Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.

Maternal pregravid body mass index and child hospital admissions in the first 5 years of life: results from an Australian birth cohort

Objectives: To examine the association of maternal pregravid body mass index (BMI) and child offspring, all-cause hospitalisations in the first 5 years of life. Methods: Prospective birth cohort study. From 2006 to 2011, 2779 pregnant women (2807 children) were enrolled in the Environments for Healthy Living: Griffith birth cohort study in South-East Queensland, Australia. Hospital delivery record and self-report baseline survey of maternal, household and demographic factors during pregnancy were linked to the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection from 1 November 2006 to 30 June 2012, for child admissions. Maternal pregravid BMI was classified as underweight (<18.5 kg m−2), normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg m−2), overweight (25.0–29.9 kg m−2) or obese (30 kg m−2). Main outcomes were the total number of child hospital admissions and ICD-10-AM diagnostic groupings in the first 5 years of life. Negative binomial regression models were calculated, adjusting for follow-up duration, demographic and health factors. The cohort comprised 8397.9 person years (PYs) follow-up. Results: Children of mothers who were classified as obese had an increased risk of all-cause hospital admissions in the first 5 years of life than the children of mothers with a normal BMI (adjusted rate ratio (RR) =1.48, 95% confidence interval 1.10–1.98). Conditions of the nervous system, infections, metabolic conditions, perinatal conditions, injuries and respiratory conditions were excessive, in both absolute and relative terms, for children of obese mothers, with RRs ranging from 1.3–4.0 (PYs adjusted). Children of mothers who were underweight were 1.8 times more likely to sustain an injury or poisoning than children of normal-weight mothers (PYs adjusted). Conclusion: Results suggest that if the intergenerational impact of maternal obesity (and similarly issues related to underweight) could be addressed, a significant reduction in child health care use, costs and public health burden would be likely.

Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind?

BACKGROUND Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades. METHODS Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD. RESULTS Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude. CONCLUSIONS The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

The return to work experiences of middle-aged Australian workers diagnosed with colorectal cancer: a matched cohort study

Background Few studies have been undertaken to understand the employment impact in patients with colorectal cancer and none in middle-aged individuals with cancer. This study described transitions in, and key factors influencing, work participation during the 12 months following a diagnosis of colorectal cancer. Methods We enrolled 239 adults during 2010 and 2011who were employed at the time of their colorectal cancer diagnosis and were prospectively followed over 12 months. They were compared to an age- and gender-matched general population group of 717 adults from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. Data were collected using telephone and postal surveys. Primary outcomes included work participation at 12 months, changes in hours worked and time to work re-entry. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models were undertaken. Results A significantly higher proportion of participants with colorectal cancer (27%) had stopped working at 12 months than participants from the comparison group (8%) (p < 0.001). Participants with cancer who returned to work took a median of 91 days off work (25–75 percentiles: 14–183 days). For participants with cancer, predictors of not working at 12 months included: being older, lower BMI and lower physical well-being. Factors related to delayed work re-entry included not being university-educated, working for an employer with more than 20 employees in a non-professional or managerial role, longer hospital stay, poorer perceived financial status and having or had chemotherapy. Conclusions In middle-adulthood, those working and diagnosed with colorectal cancer can expect to take around three months off work. Individuals treated with chemotherapy, without a university degree and from large employers could be targeted for specific assistance for a more timely work entry.

Lung disease in indigenous children

Children in indigenous populations have substantially higher respiratory morbidity than non-indigenous children. Indigenous children have more frequent respiratory infections that are, more severe and, associated with long-term sequelae. Post-infectious sequelae such as chronic suppurative lung disease and bronchiectasis are especially prevalent among indigenous groups and have lifelong impact on lung function. Also, although estimates of asthma prevalence among indigenous children are similar to non-indigenous groups the morbidity of asthma is higher in indigenous children. To reduce the morbidity of respiratory illness, best-practice medicine is essential in addition to improving socio-economic factors, (eg household crowding), tobacco smoke exposure, and access to health care and illness prevention programs that likely contribute to these issues. Although each indigenous group may have unique health beliefs and interfaces with modern health care, a culturally sensitive and community-based comprehensive care system of preventive and long term care can improve outcomes for all these conditions. This article focuses on common respiratory conditions encountered by indigenous children living in affluent countries where data is available.

Changing travel patterns and journeys to health services in Great Britain 1985-2012: An examination health service utilisation using the National Travel Survey

Background This paper examines changing patterns in the utilisation and geographic access to health services in Great Britain using National Travel Survey data (1985-2012). The National Travel Survey (NTS) is a series of household surveys designed to provide data on personal travel and monitor changes in travel behaviour over time. The utilisation rate was derived using the proportion of journeys made to access health services. Geographic access was analysed by separating the concept into its accessibility and mobility dimensions. Methods Variables from the PSU, households, and individuals datasets were used as explanatory variables. Whereas, variables extracted from the journeys dataset were used as dependent variables to identify patterns of utilisation i.e. the proportion of journeys made by different groups to access health facilities in a particular journey distance or time band or by mode of transport; and geographic access to health services. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the utilisation rate over the different time periods between different groups. This analysis shows the Odds Ratios (ORs) for different groups making a trip to utilise health services compared to their respective counterparts. Linear multiple regression analyses were conducted to then identify patterns of change in the accessibility and mobility level. Results Analysis of the data has shown that that journey distances to health facilities were signi fi cantly shorter and also gradually reduced over the period in question for Londoners, females, those without a car or on low incomes, and older people. Although rates of utilisation of health services we re Oral Abstracts / Journal of Transport & Health 2 (2015) S5 – S63 S43 signi fi cantly lower because of longer journey times. These fi ndings indicate that the rate of utilisation of health services largely depends on mobility level although previous research studies have traditionally overlooked the mobility dimension. Conclusions This fi nding, therefore, suggests the need to improve geographic access to services together with an enhanced mobility option for disadvantaged groups in order for them to have improved levels of access to health facilities. This research has also found that the volume of car trips to health services also increased steadily over the period 1985-2012 while all other modes accounted for a smaller number of trips. However, it is dif fi cult to conclude from this research whether this increase in the volume of car trips was due to a lack of alternative transport or due to an increase in the level of car-ownership.

Monitoring illicit drug use through wastewater analysis in south east Queensland, Australia

Introduction and Aims: Wastewater analysis has become a useful technique for monitoring illicit drug use in communities. Findings have been reported from different countries in Europe and North America. We applied this technique to gauge the illicit drug consumption in an urban catchment from South East Queensland, Australia. Design and Methods: The sampling campaigns were conducted in 2009 (21st November – 2nd December) and 2010 (19th – 25th November). We collected daily composite wastewater samples from the inlet of the sewage treatment plant using continuous flow-proportional sampling. Ten illicit drug residues (parent compounds and key metabolites) in the samples were measured using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometer. Results: Seven compounds were quantified in all the samples. Our data indicated higher drug consumption on weekends. Cannabis was the highest used drug in both sampling periods. Compared to the first sampling campaign which indicated that cocaine and methamphetamine use exceeded ecstasy usage, the second sampling campaign suggested the use of methamphetamine exceeded that of ecstasy which in turn exceeded cocaine use. Discussion and Conclusions: The observed weekly trend of drug use in our study is in agreement with findings in other studies. The variation between two sampling periods in the prevalence of drug use may relate to the availability and prices of the drugs on markets. The cocaine use we estimated in 2009 was much greater than estimations obtained through the national household survey [1], implying under- reporting of cocaine use in surveys. Future work is underway to tackle methodological challenges for more accurate estimation.

Measuring drug use patterns in Queensland through wastewater analysis

Estimating the use of illicit drugs in the general community is an important task with ramifications for law enforcement agencies, as well as health portfolios. Australia has four ongoing drug monitoring systems, including the AIC’s DUMA program, the National Drug Strategy Household Survey, the Illicit Drug Reporting System and the Ecstasy and Related Drug Reporting System. The systems vary in methods, but broadly they are reliant upon self-report data and may be subject to selection biases. The present study employed a completely different method. By chemically analysing sewerage water, the study produced daily estimates of consumption of methamphetamine, MDMA and cocaine. Samples were collected in November 2009 and November 2010 from a municipality in Queensland, with an population of over 150,000 people. Estimates were made of the average daily dose and average daily street value per 1,000 people. On the basis of estimated dose and price, the methamphetamine market appeared considerably stronger than either MDMA or cocaine. This paper explains the strengths and weaknesses of wastewater analysis. It considers the potential value of wastewater analysis in measuring net consumption of illicit drugs and the effectiveness of law enforcement agency strategies.

Design a zero energy house in Brisbane, Australia

Due to the increasing energy demand and global warming effects, energy efficient buildings have become increasingly important in the modern construction industry. This research is conducted to evaluate the energy performance, financial feasibility and potential energy savings of zero energy houses. Through the use of building computer simulation technique, a 5 stars energy rated house was modelled and validated by comparing the energy performance of a base case scenario to a typical house in Brisbane. By integrating energy reduction strategies and utilizing onsite renewable energy such as solar energy, zero energy performance is achieved. It is found that approximately 66 % energy savings can be achieved in the household annual energy usage by focusing on maximizing the thermal performance of building envelope, minimizing the energy requirements and incorporating solar energy technologies.

Adverse childhood experiences and the health of university students in eight provinces of Vietnam

Recent systematic reviews have emphasized the need for more research into the health and social impacts of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in the Asia-Pacific region. This cross-sectional study was conducted with 2099 young adult students in 8 medical universities throughout Vietnam. An anonymous, self-report questionnaire included the World Health Organization ACE-International Questionnaire and standardized measures of mental and physical health. Three quarters (76%) of the students reported at least one exposure to ACEs; 21% had 4 or more ACEs. The most commonly reported adversities were emotional abuse, physical abuse, and witnessing a household member being treated violently (42.3%, 39.9%, and 34.6%, respectively). Co-occurrence of ACEs had dose–response relationships with poor mental health, suicidal ideation, and low physical health–related quality of life. This first multisite study of ACEs among Vietnamese university students provided evidence that childhood adversity is common and is significantly linked with impaired health and well-being into the early adult years

Domestic reflections, electric reflections: Towards design interventions against everyday energy mundanity in the home

For many years, Human-Computer Interaction and interaction design researchers have been exploring the potential for interactive technologies to encourage sustainable living practices. This paper examines existing literature concerning domestic energy feedback, interlacing past examples of domestic interventions into the discussion. It synthesises recent design research conducted around domestic energy-use and provides a discussion into household circumstances, everyday activities, and the use and role of design. The themes presented are threefold. First, the individual is contrasted to the household collective and in turn calls for the scope and scale of design interventions to be geared towards connection between household members. The second theme questions the everyday, and proposes new avenues of thought when designing for the mundanity of everyday life. Finally, I propose that a design approach which counteracts an affirmative design approach, such as critical design, is an appropriate fit when critiquing and evaluating the mundane, everyday aspects of domestic life.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Acceptability of a rice-based oral rehydration solution in Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department

The guardians of children brought to the Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department with a chief complaint of diarrhoeal disease were questioned regarding their preference of glucose-based vs rice-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) in order to determine the acceptability of a rice-based ORS. Of the 93 guardians interviewed, greater than 60% preferred the glucose-based solution in its mixability, appearance and taste, and 65% initially reported that their children preferred the taste of the glucose solution. However, after a 30-minute trial, only 58% of children still preferred the glucose solution. In a country where diarrhoeal disease is a leading cause of child death and guardians are the primary health care providers, the acceptability of an ORS is critical to the morbidity and mortality of Papua New Guinea's children. Killing an estimated 2.9 million children annually, diarrheal disease is the second leading cause of child mortality worldwide. Diarrheal disease is also the second leading cause of child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), killing an average 193 inpatient children per year over the period 1984-90. However, despite the high level of diarrhea-related mortality and the proven efficacy of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) in managing diarrhea-related dehydration, standardized ORT has been underutilized in PNG. The current glucose-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) does not reduce the frequency or volume of a child's diarrhea, the most immediate concern of caregivers during episodes of illness. Cereal-based ORS, made from cereals which are commonly available as food staples in most countries, better address the short-term concerns of caregivers while offering a superior nutritional profile. A sample of guardians of children brought to the Port Moresby General Hospital's Children's Outpatient Department complaining of child diarrhea were asked about their preferences on glucose-based versus rice-based ORS in order to determine the acceptability of a rice-based ORS. More than 60% of the 93 guardians interviewed preferred the glucose-based solution for its mixability, appearance, and taste. 65% initially reported that their children preferred the taste of the glucose solution. However, after a 30-minute trial, only 58% of children still preferred the glucose solution.

Fostering collaboration in the management of family finances

Managing finances is a practice carried out daily in homes across the world. Despite this, the practice is not yet a strong focus for HCI work in the home. This paper looks specifically at the ways that families organise and manage their finances. Based on a process of in-situ qualitative interviews, we find that money management is often a collaborative process in the family and occurs in a similar way to other household tasks; as part of existing divisions of domestic labour. Participating families reflected upon the creative and often low-tech systems they used to manage their finances and ideas they had for “ideal” technologies that would better help them organise their money. This paper presents ideas for fostering collaboration around family finances. Design propositions are made towards a Family Holiday Expense Tracker and family-situated bill payment reminder, both of which aim to encourage whole-of-family collaboration around money management and better including children in what is, at-present, an activity they are largely excluded from.

Travel behaviours of immigrants in Queensland, Australia

The aim of this research is to determine if there is a significant difference in public transport usage between Australian-born and overseas-born travellers in South East Queensland and identify if further investigation into this demographic factor is necessary. Using the household travel survey data of Southeast Queensland, Australia, this paper analyses the travel behaviours of immigrants and non-immigrants in the region. The immigrant population is divided into six sub-groups based on their continent of origin. The analysis results suggest that immigrants are more likely to use public transit in Brisbane over other regions in the study. Overall, this research strongly suggests that in Australia, a higher proportion of the immigrant population is more likely to use public transit compared to the proportion of the local population.