Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Insect mitochondrial genomics : implications for evolution and phylogeny

The mitochondrial (mt) genome is, to date, the most extensively studied genomic system in insects, outnumbering nuclear genomes tenfold and representing all orders versus very few. Phylogenomic analysis methods have been tested extensively, identifying compositional bias and rate variation, both within and between lineages, as the principal issues confronting accurate analyses. Major studies at both inter- and intraordinal levels have contributed to our understanding of phylogenetic relationships within many groups. Genome rearrangements are an additional data type for defining relationships, with rearrangement synapomorphies identified across multiple orders and at many different taxonomic levels. Hymenoptera and Psocodea have greatly elevated rates of rearrangement offering both opportunities and pitfalls for identifying rearrangement synapomorphies in each group. Finally, insects are model systems for studying aberrant mt genomes, including truncated tRNAs and multichromosomal genomes. Greater integration of nuclear and mt genomic studies is necessary to further our understanding of insect genomic evolution.

Learning and teaching epidemiology with audience response technology

Background The learning and teaching of epidemiology is core to many public health programs. Many students find the content of epidemiology, and specifically risk of bias assessment, challenging to learn. Howbeit, learning is enhanced when knowledge is able to be acquired from an active-learning, hands-on experience. Methods The innovative use of wireless audience response technology “clickers” was incorporated into the lectures of the university’s post-graduate epidemiology units and the tailored epidemiological modules delivered for professional disciplines (e.g. optometry). Clickers were used to apply several pedagogical approaches of active learning including peer-instruction and real-world simulation. Students were also assessed for their gain in knowledge within the lecture (pre-post) and their perceptions of how the use of clickers helped them learn. The routine university-wide end of semester Insight Survey provided further information of the student’s satisfaction with the approach. Results The technology was useful in identifying deficits of knowledge of key concepts either before or after instruction. Where key concepts were re-tested post-lecture, as expected, knowledge increased significantly and provided immediate feed-back to students. Across the lecture series, typically 85% of students identified the technology helped them learn, increased their opportunity to interact with the lecturer, and recommend their use for future classes. The Insight Survey report identified 93% of respondents identified the unit in which clickers were consistently used provided good learning opportunities. Numerous student comments supported the teaching method. Conclusions Epidemiological subject matter lends itself to incorporation of audience response technology. The use of the technology to facilitate interactive voting provides an instant response and participation of everyone to enhance the classroom experience. The pedagogical approach increases students’ knowledge and increases their satisfaction with the unit.

Do community-wide interventions increase physical activity? S1TEP

Background Not getting enough physical activity leads to poorer health. Regular physical activity can reduce the risk of chronic disease and improve one’s health and well-being. The lack of physical activity is a common and growing problem in many countries. We sought to evaluate the effects of community wide, multi-strategic interventions upon the physical activity patterns of populations. Method We undertook a Cochrane Systematic Review which included an extensive search of databases, including studies which met pre-determined criteria, and conducted independent risk of bias assessment and data extraction. Results After the selection process, 25 studies were included in the review. The strategies varied by the number and type of components and their intensity. No studies were identified as low risk of bias. Sixteen studies were identified as having a high risk of bias and thus untrustworthy. Nine studies were of considered to have an unclear risk of bias and some studies held back data they collected. The effects reported were inconsistent across the studies and the measures. Some of the better designed studies showed no improvement in measures of physical activity. Interventions which have an environmental change component seemed to be a promising direction. Those interventions which were primarily a mass media campaign were less likely to be successful. Conclusions Although numerous studies have been undertaken, there is considerable inconsistency in the findings of the available studies and this is confounded by serious methodological issues within the included studies. Simply combining interventions does not necessarily result in increased physical activity as many such studies, including some long term programs, failed to demonstrate efficacy. There is a clear need for well-designed studies and these studies should focus on the quality of measurement of physical activity. The review is currently being updated with newer studies.

Is bus overrepresented in Bluetooth MAC Scanner data? Is MAC-ID really unique?

One of the concerns about the use of Bluetooth MAC Scanner (BMS) data, especially from urban arterial, is the bias in the travel time estimates from multiple Bluetooth devices being transported by a vehicle. For instance, if a bus is transporting 20 passengers with Bluetooth equipped mobile phones, then the discovery of these mobile phones by BMS will be considered as 20 different vehicles, and the average travel time along the corridor estimated from the BMS data will be biased with the travel time from the bus. This paper integrates Bus Vehicle Identification system with BMS network to empirically evaluate such bias, if any. The paper also reports an interesting finding on the uniqueness of MAC IDs.

An improved distinguisher for dragon

Dragon stream cipher is one of the focus ciphers which have reached Phase 2 of the eSTREAMproject. In this paper, we present a new method of building a linear distinguisher for Dragon. The distinguisher is constructed by exploiting the biases of two S-boxes and the modular addition which are basic components of the nonlinear function F. The bias of the distinguisher is estimated to be around 2−75.32 which is better than the bias of the distinguisher presented by Englund and Maximov. We have shown that Dragon is distinguishable from a random cipher by using around 2150.6 keystream words and 259 memory. In addition, we present a very efficient algorithm for computing the bias of linear approximation of modular addition.

Clinical use of objective measures of physical activity

With measurement of physical activity becoming more common in clinical practice, it is imperative that healthcare professionals become more knowledgeable about the different methods available to objectively measure physical activity behaviour. Objective measures do not rely on information provided by the patient, but instead measure and record the biomechanical or physiological consequences of performing physical activity, often in real time. As such, objective measures are not subject to the reporting bias or recall problems associated with self-report methods. The purpose of this article was to provide an overview of the different methods used to objectively measure physical activity in clinical practice. The review was delimited to heart rate monitoring, accelerometers and pedometers since their small size, low participant burden and relatively low cost make these objective measures appropriate for use in clinical practice settings. For each measure, strengths and weakness were discussed; and whenever possible, literature-based examples of implementation were provided.

Editorial

The Scientific Social Planning Committee was in a fantastic position to design this programme, with over 270 abstracts representing a broad range of nutrition and dietetics areas, translating evidence to practice. When reviewing the abstract submissions, clear themes emerged, including those related to the nutrition and dietetics workforce and how to deliver effective outcomes that make meaningful differences to people's lives, while also equitable and sustainable. These papers challenge us to reflect on ourselves as health professionals, including our knowledge, how confident we are in what we do and what bias we may bring to the table when dealing with health issues, for example, in relation to weight management...

Calibration and comparison of accelerometer cut points in preschool children

Objective The present study aimed to develop accelerometer cut points to classify physical activities (PA) by intensity in preschoolers and to investigate discrepancies in PA levels when applying various accelerometer cut points. Methods To calibrate the accelerometer, 18 preschoolers (5.8 +/- 0.4 years) performed eleven structured activities and one free play session while wearing a GT1M ActiGraph accelerometer using 15 s epochs. The structured activities were chosen based on the direct observation system Children's Activity Rating Scale (CARS) while the criterion measure of PA intensity during free play was provided using a second-by-second observation protocol (modified CARS). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were used to determine the accelerometer cut points. To examine the classification differences, accelerometer data of four consecutive days from 114 preschoolers (5.5 +/- 0.3 years) were classified by intensity according to previously published and the newly developed accelerometer cut points. Differences in predicted PA levels were evaluated using repeated measures ANOVA and Chi Square test. Results Cut points were identified at 373 counts/15 s for light (sensitivity: 86%; specificity: 91%; Area under ROC curve: 0.95), 585 counts/15 s for moderate (87%; 82%; 0.91) and 881 counts/15 s for vigorous PA (88%; 91%; 0.94). Further, applying various accelerometer cut points to the same data resulted in statistically and biologically significant differences in PA. Conclusions Accelerometer cut points were developed with good discriminatory power for differentiating between PA levels in preschoolers and the choice of accelerometer cut points can result in large discrepancies.

Discerning the timing and cause of historical mortality events in modern Porites from the Great Barrier Reef

The life history strategies of massive Porites corals make them a valuable resource not only as key providers of reef structure, but also as recorders of past environmental change. Yet recent documented evidence of an unprecedented increase in the frequency of mortality in Porites warrants investigation into the history of mortality and associated drivers. To achieve this, both an accurate chronology and an understanding of the life history strategies of Porites are necessary. Sixty-two individual Uranium–Thorium (U–Th) dates from 50 dead massive Porites colonies from the central inshore region of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed the timing of mortality to have occurred predominantly over two main periods from 1989.2 ± 4.1 to 2001.4 ± 4.1, and from 2006.4 ± 1.8 to 2008.4 ± 2.2 A.D., with a small number of colonies dating earlier. Overall, the peak ages of mortality are significantly correlated with maximum sea-surface temperature anomalies. Despite potential sampling bias, the frequency of mortality increased dramatically post-1980. These observations are similar to the results reported for the Southern South China Sea. High resolution measurements of Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca obtained from a well preserved sample that died in 1994.6 ± 2.3 revealed that the time of death occurred at the peak of sea surface temperatures (SST) during the austral summer. In contrast, Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca analysis in two colonies dated to 2006.9 ± 3.0 and 2008.3 ± 2.0, suggest that both died after the austral winter. An increase in Sr/Ca ratios and the presence of low Mg-calcite cements (as determined by SEM and elemental ratio analysis) in one of the colonies was attributed to stressful conditions that may have persisted for some time prior to mortality. For both colonies, however, the timing of mortality coincides with the 4th and 6th largest flood events reported for the Burdekin River in the past 60 years, implying that factors associated with terrestrial runoff may have been responsible for mortality. Our results show that a combination of U–Th and elemental ratio geochemistry can potentially be used to precisely and accurately determine the timing and season of mortality in modern massive Porites corals. For reefs where long-term monitoring data are absent, the ability to reconstruct historical events in coral communities may prove useful to reef managers by providing some baseline knowledge on disturbance history and associated drivers.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Polarization of forecast densities : a new approach to time series classification

Time series classification has been extensively explored in many fields of study. Most methods are based on the historical or current information extracted from data. However, if interest is in a specific future time period, methods that directly relate to forecasts of time series are much more appropriate. An approach to time series classification is proposed based on a polarization measure of forecast densities of time series. By fitting autoregressive models, forecast replicates of each time series are obtained via the bias-corrected bootstrap, and a stationarity correction is considered when necessary. Kernel estimators are then employed to approximate forecast densities, and discrepancies of forecast densities of pairs of time series are estimated by a polarization measure, which evaluates the extent to which two densities overlap. Following the distributional properties of the polarization measure, a discriminant rule and a clustering method are proposed to conduct the supervised and unsupervised classification, respectively. The proposed methodology is applied to both simulated and real data sets, and the results show desirable properties.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Crossword puzzle attack on NLS

NLS is one of the stream ciphers submitted to the eSTREAM project. We present a distinguishing attack on NLS by Crossword Puzzle (CP) attack method which is introduced in this paper. We build the distinguisher by using linear approximations of both the non-linear feedback shift register (NFSR) and the nonlinear filter function (NLF). Since the bias of the distinguisher depends on the Konst value, which is a key-dependent word, we present the graph showing how the bias of distinguisher vary with Konst. In result, we estimate the bias of the distinguisher to be around O(2^−30). Therefore, we claim that NLS is distinguishable from truly random cipher after observing O(2^60) keystream words. The experiments also show that our distinguishing attack is successful on 90.3% of Konst among 2^32 possible values. We extend the CP attack to NLSv2 which is a tweaked version of NLS. In result, we build a distinguisher which has the bias of around 2− 48. Even though this attack is below the eSTREAM criteria (2^−40), the security margin of NLSv2 seems to be too low.

Distinguishing attack on SOBER-128 with linear masking

We present a distinguishing attack against SOBER-128 with linear masking. We found a linear approximation which has a bias of 2^− − 8.8 for the non-linear filter. The attack applies the observation made by Ekdahl and Johansson that there is a sequence of clocks for which the linear combination of some states vanishes. This linear dependency allows that the linear masking method can be applied. We also show that the bias of the distinguisher can be improved (or estimated more precisely) by considering quadratic terms of the approximation. The probability bias of the quadratic approximation used in the distinguisher is estimated to be equal to O(2^− − 51.8), so that we claim that SOBER-128 is distinguishable from truly random cipher by observing O(2^103.6) keystream words.