247 resultados para inductive inference


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Objective The objectives of this cross-sectional, analytical inference analysis were to compare shoulder muscle activation at arm elevations of 0° to 90° through different movement planes and speeds during in-water and dry-land exercise and to extrapolate this information to a clinical rehabilitation model. Methods Six muscles of right-handed adult subjects (n = 16; males/females: 50%; age: 26.1 ± 4.5 years) were examined with surface electromyography during arm elevation in water and on dry land. Participants randomly performed 3 elevation movements (flexion, abduction, and scaption) through 0° to 90°. Three movement speeds were used for each movement as determined by a metronome (30°/sec, 45°/sec, and 90°/sec). Dry-land maximal voluntary contraction tests were used to determine movement normalization. Results Muscle activity levels were significantly lower in water compared with dry land at 30°/sec and 45°/sec but significantly higher at 90°/sec. This sequential progressive activation with increased movement speed was proportionally higher on transition from gravity-based on-land activity to water-based isokinetic resistance. The pectoralis major and latissimus dorsi muscles showed higher activity during abduction and scaption. Conclusions These findings on muscle activation suggest protocols in which active flexion is introduced first at low speeds (30°/sec) in water, then at medium speeds (45°/sec) in water or on dry land, and finally at high speeds (90°/sec) on dry land before in water. Abduction requires higher stabilization, necessitating its introduction after flexion, with scaption introduced last. This model of progressive sequential movement ensures that early active motion and then stabilization are appropriately introduced. This should reduce rehabilitation time and improve therapeutic goals without compromising patient safety or introducing inappropriate muscle recruitment or movement speed.

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With the advent of functional neuroimaging techniques, in particular functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we have gained greater insight into the neural correlates of visuospatial function. However, it may not always be easy to identify the cerebral regions most specifically associated with performance on a given task. One approach is to examine the quantitative relationships between regional activation and behavioral performance measures. In the present study, we investigated the functional neuroanatomy of two different visuospatial processing tasks, judgement of line orientation and mental rotation. Twenty-four normal participants were scanned with fMRI using blocked periodic designs for experimental task presentation. Accuracy and reaction time (RT) to each trial of both activation and baseline conditions in each experiment was recorded. Both experiments activated dorsal and ventral visual cortical areas as well as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. More regionally specific associations with task performance were identified by estimating the association between (sinusoidal) power of functional response and mean RT to the activation condition; a permutation test based on spatial statistics was used for inference. There was significant behavioral-physiological association in right ventral extrastriate cortex for the line orientation task and in bilateral (predominantly right) superior parietal lobule for the mental rotation task. Comparable associations were not found between power of response and RT to the baseline conditions of the tasks. These data suggest that one region in a neurocognitive network may be most strongly associated with behavioral performance and this may be regarded as the computationally least efficient or rate-limiting node of the network.

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Research shows that the beliefs individuals hold about knowledge and knowing (epistemic beliefs) influence learning approaches and outcomes. However, little is known about the nature of children’s epistemic beliefs and how best to measure these. In this pilot study, 11 Australian children (in Grade 4 or Grade 6) were asked to ‘draw, write and tell’ about their epistemic beliefs using drawings, written responses and interviews respectively. Drawings were analysed, with the majority of children depicting external, one-way sources of knowledge. The written statements and interviews were analysed using inductive thematic analysis, showing that children predominantly described knowledge acquisition as processes of task-based learning. Interviews also enabled children to describe a wider range of views. These results indicate that the methodological combination of ‘draw, write and tell’ allowed for a deeper understanding of the children’s epistemic beliefs which holds implications for future research.

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A phylogenetic hypothesis for the lepidopteran superfamily Noctuoidea was inferred based on the complete mitochondrial (mt) genomes of 12 species (six newly sequenced). The monophyly of each noctuoid family in the latest classification was well supported. Novel and robust relationships were recovered at the family level, in contrast to previous analyses using nuclear genes. Erebidae was recovered as sister to (Nolidae+(Euteliidae+Noctuidae)), while Notodontidae was sister to all these taxa (the putatively basalmost lineage Oenosandridae was not included). In order to improve phylogenetic resolution using mt genomes, various analytical approaches were tested: Bayesian inference (BI) vs. maximum likelihood (ML), excluding vs. including RNA genes (rRNA or tRNA), and Gblocks treatment. The evolutionary signal within mt genomes had low sensitivity to analytical changes. Inference methods had the most significant influence. Inclusion of tRNAs positively increased the congruence of topologies, while inclusion of rRNAs resulted in a range of phylogenetic relationships varying depending on other analytical factors. The two Gblocks parameter settings had opposite effects on nodal support between the two inference methods. The relaxed parameter (GBRA) resulted in higher support values in BI analyses, while the strict parameter (GBDH) resulted in higher support values in ML analyses.

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Termites have colonized many habitats and are among the most abundant animals in tropical ecosystems, which they modify considerably through their actions. The timing of their rise in abundance and of the dispersal events that gave rise to modern termite lineages is not well understood. To shed light on termite origins and diversification, we sequenced the mitochondrial genome of 48 termite species and combined them with 18 previously sequenced termite mitochondrial genomes for phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses using multiple fossil calibrations. The 66 genomes represent most major clades of termites. Unlike previous phylogenetic studies based on fewer molecular data, our phylogenetic tree is fully resolved for the lower termites. The phylogenetic positions of Macrotermitinae and Apicotermitinae are also resolved as the basal groups in the higher termites, but in the crown termitid groups, including Termitinae + Syntermitinae + Nasutitermitinae + Cubitermitinae, the position of some nodes remains uncertain. Our molecular clock tree indicates that the lineages leading to termites and Cryptocercus roaches diverged 170 Ma (153-196 Ma 95% confidence interval [CI]), that modern Termitidae arose 54 Ma (46-66 Ma 95% CI), and that the crown termitid group arose 40 Ma (35-49 Ma 95% CI). This indicates that the distribution of basal termite clades was influenced by the final stages of the breakup of Pangaea. Our inference of ancestral geographic ranges shows that the Termitidae, which includes more than 75% of extant termite species, most likely originated in Africa or Asia, and acquired their pantropical distribution after a series of dispersal and subsequent diversification events.

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Designing a school library is a complex, costly and demanding process with important educational and social implications for the whole school community. Drawing upon recent research, this paper presents contrasting snapshots of two school libraries to demonstrate the impacts of greater and lesser collaboration in the designing process. After a brief literature review, the paper outlines the research design (qualitative case study, involving collection and inductive thematic analysis of interview data and student drawings). The select findings highlight the varying experiences of each school’s teacher-librarian through the four designing phases of imagining, transitioning, experiencing and reimagining. Based on the study’s findings, the paper concludes that design outcomes are enhanced through collaboration between professional designers and key school stakeholders including teacher-librarians, teachers, principals and students. The findings and recommendations are of potential interest to teacher-librarians, school principals, education authorities, information professionals and library managers, to guide user-centred library planning and resourcing.

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The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

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Driving on an approach to a signalized intersection while distracted is relatively risky, as potential vehicular conflicts and resulting angle collisions tend to be relatively more severe compared to other locations. Given the prevalence and importance of this particular scenario, the objective of this study was to examine the decisions and actions of distracted drivers during the onset of yellow lights. Driving simulator data were obtained from a sample of 69 drivers under baseline and handheld cell phone conditions at the University of Iowa – National Advanced Driving Simulator. Explanatory variables included age, gender, cell phone use, distance to stop-line, and speed. Although there is extensive research on drivers’ responses to yellow traffic signals, the examinations have been conducted from a traditional regression-based approach, which do not necessary provide the underlying relations and patterns among the sampled data. In this paper, we exploit the benefits of both classical statistical inference and data mining techniques to identify the a priori relationships among main effects, non-linearities, and interaction effects. Results suggest that the probability of yellow light running increases with the increase in driving speed at the onset of yellow. Both young (18–25 years) and middle-aged (30–45 years) drivers reveal reduced propensity for yellow light running whilst distracted across the entire speed range, exhibiting possible risk compensation during this critical driving situation. The propensity for yellow light running for both distracted male and female older (50–60 years) drivers is significantly higher. Driver experience captured by age interacts with distraction, resulting in their combined effect having slower physiological response and being distracted particularly risky.

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The behavioral theory of “entrepreneurial bricolage” attempts to understand what entrepreneurs do when faced with challenges and constraints. Most research about bricolage, defined as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker & Nelson 2005: 333), has been qualitative and inductive (Garud & Karnoe, 2003). Although this has created a small body of rich descriptions and interesting insights, little deductive theory has been developed and the relationship between bricolage and firm performance has not been systematically tested. In particular, prior research has suggested bricolage can have both beneficial and harmful effects. Ciborra’s (1996) study of Olivetti suggested that bricolage helped Olivetti to adapt, but simultaneously constrained firm effectiveness. Baker & Nelson (2005) suggested that bricolage may be harmful at very high levels, but more helpful if used judiciously. Other research suggests that firm environments may play an important role in shaping the outcomes of bricolage (Fisher, 2012). In this paper, we theorize and provide preliminary test of the bricolage-performance relationship and how it is affected by environmental dynamism.

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The Australian ageing society with baby boomers reaching retirement age has placed a lot of pressures on housing services. The retirement village is increasingly accepted as a suitable living arrangement for older people. Ecological theory of ageing emphasizes a match between environment and older peoples’ competences. As one response to this, creating village environment in a sustainable way is on the agenda. However, it is not very clear what kinds of sustainable features should be incorporated within the village environment to fit residents’ competences, in particular given that baby boomers who have unique requirements have become the main potential customers. In present paper, a sustainable retirement village framework is proposed by building on ecological theory of ageing and triple bottom line. A two-step inductive reasoning research method is adopted in this conceptualization process. The proposed sustainable retirement village framework contains four domains, including senior-oriented basic settings, financial affordability, age-friendly social environment and environmental sustainability. These four domains are interrelated, and a sustainable retirement village stresses a dynamic balance between different domains. This proposed framework not only gives implications for village developers on creating a suitable village environment to better accommodate residents, but also paves the way for future studies on housing older people in an age-friendly manner.

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This chapter addresses opportunities for problem posing in developing young children’s statistical literacy, with a focus on student-directed investigations. Although the notion of problem posing has broadened in recent years, there nevertheless remains limited research on how problem posing can be integrated within the regular mathematics curriculum, especially in the areas of statistics and probability. The chapter first reviews briefly aspects of problem posing that have featured in the literature over the years. Consideration is next given to the importance of developing children’s statistical literacy in which problem posing is an inherent feature. Some findings from a school playground investigation conducted in four, fourth-grade classes illustrate the different ways in which children posed investigative questions, how they made predictions about their outcomes and compared these with their findings, and the ways in which they chose to represent their findings.

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Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

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An important uncertainty when estimating per capita consumption of, for example, illicit drugs by means of wastewater analysis (sometimes referred to as “sewage epidemiology”) relates to the size and variability of the de facto population in the catchment of interest. In the absence of a day-specific direct population count any indirect surrogate model to estimate population size lacks a standard to assess associated uncertainties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to collect wastewater samples at a unique opportunity, that is, on a census day, as a basis for a model to estimate the number of people contributing to a given wastewater sample. Mass loads for a wide range of pharmaceuticals and personal care products were quantified in influents of ten sewage treatment plants (STP) serving populations ranging from approximately 3500 to 500 000 people. Separate linear models for population size were estimated with the mass loads of the different chemical as the explanatory variable: 14 chemicals showed good, linear relationships, with highest correlations for acesulfame and gabapentin. De facto population was then estimated through Bayesian inference, by updating the population size provided by STP staff (prior knowledge) with measured chemical mass loads. Cross validation showed that large populations can be estimated fairly accurately with a few chemical mass loads quantified from 24-h composite samples. In contrast, the prior knowledge for small population sizes cannot be improved substantially despite the information of multiple chemical mass loads. In the future, observations other than chemical mass loads may improve this deficit, since Bayesian inference allows including any kind of information relating to population size.

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Rind and Tromovitch (2007) raised four concerns relating to our article (Najman, Dunne, Purdie, Boyle, & Coxeter, 2005. Archives of Sexual Behavior, 34, 517-526.) which suggested a causal association between childhood sexual abuse (CSA) and adult sexual dysfunction. We consider each of these concerns: magnitude of effect, cause and effect, confounding, and measurement error. We suggest that, while the concerns they raise represent legitimate reservations about the validity of our findings, on balance the available evidence indicates an association between CSA and sexual dysfunction that is of "moderate" magnitude, probably causal, and unlikely to be a consequence of confounding or measurement error.

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This paper investigates the effects of experience on the intuitiveness of physical and visual interactions performed by airport security screeners. Using portable eye tracking glasses, 40 security screeners were observed in the field as they performed search, examination and interface interactions during airport security x-ray screening. Data from semi structured interviews was used to further explore the nature of visual and physical interactions. Results show there are positive relationships between experience and the intuitiveness of visual and physical interactions performed by security screeners. As experience is gained, security screeners are found to perform search, examination and interface interactions more intuitively. In addition to experience, results suggest that intuitiveness is affected by the nature and modality of activities performed. This inference was made based on the dominant processing styles associated with search and examination activities. The paper concludes by discussing the implications that this research has for the design of visual and physical interfaces. We recommend designing interfaces that build on users’ already established intuitive processes, and that reduce the cognitive load incurred during transitions between visual and physical interactions.