Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

FGFR2 mutations are rare across histologic subtypes of ovarian cancer

OBJECTIVE: Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynecologic malignancies in the Western world. Fibroblast growth factor receptor (FGFR) signaling has been implicated to play a role in ovarian tumorigenesis. Mutational activation of one member of this receptor family, FGFR2, is a frequent event in endometrioid endometrial cancer. Given the similarities in the histologic and molecular genetics of ovarian and endometrial cancers, we hypothesized that activating FGFR2 mutations may occur in a subset of endometrioid ovarian tumors, and possibly other histotypes. METHODS: Six FGFR2 exons were sequenced in 120 primary ovarian tumors representing the major histologic subtypes. RESULTS: FGFR2 mutation was detected at low frequency in endometrioid (1/46, 2.2%) and serous (1/41, 2.4%) ovarian cancer. No mutations were detected in clear cell, mucinous, or mixed histology tumors or in the ovarian cancer cell lines tested. Functional characterization of the FGFR2 mutations confirmed that the mutations detected in ovarian cancer result in receptor activation. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the low incidence of FGFR2 mutations in ovarian cancer, the two FGFR2 mutations identified in ovarian tumors (S252W, Y376C) overlap with the oncogenic mutations previously identified in endometrial tumors, suggesting activated FGFR2 may contribute to ovarian cancer pathogenesis in a small subset of ovarian tumors.

Experimental and finite element analysis of a double strap joint between steel plates and normal modulus CFRP

Strengthening of steel structures using externally-bonded carbon fibre reinforced polymers ‘CFRP’ is a rapidly developing technique. This paper describes the behaviour of axially loaded flat steel plates strengthened using carbon fibre reinforced polymer sheets. Two steel plates were joined together with adhesive and followed by the application of carbon fibre sheet double strap joint with different bond lengths. The behaviour of the specimens was further investigated by using nonlinear finite element analysis to predict the failure modes and load capacity. In this study, bond failure is the dominant failure mode for normal modulus (240 GPa) CFRP bonding which closely matched the results of finite elements. The predicted ultimate loads from the FE analysis are found to be in good agreement with experimental values.

Executive coaching : investigating effects of leader-empowering behaviours and psychological empowerment

Executive coaching is a rapidly expanding approach to leadership development which has grown at a rate that warrants extensive examination of its effects (Wasylyshyn, 2003). This thesis has therefore examined both behavioural and psychological effects based on a nine month executive coaching intervention within a large not-for-profit organisation. The intervention was a part of a larger ongoing integrated organisational strategy to create an organisational coaching culture. In order to examine the effectiveness of the nine month executive coaching intervention two studies were conducted. A quantitative study used a pre and post questionnaire to examine leaders and their team members‘ responses before and after the coaching intervention. The research examined leader-empowering behaviours, psychological empowerment, job satisfaction and affective commitment. Significant results were demonstrated from leaders‘ self-reports on leader-empowering behaviours and their team members‘ self-reports revealed a significant flow on effect of psychological empowerment. The second part of the investigation involved a qualitative study which explored the developmental nature of psychological empowerment through executive coaching. The examination dissected psychological empowerment into its widely accepted four facets of meaning, impact, competency and self-determination and investigated, through semi-structured interviews, leaders‘ perspectives of the effect of executive coaching upon them (Spreitzer, 1992). It was discovered that a number of the common practices within executive coaching, including goal-setting, accountability and action-reflection, contributed to the production of outcomes that developed higher levels of psychological empowerment. Careful attention was also given to organisational context and its influence upon the outcomes.

The symbiosis of improvised and rehearsed elements in the creation of contemporary jazz ensemble music

This research investigates the symbiotic relationship between composition and improvisation and the notion of improvisation itself. With a specific interest in developing, extending and experimenting with the relationship of improvisation within predetermined structures, the creative work component of this research involved composing six new works with varying approaches for The Andrea Keller Quartet and guest improvisers, for performance on a National Australian tour. This is documented in the CD recording Galumphing Round the Nation - Collaborations Tour 2009. The exegesis component is intended to run alongside the creative work and discusses the central issues surrounding improvisation in an ensemble context and the subject of composing for improvisers. Specifically, it questions the notion that when music emphasises a higher ratio of spontaneous to pre-determined elements, and is exposed to the many variables of a performance context, particularly through its incorporation of visitant improvisers, the resultant music should potentially be measurably altered with each performance. This practice-led research demonstrates the effect of concepts such as individuality, variability within context, and the interactive qualities of contemporary jazz ensemble music. Through the analysis and comparison of the treatment of the six pieces over thirteen performances with varying personnel, this exegesis proposes that, despite the expected potential for spontaneity in contemporary jazz music, the presence of established patterns, the desire for familiarity and the intuitive tendency towards accepted protocols ensure that the music which emerges is not as mutable as initially anticipated.

The beliefs which motivate young male and female drivers to speed : a comparison of low and high intenders

In Australia, young drivers aged 17 to 24 years, and particularly males, have the highest risk of being involved in a fatal crash. Investigation of young drivers’ beliefs allows for a greater understanding of their involvement in risky behaviours, such as speeding, as beliefs are associated with intentions, the antecedent to behaviour. The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) was used to conceptualise beliefs using a scenario based questionnaire distributed to licensed drivers (N = 398). The questionnaire measured individual’s beliefs and intentions to speed in a particular situation. Consistent with a TPB-based approach, the beliefs of those with low intentions to speed (‘low intenders’) were compared with the beliefs of those with high intentions (‘high intenders’) with such comparisons conducted separately for males and females. Overall, significant differences in the beliefs held by low and high intenders and for both females and males were found. Specifically, for females, it was found that high intenders were significantly more likely to perceive advantages of speeding, less likely to perceive disadvantages, and more likely to be encouraged to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads than female low intenders. Females, however, did not differ in their perceptions of support from friends, with all females reporting some level of disapproval from most friends and all females (i.e., low and high intenders) reporting approval to speed from their male friends. The results for males revealed that high intenders were significantly more likely to speed on familiar and inappropriately signed roads as well as having greater perceptions of support from all friends, except from those friends with whom they worked. Low and high intending males did not differ in their perceptions of the advantages and disadvantages of speeding, with the exception of feelings of excitement whereby high intenders reported speeding to be more exciting than low intenders. The findings are discussed in terms of how they may directly inform the content of mass media and public education campaigns aimed at encouraging young drivers to slow down.

Numerical exploration of plastic deformation mechanisms of copper nanowires with surface defects

Based on the molecular dynamics simulation, plastic deformation mechanisms associated with the zigzag stress curves in perfect and surface defected copper nanowires under uniaxial tension are studied. In our previous study, it has found that the surface defect exerts larger influence than the centro-plane defect, and the 45o surface defect appears as the most influential surface defect. Hence, in this paper, the nanowire with a 45o surface defect is chosen to investigate the defect’s effect to the plastic deformation mechanism of nanowires. We find that during the plastic deformation of both perfect and defected nanowires, decrease regions of the stress curve are accompanied with stacking faults generation and migration activities, but during stress increase, the structure of the nanowire appears almost unchanged. We also observe that surface defects have obvious influence on the nanowire’s plastic deformation mechanisms. In particular, only two sets of slip planes are found to be active and twins are also observed in the defected nanowire.

Why adopt now? Multiple case studies and survey studies comparing small, medium and large firms

While a number of factors have been highlighted in the innovation adoption literature, little is known about whether different factors are related to innovation adoption in differently-sized firms. We used preliminary case studies of small, medium and large firms to ground our hypotheses, which were then tested using a survey of 94 firms. We found that external stakeholder pressure and non-financial readiness were related to innovation adoption in SMEs; but that for large firms, adoption was related to the opportunity to innovate. It may be that the difficulties of adopting innovations, including both the financial cost and the effort involved, are too great for SMEs to overcome unless there is either a compelling need (external pressure) or enough in-house capability (non-financial readiness). This suggests that SMEs are more likely to have innovation “pushed” onto them while large firms are more likely to “pull” innovations when they have the opportunity.

Having a yarn about smoking : using action research to develop a 'no smoking' policy within an Aboriginal health organisation

Objectives: This article reports on a culturally appropriate process of development of a smoke-free workplace policy within the peak Aboriginal Controlled Community Health Organisation in Victoria, Australia. Smoking is acknowledged as being responsible for at least 20% of all deaths in Aboriginal communities in Australia, and many Aboriginal health workers smoke. Methods: The smoke-free workplace policy was developed using the iterative, discursive and experience-based methodology of Participatory Action Research, combined with the culturally embedded concept of ‘having a yarn’. Results: Staff members initially identified smoking as a topic to be avoided within workplace discussions. This was due, in part, to grief (everyone had suffered a smoking related bereavement). Further, there was anxiety that discussing smoking would result in culturally difficult conflict. The use of yarning opened up a safe space for discussion and debate,enabling development of a policy that was accepted across the organisation. Conclusions: Within Aboriginal organisations, it is not sufficient to focus on the outcomes of policy development. Rather, due attention must be paid to the process employed in development of policy, particularly when that policy is directly related to an emotionally and communally weighted topic such as smoking.

Quantification of the accuracy of MRI generated 3D models of long bones compared to CT generated 3D models

Orthopaedic fracture fixation implants are increasingly being designed using accurate 3D models of long bones based on computer tomography (CT). Unlike CT, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) does not involve ionising radiation and is therefore a desirable alternative to CT. This study aims to quantify the accuracy of MRI-based 3D models compared to CT-based 3D models of long bones. The femora of five intact cadaver ovine limbs were scanned using a 1.5T MRI and a CT scanner. Image segmentation of CT and MRI data was performed using a multi-threshold segmentation method. Reference models were generated by digitising the bone surfaces free of soft tissue with a mechanical contact scanner. The MRI- and CT-derived models were validated against the reference models. The results demonstrated that the CT-based models contained an average error of 0.15mm while the MRI-based models contained an average error of 0.23mm. Statistical validation shows that there are no significant differences between 3D models based on CT and MRI data. These results indicate that the geometric accuracy of MRI based 3D models was comparable to that of CT-based models and therefore MRI is a potential alternative to CT for generation of 3D models with high geometric accuracy.

Molecular classification of cutaneous malignant melanoma by gene expression profiling

The most common human cancers are malignant neoplasms of the skin. Incidence of cutaneous melanoma is rising especially steeply, with minimal progress in non-surgical treatment of advanced disease. Despite significant effort to identify independent predictors of melanoma outcome, no accepted histopathological, molecular or immunohistochemical marker defines subsets of this neoplasm. Accordingly, though melanoma is thought to present with different 'taxonomic' forms, these are considered part of a continuous spectrum rather than discrete entities. Here we report the discovery of a subset of melanomas identified by mathematical analysis of gene expression in a series of samples. Remarkably, many genes underlying the classification of this subset are differentially regulated in invasive melanomas that form primitive tubular networks in vitro, a feature of some highly aggressive metastatic melanomas. Global transcript analysis can identify unrecognized subtypes of cutaneous melanoma and predict experimentally verifiable phenotypic characteristics that may be of importance to disease progression.

Targeting mutant fibroblast growth factor receptors in cancer

Fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFRs) play diverse roles in the control of cell proliferation, cell differentiation, angiogenesis and development. Activating the mutations of FGFRs in the germline has long been known to cause a variety of skeletal developmental disorders, but it is only recently that a similar spectrum of somatic FGFR mutations has been associated with human cancers. Many of these somatic mutations are gain-of-function and oncogenic and create dependencies in tumor cell lines harboring such mutations. A combination of knockdown studies and pharmaceutical inhibition in preclinical models has further substantiated genomically altered FGFR as a therapeutic target in cancer, and the oncology community is responding with clinical trials evaluating multikinase inhibitors with anti-FGFR activity and a new generation of specific pan-FGFR inhibitors.

Contesting lost ground for the middle years in Australia : using the case study of Queensland

Over the past twenty years Australia has witnessed an extraordinary rise of the middle year’s movement. In more recent years, however, there is concern that middle years has fallen from the mainstream education agenda (Australian Research Alliance for Children and Youth, 2011). At a national level, evidence of this fall can be seen in the new national curriculum frameworks where reference to middle years is significantly absent, such as The Shape of the Australian Curriculum Version 2.0, (Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority, 2010). Evidence of the fall at a state level can be seen in Queensland Government’s 2015 commencement of junior secondary, rather than middle years, as outlined in A Flying Start for Queensland children: Why year 7 will be part of high school from 2015 (Queensland Government, 2011a). This announcement came after the Queensland government had undertaken an extensive consultation period exploring the possible uptake of middle years at a systemic level. While some may argue that middle years practices can be seen to be embedded in both the national curriculum and the junior secondary reform – it is the fact that middle years practices and philosophies are implicitly embedded (hidden) rather than being made explicitly and systematically mainstreamed (broadly accepted), that causes us grave concern. As such, we argue that this is clear indication that the middle years are being marginalized from the overarching educational agendas in Australia.

Quantifying in-plane deformation of plate elements using vibration characteristics

Plate elements are used in many engineering applications. In-plane loads and deformations have significant influence on the vibration characteristics of plate elements. Numerous methods have been developed to quantify the effects of in-plane loads and deformations of individual plate elements with different boundary conditions based on their natural frequencies. However, these developments cannot be applied to the plate elements in a structural system as the natural frequency is a global parameter for the entire structure. This highlights the need for a method to quantify in-plane deformations of plate elements in structural framing systems. Motivated by this gap in knowledge, this research has developed a comprehensive vibration based procedure to quantify in-plane deformation of plate elements in a structural framing system. This procedure with its unique capabilities to capture the influence of load migration, boundary conditions and different tributary areas is presented herein and illustrated through examples.

CAT Detect (Computer Activity Timeline Detection) : a tool for detecting inconsistency in computer activity timelines

The construction of timelines of computer activity is a part of many digital investigations. These timelines of events are composed of traces of historical activity drawn from system logs and potentially from evidence of events found in the computer file system. A potential problem with the use of such information is that some of it may be inconsistent and contradictory thus compromising its value. This work introduces a software tool (CAT Detect) for the detection of inconsistency within timelines of computer activity. We examine the impact of deliberate tampering through experiments conducted with our prototype software tool. Based on the results of these experiments, we discuss techniques which can be employed to deal with such temporal inconsistencies.