Levels and predictors of exercise referral scheme uptake and adherence: A systematic review

Background The effectiveness of exercise referral schemes (ERS) is influenced by uptake and adherence to the scheme. The identification of factors influencing low uptake and adherence could lead to the refinement of schemes to optimise investment. Objectives To quantify the levels of ERS uptake and adherence and to identify factors predictive of uptake and adherence. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was undertaken. MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI WOS, SPORTDiscus and ongoing trial registries were searched (to October 2009) and included study references were checked. Included studies were required to report at least one of the following: (1) a numerical measure of ERS uptake or adherence and (2) an estimate of the statistical association between participant demographic or psychosocial factors (eg, level of motivation, self-efficacy) or programme factors and uptake or adherence to ERS. Results Twenty studies met the inclusion criteria, six randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and 14 observational studies. The pooled level of uptake in ERS was 66% (95% CI 57% to 75%) across the observational studies and 81% (95% CI 68% to 94%) across the RCTs. The pooled level of ERS adherence was 49% (95% CI 40% to 59%) across the observational studies and 43% (95% CI 32% to 54%) across the RCTs. Few studies considered anything other than gender and age. Women were more likely to begin an ERS but were less likely to adhere to it than men. Older people were more likely to begin and adhere to an ERS. Limitations Substantial heterogeneity was evident across the ERS studies. Without standardised definitions, the heterogeneity may have been reflective of differences in methods of defining uptake and adherence across studies. Conclusions To enhance our understanding of the variation in uptake and adherence across ERS and how these variations might affect physical activity outcomes, future trials need to use quantitative and qualitative methods.

Peritoneal washing cytology

Peritoneal washing cytology (PWC) is a useful indicator of ovarian surface involvement and peritoneal dissemination by ovarian tumours. It may identify subclinical peritoneal spread and thus provide valuable staging and prognostic information, particularly for non-serous ovarian tumours. The role of PWC as a prognostic indicator for endometrial carcinoma is less clear, due in part to the questionable significance of identifying endometrial tumour cells in the peritoneum. Detection of metastatic carcinoma in PWC is based on recognition of non-mesothelial cell characteristics, however a number of conditions such as reactive mesothelial cells, endometriosis and endosalpingiosis may mimic this appearance. Cells from these conditions may have a similar presentation in PWC to that of serous borderline tumours and low grade serous carcinoma. The presence of cilia, lack of single atypical cells, prominent cytoplasmic vacuolation, marked nuclear atypia or two distinct cell populations are features favouring a benign process. Attention to these features along with close correlation with clinical history and the results of surgical pathology should help avoid errors. Additional assistance may be provided by the use of cell blocks and special stains.

Crude oil and agricultural futures: An analysis of correlation dynamics

Correlations between oil and agricultural commodities have varied over previous decades, impacted by renewable fuels policy and turbulent economic conditions. We estimate smooth transition conditional correlation models for 12 agricultural commodities and WTI crude oil. While a structural change in correlations occurred concurrently with the introduction of biofuel policy, oil and food price levels are also key influences. High correlation between biofuel feedstocks and oil is more likely to occur when food and oil price levels are high. Correlation with oil returns is strong for biofuel feedstocks, unlike with other agricultural futures, suggesting limited contagion from energy to food markets.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Medication errors in residential aged care facilities: A distributed cognition analysis of the information exchange process

Background Medication safety is a pressing concern for residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies in RACF settings identify inadequate communication between RACFs, doctors, hospitals and community pharmacies as the major cause of medication errors. Existing literature offers limited insight about the gaps in the existing information exchange process that may lead to medication errors. The aim of this research was to explicate the cognitive distribution that underlies RACF medication ordering and delivery to identify gaps in medication-related information exchange which lead to medication errors in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs in Sydney, Australia. Data were generated through ethnographic field work over a period of five months (May–September 2011). Triangulated analysis of data primarily focused on examining the transformation and exchange of information between different media across the process. Results The findings of this study highlight the extensive scope and intense nature of information exchange in RACF medication ordering and delivery. Rather than attributing error to individual care providers, the explication of distributed cognition processes enabled the identification of gaps in three information exchange dimensions which potentially contribute to the occurrence of medication errors namely: (1) design of medication charts which complicates order processing and record keeping (2) lack of coordination mechanisms between participants which results in misalignment of local practices (3) reliance on restricted communication bandwidth channels mainly telephone and fax which complicates the information processing requirements. The study demonstrates how the identification of these gaps enhances understanding of medication errors in RACFs. Conclusions Application of the theoretical lens of distributed cognition can assist in enhancing our understanding of medication errors in RACFs through identification of gaps in information exchange. Understanding the dynamics of the cognitive process can inform the design of interventions to manage errors and improve residents’ safety.

Testing against changing correlation

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility in the individual series. Unlike standard moment-based tests, the score-based test statistic includes information on the level of correlation under the null hypothesis and local power arguments indicate the benefits of doing so. A simulation study shows that the performance of the score-based test is strong relative to existing tests across a range of data generating processes. An application to the Hong Kong and South Korean equity markets shows that the new test reveals changes in correlation that are not detected by the standard moment-based test.

A study of errors that can occur when weighing infants

When infants are weighed at well baby or infant welfare clinics, the weight change from one visit to the next is used as a guide to the welfare of the child. Infant welfare clinic nurses are expert clinicians who use weight measurements as a rough indicator of well-being only, as it is well known by them that these measurements are fraught with error. This paper calculates the amount of error which was found in repeated tests of weights of infants, and in the weight changes brought about by biological variation. As a result, it is recommended that babies under nine months of age be weighed at clinic visits no less than a fortnight apart, and older infants, at least one month apart. If they are weighed more often, then the weight changes detected will be less than the amount of error which affects the measurements.

Clinical reasoning: The relative contribution of identification, interpretation and hypothesis errors to misdiagnosis

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the types of errors in clinical reasoning that contribute to poor diagnostic performance at different levels of medical training and experience. Three cohorts of subjects, second- and fourth- (final) year medical students and a group of general practitioners, completed a set of clinical reasoning problems. The responses of those whose scores fell below the 25th centile were analysed to establish the stage of the clinical reasoning process - identification of relevant information, interpretation or hypothesis generation - at which most errors occurred and whether this was dependent on problem difficulty and level of medical experience. Results indicate that hypothesis errors decrease as expertise increases but that identification and interpretation errors increase. This may be due to inappropriate use of pattern recognition or to failure of the knowledge base. Furthermore, although hypothesis errors increased in line with problem difficulty, identification and interpretation errors decreased. A possible explanation is that as problem difficulty increases, subjects at all levels of expertise are less able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant clinical features and so give equal consideration to all information contained within a case. It is concluded that the development of clinical reasoning in medical students throughout the course of their pre-clinical and clinical education may be enhanced by both an analysis of the clinical reasoning process and a specific focus on each of the stages at which errors commonly occur.