A comparative study of the methods of inclusion of PMU current phasor measurements in a hybrid state estimator

The paper compares three different methods of inclusion of current phasor measurements by phasor measurement units (PMUs) in the conventional power system state estimator. For each of the three methods, comprehensive formulation of the hybrid state estimator in the presence of conventional and PMU measurements is presented. The performance of the state estimator in the presence of conventional measurements and optimally placed PMUs is evaluated in terms of convergence characteristics and estimator accuracy. Test results on the IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 300-bus systems are analyzed to determine the best possible method of inclusion of PMU current phasor measurements.

Study of wheel-rail impact at insulated rail joint through experimental and numerical methods

As part of an ongoing research on the development of a longer life insulated rail joint (IRJ), this paper reports a field experiment and a simplified 2D numerical modelling for the purpose of investigating the behaviour of rail web in the vicinity of endpost in an insulated rail joint (IRJ) due to wheel passages. A simplified 2D plane stress finite element model is used to simulate the wheel-rail rolling contact impact at IRJ. This model is validated using data from a strain gauged IRJ that was installed in a heavy haul network; data in terms of the vertical and shear strains at specific positions of the IRJ during train passing were captured and compared with the results of the FE model. The comparison indicates a satisfactory agreement between the FE model and the field testing. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the experimental and numerical analyses reported in this paper provide a valuable datum for developing further insight into the behaviour of IRJ under wheel impacts.

Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Alternative analytical methods for the identification of cancer-related symptom clusters

Advances in symptom management strategies through a better understanding of cancer symptom clusters depend on the identification of symptom clusters that are valid and reliable. The purpose of this exploratory research was to investigate alternative analytical approaches to identify symptom clusters for patients with cancer, using readily accessible statistical methods, and to justify which methods of identification may be appropriate for this context. Three studies were undertaken: (1) a systematic review of the literature, to identify analytical methods commonly used for symptom cluster identification for cancer patients; (2) a secondary data analysis to identify symptom clusters and compare alternative methods, as a guide to best practice approaches in cross-sectional studies; and (3) a secondary data analysis to investigate the stability of symptom clusters over time. The systematic literature review identified, in 10 years prior to March 2007, 13 cross-sectional studies implementing multivariate methods to identify cancer related symptom clusters. The methods commonly used to group symptoms were exploratory factor analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and principal components analysis. Common factor analysis methods were recommended as the best practice cross-sectional methods for cancer symptom cluster identification. A comparison of alternative common factor analysis methods was conducted, in a secondary analysis of a sample of 219 ambulatory cancer patients with mixed diagnoses, assessed within one month of commencing chemotherapy treatment. Principal axis factoring, unweighted least squares and image factor analysis identified five consistent symptom clusters, based on patient self-reported distress ratings of 42 physical symptoms. Extraction of an additional cluster was necessary when using alpha factor analysis to determine clinically relevant symptom clusters. The recommended approaches for symptom cluster identification using nonmultivariate normal data were: principal axis factoring or unweighted least squares for factor extraction, followed by oblique rotation; and use of the scree plot and Minimum Average Partial procedure to determine the number of factors. In contrast to other studies which typically interpret pattern coefficients alone, in these studies symptom clusters were determined on the basis of structure coefficients. This approach was adopted for the stability of the results as structure coefficients are correlations between factors and symptoms unaffected by the correlations between factors. Symptoms could be associated with multiple clusters as a foundation for investigating potential interventions. The stability of these five symptom clusters was investigated in separate common factor analyses, 6 and 12 months after chemotherapy commenced. Five qualitatively consistent symptom clusters were identified over time (Musculoskeletal-discomforts/lethargy, Oral-discomforts, Gastrointestinaldiscomforts, Vasomotor-symptoms, Gastrointestinal-toxicities), but at 12 months two additional clusters were determined (Lethargy and Gastrointestinal/digestive symptoms). Future studies should include physical, psychological, and cognitive symptoms. Further investigation of the identified symptom clusters is required for validation, to examine causality, and potentially to suggest interventions for symptom management. Future studies should use longitudinal analyses to investigate change in symptom clusters, the influence of patient related factors, and the impact on outcomes (e.g., daily functioning) over time.

Novel analytical and numerical methods for solving fractional dynamical systems

During the past three decades, the subject of fractional calculus (that is, calculus of integrals and derivatives of arbitrary order) has gained considerable popularity and importance, mainly due to its demonstrated applications in numerous diverse and widespread fields in science and engineering. For example, fractional calculus has been successfully applied to problems in system biology, physics, chemistry and biochemistry, hydrology, medicine, and finance. In many cases these new fractional-order models are more adequate than the previously used integer-order models, because fractional derivatives and integrals enable the description of the memory and hereditary properties inherent in various materials and processes that are governed by anomalous diffusion. Hence, there is a growing need to find the solution behaviour of these fractional differential equations. However, the analytic solutions of most fractional differential equations generally cannot be obtained. As a consequence, approximate and numerical techniques are playing an important role in identifying the solution behaviour of such fractional equations and exploring their applications. The main objective of this thesis is to develop new effective numerical methods and supporting analysis, based on the finite difference and finite element methods, for solving time, space and time-space fractional dynamical systems involving fractional derivatives in one and two spatial dimensions. A series of five published papers and one manuscript in preparation will be presented on the solution of the space fractional diffusion equation, space fractional advectiondispersion equation, time and space fractional diffusion equation, time and space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a linear or non-linear source term, and fractional cable equation involving two time fractional derivatives, respectively. One important contribution of this thesis is the demonstration of how to choose different approximation techniques for different fractional derivatives. Special attention has been paid to the Riesz space fractional derivative, due to its important application in the field of groundwater flow, system biology and finance. We present three numerical methods to approximate the Riesz space fractional derivative, namely the L1/ L2-approximation method, the standard/shifted Gr¨unwald method, and the matrix transform method (MTM). The first two methods are based on the finite difference method, while the MTM allows discretisation in space using either the finite difference or finite element methods. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence of the Riesz fractional derivative and the fractional Laplacian operator under homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions – a result that had not previously been established. This result justifies the aforementioned use of the MTM to approximate the Riesz fractional derivative. After spatial discretisation, the time-space fractional partial differential equation is transformed into a system of fractional-in-time differential equations. We then investigate numerical methods to handle time fractional derivatives, be they Caputo type or Riemann-Liouville type. This leads to new methods utilising either finite difference strategies or the Laplace transform method for advancing the solution in time. The stability and convergence of our proposed numerical methods are also investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out in support of our theoretical analysis. We also emphasise that the numerical methods we develop are applicable for many other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Analysis of distrubances in large interconnected power systems

World economies increasingly demand reliable and economical power supply and distribution. To achieve this aim the majority of power systems are becoming interconnected, with several power utilities supplying the one large network. One problem that occurs in a large interconnected power system is the regular occurrence of system disturbances which can result in the creation of intra-area oscillating modes. These modes can be regarded as the transient responses of the power system to excitation, which are generally characterised as decaying sinusoids. For a power system operating ideally these transient responses would ideally would have a “ring-down” time of 10-15 seconds. Sometimes equipment failures disturb the ideal operation of power systems and oscillating modes with ring-down times greater than 15 seconds arise. The larger settling times associated with such “poorly damped” modes cause substantial power flows between generation nodes, resulting in significant physical stresses on the power distribution system. If these modes are not just poorly damped but “negatively damped”, catastrophic failures of the system can occur. To ensure system stability and security of large power systems, the potentially dangerous oscillating modes generated from disturbances (such as equipment failure) must be quickly identified. The power utility must then apply appropriate damping control strategies. In power system monitoring there exist two facets of critical interest. The first is the estimation of modal parameters for a power system in normal, stable, operation. The second is the rapid detection of any substantial changes to this normal, stable operation (because of equipment breakdown for example). Most work to date has concentrated on the first of these two facets, i.e. on modal parameter estimation. Numerous modal parameter estimation techniques have been proposed and implemented, but all have limitations [1-13]. One of the key limitations of all existing parameter estimation methods is the fact that they require very long data records to provide accurate parameter estimates. This is a particularly significant problem after a sudden detrimental change in damping. One simply cannot afford to wait long enough to collect the large amounts of data required for existing parameter estimators. Motivated by this gap in the current body of knowledge and practice, the research reported in this thesis focuses heavily on rapid detection of changes (i.e. on the second facet mentioned above). This thesis reports on a number of new algorithms which can rapidly flag whether or not there has been a detrimental change to a stable operating system. It will be seen that the new algorithms enable sudden modal changes to be detected within quite short time frames (typically about 1 minute), using data from power systems in normal operation. The new methods reported in this thesis are summarised below. The Energy Based Detector (EBD): The rationale for this method is that the modal disturbance energy is greater for lightly damped modes than it is for heavily damped modes (because the latter decay more rapidly). Sudden changes in modal energy, then, imply sudden changes in modal damping. Because the method relies on data from power systems in normal operation, the modal disturbances are random. Accordingly, the disturbance energy is modelled as a random process (with the parameters of the model being determined from the power system under consideration). A threshold is then set based on the statistical model. The energy method is very simple to implement and is computationally efficient. It is, however, only able to determine whether or not a sudden modal deterioration has occurred; it cannot identify which mode has deteriorated. For this reason the method is particularly well suited to smaller interconnected power systems that involve only a single mode. Optimal Individual Mode Detector (OIMD): As discussed in the previous paragraph, the energy detector can only determine whether or not a change has occurred; it cannot flag which mode is responsible for the deterioration. The OIMD seeks to address this shortcoming. It uses optimal detection theory to test for sudden changes in individual modes. In practice, one can have an OIMD operating for all modes within a system, so that changes in any of the modes can be detected. Like the energy detector, the OIMD is based on a statistical model and a subsequently derived threshold test. The Kalman Innovation Detector (KID): This detector is an alternative to the OIMD. Unlike the OIMD, however, it does not explicitly monitor individual modes. Rather it relies on a key property of a Kalman filter, namely that the Kalman innovation (the difference between the estimated and observed outputs) is white as long as the Kalman filter model is valid. A Kalman filter model is set to represent a particular power system. If some event in the power system (such as equipment failure) causes a sudden change to the power system, the Kalman model will no longer be valid and the innovation will no longer be white. Furthermore, if there is a detrimental system change, the innovation spectrum will display strong peaks in the spectrum at frequency locations associated with changes. Hence the innovation spectrum can be monitored to both set-off an “alarm” when a change occurs and to identify which modal frequency has given rise to the change. The threshold for alarming is based on the simple Chi-Squared PDF for a normalised white noise spectrum [14, 15]. While the method can identify the mode which has deteriorated, it does not necessarily indicate whether there has been a frequency or damping change. The PPM discussed next can monitor frequency changes and so can provide some discrimination in this regard. The Polynomial Phase Method (PPM): In [16] the cubic phase (CP) function was introduced as a tool for revealing frequency related spectral changes. This thesis extends the cubic phase function to a generalised class of polynomial phase functions which can reveal frequency related spectral changes in power systems. A statistical analysis of the technique is performed. When applied to power system analysis, the PPM can provide knowledge of sudden shifts in frequency through both the new frequency estimate and the polynomial phase coefficient information. This knowledge can be then cross-referenced with other detection methods to provide improved detection benchmarks.

Theory and development of GPS integrity monitoring system

This thesis discusses various aspects of the integrity monitoring of GPS applied to civil aircraft navigation in different phases of flight. These flight phases include en route, terminal, non-precision approach and precision approach. The thesis includes four major topics: probability problem of GPS navigation service, risk analysis of aircraft precision approach and landing, theoretical analysis of Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring (RAIM) techniques and RAIM availability, and GPS integrity monitoring at a ground reference station. Particular attention is paid to the mathematical aspects of the GPS integrity monitoring system. The research has been built upon the stringent integrity requirements defined by civil aviation community, and concentrates on the capability and performance investigation of practical integrity monitoring systems with rigorous mathematical and statistical concepts and approaches. Major contributions of this research are: • Rigorous integrity and continuity risk analysis for aircraft precision approach. Based on the joint probability density function of the affecting components, the integrity and continuity risks of aircraft precision approach with DGPS were computed. This advanced the conventional method of allocating the risk probability. • A theoretical study of RAIM test power. This is the first time a theoretical study on RAIM test power based on the probability statistical theory has been presented, resulting in a new set of RAIM criteria. • Development of a GPS integrity monitoring and DGPS quality control system based on GPS reference station. A prototype of GPS integrity monitoring and DGPS correction prediction system has been developed and tested, based on the A USN A V GPS base station on the roof of QUT ITE Building.

Spectral coding methods for speech compression and speaker identification

This thesis investigates aspects of encoding the speech spectrum at low bit rates, with extensions to the effect of such coding on automatic speaker identification. Vector quantization (VQ) is a technique for jointly quantizing a block of samples at once, in order to reduce the bit rate of a coding system. The major drawback in using VQ is the complexity of the encoder. Recent research has indicated the potential applicability of the VQ method to speech when product code vector quantization (PCVQ) techniques are utilized. The focus of this research is the efficient representation, calculation and utilization of the speech model as stored in the PCVQ codebook. In this thesis, several VQ approaches are evaluated, and the efficacy of two training algorithms is compared experimentally. It is then shown that these productcode vector quantization algorithms may be augmented with lossless compression algorithms, thus yielding an improved overall compression rate. An approach using a statistical model for the vector codebook indices for subsequent lossless compression is introduced. This coupling of lossy compression and lossless compression enables further compression gain. It is demonstrated that this approach is able to reduce the bit rate requirement from the current 24 bits per 20 millisecond frame to below 20, using a standard spectral distortion metric for comparison. Several fast-search VQ methods for use in speech spectrum coding have been evaluated. The usefulness of fast-search algorithms is highly dependent upon the source characteristics and, although previous research has been undertaken for coding of images using VQ codebooks trained with the source samples directly, the product-code structured codebooks for speech spectrum quantization place new constraints on the search methodology. The second major focus of the research is an investigation of the effect of lowrate spectral compression methods on the task of automatic speaker identification. The motivation for this aspect of the research arose from a need to simultaneously preserve the speech quality and intelligibility and to provide for machine-based automatic speaker recognition using the compressed speech. This is important because there are several emerging applications of speaker identification where compressed speech is involved. Examples include mobile communications where the speech has been highly compressed, or where a database of speech material has been assembled and stored in compressed form. Although these two application areas have the same objective - that of maximizing the identification rate - the starting points are quite different. On the one hand, the speech material used for training the identification algorithm may or may not be available in compressed form. On the other hand, the new test material on which identification is to be based may only be available in compressed form. Using the spectral parameters which have been stored in compressed form, two main classes of speaker identification algorithm are examined. Some studies have been conducted in the past on bandwidth-limited speaker identification, but the use of short-term spectral compression deserves separate investigation. Combining the major aspects of the research, some important design guidelines for the construction of an identification model when based on the use of compressed speech are put forward.