Prediction of age at menopause from assessment of ovarian reserve may be improved by using body mass index and smoking status

Objective: Menopause is the consequence of exhaustion of the ovarian follicular pool. AMH, an indirect hormonal marker of ovarian reserve, has been recently proposed as a predictor for age at menopause. Since BMI and smoking status are relevant independent factors associated with age at menopause we evaluated whether a model including all three of these variables could improve AMH-based prediction of age at menopause. Methods: In the present cohort study, participants were 375 eumenorrheic women aged 19–44 years and a sample of 2,635 Italian menopausal women. AMH values were obtained from the eumenorrheic women. Results: Regression analysis of the AMH data showed that a quadratic function of age provided a good description of these data plotted on a logarithmic scale, with a distribution of residual deviates that was not normal but showed significant leftskewness. Under the hypothesis that menopause can be predicted by AMH dropping below a critical threshold, a model predicting menopausal age was constructed from the AMH regression model and applied to the data on menopause. With the AMH threshold dependent on the covariates BMI and smoking status, the effects of these covariates were shown to be highly significant. Conclusions: In the present study we confirmed the good level of conformity between the distributions of observed and AMH-predicted ages at menopause, and showed that using BMI and smoking status as additional variables improves AMH-based prediction of age at menopause.

A new model to study healing of a complex femur fracture with concurrent soft tissue injury in sheep

High energy bone fractures resulting from impact trauma are often accompanied by subcutaneous soft tissue injuries, even if the skin remains intact. There is evidence that such closed soft tissue injuries affect the healing of bone fractures, and vice versa. Despite this knowledge, most impact trauma studies in animals have focussed on bone fractures or soft tissue trauma in isolation. However, given the simultaneous impact on both tissues a better understanding of the interaction between these two injuries is necessary to optimise clinical treatment. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a new experimental model and characterise, for the first time, the healing of a complex fracture with concurrent closed soft tissue trauma in sheep. A pendulum impact device was designed to deliver a defined and standardised impact to the distal thigh of sheep, causing a reproducible contusion injury to the subcutaneous soft tissues. In a subsequent procedure, a reproducible femoral butterfly fracture (AO C3-type) was created at the sheep’s femur, which was initially stabilised for 5 days by an external fixator construct to allow for soft tissue swelling to recede, and ultimately in a bridging construct using locking plates. The combined injuries were applied to twelve sheep and the healing observed for four or eight weeks (six animals per group) until sacrifice. The pendulum impact led to a moderate to severe circumferential soft tissue injury with significant bruising, haematomas and partial muscle disruptions. Posttraumatic measurements showed elevated intra-compartmental pressure and circulatory tissue breakdown markers, with recovery to normal, pre-injury values within four days. Clinically, no neurovascular deficiencies were observed. Bi-weekly radiological analysis of the healing fractures showed progressive callus healing over time, with the average number of callus bridges increasing from 0.4 at two weeks to 4.2 at eight weeks. Biomechanical testing after sacrifice showed increasing torsional stiffness between four and eight weeks healing time from 10% to 100%, and increasing ultimate torsional strength from 10% to 64% (relative to the contralateral control limb). Our results demonstrate the robust healing of a complex femur fracture in the presence of a severe soft tissue contusion injury in sheep and demonstrate the establishment of a clinically relevant experimental model, for research aimed at improving the treatment of bone fractures accompanied by closed soft tissue injuries.

Exercise and Cellular Mechanisms of Muscle Injury

The general aim of this book is to provide a comprehensive summary of the characteristics of exercise-induced muscle damage and the mechanisms of tissue inflammation. The authors present a large amount of our own original data and have summarised the research of others.

School-based first aid training and the implications for traffic injury prevention : a randomised controlled trial

Adolescent injury remains a significant public health concern and is often the result of at-risk transport related behaviours. When a person is injured actions taken by bystanders are of crucial importance and timely first aid appears to reduce the severity of some injuries (Hussain & Redmond, 1994). Accordingly, researchers have suggested that first aid training should be more widely available as a potential strategy to reduce injury (Lynch et al., 2006). Further research has identified schools as an ideal setting for learning first aid skills as a means of injury prevention (Maitra, 1997). The current research examines the implications of school based first aid training for young adolescents on injury prevention, particularly relating to transport injuries. First aid training was integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program (Buckley & Sheehan, 2009) and evaluated to determine if there was a reduction in the likelihood of transport related injuries at six months post-intervention. In Queensland, Australia, 35 high schools were recruited and randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions in early April 2012. A total of 2,000 Year nine students (mean age 13.5 years, 39% male) completed surveys six months post-intervention in November 2012. Analyses will compare the intervention students with control group students who self-reported i) first aid training with a teacher, professional or other adult and ii) no first aid in the preceding six months. Using the Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC) (Chapman, Buckley & Sheehan, 2011) the transport related injury experiences included being injured while “riding as a passenger in a car”, “driving a car off road” and “riding a bicycle”. It is expected that students taught first aid within SPIY will report significantly fewer transport related injuries in the previous three months, compared to the control groups described above. Analyses will be conducted separately for sex and socio-economic class of schools. Findings from this study will provide insight into the value of first aid in adolescent injury prevention and provide evidence as to whether teaching first aid skills within a school based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

Pro-inflammatory growth factors reduce secondary degeneration after traumatic spinal cord injury

The role of inflammatory response after spinal cord injury remains unclear. This thesis was a step forward in studying how promoting the inflammation, by delivery pro-inflammatory growth factors, affects the outcomes of spinal cord injury. A significant functional improvement was observed after treatment and these results suggest an interesting avenue for future clinical treatments and may provide a platform to improve the efficacy of other treatments.

Half metallicity in a zigzag double-walled nanotube nanodot : an Ab initio prediction

Ab initio density functional calculations were performed to study finite-length zigzag (7, 0) @ (16, 0) double-walled carbon nanotubes (DWCNTs) with H-termination at the open ends. We find that such a DWCNT nanodot displays a very large magnetic moment at the zigzag edges and the ground state displays symmetric anti-ferromagnetic coupling. When an external electric field is applied along the direction of tube axis, a gap is opened for one spin channel, whereas another spin channel remains metallic, i.e. half metallicity occurs. Our results suggest an important new avenue for the development of CNT-based spintronic materials with enhanced properties.

Half metallicity in finite-length zigzag single walled carbon nanotube : A first-principle prediction

We predict here from first-principle calculations that finite-length (n,0) single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) with H-termination at the open ends displaying antiferromagnetic coupling when n is greater than 6. An opposite local gating effect of the spin states, i.e., half metallicity, is found under the influence of an external electric field along the direction of tube axis. Remarkably, boron doping of unpassivated SWCNTs at both zigzag edges is found to favor a ferromagnetic ground state, with the B-doped tubes displaying half-metallic behavior even in the absence of an electric field. Aside of the intrinsic interest of these results, an important avenue for development of CNT-based spintronic is suggested.

The benefit of modeling jumps in realized volatility for risk prediction : evidence from Chinese mainland stocks

Recent literature has focused on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting performances through a Monte Carlo study and an analysis based on empirical data of eight Chinese stocks. The results suggest that careful modeling of jumps in realized volatility models can largely improve VaR prediction, especially for emerging markets where jumps play a stronger role than those in developed markets.

A novel device using the Nordic hamstring exercise to assess eccentric knee flexors strength : a reliability and retrospective injury study

STUDY DESIGN: Reliability and case-control injury study. OBJECTIVES: 1) To determine if a novel device, designed to measure eccentric knee flexors strength via the Nordic hamstring exercise (NHE), displays acceptable test-retest reliability; 2) to determine normative values for eccentric knee flexors strength derived from the device in individuals without a history of hamstring strain injury (HSI) and; 3) to determine if the device could detect weakness in elite athletes with a previous history of unilateral HSI. BACKGROUND: HSIs and reinjuries are the most common cause of lost playing time in a number of sports. Eccentric knee flexors weakness is a major modifiable risk factor for future HSIs, however there is a lack of easily accessible equipment to assess this strength quality. METHODS: Thirty recreationally active males without a history of HSI completed NHEs on the device on 2 separate occasions. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), typical error (TE), typical error as a co-efficient of variation (%TE), and minimum detectable change at a 95% confidence interval (MDC95) were calculated. Normative strength data were determined using the most reliable measurement. An additional 20 elite athletes with a unilateral history of HSI within the previous 12 months performed NHEs on the device to determine if residual eccentric muscle weakness existed in the previously injured limb. RESULTS: The device displayed high to moderate reliability (ICC = 0.83 to 0.90; TE = 21.7 N to 27.5 N; %TE = 5.8 to 8.5; MDC95 = 76.2 to 60.1 N). Mean±SD normative eccentric flexors strength, based on the uninjured group, was 344.7 ± 61.1 N for the left and 361.2 ± 65.1 N for the right side. The previously injured limbs were 15% weaker than the contralateral uninjured limbs (mean difference = 50.3 N; 95% CI = 25.7 to 74.9N; P < .01), 15% weaker than the normative left limb data (mean difference = 50.0 N; 95% CI = 1.4 to 98.5 N; P = .04) and 18% weaker than the normative right limb data (mean difference = 66.5 N; 95% CI = 18.0 to 115.1 N; P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: The experimental device offers a reliable method to determine eccentric knee flexors strength and strength asymmetry and revealed residual weakness in previously injured elite athletes.

Displacement motion prediction of a landing deck for recovery operations of rotary UAVs

This paper proposes a practical prediction procedure for vertical displacement of a Rotarywing Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) landing deck in the presence of stochastic sea state disturbances. A proper time series model tending to capture characteristics of the dynamic relationship between an observer and a landing deck is constructed, with model orders determined by a novel principle based on Bayes Information Criterion (BIC) and coefficients identified using the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. In addition, a fast-converging online multi-step predictor is developed, which can be implemented more rapidly than the Auto-Regressive (AR) predictor as it requires less memory allocations when updating coefficients. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed prediction approach exhibits satisfactory prediction performance, making it suitable for integration into ship-helicopter approach and landing guidance systems in consideration of computational capacity of the flight computer.

Designing a continuum of quality external cause of injury information in Queensland : from ambulance to hospital

This study is the first to employ an epidemiological framework to evaluate the ‘fit-for-purpose’ of ICD-10-AM external cause of injury codes, ambulance and hospital clinical documentation for injury surveillance. Importantly, this thesis develops an evidence-based platform to guide future improvements in routine data collections used to inform the design of effective injury prevention strategies. Quantification of the impact of ambulance clinical records on the overall information quality of Queensland hospital morbidity data collections for injury causal information is a unique and notable contribution of this study.

Urinary biomolecular indicators of exercise-induced over exertion injury

Poor health and injury represent major obstacles to the future economic security of Australia. The national economic cost of work-related injury is estimated at $57.5 billion p/a. Since exposure to high physical demands is a major risk factor for musculoskeletal injury, monitoring and managing such physical activity levels in workers is a potentially important injury prevention strategy. Current injury monitoring practices are inadequate for the provision of clinically valuable information about the tissue specific responses to physical exertion. Injury of various soft tissue structures can manifest over time through accumulation of micro-trauma. Such micro-trauma has a propensity to increase the risk of acute injuries to soft-tissue structures such as muscle or tendon. As such, the capacity to monitor biomarkers that result from the disruption of these tissues offers a means of assisting the pre-emptive management of subclinical injury prior to acute failure or for evaluation of recovery processes. Here we have adopted an in-vivo exercise induced muscle damage model allowing the application of laboratory controlled conditions to assist in uncovering biochemical indicators associated with soft-tissue trauma and recovery. Importantly, urine was utilised as the diagnostic medium since it is non-invasive to collect, more acceptable to workers and less costly to employers. Moreover, it is our hypothesis that exercise induced tissue degradation products enter the circulation and are subsequently filtered by the kidney and pass through to the urine. To test this hypothesis a range of metabolomic and proteomic discovery-phase techniques were used, along with targeted approaches. Several small molecules relating to tissue damage were identified along with a series of skeletal muscle-specific protein fragments resulting from exercise induced soft-tissue damage. Each of the potential biomolecular markers appeared to be temporally present within urine. Moreover, the regulation of abundance seemed to be associated with functional recovery following the injury. This discovery may have important clinical applications for monitoring of a variety of inflammatory myopathies as well as novel applications in monitoring of the musculoskeletal health status of workers, professional athletes and/or military personnel to reduce the onset of potentially debilitating musculoskeletal injuries within these professions.

Developing targets and strategies for school-based injury prevention programs to reduce alcohol associated transport risks

Background There is considerable and ongoing debate about the role and effectiveness of school-based injury prevention programs in reducing students’ later involvement in alcohol associated transport injuries. Most relevant literature is concerned with pre-driving and licensing programs for middle age range adolescents (15-17 years). This research team is concerned with prevention at an earlier stage by targeting interventions to young adolescents (13-14 years). There is strong evidence that young adolescents who engage in unsafe and illegal alcohol associated transport risks are significantly likely to incur serious related injuries in longitudinal follow up. For example, a state-wide representative sample of male adolescents (mean age 14.5 years) who reported being passengers of drink drivers were significantly more likely to have incurred a hospitalised injury related to traffic events at a 20 year follow up. Aim This paper reports on first aid training integrated with peer protection and school connectedness within the Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY) program. A component of the intervention is concerned with providing strategies to reduce the likelihood of being a passenger of a drink driver and effectiveness is followed up at six months post-intervention. Method In early 2012 the study was undertaken in 35 high schools throughout Queensland that were randomly assigned to intervention and control conditions. A total of 2,521 Year 9 students (mean age 13.5years, 43% male) completed surveys prior to the intervention. Results Of these students 316 (13.7%) reported having ridden in a car with someone who has been drinking. This is a traffic safety behaviour that is particularly relevant to a peer protection intervention and the findings of the six month follow up will be reported. Discussion and conclusions This research will provide evidence as to whether this approach to the introduction of first aid skills within a school-based health education curriculum has traffic safety implications.

Accurate pattern prediction of very closely spaced mismatched antennas using measured active element patterns

A method for prediction of the radiation pattern of N strongly coupled antennas with mismatched sources is presented. The method facilitates fast and accurate design of compact arrays. The prediction is based on the measured N-port S parameters of the coupled antennas and the N active element patterns measured in a 50 ω environment. By introducing equivalent power sources, the radiation pattern with excitation by sources with arbitrary impedances and various decoupling and matching networks (DMN) can be accurately predicted without the need for additional measurements. Two experiments were carried out for verification: pattern prediction for parasitic antennas with different loads and for antennas with DMN. The difference between measured and predicted patterns was within 1 to 2 dB.

A framework for cost-aware process management : cost reporting and cost prediction

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency gains for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables detailed cost reporting of business operations for decision making purposes, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Process mining, on the other hand, may provide valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded in logs by IT systems, but its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, a framework is proposed which aims to exploit the strengths of both fields in order to better support management decisions on cost control. This is achieved by automatically merging cost data with historical data from event logs for the purposes of monitoring, predicting, and reporting process-related costs. The on-demand generation of accurate, relevant and timely cost reports, in a style akin to reports in the area of management accounting, will also be illustrated. This is achieved through extending the open-source process mining framework ProM.