An efficient DSE using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution

This paper presents an efficient noniterative method for distribution state estimation using conditional multivariate complex Gaussian distribution (CMCGD). In the proposed method, the mean and standard deviation (SD) of the state variables is obtained in one step considering load uncertainties, measurement errors, and load correlations. In this method, first the bus voltages, branch currents, and injection currents are represented by MCGD using direct load flow and a linear transformation. Then, the mean and SD of bus voltages, or other states, are calculated using CMCGD and estimation of variance method. The mean and SD of pseudo measurements, as well as spatial correlations between pseudo measurements, are modeled based on the historical data for different levels of load duration curve. The proposed method can handle load uncertainties without using time-consuming approaches such as Monte Carlo. Simulation results of two case studies, six-bus, and a realistic 747-bus distribution network show the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of speed, accuracy, and quality against the conventional approach.

Minimising the failure of rail joints through managing the localised condition of track

To effectively address the high rate of failure of Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) in the heavy haul lines, a research plan was designed and implemented with particular attention to understand their mechanical behaviour and deterioration process. In this paper, part of this ongoing research is described. During the past decades many studies have tried to improve the service life of IRJs by introducing a new structural design or material for IRJ components. This paper looks into this problem from a different perspective highlighting the significance of localised condition of track to the loads and responses of the IRJs. Results from a series of field measurements conducted in a rail track within the Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) network are discussed. The interactive effects of IRJ responses and localised track condition are further investigated using the results obtained from numerical simulations. The field measurements and the simulation results provide valuable insight on the influence of track condition to the behaviour of IRJs.

Tuning the resonance properties of 2D carbon nanotube networks towards a mechanical resonator

The capabilities of the mechanical resonator-based nanosensors in detecting ultra-small mass or force shifts have driven a continuing exploration of the palette of nanomaterials for such application purposes. Based on large-scale molecular dynamics simulations, we have assessed the applicability of a new class of carbon nanomaterials for nanoresonator usage, i.e. the single-wall carbon nanotube (SWNT) network. It is found that SWNT networks inherit excellent mechanical properties from the constituent SWNTs, possessing a high natural frequency. However, although a high quality factor is suggested from the simulation results, it is hard to obtain an unambiguous Q-factor due to the existence of vibration modes in addition to the dominant mode. The nonlinearities resulting from these extra vibration modes are found to exist uniformly under various testing conditions including different initial actuations and temperatures. Further testing shows that these modes can be effectively suppressed through the introduction of axial strain, leading to an extremely high quality factor in the order of 109 estimated from the SWNT network with 2% tensile strain. Additional studies indicate that the carbon rings connecting the SWNTs can also be used to alter the vibrational properties of the resulting network. This study suggests that the SWNT network can be a good candidate for applications as nanoresonators.

Numerical optimization of soft-mold aided co-curing process of advanced grid-stiffened composite structures

The co-curing process for advanced grid-stiffened (AGS) composite structure is a promising manufacturing process, which could reduce the manufacturing cost, augment the advantages and improve the performance of AGS composite structure. An improved method named soft-mold aided co-curing process which replaces the expansion molds by a whole rubber mold is adopted in this paper. This co-curing process is capable to co-cure a typical AGS composite structure with the manufacturer’s recommended cure cycle (MRCC). Numerical models are developed to evaluate the variation of temperature and the degree of cure in AGS composite structure during the soft-mold aided co-curing process. The simulation results were validated by experimental results obtained from embedded temperature sensors. Based on the validated modeling framework, the cycle of cure can be optimized by reducing more than half the time of MRCC while obtaining a reliable degree of cure. The shape and size effects of AGS composite structure on the distribution of temperature and degree of cure are also investigated to provide insights for the optimization of soft-mold aided co-curing process.

Speed-based diagnostics of aerodynamic and mass imbalance in large wind turbines

Any kind of imbalance in the operation of a wind turbine has adverse effect on the downstream torsional components as well as tower structure. It is crucial to detect imbalance at its very inception. The identification of the type of imbalance is also required so that appropriate measures of fault accommodation can be performed in the control system. In particular, it is important to distinguish between mass and aerodynamic imbalance. While the former is gradually caused by a structural anomaly (e.g. ice deposition, moisture accumulation inside blade), the latter is generally associated to a fault in the pitch control system. This paper proposes a technique for the detection and identification of imbalance fault in large scale wind turbines. Unlike most other existing method it requires only the rotor speed signal which is readily available in existing turbines. Signature frequencies have been proposed in this work to identify imbalance type based on their physical phenomenology. The performance of this technique has been evaluated by simulations using an existing benchmark model. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been confirmed by the simulation results.

Estimates on the coverage of parameter space using populations of models

In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.

An anticipative reactive control strategy to deal with unforeseen obstacles during a multi-sensor-based navigation task

We address the problem of the rangefinder-based avoidance of unforeseen static obstacles during a visual navigation task. We extend previous strategies which are efficient in most cases but remain still hampered by some drawbacks (e.g., risks of collisions or of local minima in some particular cases, etc.). The key idea is to complete the control strategy by adding a controller providing the robot some anticipative skills to guarantee non collision and by defining more general transition conditions to deal with local minima. Simulation results show the proposed strategy efficiency.

Linear and weakly nonlinear stability analyses of cooperative car-following models

Stability analyses have been widely used to better understand the mechanism of traffic jam formation. In this paper, we consider the impact of cooperative systems (a.k.a. connected vehicles) on traffic dynamics and, more precisely, on flow stability. Cooperative systems are emerging technologies enabling communication between vehicles and/or with the infrastructure. In a distributed communication framework, equipped vehicles are able to send and receive information to/from other equipped vehicles. Here, the effects of cooperative traffic are modeled through a general bilateral multianticipative car-following law that improves cooperative drivers' perception of their surrounding traffic conditions within a given communication range. Linear stability analyses are performed for a broad class of car-following models. They point out different stability conditions in both multianticipative and nonmultianticipative situations. To better understand what happens in unstable conditions, information on the shock wave structure is studied in the weakly nonlinear regime by the mean of the reductive perturbation method. The shock wave equation is obtained for generic car-following models by deriving the Korteweg de Vries equations. We then derive traffic-state-dependent conditions for the sign of the solitary wave (soliton) amplitude. This analytical result is verified through simulations. Simulation results confirm the validity of the speed estimate. The variation of the soliton amplitude as a function of the communication range is provided. The performed linear and weakly nonlinear analyses help justify the potential benefits of vehicle-integrated communication systems and provide new insights supporting the future implementation of cooperative systems.

Performance analysis of solar desiccant-evaporative cooling for a commercial building under different Australian climates

This paper evaluates and compares the system performance of a solar desiccant-evaporative cooling (SDEC) system with a referenced conventional variable air volume (VAV) system for a typical office building in all 8 Australian capital cities. A simulation model of the building is developed using the whole building simulation software EnergyPlus. The performance indicators for the comparison are system coefficient of performance (COP), annual primary energy consumption, annual energy savings, and annual CO2 emissions reduction. The simulation results show that Darwin has the most apparent advantages for SDEC system applications with an annual energy savings of 557 GJ and CO2 emission reduction of 121 tonnes. The maximum system COP is 7. For other climate zones such as Canberra, Hobart and Melbourne, the SDEC system is not as energy efficient as the conventional VAV system.

Deep transverse metatarsal ligaments mechanical response during landing

The deep transverse metatarsal ligaments play an important role in stabilizing the metatarsal bones and manipulating foot transverse arch deformation. However, the biomechanical research about transverse metatarsal ligaments in the foot maneuver is quite few. Due to the difficulties and lack of better measurement technology for these ligaments experimental monitor, the load transfer mechanism and internal stress state also hadn't been well addressed. The purpose of this study was to develop a detailing foot finite element model including transverse metatarsal ligaments tissues, to investigate the mechanical response of transverse metatarsal ligaments during the landing condition. The transverse metatarsal ligaments were considered as hyperelastic material model was used to represent the nonlinear and nearly incompressible nature of the ligament tissue. From the simulation results, it is clearly to find that the peak maiximal principal stress of transverse metatarsal ligaments was between the third and fourth metatarsals. Meanwhile, it seems the transverse metatarsal ligaments in the middle position experienced higher tension than the sides transverse metatarsal ligaments.

Finite element analysis of deep transverse metatarsal ligaments mechanical response during landing

The deep transverse metatarsal ligaments (DTML) play an important role in stabilizing the metatarsal bones and manipulating foot transverse arch deformation. However, the biomechanical research about DTML in the foot maneuver is quite few. Due to the difficulties and lack of better measurement technology for these ligaments experimental monitor, the load transfer mechanism and internal stress state also hadn't been well addressed. The purpose of this study was to develop a detailing foot finite element model including DTML tissues, to investigate the mechanical response of DTML during the landing condition. The DTML was considered as hyperelastic material model was used to represent the nonlinear and nearly incompressible nature of the ligament tissue. From the simulation results, it is clearly to find that the peak maiximal principal stress of DTML was between the third and fourth metatarsals. Meanwhile, it seems the DTML in the middle position experienced higher tension than the sides DTML.

Model selection with misspecified spatial covariance structure

Spatial data analysis has become more and more important in the studies of ecology and economics during the last decade. One focus of spatial data analysis is how to select predictors, variance functions and correlation functions. However, in general, the true covariance function is unknown and the working covariance structure is often misspecified. In this paper, our target is to find a good strategy to identify the best model from the candidate set using model selection criteria. This paper is to evaluate the ability of some information criteria (corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and residual information criterion (RIC)) for choosing the optimal model when the working correlation function, the working variance function and the working mean function are correct or misspecified. Simulations are carried out for small to moderate sample sizes. Four candidate covariance functions (exponential, Gaussian, Matern and rational quadratic) are used in simulation studies. With the summary in simulation results, we find that the misspecified working correlation structure can still capture some spatial correlation information in model fitting. When the sample size is large enough, BIC and RIC perform well even if the the working covariance is misspecified. Moreover, the performance of these information criteria is related to the average level of model fitting which can be indicated by the average adjusted R square ( [GRAPHICS] ), and overall RIC performs well.

A simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials

A flexible and simple Bayesian decision-theoretic design for dose-finding trials is proposed in this paper. In order to reduce the computational burden, we adopt a working model with conjugate priors, which is flexible to fit all monotonic dose-toxicity curves and produces analytic posterior distributions. We also discuss how to use a proper utility function to reflect the interest of the trial. Patients are allocated based on not only the utility function but also the chosen dose selection rule. The most popular dose selection rule is the one-step-look-ahead (OSLA), which selects the best-so-far dose. A more complicated rule, such as the two-step-look-ahead, is theoretically more efficient than the OSLA only when the required distributional assumptions are met, which is, however, often not the case in practice. We carried out extensive simulation studies to evaluate these two dose selection rules and found that OSLA was often more efficient than two-step-look-ahead under the proposed Bayesian structure. Moreover, our simulation results show that the proposed Bayesian method's performance is superior to several popular Bayesian methods and that the negative impact of prior misspecification can be managed in the design stage.

Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.