Bayesian network for risk of diarrhea associated with the use of recycled water

Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.

Approximate Bayesian computation using indirect inference

We present a novel approach for developing summary statistics for use in approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) algorithms by using indirect inference. ABC methods are useful for posterior inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function. In the indirect inference approach to ABC the parameters of an auxiliary model fitted to the data become the summary statistics. Although applicable to any ABC technique, we embed this approach within a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that is completely adaptive and requires very little tuning. This methodological development was motivated by an application involving data on macroparasite population evolution modelled by a trivariate stochastic process for which there is no tractable likelihood function. The auxiliary model here is based on a beta–binomial distribution. The main objective of the analysis is to determine which parameters of the stochastic model are estimable from the observed data on mature parasite worms.

Optimal voltage support mechanism in distribution networks

Optimal scheduling of voltage regulators (VRs), fixed and switched capacitors and voltage on customer side of transformer (VCT) along with the optimal allocaton of VRs and capacitors are performed using a hybrid optimisation method based on discrete particle swarm optimisation and genetic algorithm. Direct optimisation of the tap position is not appropriate since in general the high voltage (HV) side voltage is not known. Therefore, the tap setting can be determined give the optimal VCT once the HV side voltage is known. The objective function is composed of the distribution line loss cost, the peak power loss cost and capacitors' and VRs' capital, operation and maintenance costs. The constraints are limits on bus voltage and feeder current along with VR taps. The bus voltage should be maintained within the standard level and the feeder current should not exceed the feeder-rated current. The taps are to adjust the output voltage of VRs between 90 and 110% of their input voltages. For validation of the proposed method, the 18-bus IEEE system is used. The results are compared with prior publications to illustrate the benefit of the employed technique. The results also show that the lowest cost planning for voltage profile will be achieved if a combination of capacitors, VRs and VCTs is considered.

Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Grounding action in visuo-haptic space using experience networks

Traditional approaches to the use of machine learning algorithms do not provide a method to learn multiple tasks in one-shot on an embodied robot. It is proposed that grounding actions within the sensory space leads to the development of action-state relationships which can be re-used despite a change in task. A novel approach called an Experience Network is developed and assessed on a real-world robot required to perform three separate tasks. After grounded representations were developed in the initial task, only minimal further learning was required to perform the second and third task.

Distributed object tracking with robot and disjoint camera networks

We describe a novel two stage approach to object localization and tracking using a network of wireless cameras and a mobile robot. In the first stage, a robot travels through the camera network while updating its position in a global coordinate frame which it broadcasts to the cameras. The cameras use this information, along with image plane location of the robot, to compute a mapping from their image planes to the global coordinate frame. This is combined with an occupancy map generated by the robot during the mapping process to track the objects. We present results with a nine node indoor camera network to demonstrate that this approach is feasible and offers acceptable level of accuracy in terms of object locations.

Innovation networks in the construction arena : the strategic management of mixed enterprises

The building and construction sector is one of the five largest contributors to the Australian economy and is a key performance component in the economy of many other jurisdictions. However, the ongoing viability of this sector is increasingly reliant on its ability to foster and transfer innovated products and practices. Interorganisational networks, which bring together key industry stakeholders and facilitate the flows of information, resources and trust necessary to secure innovation, have emerged as a key growth strategy within this and other arenas. The blending of organisations, resources and purposes creates new, hybrid institutional forms that draw on a mix of contract, structure and interpersonal relationship as integration processes. This paper argues that hybrid networked arrangements, because they incorporate relational elements, require management strategies and techniques that not always synonymous with conventional management approaches, including those used within the building and construction sector. It traces the emergence of the Construction Innovation Project in Australia as a hybrid institutional arrangement moulding public, private and academic stakeholders of the building and construction industry into a coherent collective force aimed at fostering innovation and its application within all levels of the industry. Specifically, the paper examines the Construction Innovation Project to ascertain the impact of relational governance and its management to harness and leverage the skills, resources and capacities of members to secure innovative outcomes. Finally, the paper offers some prospects to guide the ongoing work of this body and any other charged with a similar integrative responsibility.

A survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity in online social networks

A remarkable growth in quantity and popularity of online social networks has been observed in recent years. There is a good number of online social networks exists which have over 100 million registered users. Many of these popular social networks offer automated recommendations to their users. This automated recommendations are normally generated using collaborative filtering systems based on the past ratings or opinions of the similar users. Alternatively, trust among the users in the network also can be used to find the neighbors while making recommendations. To obtain the optimum result, there must be a positive correlation exists between trust and interest similarity. Though the positive relations between trust and interest similarity are assumed and adopted by many researchers; no survey work on real life people’s opinion to support this hypothesis is found. In this paper, we have reviewed the state-of-the-art research work on trust in online social networks and have presented the result of the survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity. Our result supports the assumed hypothesis of positive relationship between the trust and interest similarity of the users.

Developing trust networks based on user tagging information for recommendation making

Recommender systems are one of the recent inventions to deal with ever growing information overload. Collaborative filtering seems to be the most popular technique in recommender systems. With sufficient background information of item ratings, its performance is promising enough. But research shows that it performs very poor in a cold start situation where previous rating data is sparse. As an alternative, trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendation. User assigned explicit trust rating such as how much they trust each other is used for this purpose. However, reliable explicit trust data is not always available. In this paper we propose a new method of developing trust networks based on user’s interest similarity in the absence of explicit trust data. To identify the interest similarity, we have used user’s personalized tagging information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendations. Our experiment result shows that the proposed trust based method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach which uses users rating data. Its performance improves even further when we utilize trust propagation techniques to broaden the range of neighborhood.

Managing Trust in Online Social Networks

In recent years, there is a dramatic growth in number and popularity of online social networks. There are many networks available with more than 100 million registered users such as Facebook, MySpace, QZone, Windows Live Spaces etc. People may connect, discover and share by using these online social networks. The exponential growth of online communities in the area of social networks attracts the attention of the researchers about the importance of managing trust in online environment. Users of the online social networks may share their experiences and opinions within the networks about an item which may be a product or service. The user faces the problem of evaluating trust in a service or service provider before making a choice. Recommendations may be received through a chain of friends network, so the problem for the user is to be able to evaluate various types of trust opinions and recommendations. This opinion or recommendation has a great influence to choose to use or enjoy the item by the other user of the community. Collaborative filtering system is the most popular method in recommender system. The task in collaborative filtering is to predict the utility of items to a particular user based on a database of user rates from a sample or population of other users. Because of the different taste of different people, they rate differently according to their subjective taste. If two people rate a set of items similarly, they share similar tastes. In the recommender system, this information is used to recommend items that one participant likes, to other persons in the same cluster. But the collaborative filtering system performs poor when there is insufficient previous common rating available between users; commonly known as cost start problem. To overcome the cold start problem and with the dramatic growth of online social networks, trust based approach to recommendation has emerged. This approach assumes a trust network among users and makes recommendations based on the ratings of the users that are directly or indirectly trusted by the target user.

Corrupt police networks : uncovering hidden relationship patterns, functions and roles

This article applies social network analysis techniques to a case study of police corruption in order to produce findings which will assist in corruption prevention and investigation. Police corruption is commonly studied but rarely are sophisticated tools of analyse engaged to add rigour to the field of study. This article analyses the ‘First Joke’ a systemic and long lasting corruption network in the Queensland Police Force, a state police agency in Australia. It uses the data obtained from a commission of inquiry which exposed the network and develops hypotheses as to the nature of the networks structure based on existing literature into dark networks and criminal networks. These hypotheses are tested by entering the data into UCINET and analysing the outcomes through social network analysis measures of average path distance, centrality and density. The conclusions reached show that the network has characteristics not predicted by the literature.

Characterisation of public mobile data networks for aeronautical telemetry purposes

This paper describes the characterisation for airborne uses of the public mobile data communication systems known broadly as 3G. The motivation for this study was to explore how this mature public communication systems could be used for aviation purposes. An experimental system was fitted to a light aircraft to record communication latency, line speed, RF level, packet loss and cell tower identifier. Communications was established using internet protocols and connection was made to a local server. The aircraft was flown in both remote and populous areas at altitudes up to 8500ft in a region located in South East Queensland, Australia. Results show that the average airborne RF levels are better than those on the ground by 21% and in the order of -77 dbm. Latencies were in the order of 500 ms (1/2 the latency of Iridium), an average download speed of 0.48 Mb/s, average uplink speed of 0.85 Mb/s, a packet of information loss of 6.5%. The maximum communication range was also observed to be 70km from a single cell station. The paper also describes possible limitations and utility of using such a communications architecture for both manned and unmanned aircraft systems.

Challenges of tracking topical discussion networks online

Attempts to map online networks, representing relationships between people and sites, have covered sites including Facebook, Twitter, and blogs. However, the predominant approach of static network visualization, treating months of data as a single case rather than depicting changes over time or between topics, remains a flawed process. As different events and themes provoke varying interactions and conversations, it is proposed that case-by-case analysis would aid studies of online social networks by further examining the dynamics of links and information flows. This study uses hyperlink analysis of a population of French political blogs to compare connections between sites from January to August 2009. Themes discussed in this period were identified for subsequent analysis of topic-oriented networks. By comparing static blogrolls with topical citations within posts, this research addresses challenges and methods in mapping online networks, providing new information on temporal aspects of linking behaviors and information flows within these systems.