Stochastic growth models for analyzing crustacean data

The contemporary methodology for growth models of organisms is based on continuous trajectories and thus it hinders us from modelling stepwise growth in crustacean populations. Growth models for fish are normally assumed to follow a continuous function, but a different type of model is needed for crustacean growth. Crustaceans must moult in order for them to grow. The growth of crustaceans is a discontinuous process due to the periodical shedding of the exoskeleton in moulting. The stepwise growth of crustaceans through the moulting process makes the growth estimation more complex. Stochastic approaches can be used to model discontinuous growth or what are commonly known as "jumps" (Figure 1). However, in stochastic growth model we need to ensure that the stochastic growth model results in only positive jumps. In view of this, we will introduce a subordinator that is a special case of a Levy process. A subordinator is a non-decreasing Levy process, that will assist in modelling crustacean growth for better understanding of the individual variability and stochasticity in moulting periods and increments. We develop the estimation methods for parameter estimation and illustrate them with the help of a dataset from laboratory experiments. The motivational dataset is from the ornate rock lobster, Panulirus ornatus, which can be found between Australia and Papua New Guinea. Due to the presence of sex effects on the growth (Munday et al., 2004), we estimate the growth parameters separately for each sex. Since all hard parts are shed too often, the exact age determination of a lobster can be challenging. However, the growth parameters for the aforementioned moult processes from tank data being able to estimate through: (i) inter-moult periods, and (ii) moult increment. We will attempt to derive a joint density, which is made up of two functions: one for moult increments and the other for time intervals between moults. We claim these functions are conditionally independent given pre-moult length and the inter-moult periods. The variables moult increments and inter-moult periods are said to be independent because of the Markov property or conditional probability. Hence, the parameters in each function can be estimated separately. Subsequently, we integrate both of the functions through a Monte Carlo method. We can therefore obtain a population mean for crustacean growth (e. g. red curve in Figure 1). [GRAPHICS]

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Size-dependent natural mortality of juvenile banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

Natural mortality of marine invertebrates is often very high in the early life history stages and decreases in later stages. The possible size-dependent mortality of juvenile banana prawns, P. merguiensis (2-15 mm carapace length) in the Gulf of Carpentaria was investigated. The analysis was based on the data collected at 2-weekly intervals by beam trawls at four sites over a period of six years (between September 1986 and March 1992). It was assumed that mortality was a parametric function of size, rather than a constant. Another complication in estimating mortality for juvenile banana prawns is that a significant proportion of the population emigrates from the study area each year. This effect was accounted for by incorporating the size-frequency pattern of the emigrants in the analysis. Both the extra parameter in the model required to describe the size dependence of mortality, and that used to account for emigration were found to be significantly different from zero, and the instantaneous mortality rate declined from 0.89 week(-1) for 2 mm prawns to 0.02 week(-1) for 15 mm prawns.

Heparin versus 0.9% sodium chloride intermittent flushing for the prevention of occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children

Background Guidelines and clinical practice for the prevention of complications associated with central venous catheters (CVC) around the world vary greatly. Most institutions recommend the use of heparin to prevent occlusion, however there is debate regarding the need for heparin and evidence to suggest 0.9% sodium chloride (normal saline) may be as effective. The use of heparin is not without risk, may be unnecessary and is also associated with increased cost. Objectives To assess the clinical effects (benefits and harms) of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Search Methods The Cochrane Vascular Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the Specialised Register (last searched April 2015) and the Cochrane Register of Studies (Issue 3, 2015). We also searched the reference lists of retrieved trials. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials that compared the efficacy of normal saline with heparin to prevent occlusion of long term CVCs in infants and children aged up to 18 years of age were included. We excluded temporary CVCs and peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC). Data Collection and Analysis Two review authors independently assessed trial inclusion criteria, trial quality and extracted data. Rate ratios were calculated for two outcome measures - occlusion of the CVC and central line-associated blood stream infection. Other outcome measures included duration of catheter placement, inability to withdraw blood from the catheter, use of urokinase or recombinant tissue plasminogen, incidence of removal or re-insertion of the catheter, or both, and other CVC-related complications such as dislocation of CVCs, other CVC site infections and thrombosis. Main Results Three trials with a total of 245 participants were included in this review. The three trials directly compared the use of normal saline and heparin, however, between studies, all used different protocols for the standard and experimental arms with different concentrations of heparin and different frequency of flushes reported. In addition, not all studies reported on all outcomes. The quality of the evidence ranged from low to very low because there was no blinding, heterogeneity and inconsistency between studies was high and the confidence intervals were wide. CVC occlusion was assessed in all three trials (243 participants). We were able to pool the results of two trials for the outcomes of CVC occlusion and CVC-associated blood stream infection. The estimated rate ratio for CVC occlusion per 1000 catheter days between the normal saline and heparin group was 0.75 (95% CI 0.10 to 5.51, two studies, 229 participants, very low quality evidence). The estimated rate ratio for CVC-associated blood stream infection was 1.48 (95% CI 0.24 to 9.37, two studies, 231 participants; low quality evidence). The duration of catheter placement was reported to be similar between the two study arms, in one study (203 participants). Authors' Conclusions The review found that there was not enough evidence to determine the effects of intermittent flushing of heparin versus normal saline to prevent occlusion in long term central venous catheters in infants and children. Ultimately, if this evidence were available, the development of evidenced-based clinical practice guidelines and consistency of practice would be facilitated.

The ontogeny of serum immunoreactive pancreatic lipase and cationic trypsinogen in the premature human infant

We evaluated the development of the exocrine pancreas in 16 healthy preterm infants (29.3 ± 1.6 weeks). The infants were fed breast milk with formula supplements (n=8) or formula alone (n=8). Growth was monitored weekly for 12 weeks then at 3, 6, 9, 12 months. At the same intervals sera were determined for pancreatic lipase and cationic trypsinogen. In addition, cord blood samples were analysed from another 33 preterm (27.6 ± 5.2 weeks) and 75 healthy full-term infants. Serum pancreatic lipase in the cord blood of term (3.7 ± 0.4 μg/l) and preterm infants (1.8 ± 0.2 μg/l) was significantly below values reported for older children (10.5 ± 0.9 μg/l; p < 0.001). In the preterm infant, serum lipase was also significantly lower than values obtained at term (p < 0.001). At birth, serum trypsinogen for preterm (16.8 ± 1.3 μg/l) and term infants (23.3 ± 1.9 μg/l) were below those for older children (31.4 ± 3.7 μg/l; p < 0.05). Over the first 3 weeks of life, serum lipase and trypsinogen increased significantly. From 3 weeks to 12 months of age, serum trypsinogen values remained unchanged, but serum lipase increased dramatically after 10 weeks of age. Thus, at 6 and 12 months of age, the preterm infants had significantly higher serum lipase values than infants of the same age born at term. These two pancreatic enzymes appear to show independent age-related maturation in infants born before term. The rate of maturation of lipase appears to be accelerated by exposure to the extrauterine environment.

No evidence for genetic association with the let-7 microRNA-binding site or other common KRAS variants in risk of endometriosis

STUDY QUESTION Is there a contribution of the minor allele at the KRAS single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs61764370 in the let-7 microRNA-binding site to endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found no evidence for association between endometriosis risk and rs61764370 or any other SNPs in KRAS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The rs61764370 SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the KRAS gene is predicted to disrupt a complementary binding site (LCS6) for the let-7 microRNA, and was recently reported to be at a high frequency (31%) in 132 women of varying ancestry with endometriosis compared with frequencies in a database of population controls (up to 7.6% depending on ancestry), suggesting a strong effect of this KRAS SNP in the aetiology of endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION This was a case-control study with a total of 11 206 subjects. The study was performed between February 2012 and July 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGAND METHODS We first investigated a possible association between common markers in KRAS and endometriosis risk from our genome-wide association (GWA) data in 3194 surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 7060 controls of European ancestry. Although rs61764370 was not genotyped on the GWA arrays, five SNPs typed in the study were highly correlated with this variant. The rs61764370 and two SNPs highly correlated with rs61764370 were then genotyped in 933 endometriosis cases and 952 controls using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was no evidence for an association between rs61764370 and endometriosis risk P = 0.411 and odds ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence intervals: 0.88-1.36). We also found no evidence for an association between the highly correlated SNP rs17387019 and endometriosis. Their minor allele frequencies in cases and controls were of 0.087-0.091 similar to the population frequency reported previously for this variant in controls. Analyses of endometriosis cases with revised American Fertility Society stage III/IV disease also showed no evidence for an association between these SNPs and endometriosis risk. LIMITATIONS AND REASONS FOR CAUTION The GWA and genotyped data sets were not independent since individuals and cases from some families overlap. Controls in our GWA study were not screened for endometriosis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The key SNP, rs61764370, was genotyped in a subset of samples. Our results do not support the suggestion that carrying the minor allele at rs61764370 contributes to a significant number of endometriosis cases and rs61764370 is, therefore, unlikely to be a useful marker of endometriosis risk. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.

Genome-wide linkage analysis of multiple measures of neuroticism of 2 large cohorts from Australia and the Netherlands

CONTEXT People meeting diagnostic criteria for anxiety or depressive disorders tend to score high on the personality scale of neuroticism. Studying this personality dimension can give insights into the etiology of these important psychiatric disorders. OBJECTIVES To undertake a comprehensive genome-wide linkage study of neuroticism using large study samples that have been measured multiple times and to compare the results between countries for replication and across time within countries for consistency. DESIGN Genome-wide linkage scan. SETTING Twin individuals and their family members from Australia and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS Nineteen thousand six hundred thirty-five sibling pairs completed self-report questionnaires for neuroticism up to 5 times over a period of up to 22 years. Five thousand sixty-nine sibling pairs were genotyped with microsatellite markers. METHODS Nonparametric linkage analyses were conducted in MERLIN-REGRESS for the mean neuroticism scores averaged across time. Additional analyses were conducted for the time-specific measures of neuroticism from each country to investigate consistency of linkage results. RESULTS Three chromosomal regions exceeded empirically derived thresholds for suggestive linkage using mean neuroticism scores: 10p 5 Kosambi cM (cM) (Dutch study sample), 14q 103 cM (Dutch study sample), and 18q 117 cM (combined Australian and Dutch study sample), but only 14q retained significance after correction for multiple testing. These regions all showed evidence for linkage in individual time-specific measures of neuroticism and 1 (18q) showed some evidence for replication between countries. Linkage intervals for these regions all overlap with regions identified in other studies of neuroticism or related traits and/or in studies of anxiety in mice. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate the value of the availability of multiple measures over time and add to the optimism reported in recent reviews for replication of linkage regions for neuroticism. These regions are likely to harbor causal variants for neuroticism and its related psychiatric disorders and can inform prioritization of results from genome-wide association studies.

Significant evidence of one or more susceptibility loci for endometriosis with near-Mendelian inheritance on chromosome 7p13-15

BACKGROUND: Endometriosis is a common disease with a heritable component. The collaborative International Endogene Study consists of two data sets (Oxford and Australia) comprising 1176 families with multiple affected. The aim was to investigate whether the apparent concentration of cases in a proportion of families could be explained by one or more rare variants with (near-)Mendelian autosomal inheritance. METHODS AND RESULTS: Linkage analyses (aimed at finding chromosomal regions harbouring disease-predisposing genes) were conducted in families with three or more affected (Oxford: n = 52; Australia: n = 196). In the Oxford data set, a non-parametric linkage score (Kong & Cox (K&C) Log of ODds (LOD)) of 3.52 was observed on chromosome 7p (genome-wide significance P = 0.011). A parametric MOD score (equal to maximum LOD maximized over 357 possible inheritance models) of 3.89 was found at 65.72 cM (D7S510) for a dominant model with reduced penetrance. After including the Australian data set, the non-parametric K&C LOD of the combined data set was 1.46 at 57.3 cM; the parametric analysis found an MOD score of 3.30 at D7S484 (empirical significance: P = 0.035) for a recessive model with high penetrance. Critical recombinant analysis narrowed the probable region of linkage down to overlapping 6.4 Mb and 11 Mb intervals containing 48 and 96 genes, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report to suggest that there may be one or more high-penetrance susceptibility loci for endometriosis with (near-)Mendelian inheritance.

Migraine with aura and migraine without aura are not distinct entities: further evidence from a large Dutch population study

It is often debated whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) are etiologically distinct disorders. A previous study using latent class analysis (LCA) in Australian twins showed no evidence for separate subtypes of MO and MA. The aim of the present study was to replicate these results in a population of Dutch twins and their parents, siblings and partners (N = 10,144). Latent class analysis of International Headache Society (IHS)-based migraine symptoms resulted in the identification of 4 classes: a class of unaffected subjects (class 0), a mild form of nonmigrainous headache (class 1), a moderately severe type of migraine (class 2), typically without neurological symptoms or aura (8% reporting aura symptoms), and a severe type of migraine (class 3), typically with neurological symptoms, and aura symptoms in approximately half of the cases. Given the overlap of neurological symptoms and nonmutual exclusivity of aura symptoms, these results do not support the MO and MA subtypes as being etiologically distinct. The heritability in female twins of migraine based on LCA classification was estimated at .50 (95% confidence intervals [CI] .27 - .59), similar to IHS-based migraine diagnosis (h2 = .49, 95% CI .19-.57). However, using a dichotomous classification (affected-unaffected) decreased heritability for the IHS-based classification (h2 = .33, 95% CI .00-.60), but not the LCA-based classification (h2 = .51, 95% CI .23-.61). Importantly, use of the LCA-based classification increased the number of subjects classified as affected. The heritability of the screening question was similar to more detailed LCA and IHS classifications, suggesting that the screening procedure is an important determining factor in genetic studies of migraine.

Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess the impact of exercise referral schemes on physical activity and health outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and ongoing trial registries up to October 2009. We also checked study references. Study selection - Design: randomised controlled trials or non-randomised controlled (cluster or individual) studies published in peer review journals. - Population: sedentary individuals with or without medical diagnosis. - Exercise referral schemes defined as: clear referrals by primary care professionals to third party service providers to increase physical activity or exercise, physical activity or exercise programmes tailored to individuals, and initial assessment and monitoring throughout programmes. - Comparators: usual care, no intervention, or alternative exercise referral schemes. Results Eight randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, comparing exercise referral schemes with usual care (six trials), alternative physical activity intervention (two), and an exercise referral scheme plus a self determination theory intervention (one). Compared with usual care, follow-up data for exercise referral schemes showed an increased number of participants who achieved 90-150 minutes of physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week (pooled relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.30) and a reduced level of depression (pooled standardised mean difference −0.82, −1.28 to −0.35). Evidence of a between group difference in physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity or in other health outcomes was inconsistent at follow-up. We did not find any difference in outcomes between exercise referral schemes and the other two comparator groups. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with specific medical diagnoses. Substantial heterogeneity in the quality and nature of the exercise referral schemes across studies might have contributed to the inconsistency in outcome findings. Conclusions Considerable uncertainty remains as to the effectiveness of exercise referral schemes for increasing physical activity, fitness, or health indicators, or whether they are an efficient use of resources for sedentary people with or without a medical diagnosis.

Assessing the effectiveness of High Intensity Interval Training (HIIT) for smoking cessation in women: HIIT to quit study protocol

Background: Smoking and physical inactivity are major risk factors for heart disease. Linking strategies that promote improvements in fitness and assist quitting smoking has potential to address both these risk factors simultaneously. The objective of this study is to compare the effects of two exercise interventions (high intensity interval training (HIIT) and lifestyle physical activity) on smoking cessation in female smokers. Method/design: This study will use a randomised controlled trial design. Participants: Women aged 18–55 years who smoke ≥ 5 cigarettes/day, and want to quit smoking. Intervention: all participants will receive usual care for quitting smoking. Group 1 - will complete two gym-based supervised HIIT sessions/week and one home-based HIIT session/week. At each training session participants will be asked to complete four 4-min (4 × 4 min) intervals at approximately 90 % of maximum heart rate interspersed with 3- min recovery periods. Group 2 - participants will receive a resource pack and pedometer, and will be asked to use the 10,000 steps log book to record steps and other physical activities. The aim will be to increase daily steps to 10,000 steps/day. Analysis will be intention to treat and measures will include smoking cessation, withdrawal and cravings, fitness, physical activity, and well-being. Discussion: The study builds on previous research suggesting that exercise intensity may influence the efficacy of exercise as a smoking cessation intervention. The hypothesis is that HIIT will improve fitness and assist women to quit smoking.

The validity of the GENEActiv wrist-worn accelerometer for measuring adult sedentary time in free living

OBJECTIVES Based on self-reported measures, sedentary time has been associated with chronic disease and mortality. This study examined the validity of the wrist-worn GENEactiv accelerometer for measuring sedentary time (i.e. sitting and lying) by posture classification, during waking hours in free living adults. DESIGN Fifty-seven participants (age=18-55 years 52% male) were recruited using convenience sampling from a large metropolitan Australian university. METHODS Participants wore a GENEActiv accelerometer on their non-dominant wrist and an activPAL device attached to their right thigh for 24-h (00:00 to 23:59:59). Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to examine the convergent validity of the GENEActiv and the activPAL for estimating total sedentary time during waking hours. Agreement was illustrated using Bland and Altman plots, and intra-individual agreement for posture was assessed with the Kappa statistic. RESULTS Estimates of average total sedentary time over 24-h were 623 (SD 103) min/day from the GENEActiv, and 626 (SD 123) min/day from the activPAL, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient of 0.80 (95% confidence intervals 0.68-0.88). Bland and Altman plots showed slight underestimation of mean total sedentary time for GENEActiv relative to activPAL (mean difference: -3.44min/day), with moderate limits of agreement (-144 to 137min/day). Mean Kappa for posture was 0.53 (SD 0.12), indicating moderate agreement for this sample at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS The estimation of sedentary time by posture classification of the wrist-worn GENEActiv accelerometer was comparable to the activPAL. The GENEActiv may provide an alternative, easy to wear device based measure for descriptive estimates of sedentary time in population samples

Physical activity in mid-age and older women: Lessons from the Australian longitudinal study on women’s health

The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health (ALSWH) commenced in Australia in 1996 when researchers recruited approximately 40,000 women in three birth cohorts: 1973–1978, 1946–1951, and 1921–1926. Since then participants have completed surveys on a wide range of health issues, at approximately three-year intervals. This overview describes changes in physical activity (PA) over time in the mid-age and older ALSWH cohorts, and summarizes the findings of studies published to date on the determinants of PA, and its associated health outcomes in Australian women. The ALSWH data show a significant increase in PA during mid-age, and a rapid decline in activity levels when women are in their 80s. The study has demonstrated the importance of life stages and key life events as determinants of activity, the additional benefits of vigorous activity for mid-age women, and the health benefits of ‘only walking’ for older women. ALSWH researchers have also drawn attention to the benefits of activity in terms of a wide range of physical and mental health outcomes, as well as overall vitality and well-being. The data indicate that maintaining a high level of PA throughout mid and older age will not only reduce the risk of premature death, but also significantly extend the number of years of healthy life.

Emotional climate of a pre-service science teacher education class in Bhutan

This study explored pre-service secondary science teachers’ perceptions of classroom emotional climate in the context of the Bhutanese macro-social policy of Gross National Happiness. Drawing upon sociological perspectives of human emotions and using Interaction Ritual Theory this study investigated how pre-service science teachers may be supported in their professional development. It was a multi-method study involving video and audio recordings of teaching episodes supported by interviews and the researcher’s diary. Students also registered their perceptions of the emotional climate of their classroom at 3-minute intervals using audience response technology. In this way, emotional events were identified for video analysis. The findings of this study highlighted that the activities pre-service teachers engaged in matter to them. Positive emotional climate was identified in activities involving students’ presentations using video clips and models, coteaching, and interactive whole class discussions. Decreases in emotional climate were identified during formal lectures and when unprepared presenters led presentations. Emotions such as frustration and disappointment characterized classes with negative emotional climate. The enabling conditions to sustain a positive emotional climate are identified. Implications for sustaining macro-social policy about Gross National Happiness are considered in light of the climate that develops in science teacher education classes.

Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.