Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Chinese economic development and the environment

Over the past two decades, China has become an economic powerhouse. However, as the world’s largest producer of CO2 emissions, the scale and seriousness of China’s environmental problems are clearly evident. This pioneering book provides an economic analysis of the significant environmental and energy problems facing China in the 21st century.

Trade-induced technological change : analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963-2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.

Mobility in the child (and carer) friendly city : SEQ vs. Stockholm

The rationale for providing state subsidised public transport has changed over time from a social obligation to provide transport options for those without access to private transport to an environmental and economic imperative to minimize congestion and greenhouse gas emissions. In many jurisdictions this shift has seen a greater focus on the provision of peak hour commuter services and a shift in the demographic profile of the riding public and a significant increase in the number of commuter passengers relative to others. The scheduling of commuter services is not geared to meet the needs of children and their generally female carers who often need to engage in trip chaining and travel outside peak commuting periods and on weekends. In addition to service scheduling difficulties, transport infrastructure, both on-board and supporting infrastructure such as bus stops, train stations and connecting footpaths often do not support children and their carers to use public transport services. Combined with a negative attitude by passengers and service providers, such as bus drivers, which may see children, babies and young people as out of place and unwelcome on commuter services, these issues conspire to hinder the use of public transport by children and their carers. Overlaying feminist geography analysis and insights and child-friendly cities objectives, this paper proposes some basic criteria for the provision of public transport services and supporting infrastructure which meets the needs of children, babies and their carers and juxtaposes the achievement of these in South East Queensland, Australia and Stockholm, Sweden.

Quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making : applications in New Caledonia and Australia

This thesis deals with the issues of quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making. The first analytical part of the thesis focuses on estimating non-market use and non-use values, with an application in New-Caledonia using Discrete Choice Experiment. The second part examines how and to what extent the economic valuation of ecosystem services is used in coastal management decision-making with an application in Australia. Using a multi-criteria analysis, the relative importance of ecological, social and economic evaluation criteria is also assessed in the context of coastal development.

A contextual analysis of secondary home economic teachers' agency in a time of mandatory curriculum change

This qualitative research explored secondary Home Economics teachers' perceptions of their teacher agency to influence classroom, department and school level curriculum decision making. Teachers responded to curriculum change with proactive, reactive and/or passive agency. Findings indicated that teachers' perceptions of their classroom agency remained high. However, agency decreased at department and school levels. Recent changes in schools as a result of the Australian Curriculum; NAPLAN and Queensland Studies Authority have resulted in changes that have been detrimental to teacher agency. Agency was enacted differently depending on whether change was teacher initiated or mandated by authority.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Clinical and economic outcomes of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care

Optimal nutrition across the continuum of care plays a key role in the short- and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of patients. Worldwide, an estimated one-quarter to one-half of patients admitted to hospitals each year are malnourished. Malnutrition can increase healthcare costs by delaying patient recovery and rehabilitation and increasing the risk of medical complications. Nutrition interventions have the potential to provide cost-effective preventive care and treatment measures. However, limited data exist on the economics and impact evaluations of these interventions. In this report, nutrition and health system researchers, clinicians, economists, and policymakers discuss emerging global research on nutrition health economics, the role of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care, and how nutrition can affect healthcare costs in the context of hospital malnutrition.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

On the (ir)relevance of rates of return measures of economic performance to small boats

A common measure of the economic performance of different fleet segments in fisheries is the rate of return on capital. However, in the English Channel (UK), observed changes in the fleet structure are at odds with expectations given the observed rates of return on capital. This disjunction between expected and observed behaviour raises the question as to the appropriateness of rate of return on capital as a measure of economic performance for small boats whose main input is often non-wage labour. In this paper, an alternative performance indicator is developed based on returns on owner-operator labour. This indicator appears to be of more relevance to small scale boats than the traditional returns on capital, and a better indicator of the direction of adjustment in the fishery.

Economic Analysis and Policy moves forward

As Editor of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) I am delighted to announce that EAP is now published by Elsevier. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch). As a result of this move, four issues of EAP will be published per year instead of the current three. This will include special issues. EAP will now receive wider coverage in the relevant abstracting and indexing services...