Factors influencing health promotion activities in midlife and older Australian women with a chronic disease

Background: Chronic diseases including type 2 diabetes are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in midlife and older Australian women. There are a number of modifiable risk factors for type 2 diabetes and other chronic diseases including smoking, nutrition, physical activity and overweight and obesity. Little research has been conducted in the Australian context to explore the perceived barriers to health promotion activities in midlife and older Australian women with a chronic disease. Aims: The primary aim of this study was to explore women’s perceived barriers to health promotion activities to reduce modifiable risk factors, and the relationship of perceived barriers to smoking behaviour, fruit and vegetable intake, physical activity and body mass index. A secondary aim of this study was to investigate nurses’ perceptions of the barriers to action for women with a chronic disease, and to compare those perceptions with those of the women. Methods: The study was divided into two phases where Phase 1 was a cross sectional survey of women, aged over 45 years with type 2 diabetes who were attending Diabetes clinics in the Primary and Community Health Service of the Metro North Health Service District of Queensland Health (N = 22). The women were a subsample of women participating in a multi-model lifestyle intervention, the ‘Reducing Chronic Disease among Adult Australian Women’ project. Phase 2 of the study was a cross sectional online survey of nurses working in Primary and Community Health Service in the Metro North Health Service District of Queensland Health (N = 46). Pender’s health promotion model was used as the theoretical framework for this study. Results: Women in this study had an average total barriers score of 32.18 (SD = 9.52) which was similar to average scores reported in the literature for women with a range of physical disabilities and illnesses. The leading five barriers for this group of women were: concern about safety; too tired; not interested; lack of information about what to do; with lack of time and feeling I can’t do things correctly the equal fifth ranked barriers. In this study there was no statistically significant difference in average total barriers scores between women in the intervention group and those is the usual care group of the parent study. There was also no significant relationship between the women’s socio-demographic variables and lifestyle risk factors and their level of perceived barriers. Nurses in the study had an average total barriers score of 44.48 (SD = 6.24) which was higher than all other average scores reported in the literature. The leading five barriers that nurses perceived were an issue for women with a chronic disease were: lack of time and interferes with other responsibilities the leading barriers; embarrassment about appearance; lack of money; too tired and lack of support from family and friends. There was no significant relationship between the nurses’ sociodemographic and nursing variables and the level of perceived barriers. When comparing the results of women and nurses in the study there was a statistically significant difference in the median total barriers score between the groups (p < 0.001), where the nurses perceived the barriers to be higher (Md = 43) than the women (Md = 33). There was also a significant difference in the responses to the individual barriers items in fifteen of the eighteen items (p < 0.002). Conclusion: Although this study is limited by a small sample size, it contributes to understanding the perception of midlife and older women with a chronic disease and also the perception of nurses, about the barriers to healthy lifestyle activities that women face. The study provides some evidence that the perceptions of women and nurses may differ and argues that these differences may have significant implications for clinical practice. The study recommends a greater emphasis on assessing and managing perceived barriers to health promotion activities in health education and policy development and proposes a conceptual model for understanding perceived barriers to action.

Prevalence of malnutrition in Parkinson's disease : a systematic review

Parkinson's disease (PD) patients may be at higher risk of malnutrition because of the symptoms associated with the disease and the side effects of the medication used to manage it. A decline in nutritional status is associated with many adverse outcomes related to health and quality of life. It is not clear, however, to what extent this population is currently affected by malnutrition. The objective of this review was to systematically assess the methodology and outcomes of studies reporting the prevalence of malnutrition in PD patients. Studies that attempted to classify participants with PD into nutritional risk and/or malnutrition categories using body mass index, weight change, anthropometric measures, and nutritional screening and assessment scores were included. The prevalence of malnutrition ranged from 0% to 24% in PD patients, while 3–60% of PD patients were reported to be at risk of malnutrition. There was a large degree of variation among studies in the methods chosen, the definition of malnutrition using those methods, and the detail in which the methodological protocols were reported. The true extent of malnutrition in the PD population has yet to be accurately quantified. It is important, however, to screen for malnutrition at the time of PD diagnosis.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

Using participatory action research in a community-based initiative addressing complex mental health needs

Objective: This paper describes the first phase of a larger project that utilizes participatory action research to examine complex mental health needs across an extensive group of stakeholders in the community. Method: Within an objective qualitative analysis of focus group discussions the social ecological model is utilized to explore how integrative activities can be informed, planned and implemented across multiple elements and levels of a system. Seventy-one primary care workers, managers, policy-makers, consumers and carers from across the southern metropolitan and Gippsland regions of Victoria, Australia took part in seven focus groups. All groups responded to an identical set of focusing questions. Results: Participants produced an explanatory model describing the service system, as it relates to people with complex needs, across the levels of social ecological analysis. Qualitative themes analysis identified four priority areas to be addressed in order to improve the system's capacity for working with complexity. These included: (i) system fragmentation; (ii) integrative case management practices; (iii) community attitudes; and (iv) money and resources. Conclusions: The emergent themes provide clues as to how complexity is constructed and interpreted across the system of involved agencies and interest groups. The implications these findings have for the development and evaluation of this community capacity-building project were examined from the perspective of constructing interventions that address both top-down and bottom-up processes.

The contribution of leadership attributes to large scale, complex project success

Mismanagement of large-scale, complex projects has resulted in spectacular failures, cost overruns, time blowouts, and stakeholder dissatisfaction. We focus discussion on the interaction of key management and leadership attributes which facilitate leaders’ adaptive behaviors. These behaviors should in turn influence adaptive team member behavior, stakeholder engagement and successful project outcomes, outputs and impacts. An understanding of this type of management will benefit from a perspective based in managerial and organizational cognition. The research question we explore is whether successful leaders of large-scale complex projects have an internal process leading to a display of administrative, adaptive, and enabling behaviors that foster adaptive processes and enabling behaviors within their teams and with external stakeholders. At the core of the model we propose interactions of key attributes, namely cognitive flexibility, affect, and emotional intelligence. The result of these cognitive-affective attribute interactions is leadership leading to enhanced likelihood of complex project success.

Re-thinking how we plan to address technically complex problems : drawing on planning theory to guide practice in revision of land use plans in coastal high hazard zones

Queensland's new State Planning Policy for Coastal Protection, released in March and approved in April 2011 as part of the Queensland Coastal Plan, stipulates that local governments prepare and implement adaptation strategies for built up areas projected to be subject to coastal hazards between present day and 2100. Urban localities within the delineated coastal high hazard zone (as determined by models incorporating a 0.8 meter rise in sea level and a 10% increase in the maximum cyclone activity) will be required to re-evaluate their plans to accommodate growth, revising land use plans to minimise impacts of anticipated erosion and flooding on developed areas and infrastructure. While implementation of such strategies would aid in avoidance or minimisation of risk exposure, communities are likely to face significant challenges in such implementation, especially as development in Queensland is so intensely focussed upon its coasts with these new policies directing development away from highly desirable waterfront land. This paper examines models of planning theory to understand how we plan when faced with technically complex problems towards formulation of a framework for evaluating and improving practice.

An actor-network research frame for analysing complex socio-technical situations

This paper presents a “research frame” which we have found useful in analyzing complex socio- technical situations. The research frame is based on aspects of actor-network theory: “interressment”, “enrollment”, “points of passage” and the “trial of strength”. Each of these aspects are described in turn, making clear their purpose in the overall research frame. Having established the research frame it is used to analyse two examples. First, the use of speech recognition technology is examined in two different contexts, showing how to apply the frame to compare and contrast current situations. Next, a current medical consultation context is described and the research frame is used to consider how it could change with innovative technology. In both examples, the research frame shows that the use of an artefact or technology must be considered together with the context in which it is used.

Ageing and use of complex product interfaces

This paper presents an experiment designed to investigate if redundancy in an interface has any impact on the use of complex interfaces by older people and people with low prior-experience with technology. The important findings of this study were that older people (65+ years) completed the tasks on the Words only based interface faster than on Redundant (text and symbols) interface. The rest of the participants completed tasks significantly faster on the Redundant interface. From a cognitive processing perspective, sustained attention (one of the functions of Central Executive) has emerged as one of the important factors in completing tasks on complex interfaces faster and with fewer of errors.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

Systematics of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex of smut fungi

Smut fungi are important pathogens of grasses, including the cultivated crops maize, sorghum and sugarcane. Typically, smut fungi infect the inflorescence of their host plants. Three genera of smut fungi (Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces) form a complex with overlapping morphological characters, making species placement problematic. For example, the newly described Macalpinomyces mackinlayi possesses a combination of morphological characters such that it cannot be unambiguously accommodated in any of the three genera. Previous attempts to define Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces using morphology and molecular phylogenetics have highlighted the polyphyletic nature of the genera, but have failed to produce a satisfactory taxonomic resolution. A detailed systematic study of 137 smut species in the Ustilago-Sporisorium- Macalpinomyces complex was completed in the current work. Morphological and DNA sequence data from five loci were assessed with maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference to reconstruct a phylogeny of the complex. The phylogenetic hypotheses generated were used to identify morphological synapomorphies, some of which had previously been dismissed as a useful way to delimit the complex. These synapomorphic characters are the basis for a revised taxonomic classification of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex, which takes into account their morphological diversity and coevolution with their grass hosts. The new classification is based on a redescription of the type genus Sporisorium, and the establishment of four genera, described from newly recognised monophyletic groups, to accommodate species expelled from Sporisorium. Over 150 taxonomic combinations have been proposed as an outcome of this investigation, which makes a rigorous and objective contribution to the fungal systematics of these important plant pathogens.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

The Metapopulation Dynamics of an Infectious Disease: Tuberculosis in Possums

An SEI metapopulation model is developed for the spread of an infectious agent by migration. The model portrays two age classes on a number of patches connected by migration routes which are used as host animals mature. A feature of this model is that the basic reproduction ratio may be computed directly, using a scheme that separates topography, demography, and epidemiology. We also provide formulas for individual patch basic reproduction numbers and discuss their connection with the basic reproduction ratio for the system. The model is applied to the problem of spatial spread of bovine tuberculosis in a possum population. The temporal dynamics of infection are investigated for some generic networks of migration links, and the basic reproduction ratio is computed—its value is not greatly different from that for a homogeneous model. Three scenarios are considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis in possums where the spatial aspect is shown to be crucial for the design of disease management operations

Falls in Parkinson’s disease : evidence for altered stepping strategies on compliant surfaces

Background: Real-world environments comprise surfaces of different textures, densities and gradients, which can threaten postural stability and increase falls risk. However, there has been limited research that has examined how walking on compliant surfaces influences gait and postural stability in older people and PD patients. Methods: PD patients (n = 49) and age-matched controls (n = 32) were assessed using three dimensional motion analysis during self-paced walking on both firm and foam walkways. Falls were recorded prospectively over 12 months using daily falls calendars. Results: Walking on a foam surface influenced the temporospatial characteristics for all groups, but PD fallers adopted very different joint kinematics compared with controls. PD fallers also demonstrated reduced toe clearance and had increased mediolateral head motion(relative to walking velocity) compared with control participants. Conclusions: Postural control deficits in PD fallers may impair their capacity to attenuate surface-related perturbations and control head motion. The risk of falling for PD patients may be increased on less stable surfaces.