Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of early detection surveillance for plant pest invasions

Early detection surveillance programs aim to find invasions of exotic plant pests and diseases before they are too widespread to eradicate. However, the value of these programs can be difficult to justify when no positive detections are made. To demonstrate the value of pest absence information provided by these programs, we use a hierarchical Bayesian framework to model estimates of incursion extent with and without surveillance. A model for the latent invasion process provides the baseline against which surveillance data are assessed. Ecological knowledge and pest management criteria are introduced into the model using informative priors for invasion parameters. Observation models assimilate information from spatio-temporal presence/absence data to accommodate imperfect detection and generate posterior estimates of pest extent. When applied to an early detection program operating in Queensland, Australia, the framework demonstrates that this typical surveillance regime provides a modest reduction in the estimate that a surveyed district is infested. More importantly, the model suggests that early detection surveillance programs can provide a dramatic reduction in the putative area of incursion and therefore offer a substantial benefit to incursion management. By mapping spatial estimates of the point probability of infestation, the model identifies where future surveillance resources can be most effectively deployed.

Multicast traffic filtering for sampled value process bus networks

Ethernet is a key component of the standards used for digital process buses in transmission substations, namely IEC 61850 and IEEE Std 1588-2008 (PTPv2). These standards use multicast Ethernet frames that can be processed by more than one device. This presents some significant engineering challenges when implementing a sampled value process bus due to the large amount of network traffic. A system of network traffic segregation using a combination of Virtual LAN (VLAN) and multicast address filtering using managed Ethernet switches is presented. This includes VLAN prioritisation of traffic classes such as the IEC 61850 protocols GOOSE, MMS and sampled values (SV), and other protocols like PTPv2. Multicast address filtering is used to limit SV/GOOSE traffic to defined subsets of subscribers. A method to map substation plant reference designations to multicast address ranges is proposed that enables engineers to determine the type of traffic and location of the source by inspecting the destination address. This method and the proposed filtering strategy simplifies future changes to the prioritisation of network traffic, and is applicable to both process bus and station bus applications.

Identification of a cryptic Prokaryotic promoter within the cDNA encoding the 5′ End of Dengue Virus RNA Genome

Infectious cDNA clones of RNA viruses are important research tools, but flavivirus cDNA clones have proven difficult to assemble and propagate in bacteria. This has been attributed to genetic instability and/or host cell toxicity, however the mechanism leading to these difficulties has not been fully elucidated. Here we identify and characterize an efficient cryptic bacterial promoter in the cDNA encoding the dengue virus (DENV) 5′ UTR. Following cryptic transcription in E. coli, protein expression initiated at a conserved in-frame AUG that is downstream from the authentic DENV initiation codon, yielding a DENV polyprotein fragment that was truncated at the N-terminus. A more complete understanding of constitutive viral protein expression in E. coli might help explain the cloning and propagation difficulties generally observed with flavivirus cDNA.