Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Epidemiologic characteristics of cases for influenza A(H7N9) virus infections in China

China's National Health and Family Planning Commission announced 3 deaths caused by avian-origin influenza A(H7N9) virus in March, which was the first time that the H7N9 strain has been found in humans [1]. This is of major public health significance and raises urgent questions and global concerns [2, 3]. To explore epidemic characteristics of human infections with H7N9 virus, data on individual cases from 19 February 2013 (onset date of first case) to 14 April 2013 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, which included information about sex; age; occupation; residential address; and day of symptom onset, diagnosis, and outcome for each case. The definition of an unconfirmed probable H7N9 case is a patient with epidemiologic evidence of contact …

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus : methodological challenges and research needs

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world’s population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations with two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination.

Limited dengue virus replication in field-collected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with Wolbachia

Introduction Dengue is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in the world. The causative agent, dengue virus (DENV), is primarily transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a species that has proved difficult to control using conventional methods. The discovery that A. aegypti transinfected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia showed limited DENV replication led to trial field releases of these mosquitoes in Cairns, Australia as a biocontrol strategy for the virus. Methodology/Principal Findings Field collected wMel mosquitoes that were challenged with three DENV serotypes displayed limited rates of body infection, viral replication and dissemination to the head compared to uninfected controls. Rates of dengue infection, replication and dissemination in field wMel mosquitoes were similar to those observed in the original transinfected wMel line that had been maintained in the laboratory. We found that wMel was distributed in similar body tissues in field mosquitoes as in laboratory ones, but, at seven days following blood-feeding, wMel densities increased to a greater extent in field mosquitoes. Conclusions/Significance Our results indicate that virus-blocking is likely to persist in Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes after their release and establishment in wild populations, suggesting that Wolbachia biocontrol may be a successful strategy for reducing dengue transmission in the field.

Epidemiological and molecular features of dengue virus type-1 in New Caledonia, South Pacific, 2001–2013

Background The epidemiology of dengue in the South Pacific has been characterized by transmission of a single dominant serotype for 3–5 years, with subsequent replacement by another serotype. From 2001 to 2008 only DENV-1 was reported in the Pacific. In 2008, DENV-4 emerged and quickly displaced DENV-1 in the Pacific, except in New Caledonia (NC) where DENV-1 and DENV-4 co-circulated in 2008–2009. During 2012–2013, another DENV-1 outbreak occurred in NC, the third DENV-1 outbreak in a decade. Given that dengue is a serotype-specific immunizing infection, the recurrent outbreaks of a single serotype within a 10-year period was unexpected. Findings This study aimed to inform this phenomenon by examining the phylogenetic characteristics of the DENV-1 viruses in NC and other Pacific islands between 2001 and 2013. As a result, we have demonstrated that NC experienced introductions of viruses from both the Pacific (genotype IV) and South-east Asia (genotype I). Moreover, whereas genotype IV and I were co-circulating at the beginning of 2012, we observed that from the second half of 2012, i.e. during the major DENV-1 outbreak, all analyzed viruses were genotype I suggesting that a genotype switch occurred. Conclusions Repeated outbreaks of the same dengue serotype, as observed in NC, is uncommon in the Pacific islands. Why the earlier DENV-1 outbreaks did not induce sufficient herd immunity is unclear, and likely multifactorial, but the robust vector control program may have played a role by limiting transmission and thus maintaining a large susceptible pool in the population. Keywords: Dengue; Phylogeny; Genotype; Epidemics; New Caledonia

Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviation fuel from microalgae,Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane

Technoeconomic analysis of renewable aviatin fuels has not been widely considered, despite the increasing global attention that the field has received. We present three process models for production of aviation fuel from microalgae, Pongamia pinnata, and sugarcane molasses. The models and assumptions have been deposited on a wiki (http://qsafi.aibn.uq.edu.au) and are open and accessible to the community. Based on currently available long-term reputable technological data, this analysis indicates that the biorefinieries processing the microalgae, Pongamia seeds, and sugarcane feedstocks would be competitive with crude oil at $1343, $374, and $301/bbl, respectively. Sensitivity analyses of the major economic drivers suggest technological and market developments that would bring the corresponding figures down to $385, $255, and $168/bbl. The dynamic nature of the freely accessible models will allow the community to track progress toward economic competitiveness of aviation fuels from these renewable feedstocks.

Effect of trash on the coagulation and flocculation of sugarcane juice

The processing of juice expressed from whole green sugarcane crop (stalk and trash) leads to poor clarification performance, reduced sugar yield and poor raw sugar quality. The cause of these adverse effects is linked to the disproportionate contribution of impurities from the trash component of the crop. This paper reports on the zeta (ζ) potential, average size distribution (d50) and fractal dimension (Df) of limed juice particles derived from various juice types using laser diffraction and dynamic light scattering techniques. The influence of non-sucrose impurities on the interactive energy contributions between sugarcane juice particles was examined on the basis of Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory. Results from these investigations have provided evidence (in terms of particle stability) on why juice particles derived from whole green sugarcane crop are relatively difficult to coagulate (and flocculate). The presence of trash reduces the van der Waals forces of attraction between particles, thereby reducing coagulation and flocculation processes. It is anticipated that further fundamental work will lead to strategies that could be adopted for clarifying juices expressed from whole green sugarcane crop.

Effect of trash on the coagulation and flocculation of sugarcane juice

The processing of juice expressed from whole green sugarcane crop (stalk and trash) leads to poor clarification performance, reduced sugar yield and poor raw sugar quality. The cause of these adverse effects is linked to the disproportionate contribution of impurities from the trash component of the crop. This paper reports on the zeta (?) potential, average size distribution (d50) and fractal dimension (Df) of limed juice particles derived from various juice types using laser diffraction and dynamic light scattering techniques. The influence of non-sucrose impurities on the interactive energy contributions between sugarcane juice particles was examined on the basis of Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek (DLVO) theory. Results from these investigations have provided evidence (in terms of particle stability) on why juice particles derived from whole green sugarcane crop are relatively difficult to coagulate (and flocculate). The presence of trash reduces the van der Waals forces of attraction between particles, thereby reducing coagulation and flocculation processes. It is anticipated that further fundamental work will lead to strategies that could be adopted for clarifying juices expressed from whole green sugarcane crop.

Prospects for the development of sugarcane biorefineries

Sugarcane biorefineries co-producing fuels, green chemicals and bio-products offer great potential for improving the profitability and sustainability of sugarcane industries around the world. Sugarcane bagasse is widely regarded as one of the best biomass feedstocks for early adoption and commercialisation of biorefining technologies because of the large scale of the resource and its availability at sugar factories. Biomass biorefineries aim to convert bagasse through biochemical and thermochemical processes to produce low cost fermentable sugars which are a platform for value-adding. Through subsequent fermentation technologies or chemical synthesis, the sugars can be converted to fuels including ethanol and butanol, oils, organic acids such as succinic and levulinic and polymer precursors. Other biorefinery products can include food and animal feeds, plastics, fibre products and resins. Recent advances in biorefinery production technologies are being demonstrated in a unique research facility at the Queensland University of Technology’s Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant in Mackay, Australia. This pilot scale production facility located at Mackay Sugar Ltd’s Racecourse Mill is demonstrating the production of a range of fuels and other products from sugarcane bagasse. This paper will address the opportunities available for sugarcane biorefineries to contribute to future profitability and sustainability of the sugarcane industry.

Recombinant cellulase accumulation in the leaves of mature, vegetatively propagated transgenic sugarcane

The cost of enzymes that hydrolyse lignocellulosic substrates to fermentable sugars needs to be reduced to make cellulosic ethanol a cost-competitive liquid transport fuel. Sugarcane is a perennial crop and the successful integration of cellulase transgenes into the sugarcane production system requires that transgene expression is stable in the ratoon. Herein, we compared the accumulation of recombinant fungal cellobiohydrolase I (CBH I), fungal cellobiohydrolase II (CBH II), and bacterial endoglucanase (EG) in the leaves of mature, initial transgenic sugarcane plants and their mature ratoon. Mature ratoon events containing equivalent or elevated levels of active CBH I, CBH II, and EG in the leaves were identified. Further, we have demonstrated that recombinant fungal CBH I and CBH II can resist proteolysis during sugarcane leaf senescence, while bacterial EG cannot. These results demonstrate the stability of cellulase enzyme transgene expression in transgenic sugarcane and the utility of sugarcane as a biofactory crop for production of cellulases.

Preparation and characterization of composites from starch with sugarcane bagasse nanofibres

This paper reports on the results of using unbleached sugar cane bagasse nanofibres (average diameter 26.5 nm; aspect ratio 247 assuming a dry fibre density of 1,500 kg/m3) to improve the physico-chemical properties of starch-based films. The addition of bagasse nanofibres (2.5 to 20 wt%) to modified potato starch (i.e. soluble starch) reduced the moisture uptake by up to 17 % at 58 % relative humidity. The film’s tensile strength and Young’s modulus increased by up to 100 % (3.1 to 6.2 MPa) and 300 % (66.3 to 198.3 MPa) respectively with 10 and 20 wt% fibre addition. However, the strain at yield dropped by 50 % for the film containing 10 wt% fibre. Models for composite materials were used to account for the strong interactions between the nanofibres and the starch matrix. The storage and loss moduli as well as the glass transition temperature (Tg) obtained from dynamic mechanical thermal analysis, were increased with the starch-nanofibre films indicating decreased starch chain mobility due to the interacting effect of the nanofibres. Evidence of the existence of strong interactions between the starch matrix and the nanofibres was revealed from detailed Fourier transform infra-red and scanning electron microscopic evaluation.

Epidemiological patterns of Ross River virus disease in Queensland, Australia, 2001-2011

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is a debilitating disease which has a significant impact on population health, economic productivity and tourism in Australia. This study examined epidemiological patterns of the RRV disease in Queensland, Australia between January 2001 and December 2011 at a statistical local area level. Spatial-temporal analyses were used to identify the patterns of the disease distribution over time stratified by age, sex and space. The results show that the mean annual incidence was 54 per 100,000 people, with a male: female ratio of 1:1.1. Two space-time clusters were identified: the areas adjacent to Townsville, on the eastern coast of Queensland; and the south east areas. Thus, although public health intervention should be considered across all areas in which RRV occurs, it should specifically focus on these high risk regions, particularly during the summer and autumn to reduce the social and economic impacts of RRV.

Geographic co-distribution of influenza virus subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in humans, China

Human infection with a novel low pathogenicity influenza A(H7N9) virus in eastern China has recently raised global public health concerns (1). The geographic sources of infection have yet to be fully clarified, and confirmed human cases from 1 province have not been linked to those from other provinces. While some studies have identified epidemiologic characteristics of subtype H7N9 cases and clinical differences between these cases and cases of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1), another avian influenza affecting parts of China (2–4), the spatial epidemiology of human infection with influenza subtypes H7N9 and H5N1 in China has yet to be elucidated. To test the hypothesis of co-distribution of high-risk clusters of both types of infection, we used all available data on human cases in mainland China and investigated the geospatial epidemiologic features...

Production of levulinic acid and other chemicals from sugarcane fibre

Lignocellulosics represent a renewable resource for producing fuels and chemicals as an alternative to fossil resources. This study utilised an organic acid catalyst and a co-solvent to develop an environmentally friendly processing technology for the production of levulinic acid and furfural from a waste material, sugarcane fibre.