220 resultados para Modified Delphi method


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Grassland management affects soil organic carbon (SOC) storage and can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, for a country to assess emission reductions due to grassland management, there must be an inventory method for estimating the change in SOC storage. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed a simple carbon accounting approach for this purpose, and here we derive new grassland management factors that represent the effect of changing management on carbon storage for this method. Our literature search identified 49 studies dealing with effects of management practices that either degraded or improved conditions relative to nominally managed grasslands. On average, degradation reduced SOC storage to 95% +/- 0.06 and 97% +/- 0.05 of carbon stored under nominal conditions in temperate and tropical regions, respectively. In contrast, improving grasslands with a single management activity enhanced SOC storage by 14% 0.06 and 17% +/- 0.05 in temperate and tropical regions, respectively, and with an additional improvement(s), storage increased by another 11% +/- 0.04. We applied the newly derived factor coefficients to analyze C sequestration potential for managed grasslands in the U.S., and found that over a 20-year period changing management could sequester from 5 to 142 Tg C yr(-1) or 0.1 to 0.9 Mg C ha(-1) yr(-1), depending on the level of change. This analysis provides revised factor coefficients for the IPCC method that can be used to estimate impacts of management; it also provides a methodological framework for countries to derive factor coefficients specific to conditions in their region.

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An algorithm based on the concept of combining Kalman filter and Least Error Square (LES) techniques is proposed in this paper. The algorithm is intended to estimate signal attributes like amplitude, frequency and phase angle in the online mode. This technique can be used in protection relays, digital AVRs, DGs, DSTATCOMs, FACTS and other power electronics applications. The Kalman filter is modified to operate on a fictitious input signal and provides precise estimation results insensitive to noise and other disturbances. At the same time, the LES system has been arranged to operate in critical transient cases to compensate the delay and inaccuracy identified because of the response of the standard Kalman filter. Practical considerations such as the effect of noise, higher order harmonics, and computational issues of the algorithm are considered and tested in the paper. Several computer simulations and a laboratory test are presented to highlight the usefulness of the proposed method. Simulation results show that the proposed technique can simultaneously estimate the signal attributes, even if it is highly distorted due to the presence of non-linear loads and noise.

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Fractional Fokker-Planck equations (FFPEs) have gained much interest recently for describing transport dynamics in complex systems that are governed by anomalous diffusion and nonexponential relaxation patterns. However, effective numerical methods and analytic techniques for the FFPE are still in their embryonic state. In this paper, we consider a class of time-space fractional Fokker-Planck equations with a nonlinear source term (TSFFPE-NST), which involve the Caputo time fractional derivative (CTFD) of order α ∈ (0, 1) and the symmetric Riesz space fractional derivative (RSFD) of order μ ∈ (1, 2). Approximating the CTFD and RSFD using the L1-algorithm and shifted Grunwald method, respectively, a computationally effective numerical method is presented to solve the TSFFPE-NST. The stability and convergence of the proposed numerical method are investigated. Finally, numerical experiments are carried out to support the theoretical claims.

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This paper outlines a method of constructing narratives about an individual’s self-efficacy. Self-efficacy is defined as “people’s judgments of their capabilities to organise and execute courses of action required to attain designated types of performances” (Bandura, 1986, p. 391), and as such represents a useful construct for thinking about personal agency. Social cognitive theory provides the theoretical framework for understanding the sources of self-efficacy, that is, the elements that contribute to a sense of self-efficacy. The narrative approach adopted offers an alternative to traditional, positivist psychology, characterised by a preoccupation with measuring psychological constructs (like self-efficacy) by means of questionnaires and scales. It is argued that these instruments yield scores which are somewhat removed from the lived experience of the person—respondent or subject—associated with the score. The method involves a cyclical and iterative process using qualitative interviews to collect data from participants – four mature aged university students. The method builds on a three-interview procedure designed for life history research (Dolbeare & Schuman, cited in Seidman, 1998). This is achieved by introducing reflective homework tasks, as well as written data generated by research participants, as they are guided in reflecting on those experiences (including behaviours, cognitions and emotions) that constitute a sense of self-efficacy, in narrative and by narrative. The method illustrates how narrative analysis is used “to produce stories as the outcome of the research” (Polkinghorne, 1995, p.15), with detail and depth contributing to an appreciation of the ‘lived experience’ of the participants. The method is highly collaborative, with narratives co-constructed by researcher and research participants. The research outcomes suggest an enhanced understanding of self-efficacy contributes to motivation, application of effort and persistence in overcoming difficulties. The paper concludes with an evaluation of the research process by the students who participated in the author’s doctoral study.

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In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

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Wireless Multi-media Sensor Networks (WMSNs) have become increasingly popular in recent years, driven in part by the increasing commoditization of small, low-cost CMOS sensors. As such, the challenge of automatically calibrating these types of cameras nodes has become an important research problem, especially for the case when a large quantity of these type of devices are deployed. This paper presents a method for automatically calibrating a wireless camera node with the ability to rotate around one axis. The method involves capturing images as the camera is rotated and computing the homographies between the images. The camera parameters, including focal length, principal point and the angle and axis of rotation can then recovered from two or more homographies. The homography computation algorithm is designed to deal with the limited resources of the wireless sensor and to minimize energy con- sumption. In this paper, a modified RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC) algorithm is proposed to effectively increase the efficiency and reliability of the calibration procedure.

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Proper application of sunscreen is essential as an effective public health strategy for skin cancer prevention. Insufficient application is common among sunbathers, results in decreased sun protection and may therefore lead to increased UV damage of the skin. However, no objective measure of sunscreen application thickness (SAT) is currently available for field-based use. We present a method to detect SAT on human skin for determining the amount of sunscreen applied and thus enabling comparisons to manufacturer recommendations. Using a skin swabbing method and subsequent spectrophotometric analysis, we were able to determine SAT on human skin. A swabbing method was used to derive SAT on skin (in mg sunscreen per cm2 of skin area) through the concentration–absorption relationship of sunscreen determined in laboratory experiments. Analysis differentiated SATs between 0.25 and 4 mg cm−2 and showed a small but significant decrease in concentration over time postapplication. A field study was performed, in which the heterogeneity of sunscreen application could be investigated. The proposed method is a low cost, noninvasive method for the determination of SAT on skin and it can be used as a valid tool in field- and population-based studies.

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Extensive groundwater withdrawal has resulted in a severe seawater intrusion problem in the Gooburrum aquifers at Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia. Better management strategies can be implemented by understanding the seawater intrusion processes in those aquifers. To study the seawater intrusion process in the region, a two-dimensional density-dependent, saturated and unsaturated flow and transport computational model is used. The model consists of a coupled system of two non-linear partial differential equations. The first equation describes the flow of a variable-density fluid, and the second equation describes the transport of dissolved salt. A two-dimensional control volume finite element model is developed for simulating the seawater intrusion into the heterogeneous aquifer system at Gooburrum. The simulation results provide a realistic mechanism by which to study the convoluted transport phenomena evolving in this complex heterogeneous coastal aquifer.

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This study investigates the application of local search methods on the railway junction traffic conflict-resolution problem, with the objective of attaining a quick and reasonable solution. A procedure based on local search relies on finding a better solution than the current one by a search in the neighbourhood of the current one. The structure of neighbourhood is therefore very important to an efficient local search procedure. In this paper, the formulation of the structure of the solution, which is the right-of-way sequence assignment, is first described. Two new neighbourhood definitions are then proposed and the performance of the corresponding local search procedures is evaluated by simulation. It has been shown that they provide similar results but they can be used to handle different traffic conditions and system requirements.

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There is a need for educational frameworks for computer ethics education. This discussion paper presents an approach to developing students’ moral sensitivity, an awareness of morally relevant issues, in project-based learning (PjBL). The proposed approach is based on a study of IT professionals’ levels of awareness of ethics. These levels are labelled My world, The corporate world, A shared world, The client’s world and The wider world. We give recommendations for how instructors may stimulate students’ thinking with the levels and how the levels may be taken into account in managing a project course and in an IS department. Limitations of the recommendations are assessed and issues for discussion are raised.