Modelling for the electricity distribution network

Global awareness for cleaner and renewable energy is transforming the electricity sector at many levels. New technologies are being increasingly integrated into the electricity grid at high, medium and low voltage levels, new taxes on carbon emissions are being introduced and individuals can now produce electricity, mainly through rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems. While leading to improvements, these changes also introduce challenges, and a question that often rises is ‘how can we manage this constantly evolving grid?’ The Queensland Government and Ergon Energy, one of the two Queensland distribution companies, have partnered with some Australian and German universities on a project to answer this question in a holistic manner. The project investigates the impact the integration of renewables and other new technologies has on the physical structure of the grid, and how this evolving system can be managed in a sustainable and economical manner. To aid understanding of what the future might bring, a software platform has been developed that integrates two modelling techniques: agent-based modelling (ABM) to capture the characteristics of the different system units accurately and dynamically, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the most economical mix of network extension and integration of distributed generation over long periods of time. Using data from Ergon Energy, two types of networks (3 phase, and Single Wired Earth Return or SWER) have been modelled; three-phase networks are usually used in dense networks such as urban areas, while SWER networks are widely used in rural Queensland. Simulations can be performed on these networks to identify the required upgrades, following a three-step process: a) what is already in place and how it performs under current and future loads, b) what can be done to manage it and plan the future grid and c) how these upgrades/new installations will perform over time. The number of small-scale distributed generators, e.g. PV and battery, is now sufficient (and expected to increase) to impact the operation of the grid, which in turn needs to be considered by the distribution network manager when planning for upgrades and/or installations to stay within regulatory limits. Different scenarios can be simulated, with different levels of distributed generation, in-place as well as expected, so that a large number of options can be assessed (Step a). Once the location, sizing and timing of assets upgrade and/or installation are found using optimisation techniques (Step b), it is possible to assess the adequacy of their daily performance using agent-based modelling (Step c). One distinguishing feature of this software is that it is possible to analyse a whole area at once, while still having a tailored solution for each of the sub-areas. To illustrate this, using the impact of battery and PV can have on the two types of networks mentioned above, three design conditions can be identified (amongst others): · Urban conditions o Feeders that have a low take-up of solar generators, may benefit from adding solar panels o Feeders that need voltage support at specific times, may be assisted by installing batteries · Rural conditions - SWER network o Feeders that need voltage support as well as peak lopping may benefit from both battery and solar panel installations. This small example demonstrates that no single solution can be applied across all three areas, and there is a need to be selective in which one is applied to each branch of the network. This is currently the function of the engineer who can define various scenarios against a configuration, test them and iterate towards an appropriate solution. Future work will focus on increasing the level of automation in identifying areas where particular solutions are applicable.

Selection et controle de modes de deplacement pour un robot mobile autonome en environnements naturels

Autonomous navigation and locomotion of a mobile robot in natural environments remain a rather open issue. Several functionalities are required to complete the usual perception/decision/action cycle. They can be divided in two main categories : navigation (perception and decision about the movement) and locomotion (movement execution). In order to be able to face the large range of possible situations in natural environments, it is essential to make use of various kinds of complementary functionalities, defining various navigation and locomotion modes. Indeed, a number of navigation and locomotion approaches have been proposed in the literature for the last years, but none can pretend being able to achieve autonomous navigation and locomotion in every situation. Thus, it seems relevant to endow an outdoor mobile robot with several complementary navigation and locomotion modes. Accordingly, the robot must also have means to select the most appropriate mode to apply. This thesis proposes the development of such a navigation/locomotion mode selection system, based on two types of data: an observation of the context to determine in what kind of situation the robot has to achieve its movement and an evaluation of the behavior of the current mode, made by monitors which influence the transitions towards other modes when the behavior of the current one is considered as non satisfying. Hence, this document introduces a probabilistic framework for the estimation of the mode to be applied, some navigation and locomotion modes used, a qualitative terrain representation method (based on the evaluation of a difficulty computed from the placement of the robot's structure on a digital elevation map), and monitors that check the behavior of the modes used (evaluation of rolling locomotion efficiency, robot's attitude and configuration watching. . .). Some experimental results obtained with those elements integrated on board two different outdoor robots are presented and discussed.

A near-to-far non-parametric learning approach for estimating traversability in deformable terrain

It is well recognized that many scientifically interesting sites on Mars are located in rough terrains. Therefore, to enable safe autonomous operation of a planetary rover during exploration, the ability to accurately estimate terrain traversability is critical. In particular, this estimate needs to account for terrain deformation, which significantly affects the vehicle attitude and configuration. This paper presents an approach to estimate vehicle configuration, as a measure of traversability, in deformable terrain by learning the correlation between exteroceptive and proprioceptive information in experiments. We first perform traversability estimation with rigid terrain assumptions, then correlate the output with experienced vehicle configuration and terrain deformation using a multi-task Gaussian Process (GP) framework. Experimental validation of the proposed approach was performed on a prototype planetary rover and the vehicle attitude and configuration estimate was compared with state-of-the-art techniques. We demonstrate the ability of the approach to accurately estimate traversability with uncertainty in deformable terrain.

Traversability estimation for a planetary rover via experimental kernel learning in a Gaussian process framework

A critical requirement for safe autonomous navigation of a planetary rover is the ability to accurately estimate the traversability of the terrain. This work considers the problem of predicting the attitude and configuration angles of the platform from terrain representations that are often incomplete due to occlusions and sensor limitations. Using Gaussian Processes (GP) and exteroceptive data as training input, we can provide a continuous and complete representation of terrain traversability, with uncertainty in the output estimates. In this paper, we propose a novel method that focuses on exploiting the explicit correlation in vehicle attitude and configuration during operation by learning a kernel function from vehicle experience to perform GP regression. We provide an extensive experimental validation of the proposed method on a planetary rover. We show significant improvement in the accuracy of our estimation compared with results obtained using standard kernels (Squared Exponential and Neural Network), and compared to traversability estimation made over terrain models built using state-of-the-art GP techniques.

Analysis of traffic injury severity in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This research identifies roadway, traffic, and environmental factors that influence the injury severity of road traffic crashes in Dhaka. Dhaka provides a rather unusual driving risk environment to study, since virtually anyone can obtain a drivers’ license and very little traffic enforcement and fines are given when drivers violate traffic rules. To examine this city with presumed heightened crash severity risk, police reported crash data from 2007 to 2011 containing about 2714 road traffic crashes were collected. The injury severity of traffic crashes—recorded as either fatal, serious injury, or property damage only—were modeled using an ordered Probit model. Significant factors increasing the probability of fatal injuries include crashes along highways (65%), absence of a road divider (80%), crashes during night time (54%), and vehicle-pedestrian collisions (367%); whereas two-way traffic configuration (21%), and traffic police controlled schemes (41%) decrease the probability of fatalities. Both similarities and differences of the findings between crash risk in Dhaka and developed countries are discussed in policy relevant terms.

Estimation of biodiesel properties from chemical composition – An artificial neural network (ANN) approach

Biodiesel, produced from renewable feedstock represents a more sustainable source of energy and will therefore play a significant role in providing the energy requirements for transportation in the near future. Chemically, all biodiesels are fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), produced from raw vegetable oil and animal fat. However, clear differences in chemical structure are apparent from one feedstock to the next in terms of chain length, degree of unsaturation, number of double bonds and double bond configuration-which all determine the fuel properties of biodiesel. In this study, prediction models were developed to estimate kinematic viscosity of biodiesel using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modelling technique. While developing the model, 27 parameters based on chemical composition commonly found in biodiesel were used as the input variables and kinematic viscosity of biodiesel was used as output variable. Necessary data to develop and simulate the network were collected from more than 120 published peer reviewed papers. The Neural Networks Toolbox of MatLab R2012a software was used to train, validate and simulate the ANN model on a personal computer. The network architecture and learning algorithm were optimised following a trial and error method to obtain the best prediction of the kinematic viscosity. The predictive performance of the model was determined by calculating the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared (RMS) and maximum average error percentage (MAEP) between predicted and experimental results. This study found high predictive accuracy of the ANN in predicting fuel properties of biodiesel and has demonstrated the ability of the ANN model to find a meaningful relationship between biodiesel chemical composition and fuel properties. Therefore the model developed in this study can be a useful tool to accurately predict biodiesel fuel properties instead of undertaking costly and time consuming experimental tests.

Hybrid multi-channel cooperative spectrum sensing to satisfy channel target

Spectrum sensing of multiple primary user channels is a crucial function in cognitive radio networks. In this paper we propose an optimal, sensing resource allocation algorithm for multi-channel cooperative spectrum sensing. The channel target is implemented as an objective and constraint to ensure a pre-determined number of empty channels are detected for secondary user network operations. Based on primary user traffic parameters, we calculate the minimum number of primary user channels that must be sensed to satisfy the channel target. We implement a hybrid sensing structure by grouping secondary user nodes into clusters and assign each cluster to sense a different primary user channels. We then solve the resource allocation problem to find the optimal sensing configuration and node allocation to minimise sensing duration. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm requires the shortest sensing duration to achieve the channel target compared to existing studies that require long sensing and cannot guarantee the target.

An efficient hybrid evolutionary optimization algorithm for daily volt/var control at distribution system including DGs

This paper presents a new hybrid evolutionary algorithm based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) for daily Volt/Var control in distribution system including Distributed Generators (DGs). Due to the small X/R ratio and radial configuration of distribution systems, DGs have much impact on this problem. Since DGs are independent power producers or private ownership, a price based methodology is proposed as a proper signal to encourage owners of DGs in active power generation. Generally, the daily Volt/Var control is a nonlinear optimization problem. Therefore, an efficient hybrid evolutionary method based on Particle Swarm Optimization and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), called HPSO, is proposed to determine the active power values of DGs, reactive power values of capacitors and tap positions of transformers for the next day. The feasibility of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated and compared with methods based on the original PSO, ACO and GA algorithms on IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder.

Switching radical stability by pH-induced orbital conversion

In most radicals the singly occupied molecular orbital (SOMO) is the highest-energy occupied molecular orbital (HOMO); however, in a small number of reported compounds this is not the case. In the present work we expand significantly the scope of this phenomenon, known as SOMO-HOMO energy-level conversion, by showing that it occurs in virtually any distonic radical anion that contains a sufficiently stabilized radical (aminoxyl, peroxyl, aminyl) non-pi-conjugated with a negative charge (carboxylate, phosphate, sulfate). Moreover, regular orbital order is restored on protonation of the anionic fragment, and hence the orbital configuration can be switched by pH. Most importantly, our theoretical and experimental results reveal a dramatically higher radical stability and proton acidity of such distonic radical anions. Changing radical stability by 3-4 orders of magnitude using pH-induced orbital conversion opens a variety of attractive industrial applications, including pH-switchable nitroxide-mediated polymerization, and it might be exploited in nature.

Simulations of the spontaneous emission of a quantum dot near a gap plasmon waveguide

In this paper we modeled a quantum dot at near proximity to a gap plasmon waveguide to study the quantum dot-plasmon interactions. Assuming that the waveguide is single mode, this paper is concerned about the dependence of spontaneous emission rate of the quantum dot on waveguide dimensions such as width and height. We compare coupling efficiency of a gap waveguide with symmetric configuration and asymmetric configuration illustrating that symmetric waveguide has a better coupling efficiency to the quantum dot. We also demonstrate that optimally placed quantum dot near a symmetric waveguide with 50 nm x 50 nm cross section can capture 80% of the spontaneous emission into a guided plasmon mode.

Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov methods with GPU acceleration for computing nonlinear ship wave patterns

The nonlinear problem of steady free-surface flow past a submerged source is considered as a case study for three-dimensional ship wave problems. Of particular interest is the distinctive wedge-shaped wave pattern that forms on the surface of the fluid. By reformulating the governing equations with a standard boundary-integral method, we derive a system of nonlinear algebraic equations that enforce a singular integro-differential equation at each midpoint on a two-dimensional mesh. Our contribution is to solve the system of equations with a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov method together with a banded preconditioner that is carefully constructed with entries taken from the Jacobian of the linearised problem. Further, we are able to utilise graphics processing unit acceleration to significantly increase the grid refinement and decrease the run-time of our solutions in comparison to schemes that are presently employed in the literature. Our approach provides opportunities to explore the nonlinear features of three-dimensional ship wave patterns, such as the shape of steep waves close to their limiting configuration, in a manner that has been possible in the two-dimensional analogue for some time.

THE quest for alpha : can artificial neural networks help?

The application of artificial neural networks (ANN) in finance is relatively new area of research. We employed ANNs that used both fundamental and technical inputs to predict future prices of widely held Australian stocks and used these predicted prices for stock portfolio selection over a 10-year period (2001-2011). We found that the ANNs generally do well in predicting the direction of stock price movements. The stock portfolios selected by the ANNs with median accuracy are able to generate positive alpha over the 10-year period. More importantly, we found that a portfolio based on randomly selected network configuration had zero chance of resulting in a significantly negative alpha but a 27% chance of yielding a significantly positive alpha. This is in stark contrast to the findings of the research on mutual fund performance where active fund managers with negative alphas outnumber those with positive alphas.

Introduction to the special issue on next generation network architectures, protocols, theory, systems and applications

This special issue of Networking Science focuses on Next Generation Network (NGN) that enables the deployment of access independent services over converged fixed and mobile networks. NGN is a packet-based network and uses the Internet protocol (IP) to transport the various types of traffic (voice, video, data and signalling). NGN facilitates easy adoption of distributed computing applications by providing high speed connectivity in a converged networked environment. It also makes end user devices and applications highly intelligent and efficient by empowering them with programmability and remote configuration options. However, there are a number of important challenges in provisioning next generation network technologies in a converged communication environment. Some preliminary challenges include those that relate to QoS, switching and routing, management and control, and security which must be addressed on an urgent or emergency basis. The consideration of architectural issues in the design and pro- vision of secure services for NGN deserves special attention and hence is the main theme of this special issue.

A detailed investigation of nominally 2-D radical-farming scramjet combustion

This paper reports on an investigation of the flow/chemistry coupling inside a nominally two-dimensional inlet-fuelled scramjet configuration. The experiments were conducted at a freestream Mach number of 7.3 and a total flow enthalpy of 4.3MJ/kg corresponding to a Mach 9.7 flight condition. The phenomenon of radical-farming has been studied in detail using two-dimensional OH* chemiluminescence imaging and emission spectroscopy. High signal levels of excited OH (OH*) were detected behind the first shock reflections inside the combustion chamber upstream of any measurable pressure rise from combustion, which occurred towards the rear of the combustor. The production of OH in the first hot pocket initiates the ignition process and then accelerates the combustion process in the next downstream hot pocket. This was confirmed by numerical simulations of premixed hydrogen/air flow through the scramjet. Chemical kinetics analyses reveal that the ignition process is governed by the interaction between various reaction groups leading to a chainbranching explosion for low mean temperature and pressure combustion flowfields.

The SCRAMSPACE I scramjet flight design and construction

The design activities of the development of the SCRAMSPACE I scramjet-powered free-flight experiment are described in this paper. The objectives of this flight are first described together with the definition of the primary, secondary and tertiary experiments. The Scramjet configuration studied is first discussed together with the rocket motor system selected for this flight. The different flight sequences are then explained, highlighting the SCRAMSPACE I free-flyer separation and re-orientation procedures. A design trade-off study is then described considering vehicle stability, packaging, thermo-structural analysis and trajectory, discussing the alignment of the predicted performance with the mission scientific requirements. The global system architecture and instrumentation of the vehicle are then explained. The conclusions of this design phase are that a vehicle design has been produced which is able to meet the mission scientific goals and the procurement & construction of the vehicle are ongoing.