How should future building structure and emergency response cope with bushfire attack?

Bushfires are regular occurrences in the Australian landscape which can, under adverse weather conditions, give rise to losses of life, property, infrastructure, environmental and cultural values. Where property loss is involved, historical surveys of house losses have focussed on ember, radiant heat and flame contact as key bushfire attack mechanisms. Although often noted, little work has been done to quantify the impact of fire generated or fire enhanced wind and pyro-convective events on house loss and to improve construction practice within Australia. It is well known that strong winds are always associated with bushfire events. It is less well known, although increasingly shown through anecdotal evidence, that bushfires are not a passive companion of wind, but indeed they interact with winds and can together cause significant damages to exposed buildings and ecological structures. Previous studies have revealed the effects of wind, fire and structure interactions with the result of increased pressure coefficient distributions on the windward side of a building downstream of a fire front. This paper presents a further analysis of the result in relations to the relevant standards and fire weather conditions. A review of wind code and bushfire code was conducted. Based on the result of the current study, the authors believe it is necessary to consider wind as an attack mechanism in bushfire events. The results of the study will also have implications on bushfire emergency management, design of emergency shelters, perception of danger, emergency evacuation and on risk assessment.

A meshfree particle based model for microscale shrinkage mechanisms of food materials in drying conditions

Cells are the fundamental building block of plant based food materials and many of the food processing born structural changes can fundamentally be derived as a function of the deformations of the cellular structure. In food dehydration the bulk level changes in porosity, density and shrinkage can be better explained using cellular level deformations initiated by the moisture removal from the cellular fluid. A novel approach is used in this research to model the cell fluid with Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) and cell walls with Discrete Element Methods (DEM), that are fundamentally known to be robust in treating complex fluid and solid mechanics. High Performance Computing (HPC) is used for the computations due to its computing advantages. Comparing with the deficiencies of the state of the art drying models, the current model is found to be robust in replicating drying mechanics of plant based food materials in microscale.

On-road rapid identification of high-polluting transport buses

Exhaust emissions from motor vehicles vary widely and depend on factors such as engine operating conditions, fuel, age, mileage and service history. A method has been devised to rapidly identify high-polluting vehicles as they travel on the road. The method is able to monitor emissions from a large number of vehicles in a short time and avoids the need to conduct expensive and time consuming tests on chassis dynamometers. A sample of the exhaust plume is captured as each vehicle passes a roadside monitoring station and the pollutant emission factors are calculated from the measured concentrations using carbon dioxide as a tracer. Although, similar methods have been used to monitor soot and gaseous mass emissions, to-date it has not been used to monitor particle number emissions from a large fleet of vehicles. This is particularly important as epidemiological studies have shown that particle number concentration is an important parameter in determining adverse health effects. The method was applied to measurements of particle number emissions from individual buses in the Brisbane City Council diesel fleet operating on the South-East Busway. Results indicate that the particle number emission factors are gamma- distributed, with a high proportion of the emissions being emitted by a small percentage of the buses. Although most of the high-emitters are the oldest buses in the fleet, there are clear exceptions, with some newer buses emitting as much. We attribute this to their recent service history, particularly pertaining to improper tuning of the engines. We recommend that a targeted correction program would be a highly effective measure in mitigating urban environmental pollution.

Sequential monitoring of hospital adverse events when control charts fail : the example of fall injuries in hospitals

Objective To evaluate methods for monitoring monthly aggregated hospital adverse event data that display clustering, non-linear trends and possible autocorrelation. Design Retrospective audit. Setting The Northern Hospital, Melbourne, Australia. Participants 171,059 patients admitted between January 2001 and December 2006. Measurements The analysis is illustrated with 72 months of patient fall injury data using a modified Shewhart U control chart, and charts derived from a quasi-Poisson generalised linear model (GLM) and a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM) that included an approximate upper control limit. Results The data were overdispersed and displayed a downward trend and possible autocorrelation. The downward trend was followed by a predictable period after December 2003. The GLM-estimated incidence rate ratio was 0.98 (95% CI 0.98 to 0.99) per month. The GAMM-fitted count fell from 12.67 (95% CI 10.05 to 15.97) in January 2001 to 5.23 (95% CI 3.82 to 7.15) in December 2006 (p<0.001). The corresponding values for the GLM were 11.9 and 3.94. Residual plots suggested that the GLM underestimated the rate at the beginning and end of the series and overestimated it in the middle. The data suggested a more rapid rate fall before 2004 and a steady state thereafter, a pattern reflected in the GAMM chart. The approximate upper two-sigma equivalent control limit in the GLM and GAMM charts identified 2 months that showed possible special-cause variation. Conclusion Charts based on GAMM analysis are a suitable alternative to Shewhart U control charts with these data.

The influence of atmospheric conditions on the leakage current of ceramic insulators on the Colombian Caribbean coast

The contamination of electrical insulators is one of the major contributors to the risk of operation outages in electrical substations, especially in coastal zones with high salinity levels and atmospheric pollution. By using the measurement of leakage-currents, which is one of the main indicators of contamination in insulators, this work seeks to the determine the correlation with climatic variables, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiance, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed and direction. The results obtained provide an input to the behaviour of the leakage current under atmospheric conditions that are particular to the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and principal component analysis are utilised to determine the significant relationships among the different variables under consideration. The necessary information for the study was obtained via historical databases of both atmospheric variables and the leakage current measured in over a period of one year in a 220-kV potential transformer insulator. We identified the influencing factors of temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and direction on the magnitude of the leakage current as the most relevant.

An analytical framework for quantifying aquifer response time scales associated with transient boundary conditions

A major challenge in studying coupled groundwater and surface-water interactions arises from the considerable difference in the response time scales of groundwater and surface-water systems affected by external forcings. Although coupled models representing the interaction of groundwater and surface-water systems have been studied for over a century, most have focused on groundwater quantity or quality issues rather than response time. In this study, we present an analytical framework, based on the concept of mean action time (MAT), to estimate the time scale required for groundwater systems to respond to changes in surface-water conditions. MAT can be used to estimate the transient response time scale by analyzing the governing mathematical model. This framework does not require any form of transient solution (either numerical or analytical) to the governing equation, yet it provides a closed form mathematical relationship for the response time as a function of the aquifer geometry, boundary conditions, and flow parameters. Our analysis indicates that aquifer systems have three fundamental time scales: (i) a time scale that depends on the intrinsic properties of the aquifer; (ii) a time scale that depends on the intrinsic properties of the boundary condition, and; (iii) a time scale that depends on the properties of the entire system. We discuss two practical scenarios where MAT estimates provide useful insights and we test the MAT predictions using new laboratory-scale experimental data sets.

A time series analysis of presentations to Queensland health facilities for alcohol-related conditions, following the increase in 'alcopops' tax

Objective: In response to concerns about the health consequences of high-risk drinking by young people, the Australian Government increased the tax on pre-mixed alcoholic beverages ('alcopops') favoured by this demographic. We measured changes in admissions for alcohol-related harm to health throughout Queensland, before and after the tax increase in April 2008. Methods: We used data from the Queensland Trauma Register, Hospitals Admitted Patients Data Collection, and the Emergency Department Information System to calculate alcohol-related admission rates per 100,000 people, for 15 - 29 year-olds. We analysed data over 3 years (April 2006 - April 2009), using interrupted time-series analyses. This covered 2 years before, and 1 year after, the tax increase. We investigated both mental and behavioural consequences (via F10 codes), and intentional/unintentional injuries (S and T codes). Results: We fitted an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to test for any changes following the increased tax. There was no decrease in alcohol-related admissions in 15 - 29 year-olds. We found similar results for males and females, as well as definitions of alcohol-related harms that were narrow (F10 codes only) and broad (F10, S and T codes). Conclusions: The increased tax on 'alcopops' was not associated with any reduction in hospital admissions for alcohol-related harms in Queensland 15 - 29 year-olds.

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

Demand Response for Residential Appliances in a Smart Electricity Distribution Network: Utility and Customer Perspectives

This thesis introduces advanced Demand Response algorithms for residential appliances to provide benefits for both utility and customers. The algorithms are engaged in scheduling appliances appropriately in a critical peak day to alleviate network peak, adverse voltage conditions and wholesale price spikes also reducing the cost of residential energy consumption. Initially, a demand response technique via customer reward is proposed, where the utility controls appliances to achieve network improvement. Then, an improved real-time pricing scheme is introduced and customers are supported by energy management schedulers to actively participate in it. Finally, the demand response algorithm is improved to provide frequency regulation services.

The capture and retention evaluation of a stormwater gross pollutant trap design

Gross pollutant traps (GPT) are designed to capture and retain visible street waste, such as anthropogenic litter and organic matter. Blocked screens, low/high downstream tidal waters and flows operating above/below the intended design limits can hamper the operations of a stormwater GPT. Under these adverse operational conditions, a recently developed GPT was evaluated. Capture and retention experiments were conducted on a 50% scale model with partially and fully blocked screens, placed inside a hydraulic flume. Flows were established through the model via an upstream channel-inlet configuration. Floatable, partially buoyant, neutrally buoyant and sinkable spheres were released into the GPT and monitored at the outlet. These experiments were repeated with a pipe-inlet configured GPT. The key findings from the experiments were of practical significance to the design, operation and maintenance of GPTs. These involved an optimum range of screen blockages and a potentially improved inlet design for efficient gross pollutant capture/retention operations. For example, the outlet data showed that the capture and retention efficiency deteriorated rapidly when the screens were fully blocked. The low pressure drop across the retaining screens and the reduced inlet flow velocities were either insufficient to mobilise the gross pollutants, or the GPT became congested.

Incorporating human-factors in car-following models : a review of recent developments and research needs

Over the past decades there has been a considerable development in the modeling of car-following (CF) behavior as a result of research undertaken by both traffic engineers and traffic psychologists. While traffic engineers seek to understand the behavior of a traffic stream, traffic psychologists seek to describe the human abilities and errors involved in the driving process. This paper provides a comprehensive review of these two research streams. It is necessary to consider human-factors in {CF} modeling for a more realistic representation of {CF} behavior in complex driving situations (for example, in traffic breakdowns, crash-prone situations, and adverse weather conditions) to improve traffic safety and to better understand widely-reported puzzling traffic flow phenomena, such as capacity drop, stop-and-go oscillations, and traffic hysteresis. While there are some excellent reviews of {CF} models available in the literature, none of these specifically focuses on the human factors in these models. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing the available literature with a specific focus on the latest advances in car-following models from both the engineering and human behavior points of view. In so doing, it analyses the benefits and limitations of various models and highlights future research needs in the area.

The MyD88+ phenotype is an adverse prognostic factor in epithelial ovarian cancer

The prognosis of epithelial ovarian cancer is poor in part due to the high frequency of chemoresistance. Recent evidence points to the Toll-like receptor-4 (TLR4), and particularly its adaptor protein MyD88, as one potential mediator of this resistance. This study aims to provide further evidence that MyD88 positive cancer cells are clinically significant, stem-like and reproducibly detectable for the purposes of prognostic stratification. Expression of TLR4 and MyD88 was assessed immunohistochemically in 198 paraffin-embedded ovarian tissues and in an embryonal carcinoma model of cancer stemness. In parallel, expression of TLR4 and MyD88 mRNA and regulatory microRNAs (miR-21 and miR-146a) was assessed, as well as in a series of chemosensitive and resistant cancer cells lines. Functional analysis of the pathway was assessed in chemoresistant SKOV-3 ovarian cancer cells. TLR4 and MyD88 expression can be reproducibly assessed via immunohistochemistry using a semi-quantitative scoring system. TLR4 expression was present in all ovarian epithelium (normal and neoplastic), whereas MyD88 was restricted to neoplastic cells, independent of tumour grade and associated with reduced progression-free and overall survival, in an immunohistological specific subset of serous carcinomas, p<0.05. MiR-21 and miR-146a expression was significantly increased in MyD88 negative cancers (p<0.05), indicating their participation in regulation. Significant alterations in MyD88 mRNA expression were observed between chemosensitive and chemoresistant cells and tissue. Knockdown of TLR4 in SKOV-3 ovarian cells recovered chemosensitivity. Knockdown of MyD88 alone did not. MyD88 expression was down-regulated in differentiated embryonal carcinoma (NTera2) cells, supporting the MyD88+ cancer stem cell hypothesis. Our findings demonstrate that expression of MyD88 is associated with significantly reduced patient survival and altered microRNA levels and suggest an intact/functioning TLR4/MyD88 pathway is required for acquisition of the chemoresistant phenotype. Ex vivo manipulation of ovarian cancer stem cell (CSC) differentiation can decrease MyD88 expression, providing a potentially valuable CSC model for ovarian cancer.