A methodology to develop an urban transport disadvantage framework : the case of Brisbane, Australia

Most individuals travel in order to participate in a network of activities which are important for attaining a good standard of living. Because such activities are commonly widely dispersed and not located locally, regular access to a vehicle is important to avoid exclusion. However, planning transport system provisions that can engage members of society in an acceptable degree of activity participation remains a great challenge. The main challenges in most cities of the world are due to significant population growth and rapid urbanisation which produces increased demand for transport. Keeping pace with these challenges in most urban areas is difficult due to the widening gap between supply and demand for transport systems which places the urban population at a transport disadvantage. The key element in mitigating the issue of urban transport disadvantage is to accurately identify the urban transport disadvantaged. Although wide-ranging variables and multi-dimensional methods have been used to identify this group, variables are commonly selected using ad-hoc techniques and unsound methods. This poses questions of whether the current variables used are accurately linked with urban transport disadvantage, and the effectiveness of the current policies. To fill these gaps, the research conducted for this thesis develops an operational urban transport disadvantage framework (UTDAF) based on key statistical urban transport disadvantage variables to accurately identify the urban transport disadvantaged. The thesis develops a methodology based on qualitative and quantitative statistical approaches to develop an urban transport disadvantage framework designed to accurately identify urban transport disadvantage. The reliability and the applicability of the methodology developed is the prime concern rather than the accuracy of the estimations. Relevant concepts that impact on urban transport disadvantage identification and measurement and a wide range of urban transport disadvantage variables were identified through a review of the existing literature. Based on the reviews, a conceptual urban transport disadvantage framework was developed based on the causal theory. Variables identified during the literature review were selected and consolidated based on the recommendations of international and local experts during the Delphi study. Following the literature review, the conceptual urban transport disadvantage framework was statistically assessed to identify key variables. Using the statistical outputs, the key variables were weighted and aggregated to form the UTDAF. Before the variable's weights were finalised, they were adjusted based on results of correlation analysis between elements forming the framework to improve the framework's accuracy. The UTDAF was then applied to three contextual conditions to determine the framework's effectiveness in identifying urban transport disadvantage. The development of the framework is likely to be a robust application measure for policy makers to justify infrastructure investments and to generate awareness about the issue of urban transport disadvantage.

The consistency of crash involvement recall across time

Introduction Road safety researchers rely heavily on self-report data to explore the aetiology of crash risk. However, researchers consistently acknowledge a range of limitations associated with this methodological approach (e.g., self-report bias), which has been hypothesised to reduce the predictive efficacy of scales. Although well researched in other areas, one important factor often neglected in road safety studies is the fallibility of human memory. Given accurate recall is a key assumption in many studies, the validity and consistency of self-report data warrants investigation. The aim of the current study was to examine the consistency of self-report data of crash history and details of the most recent reported crash on two separate occasions. Materials & Method A repeated measures design was utilised to examine the self-reported crash involvement history of 214 general motorists over a two month period. Results A number of interesting discrepancies were noted in relation to number of lifetime crashes reported by the participants and the descriptions of their most recent crash across the two occasions. Of the 214 participants who reported having been involved in a crash, 35 (22.3%) reported a lower number of lifetime crashes as Time 2, than at Time 1. Of the 88 drivers who reported no change in number of lifetime crashes, 10 (11.4%) described a different most recent crash. Additionally, of the 34 reporting an increase in the number of lifetime crashes, 29 (85.3%) of these described the same crash on both occasions. Assessed as a whole, at least 47.1% of participants made a confirmed mistake at Time 1 or Time 2. Conclusions These results raise some doubt in regard to the accuracy of memory recall across time. Given that self-reported crash involvement is the predominant dependent variable used in the majority of road safety research, this issue warrants further investigation. Replication of the study with a larger sample size that includes multiple recall periods would enhance understanding into the significance of this issue for road safety methodology.

Review of current test methods for screwed connections

The pull-through/local dimpling failure strength of screwed connections is very important in the design of profiled steel cladding systems to help them resist storms and hurricanes. The current American and European provisions recommend four different test methods for the screwed connections in tension, but the accuracy of these methods in determining the connection strength is not known. It is unlikely that the four test methods are equivalent in all cases and thus it is necessary to reduce the number of methods recommended. This paper presents a review of these test methods based on some laboratory tests on crest- and valley-fixed claddings and then recommends alternative tests methods that reproduce the real behavior of the connections, including the bending and membrane deformations of the cladding around the screw fasteners and the tension load in the fastener.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

Cervical auscultation in the diagnosis of oropharyngeal aspiration in children : a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Oropharyngeal aspiration (OPA) can lead to recurrent respiratory illnesses and chronic lung disease in children. Current clinical feeding evaluations performed by speech pathologists have poor reliability in detecting OPA when compared to radiological procedures such as the modified barium swallow (MBS). Improved ability to diagnose OPA accurately via clinical evaluation potentially reduces reliance on expensive, less readily available radiological procedures. Our study investigates the utility of adding cervical auscultation (CA), a technique of listening to swallowing sounds, in improving the diagnostic accuracy of a clinical evaluation for the detection of OPA. Methods We plan an open, unblinded, randomised controlled trial at a paediatric tertiary teaching hospital. Two hundred and sixteen children fulfilling the inclusion criteria will be randomised to one of the two clinical assessment techniques for the clinical detection of OPA: (1) clinical feeding evaluation only (CFE) group or (2) clinical feeding evaluation with cervical auscultation (CFE + CA) group. All children will then undergo an MBS to determine radiologically assessed OPA. The primary outcome is the presence or absence of OPA, as determined on MBS using the Penetration-Aspiration Scale. Our main objective is to determine the sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of ‘CFE + CA’ versus ‘CFE’ only compared to MBS-identified OPA. Discussion Early detection and appropriate management of OPA is important to prevent chronic pulmonary disease and poor growth in children. As the reliability of CFE to detect OPA is low, a technique that can improve the diagnostic accuracy of the CFE will help minimise consequences to the paediatric respiratory system. Cervical auscultation is a technique that has previously been documented as a clinical adjunct to the CFE; however, no published RCTs addressing the reliability of this technique in children exist. Our study will be the first to establish the utility of CA in assessing and diagnosing OPA risk in young children.

Children’s accommodation during reading of Chinese and English texts

Purpose: Inaccurate accommodation during nearwork and subsequent accommodative hysteresis may influence myopia development. Myopia is highly prevalent in Singapore; an untested theory is that Chinese children are prone to these accommodation characteristics. We measured the accuracy of accommodation responses during and nearwork-induced transient myopia (NITM) after periods spent reading Chinese and English texts. Methods: Refractions of 40 emmetropic and 43 myopic children were measured with a free-space autorefractor for four reading tasks of 10-minute durations: Chinese (SimSun, 10.5 points) and English (Times New Roman, 12 points) texts at 25 cm and 33 cm. Accuracy was obtained by subtracting accommodation response from accommodation demand. Nearwork-induced transient myopia was obtained by subtracting pretask distance refraction from posttask refraction, and regression was determined as the time for the posttask refraction to return to pretask levels. Results: There were significant, but small, effects of text type (Chinese, 0.97 ± 0.32 diopters [D] vs. English, 1.00 ± 0.37 D; F1,1230 = 7.24, p = 0.007) and reading distance (33 cm, 1.01 ± 0.30 D vs. 25 cm, 0.97 ± 0.39 D; F1,1230 = 7.74, p = 0.005) on accommodation accuracy across all participants. Accuracy was similar for emmetropic and myopic children across all reading tasks. Neither text type nor reading distance had significant effects on NITM or its regression. Myopes had greater NITM (by 0.07 D) (F1,81 = 5.05, p = 0.03) that took longer (by 50s) (F1,81 = 31.08, p < 0.01) to dissipate. Conclusions: Reading Chinese text caused smaller accommodative lags than reading English text, but the small differences were not clinically significant. Myopic children had significantly greater NITM and longer regression than emmetropic children for both texts. Whether differences in NITM are a cause or consequence of myopia cannot be answered from this study.

Validation of the interRAI Cognitive Performance Scale against independent clinical diagnosis and the Mini-Mental State Examination in older hospitalized patients

Objective To compare the diagnostic accuracy of the interRAI Acute Care (AC) Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS2) and the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), against independent clinical diagnosis for detecting dementia in older hospitalized patients. Design, Setting, and Participants The study was part of a prospective observational cohort study of patients aged ≥70 years admitted to four acute hospitals in Queensland, Australia, between 2008 and 2010. Recruitment was consecutive and patients expected to remain in hospital for ≥48 hours were eligible to participate. Data for 462 patients were available for this study. Measurements Trained research nurses completed comprehensive geriatric assessments and administered the interRAI AC and MMSE to patients. Two physicians independently reviewed patients’ medical records and assessments to establish the diagnosis of dementia. Indicators of diagnostic accuracy included sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, likelihood ratios and areas under receiver (AUC) operating characteristic curves. Results 85 patients (18.4%) were considered to have dementia according to independent clinical diagnosis. The sensitivity of the CPS2 [0.68 (95%CI: 0.58–0.77)] was not statistically different to the MMSE [0.75 (0.64–0.83)] in predicting physician diagnosed dementia. The AUCs for the 2 instruments were also not statistically different: CPS2 AUC = 0.83 (95%CI: 0.78–0.89) and MMSE AUC = 0.87 (95%CI: 0.83–0.91), while the CPS2 demonstrated higher specificity [0.92 95%CI: 0.89–0.95)] than the MMSE [0.82 (0.77–0.85)]. Agreement between the CPS2 and clinical diagnosis was substantial (87.4%; κ=0.61). Conclusion The CPS2 appears to be a reliable screening tool for assessing cognitive impairment in acutely unwell older hospitalized patients. These findings add to the growing body of evidence supporting the utility of the interRAI AC, within which the CPS2 is embedded. The interRAI AC offers the advantage of being able to accurately screen for both dementia and delirium without the need to use additional assessments, thus increasing assessment efficiency.

Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method

In this paper, a refined classic noise prediction method based on the VISSIM and FHWA noise prediction model is formulated to analyze the sound level contributed by traffic on the Nanjing Lukou airport connecting freeway before and after widening. The aim of this research is to (i) assess the traffic noise impact on the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) campus before and after freeway widening, (ii) compare the prediction results with field data to test the accuracy of this method, (iii) analyze the relationship between traffic characteristics and sound level. The results indicate that the mean difference between model predictions and field measurements is acceptable. The traffic composition impact study indicates that buses (including mid-sizedtrucks) and heavy goods vehicles contribute a significant proportion of total noise power despite their low traffic volume. In addition, speed analysis offers an explanation for the minor differences in noise level across time periods. Future work will aim at reducing model error, by focusing on noise barrier analysis using the FEM/BEM method and modifying the vehicle noise emission equation by conducting field experimentation.

How accurate is the identification of serious traffic injuries by Police? The concordance between Police and hospital reported traffic injuries

Police reported crash data are the primary source of crash information in most jurisdictions. However, the definition of serious injury within police-reported data is not consistent across jurisdictions and may not be accurate. With the Australian National Road Safety Strategy targeting the reduction of serious injuries, there is a greater need to assess the accuracy of the methods used to identify these injuries. A possible source of more accurate information relating to injury severity is hospital data. While other studies have compared police and hospital data to highlight the under-reporting in police-reported data, little attention has been given to the accuracy of the methods used by police to identify serious injuries. The current study aimed to assess how accurate the identification of serious injuries is in police-reported crash data, by comparing the profiles of transport-related injuries in the Queensland Road Crash Database with an aligned sample of data from the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection. Results showed that, while a similar number of traffic injuries were recorded in both data sets, the profile of these injuries was different based on gender, age, location, and road user. The results suggest that the ‘hospitalisation’ severity category used by police may not reflect true hospitalisations in all cases. Further, it highlights the wide variety of severity levels within hospitalised cases that are not captured by the current police-reported definitions. While a data linkage study is required to confirm these results, they highlight that a reliance on police-reported serious traffic injury data alone could result in inaccurate estimates of the impact and cost of crashes and lead to a misallocation of valuable resources.

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters : theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

Spatial prediction of N2O emissions in pasture : a Bayesian model averaging analysis

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is one of the greenhouse gases that can contribute to global warming. Spatial variability of N2O can lead to large uncertainties in prediction. However, previous studies have often ignored the spatial dependency to quantify the N2O - environmental factors relationships. Few researches have examined the impacts of various spatial correlation structures (e.g. independence, distance-based and neighbourhood based) on spatial prediction of N2O emissions. This study aimed to assess the impact of three spatial correlation structures on spatial predictions and calibrate the spatial prediction using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) based on replicated, irregular point-referenced data. The data were measured in 17 chambers randomly placed across a 271 m(2) field between October 2007 and September 2008 in the southeast of Australia. We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to investigate and accommodate spatial dependency, and to estimate the effects of environmental variables on N2O emissions across the study site. We compared these with a Bayesian regression model with independent errors. The three approaches resulted in different derived maps of spatial prediction of N2O emissions. We found that incorporating spatial dependency in the model not only substantially improved predictions of N2O emission from soil, but also better quantified uncertainties of soil parameters in the study. The hybrid model structure obtained by BMA improved the accuracy of spatial prediction of N2O emissions across this study region.

Evaluation of MegaVoltage Cone Beam CT image quality with an unmodified Elekta Precise Linac and EPID : a feasibility study

In order to increase the accuracy of patient positioning for complex radiotherapy treatments various 3D imaging techniques have been developed. MegaVoltage Cone Beam CT (MVCBCT) can utilise existing hardware to implement a 3D imaging modality to aid patient positioning. MVCBCT has been investigated using an unmodified Elekta Precise linac and 15 iView amorphous silicon electronic portal imaging device (EPID). Two methods of delivery and acquisition have been investigated for imaging an anthropomorphic head phantom and quality assurance phantom. Phantom projections were successfully acquired and CT datasets reconstructed using both acquisition methods. Bone, tissue and air were 20 clearly resolvable in both phantoms even with low dose (22 MU) scans. The feasibility of MegaVoltage Cone beam CT was investigated using a standard linac, amorphous silicon EPID and a combination of a free open source reconstruction toolkit as well as custom in-house software written in Matlab. The resultant image quality has 25 been assessed and presented. Although bone, tissue and air were resolvable 2 in all scans, artifacts are present and scan doses are increased when compared with standard portal imaging. The feasibility of MVCBCT with unmodified Elekta Precise linac and EPID has been considered as well as the identification of possible areas for future development in artifact correction techniques to 30 further improve image quality.

Identification of reduced models of power system areas using phasor measurement units

In this paper an approach is presented for identification of a reduced model for coherent areas in power systems using phasor measurement units to represent the inter-area oscillations of the system. The generators which are coherent in a wide range of operating conditions form the areas in power systems and the reduced model is obtained by representing each area by an equivalent machine. The reduced nonlinear model is then identified based on the data obtained from measurement units. The simulation is performed on three test systems and the obtained results show high accuracy of identification process.

Comparison of functionals for metal hexaboride band structure calculations

Density functional calculations of the electronic band structure for superconducting and semi-conducting metal hexaborides are compared using a consistent suite of assumptions and with emphasis on the physical implications of computed models. Spin polarization enhances mathematical accuracy of the functional approximations and adds significant physical meaning to model interpretation. For YB6 and LaB6, differences in alpha and beta projections occur near the Fermi energy. These differences are pronounced for superconducting hexaborides but do not occur for other metal hexaborides.

Prevalence of undiagnosed urinary tract infections on admission to a rehabilitation unit

Background Through clinical observation nursing staff of an inpatient rehabilitation unit identified a link between incontinence and undiagnosed urinary tract infections (UTIs). Further, clinical observation and structured continence management led to the realisation that urinary incontinence often improved, or resolved completely, after treatment with antibiotics. In 2009 a small study found that 30% of admitted rehabilitation patients had an undiagnosed UTI, with the majority admitted post-orthopaedic fracture. We suspected that the frequent use of indwelling urinary catheters (IDCs) in the orthopaedic environment may have been a contributing factor. Therefore, a second, more thorough, study was commenced in 2010 and completed in 2011. Aim The aim of this study was to identify what proportion of patients were admitted to one rehabilitation unit with an undiagnosed UTI over a 12-month period. We wanted to identify and highlight the presence of known risk factors associated with UTI and determine whether urinary incontinence was associated with the presence of UTI. Methods Data were collected from every patient that was admitted over a 12-month period (n=140). The majority of patients were over the age of 65 and had an orthopaedic fracture (36.4%) or stroke (27.1%). Mid-stream urine (MSU) samples, routinely collected and sent for culture and sensitivity as part of standard admission procedure, were used by the treating medical officer to detect the presence of UTI. A data collection sheet was developed, reviewed and trialled, before official data collection commenced. Data were collected as part of usual practice and collated by a research assistant. Inferential statistics were used to analyse the data. Results This study found that 25 (17.9%) of the 140 patients admitted to rehabilitation had an undiagnosed UTI, with a statistically significant association between prior presence of an IDC and the diagnosis of UTI. Urinary incontinence improved after the completion of treatment with antibiotics. Results further demonstrated a significant association between the confirmation of a UTI on culture and sensitivity and the absence of symptoms usually associated with UTI, such as burning or stinging on urination. Overall, this study suggests careful monitoring of urinary symptoms in patients admitted to rehabilitation, especially in patients with a prior IDC, is warranted.