'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Multinational contracting into Australia: Developing Dunning's theory and case study design

In response to the need to leverage private finance and the lack of competition in some parts of the Australian public sector infrastructure market, the Australian Federal government has demonstrated its desire to attract new sources of in-bound foreign direct investment (FDI) by multinational contractors. This study aims to update progress towards an investigation into the determinants of multinational contractors’ willingness to bid for Australian public sector major road and bridges. This research deploys Dunning’s eclectic theory for the first time in terms of in-bound FDI by multinational contractors into Australia. Elsewhere, the authors have developed Dunning’s principal hypothesis to suit the context of this research and to address a weakness arising in this hypothesis that is based on a nominal (yes or no) approach to the ownership, location and internalisation factors in Dunning's eclectic framework and which fails to speak to the relative explanatory power of these factors. The authors have completed a first stage test of this development of Dunning's hypothesis based on publically available secondary data, in which it was concluded tentatively that the location factor appears to have the greatest explanatory power. This paper aims to present, for the first time, a further and novel development of the operation of Dunning's eclectic paradigm within the context of multinational contracting, as well as a preview of the design and planned analysis of the next empirical stage in this research concerning case studies. Finally, and beyond the theoretical contributions expected, other expected contributions are mentioned concerning research method and practical implications.

Revised reinforcement sensitivity theory : the impact of FFFS and stress on driving

This study investigated the effect of a fear-based personality trait, as conceptualised in Gray’s revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST) by the strength of the fight/flight/freeze system (FFFS), on young people’s driving simulator performance under induced psychosocial stress. Seventy-one young drivers completed the Jackson-5 questionnaire of RST traits, followed by a psychosocial stress or relaxation induction procedure (random allocation to groups) and then a city driving simulator task. Some support was found for the hypothesis that higher FFFS sensitivity would result in poorer driving performance under stress, in terms of significantly poorer hazard responses, possibly due to an increased attentional focus on the aversive cues inherent in the stress induction leaving reduced attentional capacity for the driving task. These results suggest that stress may lead to riskier driving behaviour in individuals with fearful RST personality styles.

Assessing efficiency of a transit oriented development by comparative analysis

TOD: - A fully planned, mixed use development equipped with good quality transit service and infrastructure for walking and cycling Hypothesis: -TOD will help to reduce urban transport congestion Method: -Comparison of a TOD with non TOD urban environments -Residents’ trip characteristics

Growth-hormone-stimulated dentinogenesis in Lewis dwarf rat molars

In dentinogenesis, certain growth factors, matrix proteoglycans, and proteins are directly or indirectly dependent on growth hormone. The hypothesis that growth hormone up-regulates the expression of enzymes, sialoproteins, and other extracellular matrix proteins implicated in the formation and mineralization of tooth and bone matrices was tested by the treatment of Lewis dwarf rats with growth hormone over 5 days. The molar teeth were processed for immunohistochemical demonstration of bone-alkaline phosphatase, bone morphogenetic proteins-2 and -4, osteocalcin, osteopontin, bone sialoprotein, and E11 protein. Odontoblasts responded to growth hormone by more cells expressing bone morphogenetic protein, alkaline phosphatase, osteocalcin, and osteopontin. No changes were found in bone sialoprotein or E11 protein expression. Thus, growth hormone may stimulate odontoblasts to express several growth factors and matrix proteins associated with dentin matrix biosynthesis in mature rat molars.

Tax morale, Eastern Europe and European enlargement

This study tries to remedy the current lack of tax compliance research analyzing tax morale in 10 Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004 or 2007. By exploring tax morale differences between 1999 and 2008 we show that tax morale has decreased in 7 out of 10 Eastern European countries. This lack of sustainability may support the incentive based conditionality hypothesis that European Union has only a limited ability to influence tax morale over time. We observe that events and processes at the country level are crucial to understanding tax morale. Factors such as perceived government quality, trust in the justice system and the government are positively correlated with tax morale in 2008.

Visual sensitivity loss in the central thirty degrees of visual field is associated with diabetic peripheral neuropathy

Aims/hypothesis: Impaired central vision has been shown to predict diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN). Several studies have demonstrated diffuse retinal neurodegenerative changes in diabetic patients prior to retinopathy development, raising the prospect that non-central vision may also be compromised by primary neural damage. We hypothesise that type 2 diabetic patients with DPN exhibit visual sensitivity loss in a distinctive pattern across the visual field, compared with a control group of type 2 diabetic patients without DPN. Methods: Increment light sensitivity was measured by standard perimetry in the central 30 degree of visual field for two age-matched groups of type 2 diabetic patients, with and without neuropathy (n=40/30). Neuropathy status was assigned using the neuropathy disability score. Mean visual sensitivity values were calculated globally, for each quadrant and for three eccentricities (0-10 degree , 11-20 degree and 21-30 degree ). Data were analysed using a generalised additive mixed model (GAMM). Results: Global and quadrant between-group visual sensitivity mean differences were marginally but consistently lower (by about 1 dB) in the neuropathy cohort compared with controls. Between-group mean differences increased from 0.36 to 1.81 dB with increasing eccentricity. GAMM analysis, after adjustment for age, showed these differences to be significant beyond 15 degree eccentricity and monotonically increasing. Retinopathy levels and disease duration were not significant factors within the model (p=0.90). Conclusions/interpretation: Visual sensitivity reduces disproportionately with increasing eccentricity in type 2 diabetic patients with peripheral neuropathy. This sensitivity reduction within the central 30 degree of visual field may be indicative of more consequential loss in the far periphery.

Performance evaluation of onsite wastewater treatment : field sampling and preliminary evaluation of results

Background The onsite treatment of sewage and effluent disposal within the premises is widely prevalent in rural and urban fringe areas due to the general unavailability of reticulated wastewater collection systems. Despite the seemingly low technology of the systems, failure is common and in many cases leading to adverse public health and environmental consequences. Therefore it is important that careful consideration is given to the design and location of onsite sewage treatment systems. It requires an understanding of the factors that influence treatment performance. The use of subsurface effluent absorption systems is the most common form of effluent disposal for onsite sewage treatment and particularly for septic tanks. Additionally in the case of septic tanks, a subsurface disposal system is generally an integral component of the sewage treatment process. Therefore location specific factors will play a key role in this context. The project The primary aims of the research project are: • to relate treatment performance of onsite sewage treatment systems to soil conditions at site; • to identify important areas where there is currently a lack of relevant research knowledge and is in need of further investigation. These tasks were undertaken with the objective of facilitating the development of performance based planning and management strategies for onsite sewage treatment. The primary focus of the research project has been on septic tanks. Therefore by implication the investigation has been confined to subsurface soil absorption systems. The design and treatment processes taking place within the septic tank chamber itself did not form a part of the investigation. In the evaluation to be undertaken, the treatment performance of soil absorption systems will be related to the physico-chemical characteristics of the soil. Five broad categories of soil types have been considered for this purpose. The number of systems investigated was based on the proportionate area of urban development within the Brisbane region located on each soil types. In the initial phase of the investigation, though the majority of the systems evaluated were septic tanks, a small number of aerobic wastewater treatment systems (AWTS) were also included. This was primarily to compare the effluent quality of systems employing different generic treatment processes. It is important to note that the number of different types of systems investigated was relatively small. As such this does not permit a statistical analysis to be undertaken of the results obtained. This is an important issue considering the large number of parameters that can influence treatment performance and their wide variability. The report This report is the second in a series of three reports focussing on the performance evaluation of onsite treatment of sewage. The research project was initiated at the request of the Brisbane City Council. The work undertaken included site investigation and testing of sewage effluent and soil samples taken at distances of 1 and 3 m from the effluent disposal area. The project component discussed in the current report formed the basis for the more detailed investigation undertaken subsequently. The outcomes from the initial studies have been discussed, which enabled the identification of factors to be investigated further. Primarily, this report contains the results of the field monitoring program, the initial analysis undertaken and preliminary conclusions. Field study and outcomes Initially commencing with a list of 252 locations in 17 different suburbs, a total of 22 sites in 21 different locations were monitored. These sites were selected based on predetermined criteria. To obtain house owner agreement to participate in the monitoring study was not an easy task. Six of these sites had to be abandoned subsequently due to various reasons. The remaining sites included eight septic systems with subsurface effluent disposal and treating blackwater or combined black and greywater, two sites treating greywater only and six sites with AWTS. In addition to collecting effluent and soil samples from each site, a detailed field investigation including a series of house owner interviews were also undertaken. Significant observations were made during the field investigations. In addition to site specific observations, the general observations include the following: • Most house owners are unaware of the need for regular maintenance. Sludge removal has not been undertaken in any of the septic tanks monitored. Even in the case of aerated wastewater treatment systems, the regular inspections by the supplier is confined only to the treatment system and does not include the effluent disposal system. This is not a satisfactory situation as the investigations revealed. • In the case of separate greywater systems, only one site had a suitably functioning disposal arrangement. The general practice is to employ a garden hose to siphon the greywater for use in surface irrigation of the garden. • In most sites, the soil profile showed significant lateral percolation of effluent. As such, the flow of effluent to surface water bodies is a distinct possibility. • The need to investigate the subsurface condition to a depth greater than what is required for the standard percolation test was clearly evident. On occasion, seemingly permeable soil was found to have an underlying impermeable soil layer or vice versa. The important outcomes from the testing program include the following: • Though effluent treatment is influenced by the physico-chemical characteristics of the soil, it was not possible to distinguish between the treatment performance of different soil types. This leads to the hypothesis that effluent renovation is significantly influenced by the combination of various physico-chemical parameters rather than single parameters. This would make the processes involved strongly site specific. • Generally the improvement in effluent quality appears to take place only within the initial 1 m of travel and without any appreciable improvement thereafter. This relates only to the degree of improvement obtained and does not imply that this quality is satisfactory. This calls into question the value of adopting setback distances from sensitive water bodies. • Use of AWTS for sewage treatment may provide effluent of higher quality suitable for surface disposal. However on the whole, after a 1-3 m of travel through the subsurface, it was not possible to distinguish any significant differences in quality between those originating from septic tanks and AWTS. • In comparison with effluent quality from a conventional wastewater treatment plant, most systems were found to perform satisfactorily with regards to Total Nitrogen. The success rate was much lower in the case of faecal coliforms. However it is important to note that five of the systems exhibited problems with regards to effluent disposal, resulting in surface flow. This could lead to possible contamination of surface water courses. • The ratio of TDS to EC is about 0.42 whilst the optimum recommended value for use of treated effluent for irrigation should be about 0.64. This would mean a higher salt content in the effluent than what is advisable for use in irrigation. A consequence of this would be the accumulation of salts to a concentration harmful to crops or the landscape unless adequate leaching is present. These relatively high EC values are present even in the case of AWTS where surface irrigation of effluent is being undertaken. However it is important to note that this is not an artefact of the treatment process but rather an indication of the quality of the wastewater generated in the household. This clearly indicates the need for further research to evaluate the suitability of various soil types for the surface irrigation of effluent where the TDS/EC ratio is less than 0.64. • Effluent percolating through the subsurface absorption field may travel in the form of dilute pulses. As such the effluent will move through the soil profile forming fronts of elevated parameter levels. • The downward flow of effluent and leaching of the soil profile is evident in the case of podsolic, lithosol and kransozem soils. Lateral flow of effluent is evident in the case of prairie soils. Gleyed podsolic soils indicate poor drainage and ponding of effluent. In the current phase of the research project, a number of chemical indicators such as EC, pH and chloride concentration were employed as indicators to investigate the extent of effluent flow and to understand how soil renovates effluent. The soil profile, especially texture, structure and moisture regime was examined more in an engineering sense to determine the effect of movement of water into and through the soil. However it is not only the physical characteristics, but the chemical characteristics of the soil also play a key role in the effluent renovation process. Therefore in order to understand the complex processes taking place in a subsurface effluent disposal area, it is important that the identified influential parameters are evaluated using soil chemical concepts. Consequently the primary focus of the next phase of the research project will be to identify linkages between various important parameters. The research thus envisaged will help to develop robust criteria for evaluating the performance of subsurface disposal systems.

Investigation of indoor and outdoor particle concentrations in Brisbane houses after the 2011 flood disaster

Many Brisbane houses were affected by water inundation as a result of the flooding event which occurred in January 2011. The combination of waterlogged materials and large amounts of silt and organic debris in affected homes gave rise to a situation where exposures to airborne particles could potentially be elevated. However, swift action to remove wet materials and dry out the building structures can help to reduce moisture and humidity in flooded houses, in an effort to prevent the growth of bacteria and mould and improve indoor air quality in and around flooded areas. To test this hypothesis, field measurements were carried out during 21 March and 3 May, 2011.

Larger or broader : performance implications of size and diversity of the knowledge worker's egocentric network. [更多或更广：知识员工个人中心网络大小和 多样性对绩效的影响]

Management scholars and practitioners emphasize the importance of the size and diversity of a knowledge worker's social network. Constraints on knowledge workers’ time and energy suggest that more is not always better. Further, why and how larger networks contribute to valuable outcomes deserves further understanding. In this study, we offer hypotheses to shed insight on the question of the diminishing returns of large networks and the specific form of network diversity that may contribute to innovative performance among knowledge workers. We tested our hypotheses using data collected from 93 R&D engineers in a Sino-German automobile electronics company located in China. Study findings identified an inflection point, confirming our hypothesis that the size of the knowledge worker's egocentric network has an inverted U-shaped effect on job performance. We further demonstrate that network dispersion richness (the number of cohorts that the focal employee has connections to) rather than network dispersion evenness (equal distribution of ties across the cohorts) has more influence on the knowledge worker's job performance. Additionally, we found that the curvilinear effect of network size is fully mediated by network dispersion richness. Implications for future research on social networks in China and Western contexts are discussed.

The effect of exercise on sleep quality in heart failure

Purpose The primary objective of this study was to examine the effect of exercise on subjective sleep quality in heart failure patients. Methods This study used a randomised, controlled trial design with blinded end-point analysis. Participants were randomly assigned to a 12-week programme of education and self-management support (control) or to the same programme with the addition of a tailored physical activity programme designed and supervised by an exercise specialist (intervention). The intervention consisted of 1 hour of aerobic and resistance exercise twice a week. Participants included 108 patients referred to three hospital heart failure services in Queensland, Australia. Results Patients who participated in supervised exercise classes showed significant improvement in subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep disturbance and global sleep quality scores after 12 weeks of supervised hospital based exercise. Secondary analysis showed that improvements in sleep quality were correlated with improvements in geriatric depression score (p=0.00) and exercise performance (p=0.03). General linear models were used to examine whether the changes in sleep quality following intervention occurred independently of changes in depression, exercise performance and weight. Separate models adjusting for each covariate were performed. Results suggest that exercise significantly improved sleep quality independent of changes in depression, exercise performance and weight. Conclusion This study supports the hypothesis that a 12 week program of aerobic and resistance exercise improves subjective sleep quality in patients with heart failure. This is the first randomised controlled trial to examine the role of exercise in the improvement of sleep quality for patients with this disease. While this study establishes exercise as a therapy for poor sleep quality, further research is needed to investigate exercise as a treatment for other parameters of sleep in this population. Study investigators plan to undertake a more in-depth examination within the next 12 months

Evidence for a dual function of EphB4 as tumor promoter and suppressor regulated by the absence or presence of the ephrin-B2 ligand

Overexpression of the receptor tyrosine kinase EphB4 is common in epithelial cancers and linked to tumor progression by promoting angiogenesis, increasing survival and facilitating invasion and migration. However, other studies have reported loss of EphB4 suggesting a tumor suppressor function in some cancers. These opposing roles may be regulated by (i) the presence of the primary ligand ephrin-B2 that regulates pathways involved in tumor suppression or (ii) the absence of ephrin-B2 that allows EphB4 signaling via ligand-independent pathways that contribute to tumor promotion. To explore this theory, EphB4 was overexpressed in the prostate cancer cell line 22Rv1 and the mammary epithelial cell line MCF-10A. Overexpressed EphB4 localized to lipid-rich regions of the plasma membrane and confirmed to be ligand-responsive as demonstrated by increased phosphorylation of ERK1/2 and internalization. EphB4 overexpressing cells demonstrated enhanced anchorage-independent growth, migration and invasion, all characteristics associated with an aggressive phenotype, and therefore supporting the hypothesis that overexpressed EphB4 facilitates tumor promotion. Importantly, these effects were reversed in the presence of ephrin-B2 which led to a reduction in EphB4 protein levels, demonstrating that ligand-dependent signaling is tumor suppressive. Furthermore, extended ligand stimulation caused a significant decrease in proliferation that correlated with a rise in caspase-3/7 and -8 activities. Together, these results demonstrate that overexpression of EphB4 confers a transformed phenotype in the case of MCF-10A cells and an increased metastatic phenotype in the case of 22Rv1 cancer cells and that both phenotypes can be restrained by stimulation with ephrin-B2, in part by reducing EphB4 levels.

Experimental evidence indicating that mastreviruses probably did not co-diverge with their hosts

Background. Despite the demonstration that geminiviruses, like many other single stranded DNA viruses, are evolving at rates similar to those of RNA viruses, a recent study has suggested that grass-infecting species in the genus Mastrevirus may have co-diverged with their hosts over millions of years. This "co-divergence hypothesis" requires that long-term mastrevirus substitution rates be at least 100,000-fold lower than their basal mutation rates and 10,000-fold lower than their observable short-term substitution rates. The credibility of this hypothesis, therefore, hinges on the testable claim that negative selection during mastrevirus evolution is so potent that it effectively purges 99.999% of all mutations that occur. Results. We have conducted long-term evolution experiments lasting between 6 and 32 years, where we have determined substitution rates of between 2 and 3 × 10 -4substitutions/site/year for the mastreviruses Maize streak virus (MSV) and Sugarcane streak Réunion virus (SSRV). We further show that mutation biases are similar for different geminivirus genera, suggesting that mutational processes that drive high basal mutation rates are conserved across the family. Rather than displaying signs of extremely severe negative selection as implied by the co-divergence hypothesis, our evolution experiments indicate that MSV and SSRV are predominantly evolving under neutral genetic drift. Conclusion. The absence of strong negative selection signals within our evolution experiments and the uniformly high geminivirus substitution rates that we and others have reported suggest that mastreviruses cannot have co-diverged with their hosts. © 2009 Harkins et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The capsid protein of beak and feather disease virus binds to the viral DNA and is responsible for transporting the replication-associated protein into the nucleus

Circoviruses lack an autonomous DNA polymerase and are dependent on the replication machinery of the host cell for de novo DNA synthesis. Accordingly, the viral DNA needs to cross both the plasma membrane and the nuclear envelope before replication can occur. Here we report on the subcellular distribution of the beak and feather disease virus (BFDV) capsid protein (CP) and replication-associated protein (Rep) expressed via recombinant baculoviruses in an insect cell system and test the hypothesis that the CP is responsible for transporting the viral genome, as well as Rep, across the nuclear envelope. The intracellular localization of the BFDV CP was found to be directed by three partially overlapping bipartite nuclear localization signals (NLSs) situated between residues 16 and 56 at the N terminus of the protein. Moreover, a DNA binding region was also mapped to the N terminus of the protein and falls within the region containing the three putative NLSs. The ability of CP to bind DNA, coupled with the karyophilic nature of this protein, strongly suggests that it may be responsible for nuclear targeting of the viral genome. Interestingly, whereas Rep expressed on its own in insect cells is restricted to the cytoplasm, coexpression with CP alters the subcellular localization of Rep to the nucleus, strongly suggesting that an interaction with CP facilitates movement of Rep into the nucleus. Copyright © 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Identification of long intergenic region sequences involved in maize streak virus replication

The main cis-acting control regions for replication of the single-stranded DNA genome of maize streak virus (MSV) are believed to reside within an approximately 310 nt long intergenic region (LIR). However, neither the minimum LIR sequence required nor the sequence determinants of replication specificity have been determined experimentally. There are iterated sequences, or iterons, both within the conserved inverted-repeat sequences with the potential to form a stem-loop structure at the origin of virion-strand replication, and upstream of the rep gene TATA box (the rep-proximal iteron or RPI). Based on experimental analyses of similar iterons in viruses from other geminivirus genera and their proximity to known Rep-binding sites in the distantly related mastrevirus wheat dwarf virus, it has been hypothesized that the iterons may be Rep-binding and/or -recognition sequences. Here, a series of LIR deletion mutants was used to define the upper bounds of the LIR sequence required for replication. After identifying MSV strains and distinct mastreviruses with incompatible replication-specificity determinants (RSDs), LIR chimaeras were used to map the primary MSV RSD to a 67 nt sequence containing the RPI. Although the results generally support the prevailing hypothesis that MSV iterons are functional analogues of those found in other geminivirus genera, it is demonstrated that neither the inverted-repeat nor RPI sequences are absolute determinants of replication specificity. Moreover, widely divergent mastreviruses can trans-replicate one another. These results also suggest that sequences in the 67 nt region surrounding the RPI interact in a sequence-specific manner with those of the inverted repeat.