Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.

Complex crystallization dynamics in amorphous germanium observed with dynamic transmission electron microscopy

Crystallization of amorphous germanium (a-Ge) by laser or electron beam heating is a remarkably complex process that involves several distinct modes of crystal growth and the development of intricate microstructural patterns on the nanosecond to ten microsecond time scales. Here we use dynamic transmission electron microscopy (DTEM) to study the fast, complex crystallization dynamics with 10 nm spatial and 15 ns temporal resolution. We have obtained time-resolved real-space images of nanosecond laser-induced crystallization in a-Ge with unprecedentedly high spatial resolution. Direct visualization of the crystallization front allows for time-resolved snapshots of the initiation and roughening of the dendrites on submicrosecond time scales. This growth is followed by a rapid transition to a ledgelike growth mechanism that produces a layered microstructure on a time scale of several microseconds. This study provides insights into the mechanisms governing this complex crystallization process and is a dramatic demonstration of the power of DTEM for studying time-dependent material processes far from equilibrium.

A follow up MRI-based geometry and computational fluid dynamics study of carotid bifurcation

Cardiovascular disease is the leading causes of death in the developed world. Wall shear stress (WSS) is associated with the initiation and progression of atherogenesis. This study combined the recent advances in MR imaging and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and evaluated the patient-specific carotid bifurcation. The patient was followed up for 3 years. The geometry changes (tortuosity, curvature, ICA/CCA area ratios, central to the cross-sectional curvature, maximum stenosis) and the CFD factors (Velocity distribute, Wall Shear Stress (WSS) and Oscillatory Shear Index (OSI)) were compared at different time points.The carotid stenosis was a slight increase in the central to the cross-sectional curvature, and it was minor and variable curvature changes for carotid centerline. The OSI distribution presents ahigh-values in the same region where carotid stenosis and normal border, indicating complex flow and recirculation.The significant geometric changes observed during the follow-up may also cause significant changes in bifurcation hemodynamics.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances havemoved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bioeconomic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. Themethods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.

Agent-based modelling of worker interactions and related impacts on workplace dynamics

This study uses agent based modelling to simulate the worker interactions within a workplace and to investigate how the interactions can have impact on the workplace dynamics. Two new models (Bounded Confidence with Bias model and Relative Agreement with Bias model) are built based on the theoretical foundation of two existing models. A new factor, namely bias, is added into the new models which raises several issues to be studied.

The dynamics of individual teacher autonomy: A case study of teachers' work in a Queensland secondary school

The emphasis on collegiality and collaboration in the literature on teachers' work and school reform has tended to underplay the significance of teacher autonomy. This thesis explores the dynamics of teachers' understandings and experiences of individual teacher autonomy (as contrasted with collective autonomy) in an independent school in Queensland which promoted itself as a 'teachers' school' with a strong commitment to individual teacher autonomy. The research was a case study which drew on methodological signposts from critical, feminist and traditional ethnography. Intensive fieldwork in the school over five months incorporated the ethnographic techniques of observation, interviews and document analysis. Teachers at Thornton College understood their experience of individual autonomy at three interrelated levels--in terms of their work in the classroom, their working life in the school, and their voice in the decision-making processes of the school. They felt that they experienced a great deal of individual autonomy at each of these three levels. These understandings and experiences of autonomy were encumbered or enabled by a range of internal and external stakeholder groups. There were also a number of structural influences (community perceptions, market forces, school size, time and bureaucracy) emerging from the economic, social and political structures in Australian society which influenced the experience of autonomy by teachers. The experience of individual teacher autonomy was constantly shifting, but there were some emergent patterns. Consensus on educational goals and vision, and strong expressions of trust and respect between teachers and stakeholders in the school, characterised the contexts in which teachers felt they experienced high levels of autonomy in their work. The demand for accountability and desire for relatedness motivated stakeholders and structural forces to influence teacher autonomy. Some significant gaps emerged between the rhetoric of a commitment to individual teacher autonomy and decision-making practices in the school, that gave ultimate power to the co-principals. Despite the rhetoric and promotion of non-hierarchical structures and collaborative decision-making processes, many teachers perceived that their experience of individual autonomy remained subject to the exercise of 'partial democracy' by school leaders.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Collaborative learning approach to introduce computational fluid dynamics

This paper presents the design, implementation and evaluation of a collaborative learning activity designed to replace traditional face-to-face lectures in a large classroom. This activity aims to better engage the students with their learning and improve the students’ experience and outcomes. This project is implemented in the Fluid Mechanics unit of the Mechanical Engineering degree at the Queensland University of Technology to introduce students with the concept, terminology and process of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The approach integrates a constructive collaborative assignment which is a key element in the overall quality of teaching and learning, and an integral component of the students’ experience. A detailed survey, given to the students, showed an overall high level of satisfaction. However, the results also highlighted the gap between students’ expectations both for contents and assignment and teacher expectations. Discussions to address this issue are presented in the paper based on a critical reflection.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space–time SIR-based model

Background A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7–December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. Method We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space–time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. Results The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: −0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): −0.370–−0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: −0.003; 95% CI: −0.004–−0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007–0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Conclusions Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period.

Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Understanding the information dynamics of medication administration in residential aged care facilities (RACFs): A prerequisite for design of effective ICT systems

Medication information is a critical part of the information required to ensure residents' safety in the highly collaborative care context of RACFs. Studies report poor medication information as a barrier to improve medication management in RACFs. Research exploring medication work practices in aged care settings remains limited. This study aimed to identify contextual and work practice factors contributing to breakdowns in medication information exchange in RACFs in relation to the medication administration process. We employed non-participant observations and semi-structured interviews to explore information practices in three Australian RACFs. Findings identified inefficiencies due to lack of information timeliness, manual stock management, multiple data transcriptions, inadequate design of essential documents such as administration sheets and a reliance on manual auditing procedures. Technological solutions such as electronic medication administration records offer opportunities to overcome some of the identified problems. However these interventions need to be designed to align with the collaborative team based processes they intend to support.

Dynamics of nitrate-nitrogen removal in experimental stormwater biofilters under intermittent wetting and drying

High concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen degrade the quality of aquatic environments. The primary mechanism by which nitrate-nitrogen is removed (denitrification) requires anoxic conditions and electron donors. While removal of total and ammonium-nitrogen is often high in stormwater biofilters, poor removal or even the release of nitrate-nitrogen in the outflow has often been observed. Five Perspex biofilter columns (94 mm internal diameter) were fabricated with a filter layer that contained 8% organic material. Columns were operated at 875  mm/h 875  mm/h and fed with simulated stormwater with different antecedent dry days (ADDs) and concentrations of nitrate-nitrogen. Samples were collected from the outflow at different time intervals between 2 and 150 min and were tested for nitrate-nitrogen. The removal of nitrate-nitrogen varied during an event from a high removal percentage (60–90%) in the initial outflow that gradually decreased in the first 30 min and settled at 0–15% removal thereafter. This remained consistent during all simulated events independent of the number of ADDs or inflow concentrations. ADDs and previous event feed concentrations affected the outflow nitrate-nitrogen concentration in the first 30 min of the current event. Therefore, from this study it is concluded that denitrification within stormwater biofilters occurs mainly during drying periods rather than wetting periods.

Can current force fields reproduce ring puckering in 2-O-sulfo-α-l-iduronic acid? A molecular dynamics simulation study

The monosaccharide 2-O-sulfo-α-l-iduronic acid (IdoA2S) is one of the major components of glycosaminoglycans. The ability of molecular mechanics force fields to reproduce ring-puckering conformational equilibrium is important for the successful prediction of the free energies of interaction of these carbohydrates with proteins. Here we report unconstrained molecular dynamics simulations of IdoA2S monosaccharide that were carried out to investigate the ability of commonly used force fields to reproduce its ring conformational flexibility in aqueous solution. In particular, the distribution of ring conformer populations of IdoA2S was determined. The GROMOS96 force field with the SPC/E water potential can predict successfully the dominant skew-boat to chair conformational transition of the IdoA2S monosaccharide in aqueous solution. On the other hand, the GLYCAM06 force field with the TIP3P water potential sampled transitional conformations between the boat and chair forms. Simulations using the GROMOS96 force field showed no pseudorotational equilibrium fluctuations and hence no inter-conversion between the boat and twist boat ring conformers. Calculations of theoretical proton NMR coupling constants showed that the GROMOS96 force field can predict the skew-boat to chair conformational ratio in good agreement with the experiment, whereas GLYCAM06 shows worse agreement. The omega rotamer distribution about the C5–C6 bond was predicted by both force fields to have torsions around 10°, 190°, and 360°.

Molecular dynamics simulations of CXCL-8 and its interactions with a receptor peptide, heparin fragments, and sulfated linked cyclitols

CXCL-8 (Interleukin 8) is a CXC chemokine with a central role in the human immune response. We have undertaken extensive in silico analyses to elucidate the interactions of CXCL-8 with its various binding partners, which are crucial for its biological function. Sequence and structure analyses showed that residues in the thirdq β-sheet and basic residues in the heparin binding site are highly variable, while residues in the second β-sheet are highly conserved. Molecular dynamics simulations in aqueous solution of dimeric CXCL-8 have been performed with starting geometries from both X-ray and NMR structures showed shearing movements between the two antiparallel C-terminal helices. Dynamic conservation analyses of these simulations agreed with experimental data indicating that structural differences between the two structures at quaternary level arise from changes in the secondary structure of the N-terminal loop, the 310-helix, the 30s, 40s, and 50s loops and the third β-sheet, resulting in a different interhelical separation. Nevertheless, the observation of these different states indicates that CXCL-8 has the potential to undergo conformational changes, and it seems likely that this feature is relevant to the mode of binding of glycosaminoglycan (GAG) mimetics such as cyclitols. Simulations of the receptor peptide fragment−CXCL-8 complex identified several specific interactions of the receptor peptide with CXCL-8 that could be exploited in the structure-based design of competitive peptides and nonpeptidic molecules targeting CXCL-8 for combating inflammatory diseases. Simulations of the CXCL-8 dimer complexed with a 24-mer heparin fragment and of the CXCL-8−receptor peptide complex revealed that Arg60, Lys64, and Arg68 in the dimer bind to cyclitols in a horseshoe pattern, defining a region which is spatially distinct from the receptor binding site. There appears to be an optimum number of sulfates and an optimum length of alkyl spacers required for the interaction of cyclitol inhibitors with the dimeric form of CXCL-8. Calculation of the binding affinities of cyclitol inhibitors reflected satisfactorily the ranking of experimentally determined inhibitory potencies. The findings of these molecular modeling studies will help in the search for inhibitors which can modulate various CXCL-8 biological activities and serve as an excellent model system to study CXC-inhibitor interactions.

Molecular dynamics simulation of the phosphorylation-induced conformational changes of a tau peptide fragment

Aggregation of the microtubule associated protein tau (MAPT) within neurons of the brain is the leading cause of tauopathies such as Alzheimer's disease. MAPT is a phospho-protein that is selectively phosphorylated by a number of kinases in vivo to perform its biological function. However, it may become pathogenically hyperphosphorylated, causing aggregation into paired helical filaments and neurofibrillary tangles. The phosphorylation induced conformational change on a peptide of MAPT (htau225−250) was investigated by performing molecular dynamics simulations with different phosphorylation patterns of the peptide (pThr231 and/or pSer235) in different simulation conditions to determine the effect of ionic strength and phosphate charge. All phosphorylation patterns were found to disrupt a nascent terminal β-sheet pattern (226VAVVR230 and 244QTAPVP249), replacing it with a range of structures. The double pThr231/pSer235 phosphorylation pattern at experimental ionic strength resulted in the best agreement with NMR structural characterization, with the observation of a transient α-helix (239AKSRLQT245). PPII helical conformations were only found sporadically throughout the simulations. Proteins 2014; 82:1907–1923. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.