Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

The development of a simple multi-nodal tool to identify performance issues in existing commercial buildings

Australia’s building stock includes many older commercial buildings with numerous factors that impact energy performance and indoor environment quality. The built environment industry has generally focused heavily on improving physical building design elements for greater energy efficiency (such as retrofits and environmental upgrades), however there are noticeable ‘upper limits’ to performance improvements in these areas. To achieve a stepchange improvement in building performance, the authors propose that additional components need to be addressed in a whole of building approach, including the way building design elements are managed and the level of stakeholder engagement between owners, tenants and building managers. This paper focuses on the opportunities provided by this whole-of-building approach, presenting the findings of a research project undertaken through the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc) in Australia. Researchers worked with a number of industry partners over two years to investigate issues facing stakeholders at base building and tenancy levels, and the barriers to improving building performance. Through a mixed-method, industry-led research approach, five ‘nodes’ were identified in whole-of-building performance evaluation, each with interlinking and overlapping complexities that can influence performance. The nodes cover building management, occupant experience, indoor environment quality, agreements and culture, and design elements. This paper outlines the development and testing of these nodes and their interactions, and the resultant multi-nodal tool, called the ‘Performance Nexus’ tool. The tool is intended to be of most benefit in evaluating opportunities for performance improvement in the vast number of existing low-performing building stock.

Characterization of ENU-induced mutations in red blood cell structural proteins

Murine models with modified gene function as a result of N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) mutagenesis have been used to study phenotypes resulting from genetic change. This study investigated genetic factors associated with red blood cell (RBC) physiology and structural integrity that may impact on blood component storage and transfusion outcome. Forward and reverse genetic approaches were employed with pedigrees of ENU-treated mice using a homozygous recessive breeding strategy. In a “forward genetic” approach, pedigree selection was based upon identification of an altered phenotype followed by exome sequencing to identify a causative mutation. In a second strategy, a “reverse genetic” approach based on selection of pedigrees with mutations in genes of interest was utilised and, following breeding to homozygosity, phenotype assessed. Thirty-three pedigrees were screened by the forward genetic approach. One pedigree demonstrated reticulocytosis, microcytic anaemia and thrombocytosis. Exome sequencing revealed a novel single nucleotide variation (SNV) in Ank1 encoding the RBC structural protein ankyrin-1 and the pedigree was designated Ank1EX34. The reticulocytosis and microcytic anaemia observed in the Ank1EX34 pedigree were similar to clinical features of hereditary spherocytosis in humans. For the reverse genetic approach three pedigrees with different point mutations in Spnb1 encoding RBC protein spectrin-1β, and one pedigree with a mutation in Epb4.1, encoding band 4.1 were selected for study. When bred to homozygosity two of the spectrin-1β pedigrees (a, b) demonstrated increased RBC count, haemoglobin (Hb) and haematocrit (HCT). The third Spnb1 mutation (spectrin-1β c) and mutation in Epb4.1 (band 4.1) did not significantly affect the haematological phenotype, despite these two mutations having a PolyPhen score predicting the mutation may be damaging. Exome sequencing allows rapid identification of causative mutations and development of databases of mutations predicted to be disruptive. These tools require further refinement but provide new approaches to the study of genetically defined changes that may impact on blood component storage and transfusion outcome.

Random Gabor based templates for facial expression recognition in images with facial occlusion

Robust facial expression recognition (FER) under occluded face conditions is challenging. It requires robust algorithms of feature extraction and investigations into the effects of different types of occlusion on the recognition performance to gain insight. Previous FER studies in this area have been limited. They have spanned recovery strategies for loss of local texture information and testing limited to only a few types of occlusion and predominantly a matched train-test strategy. This paper proposes a robust approach that employs a Monte Carlo algorithm to extract a set of Gabor based part-face templates from gallery images and converts these templates into template match distance features. The resulting feature vectors are robust to occlusion because occluded parts are covered by some but not all of the random templates. The method is evaluated using facial images with occluded regions around the eyes and the mouth, randomly placed occlusion patches of different sizes, and near-realistic occlusion of eyes with clear and solid glasses. Both matched and mis-matched train and test strategies are adopted to analyze the effects of such occlusion. Overall recognition performance and the performance for each facial expression are investigated. Experimental results on the Cohn-Kanade and JAFFE databases demonstrate the high robustness and fast processing speed of our approach, and provide useful insight into the effects of occlusion on FER. The results on the parameter sensitivity demonstrate a certain level of robustness of the approach to changes in the orientation and scale of Gabor filters, the size of templates, and occlusions ratios. Performance comparisons with previous approaches show that the proposed method is more robust to occlusion with lower reductions in accuracy from occlusion of eyes or mouth.

Designing intelligent litigation support tools : The IKBALS perspective

In the legal domain, it is rare to find solutions to problems by simply applying algorithms or invoking deductive rules in some knowledge‐based program. Instead, expert practitioners often supplement domain‐specific knowledge with field experience. This type of expertise is often applied in the form of an analogy. This research proposes to combine both reasoning with precedents and reasoning with statutes and regulations in a way that will enhance the statutory interpretation task. This is being attempted through the integration of database and expert system technologies. Case‐based reasoning is being used to model legal precedents while rule‐based reasoning modules are being used to model the legislation and other types of causal knowledge. It is hoped to generalise these findings and to develop a formal methodology for integrating case‐based databases with rule‐based expert systems in the legal domain.

Interpretation of association rules with multi-tier granule mining

This study was a step forward to improve the performance for discovering useful knowledge – especially, association rules in this study – in databases. The thesis proposed an approach to use granules instead of patterns to represent knowledge implicitly contained in relational databases; and multi-tier structure to interpret association rules in terms of granules. Association mappings were proposed for the construction of multi-tier structure. With these tools, association rules can be quickly assessed and meaningless association rules can be justified according to the association mappings. The experimental results indicated that the proposed approach is promising.

A systematic review of community-based interventions for emerging zoonotic diseases in Southeast Asia

Background Southeast Asia has been at the epicentre of recent epidemics of emerging and re-emerging zoonotic diseases. Community-based surveillance and control interventions have been heavily promoted but the most effective interventions have not been identified. Objectives This review evaluated evidence for the effectiveness of community-based surveillance interventions at monitoring and identifying emerging infectious disease; the effectiveness of community-based control interventions at reducing rates of emerging infectious disease; and contextual factors that influence intervention effectiveness. Inclusion criteria Participants Communities in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. Types of intervention(s) Non-pharmaceutical, non-vaccine, and community-based surveillance or prevention and control interventions targeting rabies, Nipah virus , dengue, SARS or avian influenza. Types of outcomes Primary outcomes: measures: of infection or disease; secondary outcomes: measures of intervention function. Types of studies Original quantitative studies published in English. Search strategy Databases searched (1980 to 2011): PubMed, CINAHL, ProQuest, EBSCOhost, Web of Science, Science Direct, Cochrane database of systematic reviews, WHOLIS, British Development Library, LILACS, World Bank (East Asia), Asian Development Bank. Methodological quality Two independent reviewers critically appraised studies using standard Joanna Briggs Institute instruments. Disagreements were resolved through discussion. Data extraction A customised tool was used to extract quantitative data on intervention(s), populations, study methods, and primary and secondary outcomes; and qualitative contextual information or narrative evidence about interventions. Data synthesis Data was synthesised in a narrative summary with the aid of tables. Meta-analysis was used to statistically pool quantitative results. Results Fifty-seven studies were included. Vector control interventions using copepods, environmental cleanup and education are effective and sustainable at reducing dengue in rural and urban communities, whilst insecticide spraying is effective in urban outbreak situations. Community-based surveillance interventions can effectively identify avian influenza in backyard flocks, but have not been broadly applied. Outbreak control interventions for Nipah virus and SARS are effective but may not be suitable for ongoing control. Canine vaccination and education is more acceptable than culling, but still fails to reach coverage levels required to effectively control rabies. Contextual factors were identified that influence community engagement with, and ultimately effectiveness of, interventions. Conclusion Despite investment in community-based disease control and surveillance in Southeast Asia, published evidence evaluating interventions is limited in quantity and quality. Nonetheless this review identified a number of effective interventions, and several contextual factors influencing effectiveness. Identification of the best programs will require comparative evidence of effectiveness acceptability, cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

Effects of child care policy and environment on physical activity

Child care centers differ systematically with respect to the quality and quantity of physical activity they provide, suggesting that center-level policies and practices, as well as the center's physical environment, are important influences on children's physical activity behavior. Purpose To summarize and critically evaluate the extant peer-reviewed literature on the influence of child care policy and environment on physical activity in preschool-aged children. Methods A computer database search identified seven relevant studies that were categorized into three broad areas: cross-sectional studies investigating the impact of selected center-level policies and practices on moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), studies correlating specific attributes of the outdoor play environment with the level and intensity of MVPA, and studies in which a specific center-level policy or environmental attribute was experimentally manipulated and evaluated for changes in MVPA. Results Staff education and training, as well as staff behavior on the playground, seem to be salient influences on MVPA in preschoolers. Lower playground density (less children per square meter) and the presence of vegetation and open play areas also seem to be positive influences on MVPA. However, not all studies found these attributes to be significant. The availability and quality of portable play equipment, not the amount or type of fixed play equipment, significantly influenced MVPA levels. Conclusions Emerging evidence suggests that several policy and environmental factors contribute to the marked between-center variability in physical activity and sedentary behavior. Intervention studies targeting these factors are thus warranted.

Inpatient facial expression recognition with SMS alert

Facial expression recognition (FER) has been dramatically developed in recent years, thanks to the advancements in related fields, especially machine learning, image processing and human recognition. Accordingly, the impact and potential usage of automatic FER have been growing in a wide range of applications, including human-computer interaction, robot control and driver state surveillance. However, to date, robust recognition of facial expressions from images and videos is still a challenging task due to the difficulty in accurately extracting the useful emotional features. These features are often represented in different forms, such as static, dynamic, point-based geometric or region-based appearance. Facial movement features, which include feature position and shape changes, are generally caused by the movements of facial elements and muscles during the course of emotional expression. The facial elements, especially key elements, will constantly change their positions when subjects are expressing emotions. As a consequence, the same feature in different images usually has different positions. In some cases, the shape of the feature may also be distorted due to the subtle facial muscle movements. Therefore, for any feature representing a certain emotion, the geometric-based position and appearance-based shape normally changes from one image to another image in image databases, as well as in videos. This kind of movement features represents a rich pool of both static and dynamic characteristics of expressions, which playa critical role for FER. The vast majority of the past work on FER does not take the dynamics of facial expressions into account. Some efforts have been made on capturing and utilizing facial movement features, and almost all of them are static based. These efforts try to adopt either geometric features of the tracked facial points, or appearance difference between holistic facial regions in consequent frames or texture and motion changes in loca- facial regions. Although achieved promising results, these approaches often require accurate location and tracking of facial points, which remains problematic.

Interpretation of association rules in multi-tier structures

Dealing with the large amount of data resulting from association rule mining is a big challenge. The essential issue is how to provide efficient methods for summarizing and representing meaningful discovered knowledge from databases. This paper presents a new approach called multi-tier granule mining to improve the performance of association rule mining. Rather than using patterns, it uses granules to represent knowledge that is implicitly contained in relational databases. This approach also uses multi-tier structures and association mappings to interpret association rules in terms of granules. Consequently, association rules can be quickly assessed and meaningless association rules can be justified according to these association mappings. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approach is promising

Effects of physical activity intervention in youth : a review

Effects of physical activity interventions in youth: A review. International SportMed Journal. Vol.2 No.5 2001. The purpose of this paper is to review the peer-reviewed literature pertinent to physical activity interventions for children and adolescents. In order to provide a more quantitative conclusion regarding the effectiveness of these interventions, a meta-analytic approach was utilized in which effect sizes (the efficacy of each intervention or magnitude of the intervention effect was expressed as a standardized effect size, which represents the influence of the treatment or intervention on the dependent variable) from each study are pooled to provide a global estimate of effectiveness. A search of the relevant peer-reviewed literature was conducted using several computer-based databases, including MEDLINE, PYSCHLIT, SOCIAL SCIENCE INDEX, and SPORTS DISCUS. Manual searches were also made using the reference lists from recovered articles. Applying strict criteria for quality of design and assessment of physical activity, 10 studies were located, yielding a total of 44 effect sizes. The mean effect size was 0.47 (95% C.I. 0.28 – 0.66) suggesting that interventions have produced moderate increases in physical activity behavior. Effect sizes ranged from –0.61 to 2.5. Interventions focusing on increasing the amount of physical activity performed during regular physical education were more effective than those targeting overall levels of physical activity. Interventions were almost entirely school-based. Accordingly, the development and evaluation of community-based approaches for promoting physical activity among young people, especially older adolescents, remains an urgent priority for future research.

Contribution of fibroblast and mast cell (afferent) and tumor (efferent) IL-6 effects within the tumor microenvironment

Hyperactive inflammatory responses following cancer initiation have led to cancer being described as a 'wound that never heals'. These inflammatory responses elicit signals via NFκB leading to IL-6 production, and IL-6 in turn has been shown to induce epithelial to mesenchymal transition in breast cancer cells in vitro, implicating a role for this cytokine in cancer cell invasion. We previously have shown that conditioned medium derived from cancer-associated fibroblasts induced an Epithelial to Mesenchymal transition (EMT) in PMC42-LA breast cancer cells and we have now identify IL-6 as present in this medium. We further show that IL-6 is expressed approximately 100 fold higher in a cancer-associated fibroblast line compared to normal fibroblasts. Comparison of mouse-specific (stroma) and human-specific (tumor) IL-6 mRNA expression from MCF-7, MDA MB 468 and MDA MB 231 xenografts also indicated the stroma rather than tumor as a significantly higher source of IL-6 expression. Mast cells (MCs) feature in inflammatory cancer-associated stroma, and activated MCs secrete IL-6. We observed a higher MC index (average number of mast cells per xenograft section/average tumor size) in MDA MB 468 compared to MDA MB 231 xenografts, where all MC were observed to be active (degranulating). This higher MC index correlated with greater mouse-specific IL-6 expression in the MDA MB 468 xenografts, implicating MC as an important source of stromal IL-6. Furthermore, immunohistochemistry on these xenografts for pSTAT3, which lies downstream of the IL-6 receptor indicated frequent correlations between pSTAT3 and mast cell positive cells. Analysis of publically available databases for IL-6 expression in patient tissue revealed higher IL-6 in laser capture microdissected stroma compared to adjacent tissue epithelium from patients with inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) and invasive non-inflammatory breast cancer (non-IBC) and we show that IL-6 expression was significantly higher in Basal versus Luminal molecular/phenotypic groupings of breast cancer cell lines. Finally, we discuss how afferent and efferent IL-6 pathways may participate in a positive feedback cycle to dictate tumor progression.

Study Protocol - Alcohol Management Plans (AMPs) in remote indigenous communities in Queensland: their impacts on injury, violence, health and social indicators and their cost-effectiveness

Background In 2002/03 the Queensland Government responded to high rates of alcohol-related harm in discrete Indigenous communities by implementing alcohol management plans (AMPs), designed to include supply and harm reduction and treatment measures. Tighter alcohol supply and carriage restrictions followed in 2008 following indications of reductions in violence and injury. Despite the plans being in place for over a decade, no comprehensive independent review has assessed to what level the designed aims were achieved and what effect the plans have had on Indigenous community residents and service providers. This study will describe the long-term impacts on important health, economic and social outcomes of Queensland’s AMPs. Methods/Design The project has two main studies, 1) outcome evaluation using de-identified epidemiological data on injury, violence and other health and social indicators for across Queensland, including de-identified databases compiled from relevant routinely-available administrative data sets, and 2) a process evaluation to map the nature, timing and content of intervention components targeting alcohol. Process evaluation will also be used to assess the fidelity with which the designed intervention components have been implemented, their uptake and community responses to them and their perceived impacts on alcohol supply and consumption, injury, violence and community health. Interviews and focus groups with Indigenous residents and service providers will be used. The study will be conducted in all 24 of Queensland’s Indigenous communities affected by alcohol management plans. Discussion This evaluation will report on the impacts of the original aims for AMPs, what impact they have had on Indigenous residents and service providers. A central outcome will be the establishment of relevant databases describing the parameters of the changes seen. This will permit comprehensive and rigorous surveillance systems to be put in place and provided to communities empowering them with the best credible evidence to judge future policy and program requirements for themselves. The project will inform impending alcohol policy and program adjustments in Queensland and other Australian jurisdictions. The project has been approved by the James Cook University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number H4967 & H5241).

Conceptual framework for understanding the demand for emergency health services

Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

Wellness programs at firefighter and police workplaces : a systematic review

Objectives This systematic review summarizes the literature on the health effects of wellness programs at police and firefighter workplaces. The review also considers process outcomes and economic evaluations of such programs. Methods A systematic search of articles published from January 1, 2000 through September 1, 2012 in 13 databases was conducted. Data on 7 studies from 9 articles were extracted. An assessment of the methodological quality of the studies was conducted. Results Studies showed acceptable completion rates and high satisfaction with programs, but mixed results for changes in individual outcomes. Conclusion Empirical evidence for effective health and wellness programs in police and firefighter populations is scarce. Better evaluation and documentation of such programs is needed to advance this field of research.