Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Current status of pharmacogenomics testing for anti-tumor drug therapies : approaches to non-melanoma skin cancer

Skin cancer is one of the most commonly occurring cancer types, with substantial social, physical, and financial burdens on both individuals and societies. Although the role of UV light in initiating skin cancer development has been well characterized, genetic studies continue to show that predisposing factors can influence an individual's susceptibility to skin cancer and response to treatment. In the future, it is hoped that genetic profiles, comprising a number of genetic markers collectively involved in skin cancer susceptibility and response to treatment or prognosis, will aid in more accurately informing practitioners' choices of treatment. Individualized treatment based on these profiles has the potential to increase the efficacy of treatments, saving both time and money for the patient by avoiding the need for extensive or repeated treatment. Increased treatment responses may in turn prevent recurrence of skin cancers, reducing the burden of this disease on society. Currently existing pharmacogenomic tests, such as those that assess variation in the metabolism of the anticancer drug fluorouracil, have the potential to reduce the toxic effects of anti-tumor drugs used in the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) by determining individualized appropriate dosage. If the savings generated by reducing adverse events negate the costs of developing these tests, pharmacogenomic testing may increasingly inform personalized NMSC treatment.

Scene invariant multi camera crowd counting

Automated crowd counting has become an active field of computer vision research in recent years. Existing approaches are scene-specific, as they are designed to operate in the single camera viewpoint that was used to train the system. Real world camera networks often span multiple viewpoints within a facility, including many regions of overlap. This paper proposes a novel scene invariant crowd counting algorithm that is designed to operate across multiple cameras. The approach uses camera calibration to normalise features between viewpoints and to compensate for regions of overlap. This compensation is performed by constructing an 'overlap map' which provides a measure of how much an object at one location is visible within other viewpoints. An investigation into the suitability of various feature types and regression models for scene invariant crowd counting is also conducted. The features investigated include object size, shape, edges and keypoints. The regression models evaluated include neural networks, K-nearest neighbours, linear and Gaussian process regresion. Our experiments demonstrate that accurate crowd counting was achieved across seven benchmark datasets, with optimal performance observed when all features were used and when Gaussian process regression was used. The combination of scene invariance and multi camera crowd counting is evaluated by training the system on footage obtained from the QUT camera network and testing it on three cameras from the PETS 2009 database. Highly accurate crowd counting was observed with a mean relative error of less than 10%. Our approach enables a pre-trained system to be deployed on a new environment without any additional training, bringing the field one step closer toward a 'plug and play' system.

Optimal catalyst thickness in titanium dioxide fixed film reactors: Mathematical modelling and experimental validation

The use of immobilised TiO2 for the purification of polluted water streams introduces the necessity to evaluate the effect of mechanisms such as the transport of pollutants from the bulk of the liquid to the catalyst surface and the transport phenomena inside the porous film. Experimental results of the effects of film thickness on the observed reaction rate for both liquid-side and support-side illumination are here compared with the predictions of a one-dimensional mathematical model of the porous photocatalytic slab. Good agreement was observed between the experimentally obtained photodegradation of phenol and its by-products, and the corresponding model predictions. The results have confirmed that an optimal catalyst thickness exists and, for the films employed here, is 5 μm. Furthermore, the modelling results have highlighted the fact that porosity, together with the intrinsic reaction kinetics are the parameters controlling the photocatalytic activity of the film. The former by influencing transport phenomena and light absorption characteristics, the latter by naturally dictating the rate of reaction.

Testing the psychometric properties of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure using Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis in an Australian registered nurse population

A cross-sectional survey was conducted, and the construct validity and reliability of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure in an Australian sample of registered nurses were examined. Nurses were randomly selected from the database of an Australian nursing organization. The original 33 items of the Brisbane Practice Environment Measure were utilized to inform the psychometric properties using confirmatory factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha was 0.938 for the total scale and ranged 0.657–0.887 for the subscales. A five-factor structure of the measure was confirmed, χ2 = 944.622, (P < 0.01), χ2/d.f. ratio = 2.845, Tucker Lewis Index 0.929, Root Mean Square Error = 0.061 and Comparative Fit Index = 0.906. The selected 28 items of the measure proved reliable and valid in measuring effects of the practice environment upon Australian nurses. The implications are that regular measurement of the practice environment using these 28 items might assist in the development of strategies which might improve job satisfaction and retention of registered nurses in Australia.

The "caring experience": testing the psychometric properties of the Caring Efficacy Scale

The purpose of the study was to undertake rigorous psychometric testing of the Caring Efficacy Scale in a sample of Registered Nurses. A cross-sectional survey of 2000 registered nurses was undertaken. The Caring Efficacy Scale was utilised to inform the psychometric properties of the selected items of the Caring Efficacy Scale. Cronbach’s Alpha identified reliability of the data. Exploratory Factor Analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis were undertaken to validate the factors. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the development of two factors; Confidence to Care and Doubts and Concerns. The Caring Efficacy Scale has undergone rigorous psychometric testing, affording evidence of internal consistency and goodness-of-fit indices within satisfactory ranges. The Caring Efficacy Scale is valid for use in an Australian population of registered nurses. The scale can be used as a subscale or total score reflective of self-efficacy in nursing. This scale may assist nursing educators to predict levels of caring efficacy.

Interactions between cars and motorcycles testing underlying concepts through integration of on-road and simulator studies

We conducted on-road and simulator studies to explore the mechanisms underpinning driver-rider crashes. In Study 1 the verbal protocols of 40 drivers and riders were assessed at intersections as part of a 15km on-road route in Melbourne. Network analysis of the verbal transcripts highlighted key differences in the situation awareness of drivers and riders at intersections. In a further study using a driving simulator we examined in car drivers the influence of acute exposure to motorcyclists. In a 15 min simulated drive, 40 drivers saw either no motorcycles or a high number of motorcycles in the surrounding traffic. In a subsequent 45-60 min drive, drivers were asked to detect motorcycles in traffic. The proportion of motorcycles was manipulated so that there was either a high (120) or low (6) number of motorcycles during the drive. Those drivers exposed to a high number of motorcycles were significantly faster at detecting motorcycles. Fundamentally, the incompatible situation awareness at intersections by drivers and riders underpins the conflicts. Study 2 offers some suggestion for a countermeasure here, although more research around schema and exposure training to support safer interactions is needed.

Library Research Support in developing, testing and promoting an open cyberinfrastructure

QUT Library continues to rethink research support with eResearch as a primary driver. The support to the development of the Lens, an open global cyberinfrastructure, has been especially important in the light of technology transfer promotion, and partly in the response to researchers’ needs in following the innovation landscapes not only within the scientific but also patent literature. The Lens http://www.lens.org/lens/ project makes innovation more efficient, fair, transparent and inclusive. It is a joint effort between Cambia http://www.cambia.org.au and Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The Lens serves more than 84 million patent documents in the world as open, annotatable digital public goods that are integrated with scholarly and technical literature along with regulatory and business data. Users can link from search results to visualization and document clusters; from a patent document description to its full-text; from there, if applicable, the sequence data can also be found. Figure 1 shows a BLAST Alignment (DNA) using the Lens. A unique feature of the Lens is the ability to embed search and BLAST results into blogs and websites, and provide real-time updates to them. PatSeq Explorer http://www.lens.org/lens/bio/patseqexplorer allows users to navigate patent sequences that map onto the human genome and in the future, many other genomes. PatSeq Explorer offers three level views for the sequence information and links each group of sequences at the chromosomal level to their corresponding patent documents in the Lens. By integrating sequence and patent search and document clustering capabilities, users can now understand the big and small details on the true extent and scope of genetic sequence patents. QUT Library supported Cambia in developing, testing and promoting the Lens. This poster demonstrates QUT Library’s provision of best practice and holistic research support to a research group and how QUT Librarians have acquired new capabilities to meet the needs of the researchers beyond traditional research support practices.

Random breath testing in Queensland and Western Australia : Examination of how the random breath testing rate influences alcohol related traffic crash rates

In this paper we explore the relationship between monthly random breath testing (RBT) rates (per 1000 licensed drivers) and alcohol-related traffic crash (ARTC) rates over time, across two Australian states: Queensland and Western Australia. We analyse the RBT, ARTC and licensed driver rates across 12 years; however, due to administrative restrictions, we model ARTC rates against RBT rates for the period July 2004 to June 2009. The Queensland data reveals that the monthly ARTC rate is almost flat over the five year period. Based on the results of the analysis, an average of 5.5 ARTCs per 100,000 licensed drivers are observed across the study period. For the same period, the monthly rate of RBTs per 1000 licensed drivers is observed to be decreasing across the study with the results of the analysis revealing no significant variations in the data. The comparison between Western Australia and Queensland shows that Queensland's ARTC monthly percent change (MPC) is 0.014 compared to the MPC of 0.47 for Western Australia. While Queensland maintains a relatively flat ARTC rate, the ARTC rate in Western Australia is increasing. Our analysis reveals an inverse relationship between ARTC RBT rates, that for every 10% increase in the percentage of RBTs to licensed driver there is a 0.15 decrease in the rate of ARTCs per 100,000 licenced drivers. Moreover, in Western Australia, if the 2011 ratio of 1:2 (RBTs to annual number of licensed drivers) were to double to a ratio of 1:1, we estimate the number of monthly ARTCs would reduce by approximately 15. Based on these findings we believe that as the number of RBTs conducted increases the number of drivers willing to risk being detected for drinking driving decreases, because the perceived risk of being detected is considered greater. This is turn results in the number of ARTCs diminishing. The results of this study provide an important evidence base for policy decisions for RBT operations.

Large-scale testing of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

Application of 'advanced analysis' methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A research project has been conducted with the aim of developing concentrated plasticity methods suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections. A series of large-scale tests were performed in order to provide experimental results for verification of the new analytical models. Each of the test frames comprised non-compact sections, and exhibited significant local buckling behaviour prior to failure. This paper presents details of the test program including the test specimens, set-up and instrumentation, procedure, and results.

A novel iterative method for simulating patient-specific optimal deformation and fit of fracture fixation plates

This paper proposes a new iterative method to achieve an optimally fitting plate for preoperative planning purposes. The proposed method involves integration of four commercially available software tools, Matlab, Rapidform2006, SolidWorks and ANSYS, each performing specific tasks to obtain a plate shape that fits optimally for an individual tibia and is mechanically safe. A typical challenge when crossing multiple platforms is to ensure correct data transfer. We present an example of the implementation of the proposed method to demonstrate successful data transfer between the four platforms and the feasibility of the method.

The safety profile of perflutren microsphere contrast echocardiography during rest and stress imaging : results from an Australian multicentre cohort

Background Contrast enhanced echocardiography (CEE) is utilised when sub-optimal image quality results in non-diagnostic echocardiograms. However, there have been numerous safety notices issued by regulatory authorities regarding rare but potentially serious adverse reactions (AR). This multi-centre, retrospective analysis was performed to assess the short-term safety of CEE in a broad range of indications. Methods All CEE performed over 58 months at three institutions were assessed for AR within 30 min. Results A total of 5956 CEE were performed in 5576 patients. A total of 4903 were stress CEE and 1053 resting CCE.Bolus administration in 5719, infusion in 237 cases; 89.9% of CCE were outpatients. Commonest CEE indication was functional stress testing (82.3%). There were 16 AR related to CEE (0.27%). All AR were mild, transient and all patients made a full recovery. No cases of serious anaphylaxis or death within 30 min of contrast administration. Comparing those with and without an AR, there were no significant differences in age, gender, BMI, LVEF, patient location, exam type or RVSP. There was a slightly increased likelihood of an AR during infusion versus bolus dosing (p = 0.02). Conclusion CEE is a safe investigation in a broad range of indications and clinical scenarios. AR are very rare, mild and transient.

Growing biodiverse carbon-rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co-benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time-frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above-ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits in order to achieve systematically maximal co-benefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision-making rules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio-economic models in order to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost-effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration and other socio-economic co-benefits under global change.