Learning the learning rate for prediction with expert advice

Most standard algorithms for prediction with expert advice depend on a parameter called the learning rate. This learning rate needs to be large enough to fit the data well, but small enough to prevent overfitting. For the exponential weights algorithm, a sequence of prior work has established theoretical guarantees for higher and higher data-dependent tunings of the learning rate, which allow for increasingly aggressive learning. But in practice such theoretical tunings often still perform worse (as measured by their regret) than ad hoc tuning with an even higher learning rate. To close the gap between theory and practice we introduce an approach to learn the learning rate. Up to a factor that is at most (poly)logarithmic in the number of experts and the inverse of the learning rate, our method performs as well as if we would know the empirically best learning rate from a large range that includes both conservative small values and values that are much higher than those for which formal guarantees were previously available. Our method employs a grid of learning rates, yet runs in linear time regardless of the size of the grid.

A semi-alternating direction method for a 2-D fractional FitzHugh–Nagumo monodomain model on an approximate irregular domain

A FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model has been used to describe the propagation of the electrical potential in heterogeneous cardiac tissue. In this paper, we consider a two-dimensional fractional FitzHugh-Nagumo monodomain model on an irregular domain. The model consists of a coupled Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model and an ordinary differential equation, describing the ionic fluxes as a function of the membrane potential. Secondly, we use a decoupling technique and focus on solving the Riesz space fractional nonlinear reaction-diffusion model. A novel spatially second-order accurate semi-implicit alternating direction method (SIADM) for this model on an approximate irregular domain is proposed. Thirdly, stability and convergence of the SIADM are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are given to support our theoretical analysis and these numerical techniques are employed to simulate a two-dimensional fractional Fitzhugh-Nagumo model on both an approximate circular and an approximate irregular domain.

Sub-genomic RNA of defective interfering (D.I.) dengue viral particles is replicated in the same manner as full length genomes

The predicted secondary structure of sub-genomic RNA in dengue virus defective interfering (D.I.) particles from patients, or generated in vitro, resembled that of the 3′ and 5′ regions of wild type dengue virus (DENV) genomes. While these structures in the sub-genomic RNA were found to be essential for its replication, their nucleotide sequences were not, so long as any new sequences maintained wild type RNA secondary structure. These observations suggested that these sub-genomic fragments of RNA from dengue viruses were replicated in the same manner as the full length genomes of their wild type, “helper”, viruses and that they probably represent the smallest fragments of DENV RNA that can be replicated during a natural infection. While D.I. particles containing sub-genomic RNA are completely parasitic, the relationship between wild type and D.I. DENV may be symbiotic, with the D.I. particles enhancing the transmission of infectious DENV.

Crystal structure of the magnesium salt of the herbicide 2,4-D: pentaaqua[(2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetato-kO]magnesium (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetate hemihydrate

In the structure of the title magnesium complex with the phenoxy herbicide (2,4-dichlorophenoxy)acetic acid (2,4-D), [Mg(H2O)5(C8H5Cl2O3)]+ C8H5Cl2O3)- . 0.5H2O, the discrete cationic MgO6 complex units comprise a carboxyl O-donor from a monodentate 2,4-D cationic ligand and five water molecules in a slightly distorted octahedral coordination. The 2,4-D anions are linked to the complex units through duplex water O-H...O(carboxyl) hydrogen bonds through the coordinated water molecules. In the crystal inter-unit O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions involving coordinated water molecules as well as the hemi-hydrate solvate molecule with carboxyl O-atom acceptors, give a two-dimensional layered structure lying parallel (001), in which pi-pi ligand-cation interactions [minimum ring centroid separation, 3.6405(17)A] and a short O-H...Cl interaction [3.345(2)A] are also found.

Liquid Business Process Model Collections

Many organizations realize that increasing amounts of data (“Big Data”) need to be dealt with intelligently in order to compete with other organizations in terms of efficiency, speed and services. The goal is not to collect as much data as possible, but to turn event data into valuable insights that can be used to improve business processes. However, data-oriented analysis approaches fail to relate event data to process models. At the same time, large organizations are generating piles of process models that are disconnected from the real processes and information systems. In this chapter we propose to manage large collections of process models and event data in an integrated manner. Observed and modeled behavior need to be continuously compared and aligned. This results in a “liquid��� business process model collection, i.e. a collection of process models that is in sync with the actual organizational behavior. The collection should self-adapt to evolving organizational behavior and incorporate relevant execution data (e.g. process performance and resource utilization) extracted from the logs, thereby allowing insightful reports to be produced from factual organizational data.

Cord blood vitamin D and neurocognitive development are nonlinearly related in toddlers

Background Little is known about the relation between vitamin D status in early life and neurodevelopment outcomes. Objective This study was designed to examine the association of cord blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] at birth with neurocognitive development in toddlers. Methods As part of the China-Anhui Birth Cohort Study, 363 mother-infant pairs with completed data were selected. Concentrations of 25(OH)D in cord blood were measured by radioimmunoassay. Mental development index (MDI) and psychomotor development index (PDI) in toddlers were assessed at age 16–18 mo by using the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. The data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics and other confounding factors were also prospectively collected. Results Toddlers in the lowest quintile of cord blood 25(OH)D exhibited a deficit of 7.60 (95% CI: −12.4, −2.82; P = 0.002) and 8.04 (95% CI: −12.9, −3.11; P = 0.001) points in the MDI and PDI scores, respectively, compared with the reference category. Unexpectedly, toddlers in the highest quintile of cord blood 25(OH)D also had a significant deficit of 12.3 (95% CI: −17.9, −6.67; P < 0.001) points in PDI scores compared with the reference category. Conclusions This prospective study suggested that there was an inverted-U–shaped relation between neonatal vitamin D status and neurocognitive development in toddlers. Additional studies on the optimal 25(OH)D concentrations in early life are needed.

Telomere length in circulating leukocytes is associated with lung function and disease

Several clinical studies suggest the involvement of premature ageing processes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Using an epidemiological approach, we studied whether accelerated ageing indicated by telomere length, a marker of biological age, is associated with COPD and asthma, and whether intrinsic age-related processes contribute to the interindividual variability of lung function. Our meta-analysis of 14 studies included 934 COPD cases with 15 846 controls defined according to the Global Lungs Initiative (GLI) criteria (or 1189 COPD cases according to the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) criteria), 2834 asthma cases with 28 195 controls, and spirometric parameters (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC) of 12 595 individuals. Associations with telomere length were tested by linear regression, adjusting for age, sex and smoking status. We observed negative associations between telomere length and asthma (β= −0.0452, p=0.024) as well as COPD (β= −0.0982, p=0.001), with associations being stronger and more significant when using GLI criteria than those of GOLD. In both diseases, effects were stronger in females than males. The investigation of spirometric indices showed positive associations between telomere length and FEV1 (p=1.07×10−7), FVC (p=2.07×10−5), and FEV1/FVC (p=5.27×10−3). The effect was somewhat weaker in apparently healthy subjects than in COPD or asthma patients. Our results provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that cellular senescence may contribute to the pathogenesis of COPD and asthma, and that lung function may reflect biological ageing primarily due to intrinsic processes, which are likely to be aggravated in lung diseases.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Pituitary volume predicts future transition to psychosis in individuals at ultra-high risk of developing psychosis

Background We examined pituitary volume before the onset of psychosis in subjects who were at ultra-high risk (UHR) for developing psychosis. Methods Pituitary volume was measured on 1.5-mm, coronal, 1.5-T magnetic resonance images in 94 UHR subjects recruited from admissions to the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation Clinic in Melbourne, Australia and in 49 healthy control subjects. The UHR subjects were scanned at baseline and were followed clinically for a minimum of 1 year to detect transition to psychosis. Results Within the UHR group, a larger baseline pituitary volume was a significant predictor of future transition to psychosis. The UHR subjects who later went on to develop psychosis (UHR-P, n = 31) had a significantly larger (+12%; p = .001) baseline pituitary volume compared with UHR subjects who did not go on to develop psychosis (UHR-NP, n = 63). The survival analysis conducted by Cox regression showed that the risk of developing psychosis during the follow-up increased by 20% for every 10% increase in baseline pituitary volume (p = .002). Baseline pituitary volume of the UHR-NP subjects was smaller not only compared with UHR-P (as described above) but also compared with control subjects (−6%; p = .032). Conclusions The phase before the onset of psychosis is associated with a larger pituitary volume, suggesting activation of the HPA axis.

EVpedia: A community web portal for extracellular vesicles research

Motivation Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are spherical bilayered proteolipids, harboring various bioactive molecules. Due to the complexity of the vesicular nomenclatures and components, online searches for EV-related publications and vesicular components are currently challenging. Results We present an improved version of EVpedia, a public database for EVs research. This community web portal contains a database of publications and vesicular components, identification of orthologous vesicular components, bioinformatic tools and a personalized function. EVpedia includes 6879 publications, 172 080 vesicular components from 263 high-throughput datasets, and has been accessed more than 65 000 times from more than 750 cities. In addition, about 350 members from 73 international research groups have participated in developing EVpedia. This free web-based database might serve as a useful resource to stimulate the emerging field of EV research. Availability and implementation The web site was implemented in PHP, Java, MySQL and Apache, and is freely available at http://evpedia.info.

Common genetic variants influence human subcortical brain structures

The highly complex structure of the human brain is strongly shaped by genetic influences. Subcortical brain regions form circuits with cortical areas to coordinate movement, learning, memory and motivation, and altered circuits can lead to abnormal behaviour and disease. To investigate how common genetic variants affect the structure of these brain regions, here we conduct genome-wide association studies of the volumes of seven subcortical regions and the intracranial volume derived from magnetic resonance images of 30,717 individuals from 50 cohorts. We identify five novel genetic variants influencing the volumes of the putamen and caudate nucleus. We also find stronger evidence for three loci with previously established influences on hippocampal volume and intracranial volume. These variants show specific volumetric effects on brain structures rather than global effects across structures. The strongest effects were found for the putamen, where a novel intergenic locus with replicable influence on volume (rs945270; P = 1.08×10 -33; 0.52% variance explained) showed evidence of altering the expression of the KTN1 gene in both brain and blood tissue. Variants influencing putamen volume clustered near developmental genes that regulate apoptosis, axon guidance and vesicle transport. Identification of these genetic variants provides insight into the causes of variability in human brain development, and may help to determine mechanisms of neuropsychiatric dysfunction.