Optimal sign tests for data from ranked set samples

This paper considers the one-sample sign test for data obtained from general ranked set sampling when the number of observations for each rank are not necessarily the same, and proposes a weighted sign test because observations with different ranks are not identically distributed. The optimal weight for each observation is distribution free and only depends on its associated rank. It is shown analytically that (1) the weighted version always improves the Pitman efficiency for all distributions; and (2) the optimal design is to select the median from each ranked set.

Induced smoothing for rank regression with censored survival times

Adaptions of weighted rank regression to the accelerated failure time model for censored survival data have been successful in yielding asymptotically normal estimates and flexible weighting schemes to increase statistical efficiencies. However, for only one simple weighting scheme, Gehan or Wilcoxon weights, are estimating equations guaranteed to be monotone in parameter components, and even in this case are step functions, requiring the equivalent of linear programming for computation. The lack of smoothness makes standard error or covariance matrix estimation even more difficult. An induced smoothing technique overcame these difficulties in various problems involving monotone but pure jump estimating equations, including conventional rank regression. The present paper applies induced smoothing to the Gehan-Wilcoxon weighted rank regression for the accelerated failure time model, for the more difficult case of survival time data subject to censoring, where the inapplicability of permutation arguments necessitates a new method of estimating null variance of estimating functions. Smooth monotone parameter estimation and rapid, reliable standard error or covariance matrix estimation is obtained.

Estimating equations with nonignorably missing response data

Troxel, Lipsitz, and Brennan (1997, Biometrics 53, 857-869) considered parameter estimation from survey data with nonignorable nonresponse and proposed weighted estimating equations to remove the biases in the complete-case analysis that ignores missing observations. This paper suggests two alternative modifications for unbiased estimation of regression parameters when a binary outcome is potentially observed at successive time points. The weighting approach of Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao (1995, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 106-121) is also modified to obtain unbiased estimating functions. The suggested estimating functions are unbiased only when the missingness probability is correctly specified, and misspecification of the missingness model will result in biases in the estimates. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of different methods when the covariate is binary or normal. For the simulation models used, the relative efficiency of the two new methods to the weighting methods is about 3.0 for the slope parameter and about 2.0 for the intercept parameter when the covariate is continuous and the missingness probability is correctly specified. All methods produce substantial biases in the estimates when the missingness model is misspecified or underspecified. Analysis of data from a medical survey illustrates the use and possible differences of these estimating functions.

Estimating the efficiency of a small beam trawl for sampling tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and P. semisulcatus in seagrass by removal experiments

The efficiency with which a small beam trawl (1 x 0.5 m mouth) sampled postlarvae and juveniles of tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and P, semisulcatus at night was estimated in 3 tropical seagrass communities (dominated by Thalassia hemprichii, Syringodium isoetifolium and Enhalus acoroides, respectively) in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria in northern Australia. An area of seagrass (40 x 3 m) was enclosed by a net and the beam trawl was repeatedly hand-hauled over the substrate. Net efficiency (q) was calculated using 4 methods: the unweighted Leslie, weighted Leslie, DeLury and Maximum-likelihood (ML) methods. The Maximum-likelihood is the preferred method for estimating efficiency because it makes the fewest assumptions and is not affected by zero catches. The major difference in net efficiencies was between postlarvae (mean ML q +/- 95% confidence limits = 0.66 +/- 0.16) and juveniles of both species (mean q for juveniles in water less than or equal to 1.0 m deep = 0.47 +/- 0.05), i.e. the beam trawl was more efficient at capturing postlarvae than juveniles. There was little difference in net efficiency for P, esculentus between seagrass types (T, hemprichii versus S. isoetifolium), even though the biomass and morphologies of seagrass in these communities differed greatly (biomasses were 54 and 204 g m(-2), respectively). The efficiency of the net appeared to be the same for juveniles of the 2 species in shallow water, but was lower for juvenile P, semisulcatus at high tide when the water was deeper (1.6 to 1.9 m) (0.35 +/- 0.08). The lower efficiency near the time of high tide is possibly because the prawns are more active at high than low tide, and can also escape above the net. Factors affecting net efficiency and alternative methods of estimating net efficiency are discussed.

Systematic analysis of changes in cannabis use among participants in control conditions of randomised controlled trials

Introduction Cannabis remains the most used illegal substance across the globe, and negative outcomes and disorders are common. A spotlight therefore falls on reductions in cannabis use in people with cannabis use disorder. Current estimates of unassisted cessation or reduction in cannabis use rely on community surveys, and few studies focus on individuals with disorder. A key interest of services and researchers is to estimate effect size of reductions in consumption among treatment seekers who do not obtain treatment. Effects within waiting list or information-only control conditions of randomised controlled trials offer an opportunity to study this question. Method This paper examines the extent of reductions in days of cannabis use in the control groups of randomised controlled trials on treatment of cannabis use disorders. A systematic literature search was performed to identify trials that reported days of cannabis use in the previous 30 (or equivalent). Results Since all but one of the eight identified studies had delayed treatment controls, results could only be summarised across 2–4 months. Average weighted days of use in the previous 30 days fell from 24.5 to 19.9, and a meta-analysis using a random effects model showed an average reduction of 0.442 SD. However, every study had at least one significant methodological issue. Conclusions While further high-quality data is needed to confirm the observed effects, these results provide a baseline from which researchers and practitioners can estimate the extent of change required to detect effects of cannabis treatments in services or treatment trials.

Magnetic resonance microimaging of cancer cell spheroid constructs

BACKGROUND Hydrogel-based cell cultures are excellent tools for studying physiological events occurring in the growth and proliferation of cells, including cancer cells. Diffusion magnetic resonance is a physical technique that has been widely used for the characterisation of biological systems as well as hydrogels. In this work, we applied diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to hydrogel-based cultures of human ovarian cancer cells. METHODS Diffusion-weighted spin-echo MRI measurements were used to obtain spatially-resolved maps of apparent diffusivities for hydrogel samples with different compositions, cell loads and drug (Taxol) treatment regimes. The samples were then characterised using their diffusivity histograms, mean diffusivities and the respective standard deviations, and pairwise Mann-Whitney tests. The elastic moduli of the samples were determined using mechanical compression testing. RESULTS The mean apparent diffusivity of the hydrogels was sensitive to the polymer content, cell load and Taxol treatment. For a given sample composition, the mean apparent diffusivity and the elastic modulus of the hydrogels exhibited a negative correlation. CONCLUSIONS Diffusivity of hydrogel-based cancer cell culture constructs is sensitive to both cell proliferation and Taxol treatment. This suggests that diffusion-weighted imaging is a promising technique for non-invasive monitoring of cancer cell proliferation in hydrogel-based, cellularly-sparse 3D cell cultures. The negative correlation between mean apparent diffusivity and elastic modulus suggests that the diffusion coefficient is indicative of the average density of the physical microenvironment within the hydrogel construct.

The genetic association between personality and major depression or bipolar disorder. A polygenic score analysis using genome-wide association data

The relationship between major depressive disorder (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD) remains controversial. Previous research has reported differences and similarities in risk factors for MDD and BD, such as predisposing personality traits. For example, high neuroticism is related to both disorders, whereas openness to experience is specific for BD. This study examined the genetic association between personality and MDD and BD by applying polygenic scores for neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experience, agreeableness and conscientiousness to both disorders. Polygenic scores reflect the weighted sum of multiple single-nucleotide polymorphism alleles associated with the trait for an individual and were based on a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for personality traits including 13,835 subjects. Polygenic scores were tested for MDD in the combined Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN-MDD) and MDD2000+ samples (N=8921) and for BD in the combined Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder and Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium samples (N=6329) using logistic regression analyses. At the phenotypic level, personality dimensions were associated with MDD and BD. Polygenic neuroticism scores were significantly positively associated with MDD, whereas polygenic extraversion scores were significantly positively associated with BD. The explained variance of MDD and BD, approximately 0.1%, was highly comparable to the variance explained by the polygenic personality scores in the corresponding personality traits themselves (between 0.1 and 0.4%). This indicates that the proportions of variance explained in mood disorders are at the upper limit of what could have been expected. This study suggests shared genetic risk factors for neuroticism and MDD on the one hand and for extraversion and BD on the other.

International contact lens prescribing in 2014

Since the late 1990s, the International Contact Lens Prescribing Survey Consortium has prospectively gathered information about 285,000 contact lens fits from more than 50 countries. This article presents our 14th annual summary of current trends published in Contact Lens Spectrum. With only minor differences in the distribution of our surveys among markets, we have continued to adopt the same approach throughout the past 18 years. Through national coordinators, we approach contact lens prescribers in each country and ask them to record information about the first 10 patients whom they fit with contact lenses after receipt of our survey form. The information collected is generic, and respondents are weighted to reflect the volume of contact lens fits undertaken by each. For this 2014 report, we present information about 25,179 contact lens fits from 32 countries...

International contact lens prescribing in 2015

We have been collecting data on worldwide contact lens prescribing habits for almost 20 years. Over this time period, we have amassed prospective information about 315,000 contact lens fits in 59 countries. This article marks our 15th report in Contact Lens Spectrum and features a breakdown of more than 23,000 contact lens fits in 34 markets. As in previous years, our international network of coordinators distributed survey forms to eyecare practitioners in their market who then recorded generic information about the first 10 patients fit with contact lenses after receipt. Information is gathered about patient age and gender; whether the contact lenses are prescribed as a new fit or a refit; contact lens material, design, and replacement frequency; number of intended days per week of use; wearing modality; and care system. Contact lens fits are weighted to reflect the number of fits undertaken by each eyecare practitioner. The study data were entered and processed at the University of Manchester and at the University of Waterloo.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

Procurement-related critical factors for briefing in public-private partnership projects: Case of Hong Kong

Public private partnerships (PPP) are widely used for construction project procurement. However, the briefing stage of PPP projects has been largely overlooked, although it has a far-reaching influence throughout the project life cycle. In response, we rectify this by exploring the critical factors involved. A set of 15 procurement-related factors are first identified from the existing literature. Then the effects of four background variables on the factors are tested with Hong Kong government data by an exploratory factor analysis extracting four major dimensions. The relationships between these dimensions and background variables indicate the need to take the background variables into account when ranking the factors. The ranking of the factors is then obtained by considering their weighted importance. Finally, the final practical value of the results is discussed.

Adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition for frog call classification

Environmental changes have put great pressure on biological systems leading to the rapid decline of biodiversity. To monitor this change and protect biodiversity, animal vocalizations have been widely explored by the aid of deploying acoustic sensors in the field. Consequently, large volumes of acoustic data are collected. However, traditional manual methods that require ecologists to physically visit sites to collect biodiversity data are both costly and time consuming. Therefore it is essential to develop new semi-automated and automated methods to identify species in automated audio recordings. In this study, a novel feature extraction method based on wavelet packet decomposition is proposed for frog call classification. After syllable segmentation, the advertisement call of each frog syllable is represented by a spectral peak track, from which track duration, dominant frequency and oscillation rate are calculated. Then, a k-means clustering algorithm is applied to the dominant frequency, and the centroids of clustering results are used to generate the frequency scale for wavelet packet decomposition (WPD). Next, a new feature set named adaptive frequency scaled wavelet packet decomposition sub-band cepstral coefficients is extracted by performing WPD on the windowed frog calls. Furthermore, the statistics of all feature vectors over each windowed signal are calculated for producing the final feature set. Finally, two well-known classifiers, a k-nearest neighbour classifier and a support vector machine classifier, are used for classification. In our experiments, we use two different datasets from Queensland, Australia (18 frog species from commercial recordings and field recordings of 8 frog species from James Cook University recordings). The weighted classification accuracy with our proposed method is 99.5% and 97.4% for 18 frog species and 8 frog species respectively, which outperforms all other comparable methods.

Prevention and management of foot problems in diabetes: A summary guidance for daily practice 2015, based on the IWGDF Guidance Documents

In this 'Summary Guidance for Daily Practice', we describe the basic principles of prevention and management of foot problems in persons with diabetes. This summary is based on the International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot (IWGDF) Guidance 2015. There are five key elements that underpin prevention of foot problems: (1) identification of the at-risk foot; (2) regular inspection and examination of the at-risk foot; (3) education of patient, family and healthcare providers; (4) routine wearing of appropriate footwear, and; (5) treatment of pre-ulcerative signs. Healthcare providers should follow a standardized and consistent strategy for evaluating a foot wound, as this will guide further evaluation and therapy. The following items must be addressed: type, cause, site and depth, and signs of infection. There are seven key elements that underpin ulcer treatment: (1) relief of pressure and protection of the ulcer; (2) restoration of skin perfusion; (3) treatment of infection; (4) metabolic control and treatment of co-morbidity; (5) local wound care; (6) education for patient and relatives, and; (7) prevention of recurrence. Finally, successful efforts to prevent and manage foot problems in diabetes depend upon a well-organized team, using a holistic approach in which the ulcer is seen as a sign of multi-organ disease, and integrating the various disciplines involved.

Assessment of signs of foot infection in diabetes patients using photographic foot imaging and infrared thermography

Background Patients with diabetic foot disease require frequent screening to prevent complications and may be helped through telemedical home monitoring. Within this context, the goal was to determine the validity and reliability of assessing diabetic foot infection using photographic foot imaging and infrared thermography. Subjects and Methods For 38 patients with diabetes who presented with a foot infection or were admitted to the hospital with a foot-related complication, photographs of the plantar foot surface using a photographic imaging device and temperature data from six plantar regions using an infrared thermometer were obtained. A temperature difference between feet of > 2.2 °C defined a ''hotspot.'' Two independent observers assessed each foot for presence of foot infection, both live (using the Perfusion-Extent-Depth- Infection-Sensation classification) and from photographs 2 and 4 weeks later (for presence of erythema and ulcers). Agreement in diagnosis between live assessment and (the combination of ) photographic assessment and temperature recordings was calculated. Results Diagnosis of infection from photographs was specific (> 85%) but not very sensitive (< 60%). Diagnosis based on hotspots present was sensitive (> 90%) but not very specific (<25%). Diagnosis based on the combination of photographic and temperature assessments was both sensitive (> 60%) and specific (> 79%). Intra-observer agreement between photographic assessments was good (Cohen's j = 0.77 and 0.52 for both observers). Conclusions Diagnosis of foot infection in patients with diabetes seems valid and reliable using photographic imaging in combination with infrared thermography. This supports the intended use of these modalities for the home monitoring of high-risk patients with diabetes to facilitate early diagnosis of signs of foot infection.

Documenting the inevitable: Voting behaviour at the 2013 Australian election

This chapter uses data from the 2013 Australian Election Study (AES), conducted by Clive Bean, Ian McAllister, Juliet Pietsch and Rachel Gibson (Bean et al. 2014) to investigate political attitudes and voting behaviour in the election. The study was funded by the Australian Research Council and involved a national survey of political attitudes and behaviour using a self-completion questionnaire mailed to respondents on the day before the 7 September election. The sample was a systematic random sample of enrolled voters throughout Australia, drawn by the Australian Electoral Commission. Respondents were given the option of returning the completed questionnaire by reply-paid mail or completing the survey online. Non-respondents were sent several follow-up mailings and the final sample size was 3955, representing a response rate of 34 per cent. The data were weighted to reflect population parameters for gender, age, state and vote.