Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Applicability of ELISA in pesticide monitoring to control runoff of bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn from paddy fields

The applicability of ELISA kits was evaluated as an alternative to monitor bensulfuron-methyl and simetryn behavior in paddy water under intermittent (Plot 1) and continuous (Plot 2) irrigation schemes. Simetryn concentrations in both plots decreased exponentially from the peak of the first day. However, the simetryn kit systematically underestimated by a factor of 0.79 as compared to the GC method. Bensulfuron-methyl concentrations exhibited similar dissipation kinetics in paddy water and the drainage water. The bensulfuron-methyl kit was capable of distinguishing spatial variations of concentrations in the paddy field. The ELISA kits clearly indicated differences in the loss of both herbicides between the two plots and therefore may be useful for evaluating the water management practice of pesticide runoff control in paddy fields.

Applications of passive sampling techniques in monitoring organic pollutants in the environment

As there are a myriad of micro organic pollutants that can affect the well-being of human and other organisms in the environment the need for an effective monitoring tool is eminent. Passive sampling techniques, which have been developed over the last decades, could provide several advantages to the conventional sampling methods including simpler sampling devices, more cost-effective sampling campaign, providing time-integrated load as well as representative average of concentrations of pollutants in the environment. Those techniques have been applied to monitor many pollutants caused by agricultural activities, i.e. residues of pesticides, veterinary drugs and so on. Several types of passive samplers are commercially available and their uses are widely accepted. However, not many applications of those techniques have been found in Japan, especially in the field of agricultural environment. This paper aims to introduce the field of passive sampling and then to describe some applications of passive sampling techniques in environmental monitoring studies related to the agriculture industry.

Micro paddy lysimeter for monitoring solute transport in paddy environment

The micro paddy lysimeter (MPL) was developed and evaluated for its performance to simulate solute transport in paddy environment under laboratory conditions. MPLs were constructed using soil collected from Field Museum Honmachi of Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Japan. For the physical characteristics of the hardpan layer, parameters such as thickness, and soil aggregate size, affecting the percolation rate were studied. For the plow layer, two types of plow soils, sieved and un-sieved soils were compared. The sieved soil plow layer was produced by mixing air-dried soils of different aggregate sizes of D > 9.50, 9.50 ≥ D > 4.75, 4.75 ≥ D > 2.0 mm and D ≤ 2.0 mm at 47.1, 19.5, 20.6, and 12.8%, respectively. The un-sieved plow layer soil was directly used after collecting from the field. Inert tracer was applied to ponding water with controlled boundary conditions to evaluate the reproducibility of the soil hydraulic characteristics. HYDRUS-1D was used to evaluate the movement of bromide tracer in the MPL. The proposed conditions of the MPL were that the hardpan layer can be made from soil aggregates smaller than 0.425 mm with 2 cm thickness and that the plow layer can be prepared with sieved or un-sieved soils. With these conditions, the obtained results proved that MPLs can be a useful tool to simulate solute transport in paddy environment.

Monitoring substance use in prisons: Assessing the potential value of wastewater analysis

Prison substance use is a major concern for prison authorities and the wider community. Australia has responded to this problem by implementing the National Corrections Drug Strategy. Across Australia, the true extent of prison substance use cannot be determined. As a result, the effectiveness of the interventions employed as part of this strategy cannot be properly assessed. This has important implications for the allocation of corrective services resources and future policy development. This article explores the benefits and limitations, as well as the ethical and practical issues in using wastewater analysis (WWA) to measure levels of substance use in prisons. It reports results from the first application of WWA to an Australian prison, which supports the use of WWA in this context. Given the increasing concern for prescription misuse in prisons, we also highlight the novel use of WWA to measure the extent of prescription misuse by prisoners. The article concludes that as a result of its objectivity, sensitivity and cost-effectiveness, the use of WWA in prisons warrants further consideration in Australia.

Evidence-based recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis: Results from the Australian 3E initiative in rheumatology

Aim: To develop a set of Australian recommendations for the monitoring and treatment of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) through systematic literature review combined with the opinion of practicing rheumatologists. Methods: A set of eight questions, four in each domain of monitoring and treatment, were formulated by voting and the Delphi method. The results of a systematic literature review addressing each question were presented to the 23 participants of the Australian 3E meeting. All participants were clinical rheumatologists experienced in the daily management of AS. Results: After three rounds of breakout sessions to discuss the findings of the literature review, a set of recommendations was finalized after discussion and voting. The category of evidence and strength of recommendation were determined for each proposal. The level of agreement among participants was excellent (mean 84%, range 64-100%). Conclusions: The 12 recommendations developed from evidence and expert opinion provide guidance for the daily management of AS patients. For most recommendations, we found a paucity of supportive evidence in the literature highlighting the need for additional clinical studies.

Home monitoring for infants at risk of the sudden infant death syndrome

This study evaluates the effectiveness and social implications of home monitoring of 31 infants at risk of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Thirteen siblings of children dying of SIDS, nine near miss SIDS infants and nine preterm infants with apnoea persisting beyond 40 weeks post conceptual age were monitored from a mean age of 15 days to a mean of 10 months. Chest movement detection monitors were used in 27 and thoracic impedance monitors in four. Genuine apnoeic episodes were reported by 21 families, and 13 infants required resuscitation. Apnoeic episodes occurred in all nine preterm infants but in only five (38%) of the siblings of SIDS (P<0.05). Troublesome false alarms were a major problem occurring with 61% of the infants and were more common with the preterm infants than the siblings of SIDS. All but two couples stated that the monitor decreased anxiety and improved their quality of life. Most parents accepted that the social restrictions imposed by the monitor were part of the caring process but four couples were highly resentful of the changes imposed on their lifestyle. The monitors used were far from ideal with malfunction occurring in 17, necessitating replacement in six, repair in six and cessation of monitoring in three. The parents became ingenious in modifying the monitors to their own individual requirements Although none of these 31 ‘at risk’ infants died the study sample was far too small to conclude whether home monitoring prevented any cases of SIDS.

An effective, economic way of monitoring menstrual cycle hormones in at risk female athletes

PURPOSE: Female athletes, in response to intensive training, competition stress and a lean, athletic physique, are at increased risk of altered hypothalamic-pituitary ovarian (HPO) axis function associated with menstrual cycle disturbance and reduced secretion of the ovarian hormones estrogen and progesterone. Because there is evidence suggesting possible detrimental effects on skeletal health associated with deficiencies in these hormones, a suitable means to asses ovarian hormone concentrations in at risk athletes is needed. The aim of this study was to evaluate a simple, economical means to monitor the ovarian hormone production in athletes, in the setting of intensive training. METHODS: Subjects comprised 14 adolescent rowers, 12 lightweight rowers, and two groups of 10 matched control subjects. Ovarian function was monitored during the competition season by estimation of urinary excretion of estrone glucuronide (E1G) and pregnanediol glucuronide (PdG), enabling the menstrual cycles to be classified as ovulatory or anovulatory. RESULTS: Results indicated 35% and 75% of schoolgirl and lightweight rowers had anovulatory menstrual cycles, respectively. These findings were highlighted by significantly lower excretion of E1G and PdG during phases of intensive training in both the lightweight and schoolgirl rowers, compared with the control subjects. CONCLUSION: It was concluded that the urinary E1G and PdG assays were an effective means to assess the influence of intense training on ovarian hormone concentrations in at risk athletes. It is recommended that this technique be applied more widely as a means of early detection of athletes with low estrogen and progesterone levels, in an attempt to avoid detrimental influences on skeletal health.

Monitoring exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in an Australian population using pooled urine samples

Integrated exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) can be assessed through monitoring of urinary mono-hydroxylated PAHs (OH-PAHs). The aim of this study was to provide the first assessment of exposure to PAHs in a large sample of the population in Queensland, Australia including exposure to infant (0-4. years). De-identified urine specimens, obtained from a pathology laboratory, were stratified by age and sex, and pooled (n. =. 24 pools of 100) and OH-PAHs were measured by gas chromatography-isotope dilution-tandem mass spectrometry. Geometric mean (GM) concentrations ranged from 30. ng/L (4-hydroxyphenanthrene) to 9221. ng/L (1-naphthol). GM of 1-hydroxypyrene, the most commonly used PAH exposure biomarker, was 142. ng/L. The concentrations of OH-PAHs found in this study are consistent with those in developed countries and lower than those in developing countries. We observed no association between sex and OH-PAH concentrations. However, we observed lower urinary concentrations of all OH-PAHs in samples from infants (0-4. years), children (5-14. years) and the elderly (>. 60. year old) compared with samples from other age groups (15-29, 30-44 and 45-59. years) which may be attributed to age-dependent behaviour-specific exposure sources.

Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess the impact of exercise referral schemes on physical activity and health outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and ongoing trial registries up to October 2009. We also checked study references. Study selection - Design: randomised controlled trials or non-randomised controlled (cluster or individual) studies published in peer review journals. - Population: sedentary individuals with or without medical diagnosis. - Exercise referral schemes defined as: clear referrals by primary care professionals to third party service providers to increase physical activity or exercise, physical activity or exercise programmes tailored to individuals, and initial assessment and monitoring throughout programmes. - Comparators: usual care, no intervention, or alternative exercise referral schemes. Results Eight randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, comparing exercise referral schemes with usual care (six trials), alternative physical activity intervention (two), and an exercise referral scheme plus a self determination theory intervention (one). Compared with usual care, follow-up data for exercise referral schemes showed an increased number of participants who achieved 90-150 minutes of physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week (pooled relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.30) and a reduced level of depression (pooled standardised mean difference −0.82, −1.28 to −0.35). Evidence of a between group difference in physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity or in other health outcomes was inconsistent at follow-up. We did not find any difference in outcomes between exercise referral schemes and the other two comparator groups. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with specific medical diagnoses. Substantial heterogeneity in the quality and nature of the exercise referral schemes across studies might have contributed to the inconsistency in outcome findings. Conclusions Considerable uncertainty remains as to the effectiveness of exercise referral schemes for increasing physical activity, fitness, or health indicators, or whether they are an efficient use of resources for sedentary people with or without a medical diagnosis.

Monitoring healing progression and characterizing the mechanical environment in preclinical models for bone tissue engineering

The treatment of large segmental bone defects remains a significant clinical challenge. Due to limitations surrounding the use of bone grafts, tissue-engineered constructs for the repair of large bone defects could offer an alternative. Before translation of any newly developed tissue engineering (TE) approach to the clinic, efficacy of the treatment must be shown in a validated preclinical large animal model. Currently, biomechanical testing, histology, and microcomputed tomography are performed to assess the quality and quantity of the regenerated bone. However, in vivo monitoring of the progression of healing is seldom performed, which could reveal important information regarding time to restoration of mechanical function and acceleration of regeneration. Furthermore, since the mechanical environment is known to influence bone regeneration, and limb loading of the animals can poorly be controlled, characterizing activity and load history could provide the ability to explain variability in the acquired data sets and potentially outliers based on abnormal loading. Many approaches have been devised to monitor the progression of healing and characterize the mechanical environment in fracture healing studies. In this article, we review previous methods and share results of recent work of our group toward developing and implementing a comprehensive biomechanical monitoring system to study bone regeneration in preclinical TE studies.

Monitoring temporal changes in use of two cathinones in a large urban catchment in Queensland, Australia

Wastewater analysis was used to examine prevalence and temporal trends in the use of two cathinones, methylone and mephedrone, in an urban population (>200,000 people) in South East Queensland, Australia. Wastewater samples were collected from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant that serviced the catchment from 2011 to 2013. Liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry was used to measure mephedrone and methylone in wastewater sample using direct injection mode. Mephedrone was not detected in any samples while methylone was detected in 45% of the samples. Daily mass loads of methylone were normalized to the population and used to evaluate methylone use in the catchment. Methylone mass loads peaked in 2012 but there was no clear temporal trend over the monitoring period. The prevalence of methylone use in the catchment was associated with the use of MDMA, the more popular analogue of methylone, as indicated by other complementary sources. Methylone use was stable in the study catchment during the monitoring period whereas mephedrone use has been declining after its peak in 2010. More research is needed on the pharmacokinetics of emerging illicit drugs to improve the applicability of wastewater analysis in monitoring their use in the population.

Statistical analysis of spectral data: A methodology for designing an intelligent monitoring system for the diabetic foot

Early detection of (pre-)signs of ulceration on a diabetic foot is valuable for clinical practice. Hyperspectral imaging is a promising technique for detection and classification of such (pre-)signs. However, the number of the spectral bands should be limited to avoid overfitting, which is critical for pixel classification with hyperspectral image data. The goal was to design a detector/classifier based on spectral imaging (SI) with a small number of optical bandpass filters. The performance and stability of the design were also investigated. The selection of the bandpass filters boils down to a feature selection problem. A dataset was built, containing reflectance spectra of 227 skin spots from 64 patients, measured with a spectrometer. Each skin spot was annotated manually by clinicians as "healthy" or a specific (pre-)sign of ulceration. Statistical analysis on the data set showed the number of required filters is between 3 and 7, depending on additional constraints on the filter set. The stability analysis revealed that shot noise was the most critical factor affecting the classification performance. It indicated that this impact could be avoided in future SI systems with a camera sensor whose saturation level is higher than 106, or by postimage processing.

Symposium: Food pricing and affordability of ‘healthy’ versus ‘less healthy’ diets: An international approach to monitoring and surveillance

Symposium co-ordinated by The International Network for Food and Obesity/NCDs Research, Monitoring and Action Support (INFORMAS) Purpose Global monitoring of the price and affordability of foods, meals and diets is urgently needed. There are major methodological challenges in developing robust, cost-effective, standardized, and policy relevant tools, pertinent to nutrition, obesity, and diet-related non-communicable diseases and their inequalities. There is increasing pressure to take into account environmental sustainability. Changes in price differentials and affordability need to be comparable between and within countries and over time. Robust tools could provide baseline data for monitoring and evaluating structural, economic and social policies at the country/regional and household levels. INFORMAS offers one framework for consideration.

Virtual Special Issue: “The impact of temperature on human health: new insights”

Ambient temperature is one of the basic parameters characterising human comfort: are we too hot, too cold, or just right? The impact of temperature goes beyond comfort: inadequate temperature and temperature variations have consequences on human health, as the increasing numbers of studies have demonstrated. The topic is of particular significance at the times when climate change shifts the traditional – as we know them- temperature zones, and brings much wider temperature variations. For these reasons the impact of temperature on health has been one of the most popular topics among the articles submitted and published in Science of the Total Environment over the last few years. This Virtual Special Issue compiles 18 articles published in our journal on this topic since 2012. It is worth briefly summarizing the rich scientific insights brought by these articles, as well as broader considerations, particularly those extending to management, discussed by the authors of the articles.