Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

The role of counselling in healing from sexual assault in childhood from the phenomenological perspective of men and women

Serious Childhood Sexual Assault (CSA) has the potential for a wide range of extreme difficulties, not only in childhood but for many years to come. However, the lasting negative impacts are not inevitable and with the right help, those who have experienced CSA can go on to enjoy whole and fulfilling lives. The question posed in this research is “What comprises “the right help”? The present study qualitatively investigated the narratives of men and women with regard to what was deemed important components of counselling which facilitated their healing from childhood sexual assault. Participants consisted of 21 women and 11 men who had sought both individual and group counselling to work through issues stemming from traumatic sexual assault in childhood. Findings presented here describe three superordinate themes which were essential in the healing process, incorporating abuse-specific, client-specific and practitioner-specific components. A final superordinate theme of negative experiences in counselling is also presented, describing unhelpful or negative counselling experiences. Similarities between men and women as to the important components of counselling was remarkable, however important gender differences were also observed.

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.

Constitutive Regulation of the Firm: occupational health and safety, dismissal, discrimination and sexual harassment

As many other chapters in this book have noted, until recently labour lawyers have tended not to draaw on regulatory scholarship. In this chapter we look at certain areas of labour law through a particular kind of regulatory lens - regulation that requires firms to reconstitute their management processes and procedures, perhaps even their organisational cultures. In particular, we examine the kinds of regulatory demands made on firms by legal rules in four areas of labour law: (i) occupational health and safety (OHS)regulation; unfair dismissal law; equal opportunity (EO) and (iv) sexual harassment law.

Young Australian adults' beliefs about alcohol's role in sexual aggression and victimisation

Beliefs and misconceptions about sex, gender, and rape have been explored extensively to explain people’s attributions concerning alcohol-involved sexual violence. However, less is known about the specific beliefs that people hold about how alcohol facilitates sexual aggression and victimisation. The present study aimed to identify these alcohol-related beliefs among young Australian adults. Six men and nine women (N = 15; 18-24 years) in focus groups (n = 13) and interviews (n = 2) were asked to discuss the role of alcohol in a hypothetical alcohol-involved rape. Using a consensual qualitative research methodology, the effects of alcohol that were seen to introduce, progress, and intensify risks for rape were: increased confidence; character transformation: impaired cognition; behavioural disinhibition; altered sexual negotiation; enhanced self-centredness; impaired awareness of wrongdoing; increased/decreased sexual assertiveness; and compromised self-protection. Some of the beliefs identified in this study are not currently captured in alcohol expectancy measures which assess people’s beliefs about alcohol’s effects on cognition, emotion, and behaviour. This study’s findings offer a conceptual basis for the development of a new alcohol expectancy measure that can be used in future rape-perception research.

Explicating the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability: Alcohol expectancies in rape attributions

Despite evidence suggesting that alcohol expectancies may influence people’s rape perceptions, no study to date has measured context-specific expectancies comprehensively. This study represents an initial investigation of the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability alcohol expectancies in young Australian adults’ rape blame attributions. Using a vignette method, it was hypothesised that participants’ stronger expectancy endorsement would predict lesser perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Participants (N = 210; 34.9% males; 18-25 years) read a hypothetical rape scenario and rated dimensions of blameworthiness attributed to the intoxicated sexual perpetrator and victim. Participants completed the Sexual Coercion and Sexual Vulnerability sub-scales of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire for the targets self, men, and women in addition to measures of traditional gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that, as expected, stronger sexual coercion expectancy predicted lower perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Self-oriented expectancy predicted evaluations of the perpetrator whereas other-oriented expectancy predicted victim evaluations. These effects were robust after controlling for gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Alcohol expectancies appear to be part of a network of beliefs and attitudes which perpetuate biased rape attributions and may be useful to challenge in altering rape perceptions.

Pathways to peace : a phenomenological exploration of the processes of healing and posttraumatic growth following childhood sexual assault

This thesis explored pathways to healing in men and women who experienced traumatic sexual abuse in childhood and considered themselves to be in a place of wellness. The thesis synthesises current knowledge in this area and has produced a number of models with direct implications for clinical practice. This unique work has also contributed to advancing theoretical understanding of healing following sexual assault.

Young adults' perceptions of alcohol-involved sexual violence : explicating alcohol expectancies relating to sexual aggression and victimisation

Based on a mixed-methods research program, this thesis identifies the nature and impact of young Australian adults' alcohol-related beliefs relevant to intoxicated sexual aggression and victimisation. The thesis describes the development and validation of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire and demonstrates that sexual violence-related alcohol expectancies are linked to rape blame attributions. Findings show how Alcohol Expectancy Theory can be applied in rape-perception research and illuminate the reasons underlying negative responses to rape disclosure, the underreporting of sexual victimisation, cultural discourse about alcohol and rape, and biased decision-making in the criminal justice system.

Developing improved sexual health education strategies

This thesis examines knowledge levels and sources of information about sex and sexuality in young people in Australia today. This research established what information young people are receiving about sex and sexuality from their four main sources; schools, parents, media, and peers; and how they process that information and apply it to their own lives.

Sexual selection in true fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) : transcriptome and experimental evidences for phytochemicals increasing male competitive ability

In male tephritid fruit flies of the genus Bactrocera, feeding on secondary plant compounds (sensu lato male lures = methyl eugenol, raspberry ketone and zingerone) increases male mating success. Ingested male lures alter the male pheromonal blend, normally making it more attractive to females and this is considered the primary mechanism for the enhanced mating success. However, the male lures raspberry ketone and zingerone are known, across a diverse range of other organisms, to be involved in increasing energy metabolism. If this also occurs in Bactrocera, then this may represent an additional benefit to males as courtship is metabolically expensive and lure feeding may increase a fly's short-term energy. We tested this hypothesis by performing comparative RNA-seq analysis between zingerone-fed and unfed males of Bactrocera tryoni. We also carried out behavioural assays with zingerone- and cuelure-fed males to test whether they became more active. RNA-seq analysis revealed, in zingerone-fed flies, up-regulation of 3183 genes with homologues transcripts to those known to regulate intermale aggression, pheromone synthesis, mating and accessory gland proteins, along with significant enrichment of several energy metabolic pathways and gene ontology terms. Behavioural assays show significant increases in locomotor activity, weight reduction and successful mating after mounting; all direct/indirect measures of increased activity. These results suggest that feeding on lures leads to complex physiological changes, which result in more competitive males. These results do not negate the pheromone effect, but do strongly suggest that the phytochemical-induced sexual selection is governed by both female preference and male competitive mechanisms.

E-health: potential benefits and challenges in providing and accessing sexual health services

BACKGROUND: E-health has become a burgeoning field in which health professionals and health consumers create and seek information. E-health refers to internet-based health care and information delivery and seeks to improve health service locally, regionally and worldwide. E-sexual health presents new opportunities to provide online sexual health services irrespective of gender, age, sexual orientation and location. DISCUSSION: The paper used the dimensions of the RE-AIM model (reach, efficacy, adoption, implementation and maintenance) as a guiding principle to discuss potentials of E-health in providing and accessing sexual health services. There are important issues in relation to utilising and providing online sexual health services. For healthcare providers, e-health can act as an opportunity to enhance their clients' sexual health care by facilitating communication with full privacy and confidentiality, reducing administrative costs and improving efficiency and flexibility as well as market sexual health services and products. Sexual health is one of the common health topics which both younger and older people explore on the internet and they increasingly prefer sexual health education to be interactive, non-discriminate and anonymous. This commentary presents and discusses the benefits of e-sexual health and provides recommendations towards addressing some of the emerging challenges. FUTURE DIRECTIONS: The provision of sexual health services can be enhanced through E-health technology. Doing this can empower consumers to engage with information technology to enhance their sexual health knowledge and quality of life and address some of the stigma associated with diversity in sexualities and sexual health experiences. In addition, e-sexual health may better support and enhance the relationship between consumers and their health care providers across different locations. However, a systematic and focused approach to research and the application of findings in policy and practice is required to ensure that E-health benefits all population groups and the information is current and clinically valid and effective, including preventative approaches for various client groups with diverse needs.

Female greater wax moths reduce sexual display behavior in relation to the potential risk of predation by echolocating bats

Female greater wax moths Galleria mellonella display by wing fanning in response to bursts of ultrasonic calls produced by males. The temporal and spectral characteristics of these calls show some similarities with the echolocation calls of bats that emit frequency-modulated (FM) signals. Female G. mellonella therefore need to distinguish between the attractive signals of male conspecifics, which may lead to mating opportunities, and similar sounds made by predatory bats. We therefore predicted that (1) females would display in response to playbacks of male calls; (2) females would not display in response to playbacks of the calls of echolocating bats (we used the calls of Daubenton's bat Myotis daubentonii as representative of a typical FM echolocating bat); and (3) when presented with male calls and bat calls during the same time block, females would display more when perceived predation risk was lower. We manipulated predation risk in two ways. First, we varied the intensity of bat calls to represent a nearby (high risk) or distant (low risk) bat. Second, we played back calls of bats searching for prey (low risk) and attacking prey (high risk). All predictions were supported, suggesting that female G. mellonella are able to distinguish conspecific male mating calls from bat calls, and that they modify display rate in relation to predation risk. The mechanism (s) by which the moths separate the calls of bat and moth must involve temporal cues. Bat and moth signals differ considerably in duration, and differences in duration could be encoded by the moth's nervous system and used in discrimination.

Using digitally distributed vulgar comedy to reach young men with information about healthy sexual development

Focus groups show that young men do not have available to them the same resources to learn about healthy sexual development as do young women. A collaborative project led by a leading provider of sexuality education aimed to reach young men with information about healthy sexual development by using a genre that focus groups showed they favoured - vulgar comedy. This project raised two important issues. First, comedy is ambivalent - it is by definition not serious or worthy. This challenges health communication, which traditionally favours the clear presentation of correct information. Second, vulgarity can be challenging to the institutions of health communication, which can be concerned that it is inappropriate or offensive. This article addresses these issues and reports on the materials that emerged from the project.

Antibodies against human herpesvirus 8 in black South African patients with cancer

Background Infection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8) has been consistently linked to Kaposi's sarcoma, but its mode of transmission, association with other cancers, and interaction with the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) are largely unknown. Methods Between January 1992 and December 1997, we interviewed 3591 black patients with cancer in Johannesburg and Soweto, South Africa. Blood was tested for antibodies against HIV-1 and HHV-8 in 3344 of the patients. Antibodies against HHV-8 were detected with an indirect immunofluorescence assay. The intensity of the fluorescent signal correlated well with the titers of antibodies (P<0.001). The relations among the presence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, sociodemographic and behavioral factors, type of cancer, and the presence or absence of coexistent HIV-1 infection were examined with the use of unconditional logistic-regression models. Results Among the 3293 subjects with cancers other than Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 32 percent, which did not differ significantly from the standardized seroprevalence among black blood donors. Among these 3293 patients, the prevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 increased with increasing age (P<0.001) and an increasing number of sexual partners (P=0.05) and decreased with increasing years of education (P=0.007); it was not strongly associated with HIV-1 infection. Anti–HHV-8 antibodies were more frequent among black than white blood donors (P<0.001). Among the 51 patients with Kaposi's sarcoma, the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was 83 percent, significantly higher than the prevalence among those without Kaposi's sarcoma (P<0.001). For 16 other specific types of cancer, including multiple myeloma (108 cases) and prostate cancer (202 cases), the variation in the standardized seroprevalence of antibodies against HHV-8 was not remarkable. At a given intensity of fluorescence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies, Kaposi's sarcoma was more frequent among HIV-1–positive patients than among those who were HIV-1–negative (P<0.001). Conclusions Among black patients with cancer in South Africa, the seroprevalence of anti–HHV-8 antibodies is high and is specifically associated with Kaposi's sarcoma, particularly at high titers.