'It brings back too many memories' : Grantham haunted by floods

Flood waters came rushing back into Grantham over the weekend, two years after their community was devastated. It was too much for many residents, writes journalist Amanda Gearing from Grantham.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

How emergent roles and structures create trust In hastily formed inter-organizational teams

Many activities, from disaster response to project management, require cooperation among people from multiple organizations who initially lack interpersonal relationships and trust. Upon entering inter-organizational settings, pre-existing identities and expectations, along with emergent social roles and structures, may all influence trust between colleagues. To sort out these effects, we collected time-lagged data from three cohorts of military MBA students, representing 2,224 directed dyads, shortly after they entered graduate school. Dyads that shared organizational identity, boundary-spanning roles, and similar network positions (structural equivalence) were likely to have stronger professional ties and greater trust.

Climate change and children’s health : a call for research on what works to protect children

Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children’s health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children’s health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children’s vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children’s disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children’s disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries, and ; (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children’s health perspective.

Psychosocial and communication variables involved in mediating the individual experience of older adults following a severe weather event

The recent floods in south-east Queensland have focused policy, academic and community attention on the challenges associated with severe weather events (SWE), specifically pre-disaster preparation, disaster-response and post-disaster community resilience. Financially, the cost of SWE was $9 billion in the 2011 Australian Federal Budget (Swan 2011); psychologically and emotionally, the impact on individual mental health and community wellbeing is also significant but more difficult to quantify. However, recent estimates suggest that as many as one in five will subsequently experience major emotional distress (Bonanno et al. 2010). With climate change predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of a wide range of SWE in Australia (Garnaut 2011; The Climate Institute 2011), there is an urgent and critical need to ensure that the unique psychological and social needs of more vulnerable community members - such as older residents - are better understood and integrated into disaster preparedness and response policy, planning and protocols. Navigating the complex dynamics of SWE can be particularly challenging for older adults and their disaster experience is frequently magnified by a wide array of cumulative and interactive stressors, which intertwine to make them uniquely vulnerable to significant short and long-term adverse effects. This current article provides a brief introduction to the current literature in this area and highlights a gap in the research relating to communication tools during and after severe weather events.

Assessing the immediate and short-term impact of flooding on residential property participant behaviour

The past decade has seen an increase in the number of significant natural disasters that have caused considerable loss of life as well as damage to all property markets in the affected areas. In many cases, these natural disasters have not only caused significant property damage, but in numerous cases, have resulted in the total destruction of the property in the location. With these disasters attracting considerable media attention, the public are more aware of where these affected property markets are, as well as the overall damage to properties that have been damaged or destroyed. This heightened level of awareness has to have an impact on the participants in the property market, whether a developer, vendor seller or investor. To assess this issue, a residential property market that has been affected by a significant natural disaster over the past 2 years has been analysed to determine the overall impact of the disaster on buyer, renter and vendor behaviour, as well as prices in these residential markets. This paper is based on data from the Brisbane flood in January 2011. This natural disaster resulted in loss of life and partial and total devastation of considerable residential property sectors. Data for the research have been based on the residential sales and rental listings for each week of the study period to determine the level of activity in the specific property sectors, and these are also compared to the median house prices for the various suburbs for the same period based on suburbs being either flood affected or flood free. As there are 48 suburbs included in the study, it has been possible to group these suburbs on a socio-economic basis to determine possible differences due to location and value. Data were accessed from realestate.com.au, a free real estate site that provides details of current rental and sales listings on a suburb basis, RP Data a commercial property sales database and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The paper found that sales listings fell immediately after the flood in the affected areas, but there was no corresponding fall or increase in sales listings in the flood-free suburbs. There was a significant decrease in the number of rental listings follow the flood as affected parties sought alternate accommodation. The greatest fall in rental listings was in areas close to the flood-affected suburbs indicating the desire to be close to the flooded property during the repair period.

The Torrent : Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley, 10 January 2011

Of all the stories to emerge from Queensland’s catastrophic summer of 2011, the most dramatic and starkly tragic were those that took place in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley. On January 10, 2011, after weeks of heavy rain and as floodwaters began to overwhelm much of south-east Queensland, an ‘inland tsunami’ hit the city of Toowoomba, the rural districts of Spring Bluff and Postmans Ridge, and the towns of Murphys Creek, Withcott, Helidon, and Grantham. The Torrent:Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley, 10 January 2011 tells, for the first time, the extraordinary stories of survival and loss that emerged from that terrible day. Official figures state that twenty-four people died. Many escaped death only because they were rescued by members of the community or through sheer good fortune. Based on exclusive interviews with survivors, rescuers and with the families and friends of victims of the disaster, The Torrent is a unique and powerful account of human courage in the face of the devastating force of nature, and the enduring resilience of ordinary Australians.

The impact of heatwaves on emergency department visits in Brisbane, Australia : a time series study

Introduction The acute health effects of heatwaves in a subtropical climate and their impact on emergency departments (ED) are not well known. The purpose of this study is to examine overt heat-related presentations to EDs associated with heatwaves in Brisbane. Methods Data were obtained for the summer seasons (December to February) from 2000-2012. Heatwave events were defined as two or more successive days with daily maximum temperature >=34[degree sign]C (HWD1) or >=37[degree sign]C (HWD2). Poisson generalised additive model was used to assess the effect of heatwaves on heat-related visits (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes T67 and X30; ICD 9 codes 992 and E900.0). Results Overall, 628 cases presented for heat-related illnesses. The presentations significantly increased on heatwave days based on HWD1 (relative risk (RR) = 4.9, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.8, 6.3) and HWD2 (RR = 18.5, 95% CI: 12.0, 28.4). The RRs in different age groups ranged between 3-9.2 (HWD1) and 7.5-37.5 (HWD2). High acuity visits significantly increased based on HWD1 (RR = 4.7, 95% CI: 2.3, 9.6) and HWD2 (RR = 81.7, 95% CI: 21.5, 310.0). Average length of stay in ED significantly increased by >1 hour (HWD1) and >2 hours (HWD2). Conclusions Heatwaves significantly increase ED visits and workload even in a subtropical climate. The degree of impact is directly related to the extent of temperature increases and varies by socio-demographic characteristics of the patients. Heatwave action plans should be tailored according to the population needs and level of vulnerability. EDs should have plans to increase their surge capacity during heatwaves.

RMAA safety performance : how does it compare with Greenfield projects?

Gross value of cons truction work in the repair , maintenance, minor alte ration and addition (RMAA) sector in Hong Kong has expanded dramatically by 58% from 1998 to 2007, accounting for over 53% of the whole construction market in 2007. Unfortunately, the portion of industrial accidents arising from this sector also increased substantially during the same period. It is important to improve the safety performance of the RMAA sector. This paper has set out the objectives to examine safety statistics of RMAA works; to compare them with those of green field projects; and more importantly, to highlight potential hurdles en countered in the process of comparison and finally to provide effective recommendations for overcoming these impediments. To strive for continuous safety improvement of RMAA works, comparable safety statistics should be compiled for this sector.

Soziale Medien in Krisensituationen

Vom Oderhochwasser über Hurricane Sandy bis zum Tsunami und Reaktormeltdown an der japanischen Ostküste: die letzten Jahre waren leider reich an Naturkatastrophen und anderen Krisensituationen, welche Hunderttausende von Menschen betroffen haben. Abgesehen davon, daß viele dieser Krisen auch die ersten Auswirkungen des Klimawandels greifbar gemacht haben, verdeutlichen sie auch eine andere, ebenfalls nicht unwichtige Form des Wandels: die graduelle Umgestaltung der Medienlandschaft, in der herkömmliche Massenmedien vermehrt durch soziale Medien wie Facebook oder Twitter ergänzt und teilweise vielleicht sogar ersetzt werden.

Navigating the future of roads – considering potential impacts of environmental and social trends on road infrastructure

Providing mobility corridors for communities, enabling freight networks to transport goods and services, and a pathway for emergency services and disaster relief operations, roads are a vital component of our societal system. In the coming decades, a number of modern issues will face road agencies as a result of climate change, resource scarcity and energy related challenges that will have implications for society. To date, these issues have been discussed on a case by case basis, leading to a fragmented approach by state and federal agencies in considering the future of roads – with potentially significant cost and risk implications. Within this context, this paper summarises part of a research project undertaken within the ‘Greening the Built Environment’ program of the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre (SBEnrc, Australia), which identified key factors or ‘trends’ affecting the future of roads and key strategies to ensure that road agencies can continue to deliver road infrastructure that meets societal needs in an environmentally appropriate manner. The research was conducted over two years, including a review of academic and state agency literature, four stakeholder workshops in Western Australia and Queensland, and industry consultation. The project was supported financially and through peer review and contribution, by Main Roads Western Australia, QLD Department of Transport and Main Roads, Parsons Brinckerhoff, John Holland Group, and the Australian Green Infrastructure Council (AGIC). The project highlighted several potential trends that are expected to affect road agencies in the future, including predicted resource and materials shortages, increases in energy and natural resources prices, increased costs related to greenhouse gas emissions, changing use and expectations of roads, and changes in the frequency and intensity of weather events. Exploring the implications of these potential futures, the study then developed a number of strategies in order to prepare transport agencies for the associated risks that such trends may present. An unintended outcome of the project was the development of a process for enquiring into future scenarios, which will be explored further in Stage 2 of the project (2013-2014). The study concluded that regardless of the type and scale of response by the agency, strategies must be holistic in approach, and remain dynamic and flexible.

Variation in risk seeking behaviour following large losses : a natural experiment

This study explores people's risk taking behaviour after having suffered large real-world losses following a natural disaster. Using the margins of the 2011 Australian floods (Brisbane) as a natural experimental setting, we find that homeowners who were victims of the floods and face large losses in property values are 50% more likely to opt for a risky gamble -- a scratch card giving a small chance of a large gain ($500,000) -- than for a sure amount of comparable value ($10). This finding is consistent with prospect theory predictions regarding the adoption of a risk-seeking attitude after a loss.

Creating regional resilience in Australia

This paper explores the impact that extreme weather events can have on communities. Using the Brisbane floods of 2011 to examine the recovery operations, the paper highlights the effectiveness of recovery and rebuilding in already strong and resilient communities. Our research has shown that communities which have a strong sense of identity, as well as organized places to meet, develop resilient networks that come into play in times of crisis. The increasing trend of the fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) or drive-in/drive-out (DIDO) workforce to service regional areas has undermined the resilience of existing communities. The first hint of this occurs with community groups not knowing who their neighbours are. The paper is based on research examining the needs of groups in regional communities with the goal to better equip regional communities with the capacity to respond positively to change (and crisis) through in-novative, evidence-based policies, resilience strategies and tools. Part of this process was to build an evidence-base to address a range of challenges associated with the place-based environments and the sharing of information systems within communities and decision makers. The first part of the paper explores the context in which communities have been required to mobilize in response to crises; the issues that have galvanized a common purpose; and the methods by which these communities shared their knowledge. The second part of the paper examines how communities could plan for and mitigate natural disasters in the future by developing better decision making tools. The paper defines the requirements for information systems that will link data models of built infrastruc-ture with data from the disaster and response plans. These will then form the basis for the use of social media to coordinate activities between official crews and the public to improve response coordination and provide the technology that could reduce the time required to allow communities to resume some semblance of normality.

Expanding Emergency Department capacity : a multisite study

Objectives: To i) identify predictors of admission, and ii) describe outcomes for patients who arrived via ambulance to three Australian public Emergency Departments (EDs), before and after the opening of 41 additional ED beds within the area. Methods: A retrospective, comparative, cohort study using deterministically linked health data collected between 3 September 2006 and 2 September 2008. Data included ambulance offload delay, time to see doctor, ED length of stay (ED LOS), admission requirement, access block, hospital length of stay and in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify predictors of hospital admission. Results: One third of all 286,037 ED presentations were via ambulance (n= 79,196) and 40.3% required admission. After increasing emergency capacity, the only outcome measure to improve was in-hospital mortality. Ambulance offload delay, time to see doctor, ED length of stay (ED LOS), admission requirement, access block, hospital length of stay did not improve. Strong predictors of admission before and after increased capacity included: age over 65 years, Australian Triage Scale (ATS) category 1-3, diagnoses of circulatory or respiratory conditions and ED LOS > 4 hours. With additional capacity the odds ratios for these predictors increased for age >65 and ED LOS > 4 hours and decreased for triage category and ED diagnoses. Conclusions: Expanding ED capacity from 81 to 122 beds within a health service area impacted favourably on mortality outcomes but not on time-related service outcomes such as ambulance offload time, time to see doctor and ED LOS. To improve all service outcomes, when altering (increasing/decreasing) ED bed numbers, the whole healthcare system needs to be considered.

Groundwater table response to sea level rise and its impact on pavement structure

It has been predicted that sea level will rise about 0.8 m by 2100. Consequently, seawater can intrude into the coastal aquifers and change the level of groundwater table. A raise in groundwater table due to seawater intrusion threats the coastal infrastructure such as road pavements. The mechanical properties of subgrade materials will change due to elevated rise of groundwater table, leading to pavement weakening and decreasing the subgrade strength and stiffness. This paper presents an assessment of the vulnerability of subgrade in coastal areas to change in groundwater table due to sea-level rise. A simple bathtub approach is applied for estimating the groundwater level changes according to sea-level rise. Then the effect of groundwater level changes on the soil water content (SWC) of a single column of fine-sand soil is simulated using MIKE SHE. The impact of an increase in moisture content on subgrade strength/stiffness is assessed for a number of scenarios.