for the four population groups. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for uncertainty analysis. Setting South Africa. Subjects Black African, coloured, white and Indian adults aged 30 years and older. Outcome measures Mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and ischaemic stroke. Results Overall, about 59% of IHD and 29% of ischaemic stroke burden in adult males and females (30+ years) were attributable to high cholesterol (≥ 3.8 mmol/l), with marked variation by population group. High cholesterol was estimated to have caused 24 144 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 22 404 - 25 286) or 4.6% (95% uncertainty interval 4.3 - 4.9%) of all deaths in South Africa in 2000. Since most cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease events occurred in middle or old age, the loss of life years comprised a smaller proportion of the total: 222 923 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 206 712 - 233 460) or 1.4% of all DALYs (95% uncertainty interval 1.3 - 1.4%) in South Africa in 2000. Conclusions High cholesterol is an important cardiovascular risk factor in all population groups in South Africa.

Risk factors for oesophageal, lung, oral and laryngeal cancers in black South Africans

The authors used data collected from 1995 to 1999, from an on-going cancer case–control study in greater Johannesburg, to estimate the importance of tobacco and alcohol consumption and other suspected risk factors with respect to cancer of the oesophagus (267 men and 138 women), lung (105 men and 41 women), oral cavity (87 men and 37 women), and larynx (51 men). Cancers not associated with tobacco or alcohol consumption were used as controls (804 men and 1370 women). Tobacco smoking was found to be the major risk factor for all of these cancers with odds ratios ranging from 2.6 (95% CI 1.5–4.5) for oesophageal cancer in female ex-smokers to 50.9 (95% CI 12.6–204.6) for lung cancer in women, and 23.9 (95% CI 9.5–60.3) for lung cancer and 23.6 (95% CI 4.6–121.2) for laryngeal cancer in men who smoked 15 or more grams of tobacco a day. This is the first time an association between smoking and oral and laryngeal cancers has been shown in sub-Saharan Africa. Long-term residence in the Transkei region in the southeast of the country continues to be a risk factor for oesophageal cancer, especially in women (odds ratio=14.7, 95% CI 4.7–46.0), possibly due to nutritional factors. There was a slight increase in lung cancer (odds ratio=2.9, 95% CI 1.1–7.5) in men working in ‘potentially noxious’ industries. ‘Frequent’ alcohol consumption, on its own, caused a marginally elevated risk for oesophageal cancer (odds ratio=1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.9, for women and odds ratio=1.8, 95% CI 1.2–2.8, for men). The risks for oesophageal cancer in relation to alcohol consumption increased significantly in male and female smokers (odds ratio=4.7, 95% CI=2.8–7.9 in males and odds ratio=4.8, 95% CI 3.2–6.1 in females). The above results are broadly in line with international findings.

Antibodies against human herpesvirus 8 in black South African patients with cancer

Background Infection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) has been consistently linked to Kaposi's sarcoma, but its mode of transmission, association with other cancers, and interaction with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are largely unknown. Methods Between January 1992 and December 1997, we interviewed 3591 black patients with cancer in Johannesburg and Soweto, South Africa. Blood was tested for antibodies against HIV-1 and HHV-8 in 3344 of the patients. Antibodies against HHV-8 were detected with an indirect immunofluorescence assay. The intensity of the fluorescent signal correlated well with the titers of antibodies (P<0.001). The relations among the presence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, sociodemographic and behavioral factors, type of cancer, and the presence or absence of coexistent HIV-1 infection were examined with the use of unconditional logistic-regression models. Results Among the 3293 subjects with cancers other than Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 32 percent, which did not differ significantly from the standardized seroprevalence among black blood donors. Among these 3293 patients, the prevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 increased with increasing age (P<0.001) and an increasing number of sexual partners (P=0.05) and decreased with increasing years of education (P=0.007); it was not strongly associated with HIV-1 infection. Anti–HHV-8 antibodies were more frequent among black than white blood donors (P<0.001). Among the 51 patients with Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 83 percent, significantly higher than the prevalence among those without Kaposi's sarcoma (P<0.001). For 16 other specific types of cancer, including multiple myeloma (108 cases) and prostate cancer (202 cases), the variation in the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was not remarkable. At a given intensity of fluorescence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, Kaposi's sarcoma was more frequent among HIV-1–positive patients than among those who were HIV-1–negative (P<0.001). Conclusions Among black patients with cancer in South Africa, the seroprevalence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies is high and is specifically associated with Kaposi's sarcoma, particularly at high titers.

Association of heparan sulfate proteoglycans SDC1 and SDC4 polymorphisms with breast cancer in an Australian Caucasian population

Breast cancer is a common disease in both developing and developed countries with early identification and treatment improving prognosis and survival. Heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) are key components of the extracellular matrix (ECM) that mediate cell adhesion, motility, proliferation, invasion and cell signalling. Members of the syndecan family of HSPGs have been identified to be involved in breast cancer progression through their varied interactions with a number of growth factors, ligands and receptors. Specifically, high expression levels of syndecan-1 (SDC1) have been demonstrated in more invasive breast tumours while elevated syndecan-4 (SDC4) levels have been identified to correspond with improved prognosis. With genetic changes in the syndecans and their association with breast cancers plausible, we examined two single nucleotide polymorphisms in SDC1 (rs1131351) and SDC4 (rs67068737) within an Australian Caucasian breast cancer case/control population. No association was found with SDC4 and breast cancer in our population. However, a significant association between SDC1 and breast cancer was identified in both our case/control population and in a replication cohort. When both populations were combined for analysis, this association became more significant (genotype, p = 0.0003; allele, p = 0.0001). This data suggests an increased risk of developing breast cancer associated with the presence of the C allele of the SDC1 rs1131351 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and may provide a marker toward early breast cancer detection.

Weight and weight change following breast cancer : evidence from a prospective, population-based, breast cancer cohort study

Background: While weight gain following breast cancer is considered common, results supporting these findings are dated. This work describes changes in body weight following breast cancer over 72 months, compares weight with normative data and explores whether weight changes over time are associated with personal, diagnostic, treatment or behavioral characteristics. Methods: A population-based sample of 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage invasive breast cancer was assessed prospectively at six, 12, 18 and 72 months post-surgery. Weight was clinically measured and linear mixed models were used to explore associations between weight and participant characteristics (collected via self-administered questionnaire). Those with BMI changes of one or more units were considered to have experienced clinically significant changes in weight. Results: More than half (57%) of participants were overweight or obese at 6 months post-surgery, and by 72 months post-surgery 68% of women were overweight or obese. Among those who gained more weight than age-matched norms, clinically significant weight gain between 6 and 18 months and 6 and 72 months post-surgery was observed in 24% and 39% of participants, respectively (median [range] weight gain: 3.9kg [2.0-11.3kg] and 5.2kg [0.6-28.7], respectively). Clinically-significant weight losses were observed in up to 24% of the sample (median [range] weight loss between 6 and 72 months post-surgery: -6.4kg [-1.9--24.6kg]). More extensive lymph node removal, being treated on the non-dominant side, receiving radiation therapy and lower physical activity levels at 6 months was associated with higher body weights post-breast cancer (group differences >3kg; all p<0.05). Conclusions: While average weight gain among breast cancer survivors in the long-term is small, subgroups of women experience greater gains linked with adverse health and above that experienced by age-matched counterparts. Weight change post-breast cancer is a contemporary public health issue and the integration of healthy weight education and support into standard breast cancer care has potential to significantly improve the length and quality of cancer survivorship.