Interrogating statistical models of music perception

We have developed a new experimental method for interrogating statistical theories of music perception by implementing these theories as generative music algorithms. We call this method Generation in Context. This method differs from most experimental techniques in music perception in that it incorporates aesthetic judgments. Generation In Context is designed to measure percepts for which the musical context is suspected to play an important role. In particular the method is suitable for the study of perceptual parameters which are temporally dynamic. We outline a use of this approach to investigate David Temperley’s (2007) probabilistic melody model, and provide some provisional insights as to what is revealed about the model. We suggest that Temperley’s model could be improved by dynamically modulating the probability distributions according to the changing musical context.

Bayesian models for longitudinal data

Longitudinal data, where data are repeatedly observed or measured on a temporal basis of time or age provides the foundation of the analysis of processes which evolve over time, and these can be referred to as growth or trajectory models. One of the traditional ways of looking at growth models is to employ either linear or polynomial functional forms to model trajectory shape, and account for variation around an overall mean trend with the inclusion of random eects or individual variation on the functional shape parameters. The identification of distinct subgroups or sub-classes (latent classes) within these trajectory models which are not based on some pre-existing individual classification provides an important methodology with substantive implications. The identification of subgroups or classes has a wide application in the medical arena where responder/non-responder identification based on distinctly diering trajectories delivers further information for clinical processes. This thesis develops Bayesian statistical models and techniques for the identification of subgroups in the analysis of longitudinal data where the number of time intervals is limited. These models are then applied to a single case study which investigates the neuropsychological cognition for early stage breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemotherapy treatment from the Cognition in Breast Cancer Study undertaken by the Wesley Research Institute of Brisbane, Queensland. Alternative formulations to the linear or polynomial approach are taken which use piecewise linear models with a single turning point, change-point or knot at a known time point and latent basis models for the non-linear trajectories found for the verbal memory domain of cognitive function before and after chemotherapy treatment. Hierarchical Bayesian random eects models are used as a starting point for the latent class modelling process and are extended with the incorporation of covariates in the trajectory profiles and as predictors of class membership. The Bayesian latent basis models enable the degree of recovery post-chemotherapy to be estimated for short and long-term followup occasions, and the distinct class trajectories assist in the identification of breast cancer patients who maybe at risk of long-term verbal memory impairment.

Novel car carrier design : prevention of falls from heights

This article reports the details of a research on novel design in the field of semitrailer sector and discuss design by hazard prevention techniques. The novel design made addresses occupational health and safety (OHS)concerns of fall from heights. The research includes a detailed survey of national data sources to examine the fatalities caused due to fall from heights in car carriers. The study investigates OHS recommendations in Australia for semitrailer sector. Often injuries are caused due to drivers working above the 1.5 meter height for loading, unloading of the cars, moving the decks up, down, strapping the cars, and slipperly. The new design is developed using latest computer aided design and engineeing (CAD, CAE), product data management (PDM), virtual design process (VDP). The new car carrier design excels in reducing the risks of injuries to drivers and new bench mark for OHS standards. The new design has all the decks operated with hydraulics and uses unique ratchet lock mechanism (fool proof design) and loading happens at a safe working height (below 1.5 meter). All the cars are strapped on the safe working height, and then car desks operated hydraulically to transfer them to the required position. This also includes the car on the prime mover, which shuttles across from one deck to other using hydraulic and rack-pinion mechanisms. The novel design car carrier solves the problem of falls from height: next step would be to transfer this technology across other similar effected sectors.

Examining psychosocial influences on speeding in Australian and Chinese contexts : a social learning approach

Speeding remains a significant contributing factor to road trauma internationally, despite increasingly sophisticated speed management strategies being adopted around the world. Increases in travel speed are associated with increases in crash risk and crash severity. As speed choice is a voluntary behaviour, driver perceptions are important to our understanding of speeding and, importantly, to designing effective behavioural countermeasures. The four studies conducted in this program of research represent a comprehensive approach to examining psychosocial influences on driving speeds in two countries that are at very different levels of road safety development: Australia and China. Akers’ social learning theory (SLT) was selected as the theoretical framework underpinning this research and guided the development of key research hypotheses. This theory was chosen because of its ability to encompass psychological, sociological, and criminological perspectives in understanding behaviour, each of which has relevance to speeding. A mixed-method design was used to explore the personal, social, and legal influences on speeding among car drivers in Queensland (Australia) and Beijing (China). Study 1 was a qualitative exploration, via focus group interviews, of speeding among 67 car drivers recruited from south east Queensland. Participants were assigned to groups based on their age and gender, and additionally, according to whether they self-identified as speeding excessively or rarely. This study aimed to elicit information about how drivers conceptualise speeding as well as the social and legal influences on driving speeds. The findings revealed a wide variety of reasons and circumstances that appear to be used as personal justifications for exceeding speed limits. Driver perceptions of speeding as personally and socially acceptable, as well as safe and necessary were common. Perceptions of an absence of danger associated with faster driving speeds were evident, particularly with respect to driving alone. An important distinction between the speed-based groups related to the attention given to the driving task. Rare speeders expressed strong beliefs about the need to be mindful of safety (self and others) while excessive speeders referred to the driving task as automatic, an absent-minded endeavour, and to speeding as a necessity in order to remain alert and reduce boredom. For many drivers in this study, compliance with speed limits was expressed as discretionary rather than mandatory. Social factors, such as peer and parental influence were widely discussed in Study 1 and perceptions of widespread community acceptance of speeding were noted. In some instances, the perception that ‘everybody speeds’ appeared to act as one rationale for the need to raise speed limits. Self-presentation, or wanting to project a positive image of self was noted, particularly with respect to concealing speeding infringements from others to protect one’s image as a trustworthy and safe driver. The influence of legal factors was also evident. Legal sanctions do not appear to influence all drivers to the same extent. For instance, fear of apprehension appeared to play a role in reducing speeding for many, although previous experiences of detection and legal sanctions seemed to have had limited influence on reducing speeding among some drivers. Disregard for sanctions (e.g., driving while suspended), fraudulent demerit point use, and other strategies to avoid detection and punishment were widely and openly discussed. In Study 2, 833 drivers were recruited from roadside service stations in metropolitan and regional locations in Queensland. A quantitative research strategy assessed the relative contribution of personal, social, and legal factors to recent and future self-reported speeding (i.e., frequency of speeding and intentions to speed in the future). Multivariate analyses examining a range of factors drawn from SLT revealed that factors including self-identity (i.e., identifying as someone who speeds), favourable definitions (attitudes) towards speeding, personal experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, and perceptions of family and friends as accepting of speeding were all significantly associated with greater self-reported speeding. Study 3 was an exploratory, qualitative investigation of psychosocial factors associated with speeding among 35 Chinese drivers who were recruited from the membership of a motoring organisation and a university in Beijing. Six focus groups were conducted to explore similar issues to those examined in Study 1. The findings of Study 3 revealed many similarities with respect to the themes that arose in Australia. For example, there were similarities regarding personal justifications for speeding, such as the perception that posted limits are unreasonably low, the belief that individual drivers are able to determine safe travel speeds according to personal comfort with driving fast, and the belief that drivers possess adequate skills to control a vehicle at high speed. Strategies to avoid detection and punishment were also noted, though they appeared more widespread in China and also appeared, in some cases, to involve the use of a third party, a topic that was not reported by Australian drivers. Additionally, higher perceived enforcement tolerance thresholds were discussed by Chinese participants. Overall, the findings indicated perceptions of a high degree of community acceptance of speeding and a perceived lack of risk associated with speeds that were well above posted speed limits. Study 4 extended the exploratory research phase in China with a quantitative investigation involving 299 car drivers recruited from car washes in Beijing. Results revealed a relatively inexperienced sample with less than 5 years driving experience, on average. One third of participants perceived that the certainty of penalties when apprehended was low and a similar proportion of Chinese participants reported having previously avoided legal penalties when apprehended for speeding. Approximately half of the sample reported that legal penalties for speeding were ‘minimally to not at all’ severe. Multivariate analyses revealed that past experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, as well as favourable attitudes towards speeding, and perceptions of strong community acceptance of speeding were most strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in the Chinese sample. Overall, the results of this research make several important theoretical contributions to the road safety literature. Akers’ social learning theory was found to be robust across cultural contexts with respect to speeding; similar amounts of variance were explained in self-reported speeding in the quantitative studies conducted in Australia and China. Historically, SLT was devised as a theory of deviance and posits that deviance and conformity are learned in the same way, with the balance of influence stemming from the ways in which behaviour is rewarded and punished (Akers, 1998). This perspective suggests that those who speed and those who do not are influenced by the same mechanisms. The inclusion of drivers from both ends of the ‘speeding spectrum’ in Study 1 provided an opportunity to examine the wider utility of SLT across the full range of the behaviour. One may question the use of a theory of deviance to investigate speeding, a behaviour that could, arguably, be described as socially acceptable and prevalent. However, SLT seemed particularly relevant to investigating speeding because of its inclusion of association, imitation, and reinforcement variables which reflect the breadth of factors already found to be potentially influential on driving speeds. In addition, driving is a learned behaviour requiring observation, guidance, and practice. Thus, the reinforcement and imitation concepts are particularly relevant to this behaviour. Finally, current speed management practices are largely enforcement-based and rely on the principles of behavioural reinforcement captured within the reinforcement component of SLT. Thus, the application of SLT to a behaviour such as speeding offers promise in advancing our understanding of the factors that influence speeding, as well as extending our knowledge of the application of SLT. Moreover, SLT could act as a valuable theoretical framework with which to examine other illegal driving behaviours that may not necessarily be seen as deviant by the community (e.g., mobile phone use while driving). This research also made unique contributions to advancing our understanding of the key components and the overall structure of Akers’ social learning theory. The broader SLT literature is lacking in terms of a thorough structural understanding of the component parts of the theory. For instance, debate exists regarding the relevance of, and necessity for including broader social influences in the model as captured by differential association. In the current research, two alternative SLT models were specified and tested in order to better understand the nature and extent of the influence of differential association on behaviour. Importantly, the results indicated that differential association was able to make a unique contribution to explaining self-reported speeding, thereby negating the call to exclude it from the model. The results also demonstrated that imitation was a discrete theoretical concept that should also be retained in the model. The results suggest a need to further explore and specify mechanisms of social influence in the SLT model. In addition, a novel approach was used to operationalise SLT variables by including concepts drawn from contemporary social psychological and deterrence-based research to enhance and extend the way that SLT variables have traditionally been examined. Differential reinforcement was conceptualised according to behavioural reinforcement principles (i.e., positive and negative reinforcement and punishment) and incorporated concepts of affective beliefs, anticipated regret, and deterrence-related concepts. Although implicit in descriptions of SLT, little research has, to date, made use of the broad range of reinforcement principles to understand the factors that encourage or inhibit behaviour. This approach has particular significance to road user behaviours in general because of the deterrence-based nature of many road safety countermeasures. The concept of self-identity was also included in the model and was found to be consistent with the definitions component of SLT. A final theoretical contribution was the specification and testing of a full measurement model prior to model testing using structural equation modelling. This process is recommended in order to reduce measurement error by providing an examination of the psychometric properties of the data prior to full model testing. Despite calls for such work for a number of decades, the current work appears to be the only example of a full measurement model of SLT. There were also a number of important practical implications that emerged from this program of research. Firstly, perceptions regarding speed enforcement tolerance thresholds were highlighted as a salient influence on driving speeds in both countries. The issue of enforcement tolerance levels generated considerable discussion among drivers in both countries, with Australian drivers reporting lower perceived tolerance levels than Chinese drivers. It was clear that many drivers used the concept of an enforcement tolerance in determining their driving speed, primarily with the desire to drive faster than the posted speed limit, yet remaining within a speed range that would preclude apprehension by police. The quantitative results from Studies 2 and 4 added support to these qualitative findings. Together, the findings supported previous research and suggested that a travel speed may not be seen as illegal until that speed reaches a level over the prescribed enforcement tolerance threshold. In other words, the enforcement tolerance appears to act as a ‘de facto’ speed limit, replacing the posted limit in the minds of some drivers. The findings from the two studies conducted in China (Studies 2 and 4) further highlighted the link between perceived enforcement tolerances and a ‘de facto’ speed limit. Drivers openly discussed driving at speeds that were well above posted speed limits and some participants noted their preference for driving at speeds close to ‘50% above’ the posted limit. This preference appeared to be shaped by the perception that the same penalty would be imposed if apprehended, irrespective of what speed they travelling (at least up to 50% above the limit). Further research is required to determine whether the perceptions of Chinese drivers are mainly influenced by the Law of the People’s Republic of China or by operational practices. Together, the findings from both studies in China indicate that there may be scope to refine enforcement tolerance levels, as has happened in other jurisdictions internationally over time, in order to reduce speeding. Any attempts to do so would likely be assisted by the provision of information about the legitimacy and purpose of speed limits as well as risk factors associated with speeding because these issues were raised by Chinese participants in the qualitative research phase. Another important practical implication of this research for speed management in China is the way in which penalties are determined. Chinese drivers described perceptions of unfairness and a lack of transparency in the enforcement system because they were unsure of the penalty that they would receive if apprehended. Steps to enhance the perceived certainty and consistency of the system to promote a more equitable approach to detection and punishment would appear to be welcomed by the general driving public and would be more consistent with the intended theoretical (deterrence) basis that underpins the current speed enforcement approach. The use of mandatory, fixed penalties may assist in this regard. In many countries, speeding attracts penalties that are dependent on the severity of the offence. In China, there may be safety benefits gained from the introduction of a similar graduated scale of speeding penalties and fixed penalties might also help to address the issue of uncertainty about penalties and related perceptions of unfairness. Such advancements would be in keeping with the principles of best practice for speed management as identified by the World Health Organisation. Another practical implication relating to legal penalties, and applicable to both cultural contexts, relates to the issues of detection and punishment avoidance. These two concepts appeared to strongly influence speeding in the current samples. In Australia, detection avoidance strategies reported by participants generally involved activities that are not illegal (e.g., site learning and remaining watchful for police vehicles). The results from China were similar, although a greater range of strategies were reported. The most common strategy reported in both countries for avoiding detection when speeding was site learning, or familiarisation with speed camera locations. However, a range of illegal practices were also described by Chinese drivers (e.g., tampering with or removing vehicle registration plates so as to render the vehicle unidentifiable on camera and use of in-vehicle radar detectors). With regard to avoiding punishment when apprehended, a range of strategies were reported by drivers from both countries, although a greater range of strategies were reported by Chinese drivers. As the results of the current research indicated that detection avoidance was strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in both samples, efforts to reduce avoidance opportunities are strongly recommended. The practice of randomly scheduling speed camera locations, as is current practice in Queensland, offers one way to minimise site learning. The findings of this research indicated that this practice should continue. However, they also indicated that additional strategies are needed to reduce opportunities to evade detection. The use of point-to-point speed detection (also known as sectio

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Basin analysis and economic geology of the Northern Mount Isa Basin

The Mount Isa Basin is a new concept used to describe the area of Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic rocks south of the Murphy Inlier and inappropriately described presently as the Mount Isa Inlier. The new basin concept presented in this thesis allows for the characterisation of basin-wide structural deformation, correlation of mineralisation with particular lithostratigraphic and seismic stratigraphic packages, and the recognition of areas with petroleum exploration potential. The northern depositional margin of the Mount Isa Basin is the metamorphic, intrusive and volcanic complex here referred to as the Murphy Inlier (not the "Murphy Tectonic Ridge"). The eastern, southern and western boundaries of the basin are obscured by younger basins (Carpentaria, Eromanga and Georgina Basins). The Murphy Inlier rocks comprise the seismic basement to the Mount Isa Basin sequence. Evidence for the continuity of the Mount Isa Basin with the McArthur Basin to the northwest and the Willyama Block (Basin) at Broken Hill to the south is presented. These areas combined with several other areas of similar age are believed to have comprised the Carpentarian Superbasin (new term). The application of seismic exploration within Authority to Prospect (ATP) 423P at the northern margin of the basin was critical to the recognition and definition of the Mount Isa Basin. The Mount Isa Basin is structurally analogous to the Palaeozoic Arkoma Basin of Illinois and Arkansas in southern USA but, as with all basins it contains unique characteristics, a function of its individual development history. The Mount Isa Basin evolved in a manner similar to many well described, Phanerozoic plate tectonic driven basins. A full Wilson Cycle is recognised and a plate tectonic model proposed. The northern Mount Isa Basin is defined as the Proterozoic basin area northwest of the Mount Gordon Fault. Deposition in the northern Mount Isa Basin began with a rift sequence of volcaniclastic sediments followed by a passive margin drift phase comprising mostly carbonate rocks. Following the rift and drift phases, major north-south compression produced east-west thrusting in the south of the basin inverting the older sequences. This compression produced an asymmetric epi- or intra-cratonic clastic dominated peripheral foreland basin provenanced in the south and thinning markedly to a stable platform area (the Murphy Inlier) in the north. The fmal major deformation comprised east-west compression producing north-south aligned faults that are particularly prominent at Mount Isa. Potential field studies of the northern Mount Isa Basin, principally using magnetic data (and to a lesser extent gravity data, satellite images and aerial photographs) exhibit remarkable correlation with the reflection seismic data. The potential field data contributed significantly to the unravelling of the northern Mount Isa Basin architecture and deformation. Structurally, the Mount Isa Basin consists of three distinct regions. From the north to the south they are the Bowthorn Block, the Riversleigh Fold Zone and the Cloncurry Orogen (new names). The Bowthom Block, which is located between the Elizabeth Creek Thrust Zone and the Murphy Inlier, consists of an asymmetric wedge of volcanic, carbonate and clastic rocks. It ranges from over 10 000 m stratigraphic thickness in the south to less than 2000 min the north. The Bowthorn Block is relatively undeformed: however, it contains a series of reverse faults trending east-west that are interpreted from seismic data to be down-to-the-north normal faults that have been reactivated as thrusts. The Riversleigh Fold Zone is a folded and faulted region south of the Bowthorn Block, comprising much of the area formerly referred to as the Lawn Hill Platform. The Cloncurry Orogen consists of the area and sequences equivalent to the former Mount Isa Orogen. The name Cloncurry Orogen clearly distinguishes this area from the wider concept of the Mount Isa Basin. The South Nicholson Group and its probable correlatives, the Pilpah Sandstone and Quamby Conglomerate, comprise a later phase of now largely eroded deposits within the Mount Isa Basin. The name South Nicholson Basin is now outmoded as this terminology only applied to the South Nicholson Group unlike the original broader definition in Brown et al. (1968). Cored slimhole stratigraphic and mineral wells drilled by Amoco, Esso, Elf Aquitaine and Carpentaria Exploration prior to 1986, penetrated much of the stratigraphy and intersected both minor oil and gas shows plus excellent potential source rocks. The raw data were reinterpreted and augmented with seismic stratigraphy and source rock data from resampled mineral and petroleum stratigraphic exploration wells for this study. Since 1986, Comalco Aluminium Limited, as operator of a joint venture with Monument Resources Australia Limited and Bridge Oil Limited, recorded approximately 1000 km of reflection seismic data within the basin and drilled one conventional stratigraphic petroleum well, Beamesbrook-1. This work was the first reflection seismic and first conventional petroleum test of the northern Mount Isa Basin. When incorporated into the newly developed foreland basin and maturity models, a grass roots petroleum exploration play was recognised and this led to the present thesis. The Mount Isa Basin was seen to contain excellent source rocks coupled with potential reservoirs and all of the other essential aspects of a conventional petroleum exploration play. This play, although high risk, was commensurate with the enormous and totally untested petroleum potential of the basin. The basin was assessed for hydrocarbons in 1992 with three conventional exploration wells, Desert Creek-1, Argyle Creek-1 and Egilabria-1. These wells also tested and confrrmed the proposed basin model. No commercially viable oil or gas was encountered although evidence of its former existence was found. In addition to the petroleum exploration, indeed as a consequence of it, the association of the extensive base metal and other mineralisation in the Mount Isa Basin with hydrocarbons could not be overlooked. A comprehensive analysis of the available data suggests a link between the migration and possible generation or destruction of hydrocarbons and metal bearing fluids. Consequently, base metal exploration based on hydrocarbon exploration concepts is probably. the most effective technique in such basins. The metal-hydrocarbon-sedimentary basin-plate tectonic association (analogous to Phanerozoic models) is a compelling outcome of this work on the Palaeo- to Mesoproterozoic Mount lsa Basin. Petroleum within the Bowthom Block was apparently destroyed by hot brines that produced many ore deposits elsewhere in the basin.