Modeling perceived collision risk in port water navigation

An increase in the likelihood of navigational collisions in port waters has put focus on the collision avoidance process in port traffic safety. The most widely used on-board collision avoidance system is the automatic radar plotting aid which is a passive warning system that triggers an alert based on the pilot’s pre-defined indicators of distance and time proximities at the closest point of approaches in encounters with nearby vessels. To better help pilot in decision making in close quarter situations, collision risk should be considered as a continuous monotonic function of the proximities and risk perception should be considered probabilistically. This paper derives an ordered probit regression model to study perceived collision risks. To illustrate the procedure, the risks perceived by Singapore port pilots were obtained to calibrate the regression model. The results demonstrate that a framework based on the probabilistic risk assessment model can be used to give a better understanding of collision risk and to define a more appropriate level of evasive actions.

Modelling port water collision risk using traffic conflicts

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns for many seaports. Despite the extent of work recently done on collision risk analysis in port waters, little is known about the influencing factors of the risk. This paper develops a technique for modeling collision risks in port waterways in order to examine the associations between the risks and the geometric, traffic, and regulatory control characteristics of waterways. A binomial logistic model, which accounts for the correlations in the risks of a particular fairway at different time periods, is derived from traffic conflicts and calibrated for the Singapore port fairways. Estimation results show that the fairways attached to shoreline, traffic intersection and international fairway attribute higher risks, whereas those attached to confined water and local fairway possess lower risks. Higher risks are also found in the fairways featuring higher degree of bend, lower depth of water, higher numbers of cardinal and isolated danger marks, higher density of moving ships and lower operating speed. The risks are also found to be higher for night-time conditions.

Socioeconomic inequalities in weight status among mid-aged adults : the contribution of perceptions of weight status and weight-control behaviours

Background Socioeconomically-disadvantaged adults in developed countries experience a higher prevalence of a number of chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, osteoarthritis and some forms of cancer. Overweight and obesity are major risk factors for these diseases. Lower socioeconomic groups have a greater prevalence of overweight and obesity and this may contribute to their higher morbidity and mortality. International studies suggest that socioeconomic groups may differ in their self-perceptions of weight status and their engagement in weightcontrol behaviours (WCBs). Research has shown that lower socioeconomic adults are more likely to underestimate their weight status, and are less likely to engage in WCBs. This may contribute (in part) to the marked inequalities in weight status observed at the population level. There are few, and somewhat limited, Australian studies that have examined the types of weight-control strategies people adopt, the barriers to their weight control, the determinants of their perceived weight status and WCBs. Furthermore, there are no known Australian studies that have examined socioeconomic differences in these factors to better understand the reasons for socioeconomic inequalities in weight status. Hence, the overall aim of this Thesis is to examine why socioeconomically-disadvantaged group experience a greater prevalence of overweight and obesity than their more-advantaged counterparts. Methods This Thesis used data from two sources. Men and women aged 45 to 60 years were examined from both data source. First, the longitudinal Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle (AusDiab) Study were used to advance our knowledge and understanding of socioeconomic differences in weight change, perceived weight status and WCBs. A total of 2753 participants with measured weights at both baseline (1999-2000) and follow-up (2004-2005) were included in the analyses. Percent weight change over the five-year interval was calculated and perceived weight status, WCBs and highest attained education were collected at baseline. Second, the Candidate conducted a postal questionnaire from 1013 Brisbane residents (69.8 % response rate) to investigate the relationship between socioeconomic position, determinants of perceived weight status, WCBs, and barriers and reasons to weight control. A test-retest reliability study was conducted to determine the reliability of the new measures used in the questionnaire. Most new measures had substantial to almost perfect reliability when considering either kappa coefficient or crude agreement. Results The findings from the AusDiab Study (accepted for publication in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health) showed that low-educated men and women were more likely to be obese at baseline compared to their higheducated respondents (O.R. = 1.97, 95 % C.I. = 1.30-2.98 and O.R. = 1.52, 95 % C.I. = 1.03-2.25, respectively). Over the five year follow-up period (1999-2000 to 2004- 05) there were no socioeconomic differences in weight change among men, however socioeconomically-disadvantaged women had greater weight gains. Participants perceiving themselves as overweight gained less weight than those who saw themselves as underweight or normal weight. There was no relationship between engaging in WCBs and five-year weight change. The postal questionnaire data showed that socioeconomically-disadvantaged groups were less likely to engage in WCBs. If they did engage in weight control, they were less likely to adopt exercise strategies, including moderate and vigorous physical activities but were more likely to decrease their sitting time to control their weight. Socioeconomically-disadvantaged adults reported more barriers to weight control; such as perceiving weight loss as expensive, requiring a lot of cooking skills, not being a high priority and eating differently from other people in the household. These results have been accepted for publication in Public Health Nutrition. The third manuscript (under review in Social Science and Medicine) examined socioeconomic differences in determinants of perceived weight status and reasons for weight control. The results showed that lower socioeconomic adults were more likely to specify the following reasons for weight control: they considered themselves to be too heavy, for occupational requirements, on recommendation from their doctor, family members or friends. Conversely, high-income adults were more likely to report weight control to improve their physical condition or to look more attractive compared with those on lower-incomes. There were few socioeconomic differences in the determinants of perceived weight status. Conclusions Education inequalities in overweight/obesity among men and women may be due to mis-perceptions of weight status; overweight or obese individuals in loweducated groups may not perceive their weight as problematic and therefore may not pay attention to their energy-balance behaviours. Socioeconomic groups differ in WCBs, and their reasons and perceived barriers to weight control. Health promotion programs should encourage weight control among lower socioeconomic groups. More specifically, they should encourage the engagement of physical activity or exercise and dietary strategies among disadvantaged groups. Furthermore, such programs should address potential barriers for weight control that disadvantaged groups may encounter. For example, disadvantaged groups perceive that weight control is expensive, requires cooking skills, not a high priority and eating differently from other people in the household. Lastly, health promotion programs and policies aimed at reducing overweight and obesity should be tailored to the different reasons and motivations to weight control experienced by different socioeconomic groups. Weight-control interventions targeted at higher socioeconomic groups should use improving physical condition and attractiveness as motivational goals; while, utilising social support may be more effective for encouraging weight control among lower socioeconomic groups.

The relationship between chronic disease self-efficacy and nutritional status, functional ability and quality of life in older adults at risk of hospital readmission

Background and significance: Older adults with chronic diseases are at increasing risk of hospital admission and readmission. Approximately 75% of adults have at least one chronic condition, and the odds of developing a chronic condition increases with age. Chronic diseases consume about 70% of the total Australian health expenditure, and about 59% of hospital events for chronic conditions are potentially preventable. These figures have brought to light the importance of the management of chronic disease among the growing older population. Many studies have endeavoured to develop effective chronic disease management programs by applying social cognitive theory. However, limited studies have focused on chronic disease self-management in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Moreover, although the majority of studies have covered wide and valuable outcome measures, there is scant evidence on examining the fundamental health outcomes such as nutritional status, functional status and health-related quality of life. Aim: The aim of this research was to test social cognitive theory in relation to self-efficacy in managing chronic disease and three health outcomes, namely nutritional status, functional status, and health-related quality of life, in older adults at high risk of hospital readmission. Methods: A cross-sectional study design was employed for this research. Three studies were undertaken. Study One examined the nutritional status and validation of a nutritional screening tool; Study Two explored the relationships between participants. characteristics, self-efficacy beliefs, and health outcomes based on the study.s hypothesized model; Study Three tested a theoretical model based on social cognitive theory, which examines potential mechanisms of the mediation effects of social support and self-efficacy beliefs. One hundred and fifty-seven patients aged 65 years and older with a medical admission and at least one risk factor for readmission were recruited. Data were collected from medical records on demographics, medical history, and from self-report questionnaires. The nutrition data were collected by two registered nurses. For Study One, a contingency table and the kappa statistic was used to determine the validity of the Malnutrition Screening Tool. In Study Two, standard multiple regression, hierarchical multiple regression and logistic regression were undertaken to determine the significant influential predictors for the three health outcome measures. For Study Three, a structural equation modelling approach was taken to test the hypothesized self-efficacy model. Results: The findings of Study One suggested that a high prevalence of malnutrition continues to be a concern in older adults as the prevalence of malnutrition was 20.6% according to the Subjective Global Assessment. Additionally, the findings confirmed that the Malnutrition Screening Tool is a valid nutritional screening tool for hospitalized older adults at risk of readmission when compared to the Subjective Global Assessment with high sensitivity (94%), and specificity (89%) and substantial agreement between these two methods (k = .74, p < .001; 95% CI .62-.86). Analysis data for Study Two found that depressive symptoms and perceived social support were the two strongest influential factors for self-efficacy in managing chronic disease in a hierarchical multiple regression. Results of multivariable regression models suggested advancing age, depressive symptoms and less tangible support were three important predictors for malnutrition. In terms of functional status, a standard regression model found that social support was the strongest predictor for the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, followed by self-efficacy in managing chronic disease. The results of standard multiple regression revealed that the number of hospital readmission risk factors adversely affected the physical component score, while depressive symptoms and self-efficacy beliefs were two significant predictors for the mental component score. In Study Three, the results of the structural equation modelling found that self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of health characteristics and depression on health-related quality of life. The health characteristics had strong direct effects on functional status and body mass index. The results also indicated that social support partially mediated the relationship between health characteristics and functional status. With regard to the joint effects of social support and self-efficacy, social support fully mediated the effect of health characteristics on self-efficacy, and self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of social support on functional status and health-related quality of life. The results also demonstrated that the models fitted the data well with relative high variance explained by the models, implying the hypothesized constructs under discussion were highly relevant, and hence the application for social cognitive theory in this context was supported. Conclusion: This thesis highlights the applicability of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults at risk of hospital readmission. Further studies are recommended to validate and continue to extend the development of social cognitive theory on chronic disease self-management in older adults to improve their nutritional and functional status, and health-related quality of life.

The effect of light intensity and temperature on photocatalytic water splitting

Photocatalytic water splitting is a process which could potentially lead to commercially viable solar hydrogen production. This thesis uses an engineering perspective to investigate the technology. The effect of light intensity and temperature on photocatalytic water splitting was examined to evaluate the prospect of using solar concentration to increase the feasibility of the process. P25 TiO2 films deposited on conducting glass were used as photocatalyst electrodes and coupled with platinum electrodes which were also deposited on conducting glass. These films were used to form a photocatalysis cell and illuminated with a Xenon arc lamp to simulate solar light at intensities up to 50 suns. They were also tested at temperatures between 20°C and 100°C. The reaction demonstrated a sub-linear relationship with intensity. Photocurrent was proportional to intensity with an exponential value of 0.627. Increasing temperature resulted in an exponential relationship. This proved to follow an Arrhenius relationship with an activation energy of 10.3 kJ mol-1 and a pre-exponential factor of approximately 8.7×103. These results then formed the basis of a mathematical model which extrapolated beyond the range of the experimental tests. This model shows that the loss of efficiency from performing the reaction under high light intensity is offset by the increased reaction rate and efficiency from the associated temperature increase. This is an important finding for photocatalytic water splitting. It will direct future research in system design and materials research and may provide an avenue for the commercialisation of this technology.

Analysis of involved parties in port water conflicts

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is expected to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. This study aims at examining the occurrence of traffic conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of vessels involved in navigational hazards. A binomial logit model was employed to evaluate the association of vessel attributes and the kinematic conditions with conflict severity levels. Results show a positive association for vessels of small gross tonnage, overall vessel length, vessel height and draft with conflict risk. Conflicts involving a pair of dynamic vessels sailing at low speeds also have similar effects.

Statistical analysis of conflict involvements in port water navigation

With increasing rate of shipping traffic, the risk of collisions in busy and congested port waters is likely to rise. However, due to low collision frequencies in port waters, it is difficult to analyze such risk in a sound statistical manner. A convenient approach of investigating navigational collision risk is the application of the traffic conflict techniques, which have potential to overcome the difficulty of obtaining statistical soundness. This study aims at examining port water conflicts in order to understand the characteristics of collision risk with regard to vessels involved, conflict locations, traffic and kinematic conditions. A hierarchical binomial logit model, which considers the potential correlations between observation-units, i.e., vessels, involved in the same conflicts, is employed to evaluate the association of explanatory variables with conflict severity levels. Results show higher likelihood of serious conflicts for vessels of small gross tonnage or small overall length. The probability of serious conflict also increases at locations where vessels have more varied headings, such as traffic intersections and anchorages; becoming more critical at night time. Findings from this research should assist both navigators operating in port waters as well as port authorities overseeing navigational management.

Isolation and characterisation of novel microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA markers for the Eastern Water Dragon (Physignathus lesueurii)

Habitat fragmentation as a result of urbanisation is a growing problem for native lizard species. The Eastern Water Dragon (Physignathus lesueurii) is a social arboreal agamid lizard, native to Australia. This species represents an ideal model species to investigate the effect of urbanisation because of their prominent abundance in the urban landscape. Here we describe the isolation and characterisation of a novel set of 74 di-, tri-, and tetramicrosatellites from which 18 were selected and optimised into two multiplexes. The 18 microsatellites generated a total 148 alleles across the two populations. The number of alleles per locus varied from 2 to 18 alleles and measures of Ho and He varied from 0.395 to 0.877 and from 0.441 to 0.880, respectively. We also present primers for four novel mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers. The combined length of the four mtDNA marker pairs was 2,528 bp which included 15 nucleotides changes. In comparison to threatened species, which are generally characterised by small population sizes, the Eastern Water Dragon represents an ideal model species to investigate the effect of urbanisation on their behavioural ecology and connectivity patterns among populations.

The influence of vegetation and soil type on the speciation of iron in soil water

Soluble organic matter derived from exotic Pinus species has been shown to form stronger complexes with iron (Fe) than that derived from most native Australian species. It has also been proposed that the establishment of exotic Pinus plantations in coastal southeast Queensland may have enhanced the solubility of Fe in soils by increasing the amount of organically complexed Fe, but this remains inconclusive. In this study we test whether the concentration and speciation of Fe in soil water from Pinus plantations differs significantly from soil water from native vegetation areas. Both Fe redox speciation and the interaction between Fe and dissolved organic matter (DOM) were considered; Fe - DOM interaction was assessed using the Stockholm Humic Model. Iron concentrations (mainly Fe 2+) were greatest in the soil waters with the greatest DOM content collected from sandy podosols (Podzols), where they are largely controlled by redox potential. Iron concentrations were small in soil waters from clay and iron oxide-rich soils, in spite of similar redox potentials. This condition is related to stronger sorption on to the reactive clay and iron oxide mineral surfaces in these soils, which reduces the amount of DOM available for electron shuttling and microbial metabolism, restricting reductive dissolution of Fe. Vegetation type had no significant influence on the concentration and speciation of iron in soil waters, although DOM from Pinus sites had greater acidic functional group site densities than DOM from native vegetation sites. This is because Fe is mainly in the ferrous form, even in samples from the relatively well-drained podosols. However, modelling suggests that Pinus DOM can significantly increase the amount of truly dissolved ferric iron remaining in solution in oxic conditions. Therefore, the input of ferrous iron together with Pinus DOM to surface waters may reduce precipitation of hydrous ferric oxides (ferrihydrite) and increase the flux of dissolved Fe out of the catchment. Such inputs of iron are most probably derived from podosols planted with Pinus.

Identity and genetic origins : an ethical exploration of the late discovery of adoptive and donor-insemination offspring status

This thesis is an ethical and empirical exploration of the late discovery of genetic origins in two contexts, adoption and sperm donor-assisted conception. This exploration has two interlinked strands of concern. The first is the identification of ‘late discovery’ as a significant issue of concern, deserving of recognition and acknowledgment. The second concerns the ethical implications of late discovery experiences for the welfare of the child. The apparently simple act of recognition of a phenomenon is a precondition to any analysis and critique of it. This is especially important when the phenomenon arises out of social practices that arouse significant debate in ethical and legal contexts. As the new reproductive technologies and some adoption practices remain highly contested, an ethical exploration of this long neglected experience has the potential to offer new insights and perspectives in a range of contexts. It provides an opportunity to revisit developmental debate on the relative merit or otherwise of biological versus social influences, from the perspective of those who have lived this dichotomy in practise. Their experiences are the human face of the effects arising from decisions taken by others to intentionally separate their biological and social worlds, an action which has then been compounded by family and institutional secrecy from birth. This has been accompanied by a failure to ensure that normative standards and values are upheld for them. Following discovery, these factors can be exacerbated by a lack of recognition and acknowledgement of their concerns by family, friends, community and institutions. Late discovery experiences offer valuable insights to inform discussions on the ethical meanings of child welfare, best interests, parental responsibility, duty of care and child identity rights in this and other contexts. They can strengthen understandings of what factors are necessary for a child to be able to live a reasonably happy or worthwhile life.

Inactivation and structural changes of E. Cloacae and B. Subtilis Endospores during IR laser water treatment

IR radiation has been studied for micro-organism inactivation of bacterial spores on metal substrates [1] and on metal and paper substrates [2]. A near-point near infrared laser water treatment apparatus for use in dental hand-pieces was also developed [3]. To date water sterilisation research using a mid-IR laser technique is very rare. According to the World Health Organisation [4], examinations for faecal indicator bacteria remain the most sensitive and specific way of assessing the hygienic quality of water. Bacteria that fall into this group are E. coli, other coliform bacteria (including E. cloacae) and to a lesser extent, faecal streptococci [5]. Protozoan cysts from organisms which cause giardiasis are the most frequently identified cause of waterborne diseases in developed countries [6,7]. The use of aerobic bacterial endospores to monitor the efficiency of various water treatments has been shown to provide a reliable and simple indicator of overall performance of water treatment[8,9].The efficacy of IR radiation for water disinfection compared to UV treatment has been further investigated in the present study. In addition FTIR spectroscopy in conjunction with Principle Component Analysis was used to characterise structural changes within the bacterial cells and endospores following IR laser treatment. Changes in carbohydrate content of E. cloacae following IR laser treatment were observed.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Towards a comprehensive and integrated knowledge-based urban development model : status quo and directions

Incorporating knowledge based urban development (KBUD) strategies in the urban planning and development process is a challenging and complex task due to the fragmented and incoherent nature of the existing KBUD models. This paper scrutinizes and compares these KBUD models with an aim of identifying key and common features that help in developing a new comprehensive and integrated KBUD model. The features and characteristics of the existing KBUD models are determined through a thorough literature review and the analysis reveals that while these models are invaluable and useful in some cases, lack of a comprehensive perspective and absence of full integration of all necessary development domains render them incomplete as a generic model. The proposed KBUD model considers all central elements of urban development and sets an effective platform for planners and developers to achieve more holistic development outcomes. The proposed model, when developed further, has a high potential to support researchers, practitioners and particularly city and state administrations that are aiming to a knowledge-based development.

Health status and use of health services among recently arrived men with refugee backgrounds: A comparative analysis of urban and regional settlement in South-east Queensland

Approximately one-third of refugee and humanitarian entrants to Australia are adult men. Many of these men and their families settle in regional areas. Little is known about the health status of refugee men and the use of health services, and whether or not there are differences between those living in urban and regional areas. This paper reports on the cross-sectional differences in health status and use of health services among a group of 233 recently arrived refugee men living in urban and regional areas of South-east Queensland. Overall, participants reported good levels of subjective health status, moderate to good levels of well-being, and low prevalence of mental illness. Men living in urban areas were more likely to have a longstanding illness and report poorer health status than those settled in regional areas. In contrast, men living in regional areas reported poorer levels of well-being in the environment domain and were more likely to visit hospital emergency departments. Targeted health promotion programs will ensure that refugee men remain healthy and develop their full potential as members of the Australian community. Programs that facilitate refugees’ access to primary health care in regional areas may promote more appropriate use of hospital emergency departments by these communities.