The organisation : risk, resilience and governance

Tarrant argues that a solid risk management strategy is critical to building effective, transformational and adaptive organisations. Organisations are a fundamental part of our society and economic system whether they are private, public or not-for-profits. There are very few aspects of our society and economy that don’t rely wholly or in part on the performance of organisations. Disasters and crises are complex and very challenging environments for organisations. How can effective transformational and adaptive capacity become institutionalised and a core part of good governance of organisations? Effective risk management is a critical element in meeting organisational objectives in a turbulent and uncertain environment.

Diarrhoea risk factors in enterally tube fed critically ill patients : a retrospective audit

Objective: Diarrhoea in the enterally tube fed (ETF) intensive care unit (ICU) patient is a multifactorial problem. Diarrhoeal aetiologies in this patient cohort remain debatable; however, the consequences of diarrhoea have been well established and include electrolyte imbalance, dehydration, bacterial translocation, peri anal wound contamination and sleep deprivation. This study examined the incidence of diarrhoea and explored factors contributing to the development of diarrhoea in the ETF, critically ill, adult patient. ---------- Method: After institutional ethical review and approval, a single centre medical chart audit was undertaken to examine the incidence of diarrhoea in ETF, critically ill patients. Retrospective, non-probability sequential sampling was used of all emergency admission adult ICU patients who met the inclusion/exclusion criteria. ---------- Results: Fifty patients were audited. Faecal frequency, consistency and quantity were considered important criteria in defining ETF diarrhoea. The incidence of diarrhoea was 78%. Total patient diarrhoea days (r = 0.422; p = 0.02) and total diarrhoea frequency (r = 0.313; p = 0.027) increased when the patient was ETF for longer periods of time. Increased severity of illness, peripheral oxygen saturation (Sp02), glucose control, albumin and white cell count were found to be statistically significant factors for the development of diarrhoea. ---------- Conclusion: Diarrhoea in ETF critically ill patients is multi-factorial. The early identification of diarrhoea risk factors and the development of a diarrhoea risk management algorithm is recommended.

Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

V2V/V2I augmented maps : state-of-the-art and contribution to real-time crash risk assessment

A number of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are currently being released on the market, providing safety functions to the drivers such as collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control or enhanced night-vision. These systems however are inherently limited by their sensory range: they cannot gather information from outside this range, also called their “perceptive horizon”. Cooperative systems are a developing research avenue that aims at providing extended safety and comfort functionalities by introducing vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) wireless communications to the road actors. This paper presents the problematic of cooperative systems, their advantages and contributions to road safety and exposes some limitations related to market penetration, sensors accuracy and communications scalability. It explains the issues of how to implement extended perception, a central contribution of cooperative systems. The initial steps of an evaluation of data fusion architectures for extended perception are exposed.

The Heavy Vehicle Study : a case-control study investigating risk factors for crash in long distance heavy vehicle drivers in Australia

Background Heavy vehicle transportation continues to grow internationally; yet crash rates are high, and the risk of injury and death extends to all road users. The work environment for the heavy vehicle driver poses many challenges; conditions such as scheduling and payment are proposed risk factors for crash, yet the precise measure of these needs quantifying. Other risk factors such as sleep disorders including obstructive sleep apnoea have been shown to increase crash risk in motor vehicle drivers however the risk of heavy vehicle crash from this and related health conditions needs detailed investigation. Methods and Design The proposed case control study will recruit 1034 long distance heavy vehicle drivers: 517 who have crashed and 517 who have not. All participants will be interviewed at length, regarding their driving and crash history, typical workloads, scheduling and payment, trip history over several days, sleep patterns, health, and substance use. All participants will have administered a nasal flow monitor for the detection of obstructive sleep apnoea. Discussion Significant attention has been paid to the enforcement of legislation aiming to deter problems such as excess loading, speeding and substance use; however, there is inconclusive evidence as to the direction and strength of associations of many other postulated risk factors for heavy vehicle crashes. The influence of factors such as remuneration and scheduling on crash risk is unclear; so too the association between sleep apnoea and the risk of heavy vehicle driver crash. Contributory factors such as sleep quality and quantity, body mass and health status will be investigated. Quantifying the measure of effect of these factors on the heavy vehicle driver will inform policy development that aims toward safer driving practices and reduction in heavy vehicle crash; protecting the lives of many on the road network.

Driver distractions: Characteristics underlying drivers' risk perceptions

Driver distraction is a research area that continues to receive considerable research interest but the drivers’ perspective is less well documented. The current research focuses on how drivers perceive the risks associated with a range of driver distractions with the aim of identifying features that contribute to their risk perception judgements. Multidimensional scaling analysis was employed to better understand drivers’ risk perceptions for 15 in-vehicle and external distractions. Results identify both salient qualitative characteristics that underpin drivers’ risk perceptions, such as the probability of a crash, as well as identify other features inherent in the distractions that may also contribute to risk perceptions. The implications of the results are discussed for better understanding drivers’ perceptions of distractions and the potential for improving road safety messages related to distracted driving.

Acute exercise improves postprandial cardiovascular risk factors in overweight and obese individuals

Objectives The effects of 30 min of exercise on postprandial lipaemia in the overweight and obese are unknown as previous studies have only investigated bouts of at least 60 min in lean, healthy individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a single 30-min bout of resistance, aerobic or combined exercise at moderate-intensity would decrease postprandial lipaemia, glucose and insulin levels as well as increase resting energy expenditure and increase fat oxidation following a high fat meal consumed 14 h after the exercise bout, in overweight and obese individuals compared to no exercise. We also compared the effects of the different exercise modalities. Methods This study was a randomized cross-over design which examined the postprandial effects of 30 min of different types of exercise in the evening prior to a breakfast meal in overweight and obese men and women. Participants were randomized on four occasions, each one-week apart, to each condition; either no exercise, aerobic exercise, resistance exercise or a combination of aerobic exercise and resistance exercise. Results An acute bout of combination training did not have any significant effect on postprandial measurements compared to no exercise. However, aerobic exercise significantly reduced postprandial triglyceride levels by 8% compared to no exercise (p = 0.02) and resistance exercise decreased postprandial insulin levels by 30% compared to aerobic exercise (p = 0.01). Conclusion These results indicate that a single moderate-intensity 30 min bout of aerobic or resistance exercise improves risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease in overweight and obese individuals.

Prevalence and determinants of the health promotion and risk reduction practices of younger female survivors of breast cancer

This thesis describes a discrete component of a larger mixed-method (survey and interview) study that explored the health-promotion and risk-reduction practices of younger premenopausal survivors of ovarian, breast and haematological cancers. This thesis outlines my distinct contribution to the larger study, which was to: (1) Produce a literature review that thoroughly explored all longer-term breast cancer treatment outcomes, and which outlined the health risks to survivors associated with these; (2) Describe and analyse the health-promotion and risk-reduction behaviours of nine younger female survivors of breast cancer as articulated in the qualitative interview dataset; and (3) Test the explanatory power of the Precede-Proceed theoretical framework underpinning the study in relation to the qualitative data from the breast cancer cohort. The thesis reveals that breast cancer survivors experienced many adverse outcomes as a result of treatment. While they generally engaged in healthy lifestyle practices, a lack of knowledge about many recommended health behaviours emerged throughout the interviews. The participants also described significant internal and external pressures to behave in certain ways because of the social norms surrounding the disease. This thesis also reports that the Precede-Proceed model is a generally robust approach to data collection, analysis and interpretation in the context of breast cancer survivorship. It provided plausible explanations for much of the data in this study. However, profound sociological and psychological implications arose during the analysis that were not effectively captured or explained by the theories underpinning the model. A sociological filter—such as Turner’s explanation of the meaning of the body and embodiment in the social sphere (Turner, 2008)—and the psychological concerns teased out in Mishel’s (1990) Uncertainty in Illness Theory, provided a useful dimension to the findings generated through the Precede-Proceed model. The thesis concludes with several recommendations for future research, clinical practice and education in this context.

Mapping the territory of economic risk

It is widely contended that we live in a „world risk society‟, where risk plays a central and ubiquitous role in contemporary social life. A seminal contributor to this view is Ulrich Beck, who claims that our world is governed by dangers that cannot be calculated or insured against. For Beck, risk is an inherently unrestrained phenomenon, emerging from a core and pouring out from and under national borders, unaffected by state power. Beck‟s focus on risk's ubiquity and uncontrollability at an infra-global level means that there is a necessary evenness to the expanse of risk: a "universalization of hazards‟, which possess an inbuilt tendency towards globalisation. While sociological scholarship has examined the reach and impact of globalisation processes on the role and power of states, Beck‟s argument that economic risk is without territory and resistant to domestic policy has come under less appraisal. This is contestable: what are often described as global economic processes, on closer inspection, reveal degrees of territorial embeddedness. This not only suggests that "global‟ flows could sometimes be more appropriately explained as international, regional or even local processes, formed from and responsive to state strategies – but also demonstrates what can be missed if we overinflate the global. This paper briefly introduces two key principles of Beck's theory of risk society and positions them within a review of literature debating the novelty and degree of global economic integration and its impact on states pursuing domestic economic policies. In doing so, this paper highlights the value for future research to engage with questions such as "is economic risk really without territory‟ and "does risk produce convergence‟, not so much as a means of reducing Beck's thesis to a purely empirical analysis, but rather to avoid limiting our scope in understanding the complex relationship between risk and state.

The development and validation of two complementary measures of drivers' hazard perception ability

Hazard perception in driving involves a number of different processes. This paper reports the development of two measures designed to separate these processes. A Hazard Perception Test was developed to measure how quickly drivers could anticipate hazards overall, incorporating detection, trajectory prediction, and hazard classification judgements. A Hazard Change Detection Task was developed to measure how quickly drivers can detect a hazard in a static image regardless of whether they consider it hazardous or not. For the Hazard Perception Test, young novices were slower than mid-age experienced drivers, consistent with differences in crash risk, and test performance correlated with scores in pre-existing Hazard Perception Tests. For drivers aged 65 and over, scores on the Hazard Perception Test declined with age and correlated with both contrast sensitivity and a Useful Field of View measure. For the Hazard Change Detection Task, novices responded quicker than the experienced drivers, contrary to crash risk trends, and test performance did not correlate with measures of overall hazard perception. However for drivers aged 65 and over, test performance declined with age and correlated with both hazard perception and Useful Field of View. Overall we concluded that there was support for the validity of the Hazard Perception Test for all ages but the Hazard Change Detection Task might only be appropriate for use with older drivers.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin exposure through foods in a Dioxin hot spot—Bien Hoa City, Vietnam

This study used the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the human health risk of dioxin exposure through foods for local residents in two wards of Bien Hoa City, Vietnam. These wards are known hot-spots for dioxin and a range of stakeholders from central government to local levels were involved in this process. Publications on dioxin characteristics and toxicity were reviewed and dioxin concentrations in local soil, mud, foods, milk and blood samples were used as data for this risk assessment. A food frequency survey of 400 randomly selected households in these wards was conducted to provide data for exposure assessment. Results showed that local residents who had consumed locally cultivated foods, especially fresh water fish and bottom-feeding fish, free-ranging chicken, duck, and beef were at a very high risk, with their daily dioxin intake far exceeding the tolerable daily intake recommended by the WHO. Based on the results of this assessment, a multifaceted risk management program was developed and has been recognized as the first public health program ever to have been implemented in Vietnam to reduce the risks of dioxin exposure at dioxin hot-spots.

Uncertainties that matter : risk, response-ability, ethics and the moment of exchange in Live Art

This article examines the moment of exchange between artist, audience and culture in Live Art. Drawing on historical and contemporary examples, including examples from the Exist in 08 Live Art Event in Brisbane, Australia, in October 2008, it argues that Live Art - be it body art, activist art, site-specific performance, or other sorts of performative intervention in the public sphere - is characterised by a common set of claims about activating audiences, asking them to reflect on cultural norms challenged in the work. Live Art presents risky actions, in a context that blurs the boundaries between art and reality, to position audients as ‘witnesses’ who are personally implicated in, and responsible for, the actions unfolding before them. This article problematises assumptions about the way the uncertainties embedded in the Live Art encounter contribute to its deconstructive agenda. It uses the ethical theory of Emmanuel Levinas, Hans-Thies Lehmann and Dwight Conquergood to examine the mechanics of reductive, culturally-recuperative readings that can limit the efficacy of the Live Art encounter. It argues that, though ‘witnessing’ in Live Art depends on a relation to the real - real people, taking real risks, in real places - if it fails to foreground theatrical frame it is difficult for audients to develop the dual consciousness of the content, and their complicity in that content, that is the starting point for reflexivity, and response-ability, in the ethical encounter.

Medication warnings about driving : risk perceptions among French and Australian Communities

Increased crash risk is associated with sedative medications and researchers and health-professionals have called for improvements to medication warnings about driving. The tiered warning system in France since 2005 indicates risk level, uses a color-coded pictogram, and advises the user to seek the advice of a doctor before driving. In Queensland, Australia, the mandatory warning on medications that may cause drowsiness advises the user not to drive or operate machinery if they self-assess that they are affected, and calls attention to possible increased impairment when combined with alcohol. Objectives The reported aims of the study were to establish and compare risk perceptions associated with the Queensland and French warnings among medication users. It was conducted to complement the work of DRUID in reviewing the effectiveness of existing campaigns and practice guidelines. Methods Medication users in France and Queensland were surveyed using warnings about driving from both contexts to compare risk perceptions associated with each label. Both samples were assessed for perceptions of the warning that carried the strongest message of risk. The Queensland study also included perceptions of the likelihood of crash and level of impairment associated with the warning. Results Findings from the French study (N = 75) indicate that when all labels were compared, the majority of respondents perceived the French Level-3 label as the strongest warning about risk concerning driving. Respondents in Queensland had significantly stronger perceptions of potential impairment to driving ability, z = -13.26, p <.000 (n = 325), and potential chance of having a crash, z = -11.87, p < .000 (n = 322), after taking a medication that displayed the strongest French warning, compared with the strongest Queensland warning. Conclusions Evidence suggests that warnings about driving displayed on medications can influence risk perceptions associated with use of medication. Further analyses will determine whether risk perceptions influence compliance with the warnings.

Young drivers’ optimism bias for accident risk and driving skill : accountability and insight experience manipulations

This study aimed to determine whether two brief, low cost interventions would reduce young drivers’ optimism bias for their driving skills and accident risk perceptions. This tendency for such drivers to perceive themselves as more skilful and less prone to driving accidents than their peers may lead to less engagement in precautionary driving behaviours and a greater engagement in more dangerous driving behaviour. 243 young drivers (aged 17 - 25 years) were randomly allocated to one of three groups: accountability, insight or control. All participants provided both overall and specific situation ratings of their driving skills and accident risk relative to a typical young driver. Prior to completing the questionnaire, those in the accountability condition were first advised that their driving skills and accident risk would be later assessed via a driving simulator. Those in the insight condition first underwent a difficult computer-based hazard perception task designed to provide participants with insight into their potential limitations when responding to hazards in difficult and unpredictable driving situations. Participants in the control condition completed only the questionnaire. Results showed that the accountability manipulation was effective in reducing optimism bias in terms of participants’ comparative ratings of their accident risk in specific situations, though only for less experienced drivers. In contrast, among more experienced males, participants in the insight condition showed greater optimism bias for overall accident risk than their counterparts in the accountability or control groups. There were no effects of the manipulations on drivers’ skills ratings. The differential effects of the two types of manipulations on optimism bias relating to one’s accident risk in different subgroups of the young driver sample highlight the importance of targeting interventions for different levels of experience. Accountability interventions may be beneficial for less experienced young drivers but the results suggest exercising caution with the use of insight type interventions, particularly hazard perception style tasks, for more experienced young drivers typically still in the provisional stage of graduated licensing systems.

Asset health prediction using condition indicators and operating environment indicators : a case study

Prognostics and asset life prediction is one of research potentials in engineering asset health management. We previously developed the Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) to effectively and explicitly predict asset life using three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators. We have formerly studied the application of both the semi-parametric EHM and non-parametric EHM to the survival probability estimation in the reliability field. The survival time in these models is dependent not only upon the age of the asset monitored, but also upon the condition and operating environment information obtained. This paper is a further study of the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs to the hazard and residual life prediction of a set of resistance elements. The resistance elements were used as corrosion sensors for measuring the atmospheric corrosion rate in a laboratory experiment. In this paper, the estimated hazard of the resistance element using the semi-parametric EHM and the non-parametric EHM is compared to the traditional Weibull model and the Aalen Linear Regression Model (ALRM), respectively. Due to assuming a Weibull distribution in the baseline hazard of the semi-parametric EHM, the estimated hazard using this model is compared to the traditional Weibull model. The estimated hazard using the non-parametric EHM is compared to ALRM which is a well-known non-parametric covariate-based hazard model. At last, the predicted residual life of the resistance element using both EHMs is compared to the actual life data.